%0 Journal Article %J Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %D 2018 %T An agent-based model of tsetse fly response to seasonal climatic drivers: assessing the impact on sleeping sickness transmission rates. %A Alderton, Simon %A MacLeod, Ewan T. %A Anderson, Neil E. %A Palmer, Gwen %A Machila, Noreen %A Simuunza, Martin %A Welburn, Susan C. %A Atkinson, Peter M. %X This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to incorporate climatic drivers which affect tsetse fly (G. m. morsitans) population dynamics, and ultimately disease transmission. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how tsetse populations fluctuate seasonally, and investigate any response observed in Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission, with a view to gaining a greater understanding of disease dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for the development of appropriate, well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future. The ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model incorporates climatic factors that affect pupal mortality, pupal development, birth rate, and death rate. In combination with fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender for the human population in the region, as well as an animal census and a sample of daily routines, we create a detailed, plausible simulation model to explore tsetse population and disease transmission dynamics. The seasonally-driven model suggests that the number of infections reported annually in the simulation is likely to be a reasonable representation of reality, taking into account the high levels of under-detection observed. Similar infection rates were observed in human (0.355 per 1000 person-years (SE = 0.013)), and cattle (0.281 per 1000 cattle-years (SE = 0.025)) populations, likely due to the sparsity of cattle close to the tsetse interface. The model suggests that immigrant tribes and school children are at greatest risk of infection, a result that derives from the bottom-up nature of the ABM and conditioning on multiple constraints. This result could not be inferred using alternative population-level modelling approaches. In producing a model which models the tsetse population at a very fine resolution, we were able to analyse and evaluate specific elements of the output, such as pupal development and the progression of the teneral population, allowing the development of our understanding of the tsetse population as a whole. This is an important step in the production of a more accurate transmission model for rHAT which can, in turn, help us to gain a greater understanding of the transmission system as a whole. %B Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %V 12 %P e0006188 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000427279700008 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006188 %M 1935-2727 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation %D 2018 %T Agent-based modelling to assess community food security and sustainable livelihoods %A Samantha Dobbie %A Kate Schreckenberg %A James G. Dyke %A Marije Schaafsma %A Stefano Balbi %X

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodological approach to enable the construction of agent-based models of community food security in developing country contexts where regional (sub-national) data sets are available. Measurement of food security has tended to concentrate on either entire nations or individual households (Carletto et al. 2013; Pinstrup-Andersen 2009). However, rights-based approaches have prompted a renewed interest in community food security, an evolving concept that advocates long-term systemic approaches to address food insecurity in an equitable and sustainable manner (Jarosz 2014). Community food security can be defined as “a situation in which all community residents obtain a safe, culturally acceptable, nutritionally adequate diet through a sustainable food system that maximizes self-reliance and social justice” (Hamm & Bellows 2003, p. 37). It differs from household or national food security, as it emphasises the complex nature of food systems, which are embedded within dynamic social, ecological and economic processes (Kaiser 2011; Thompson & Scoones 2009). Community food security pays attention to interactions between system components such as households, institutions and the environment and the emergence of diverse food systems and food security outcomes (Hamm & Bellows 2003; McCullum et al. 2005). We present a methodological approach for constructing an agent-based model to assess community food security and variation among livelihood trajectories, using rural Malawi as a case study. The approach integrates both quantitative and qualitative data to explore how interactions between households and the environment lead to the emergence of community food availability, access, utilisation and stability over time. Results suggest that livelihoods based upon either non-agricultural work or farming are most stable over time, but agricultural labourers, dependent upon the availability of casual work, demonstrate limited capacity to ‘step-up’ livelihood activities. The scenario results suggest that population growth and increased rainfall variability are linked to significant declines in food utilisation and stability by 2050. Taking a systems approach may help to enhance the sustainability of livelihoods, target efforts and promote community food security. We discuss transferability of the methodological approach to other case studies and scenarios.

%B Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation %V 21 %8 %G eng %K http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/9.html %N 1 %1 NE/J002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %+ Yes %0 Journal Article %D 2018 %T Biofuels in Malawi: local impacts of feedstock production and policy implications %A Gondwe, Tennesson %A Gasparatos, Alexandros %A Johnson, Francis X. %A von Maltitz, Graham %A Luhanga, Davies %A Nyambane, Anne %X

Poverty alleviation and food security outcomes for those involved in the sugarcane sector vary but appear largely positive. Land use conversion for sugarcane production can have positive or negative environmental impacts. Policy-makers need to evaluate trade-offs across the different socioeconomic and environmental impacts to guide decisions that affect sugarcane development plans. Jatropha production has minimal impact on food security and poverty alleviation, whether positive or negative. The low impact of jatropha is unlikely to change unless high-yielding jatropha varieties are tested in real conditions and market options improve. Untested biofuel crops such as jatropha should not be promoted by government, NGOs and the private sector, until sufficient data is available on yields, production costs and market value/demand. Due to their potential role in global climate change mitigation, biofuel crops have more complex trade-offs compared to other largescale land-based development options. However, socioeconomic and environmental trade-offs at the local and national level will tend to be similar to other industrial crops. Before promoting particular biofuel crops and development strategies, policy-makers need to weigh the expected benefits and costs for the short-term and long-term at local and national levels, in relation to their national environment and development goals andinternational commitments. There is a great potential for bioethanol to be used in the household sector as a cooking fuel, but the price has to be competitive with existing energy alternatives. This might be accomplished through regulating the charcoal sector and providing tax incentives to bioethanol producers and users.

%G eng %K https://www.espa.ac.uk/files/espa/Biofuels%20in%20Malawi_Local%20impacts.pdf# %1 espa/rof/2016-17/04 %2 espa-rof-2016-17-04 %6 Regional Opportunity Fund %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Report %D 2018 %T Challenging common myths in protected area management %A Emily Woodhouse %A Clare Bedelian %X

Protected areas remain a cornerstone of efforts to conserve biodiversity and ecosystems globally. They are rapidly increasing in size and number. Aichi biodiversity target 11 of the Convention on Biological Diversity calls for 17% of terrestrial and inland water areas and 10% of coastal and marine areas to be protected by 2020.

​Key messages of this policy brief are:


 

 

 

​Image: Mursi tribe, Ethiopia, credit R. Waddington

 

 

%G eng %1 NE/P008097/1 %2 ne-p008097-1 %0 Journal Article %J Acta Paedriatrica %D 2018 %T Children living in the slums of Bangladesh face risks from unsafe food and water and stunted growth is common %A Mostafa, Ishita %A Naila, Nurun N %A Mahfuz, Mustafa %A Roy, Manoj %A Faruque, Abu S.G. %A Ahmed, Tahmeed %X

Aim: This study investigated the microbial quality of food and water consumed by childrenin four slums in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, together with the associated risk factors. Methods: This cross-sectional study took place from December 2015 to May 2016 andfocused on 360 children under the age of five. We recorded household food security,namely adequate food for a healthy life, socio-economic and nutritional status, hygiene andfeeding practices. Food and water samples were analysed. Results: We found that 63% of the children were malnourished and 58% were stunted. Yeast and moulds were detected in 86% of the food samples and coliforms in 73%. All the water samples were contaminated with faecal coliforms, yeasts and moulds andStaphylococcus. Food insecurity affected 83% of households. Children were twice as likely to be malnourished if they were born with a perceived low birthweight or their mothers did not wash their hands with soap after cleaning the child’s bottom following defecation. Exclusively breastfed children were less likely to develop malnutrition. Conclusion: Children from the Dhaka slums were frequently stunted and malnourishedand contaminated food and water was common. Integrated efforts are essential to createpublic awareness about hygiene.

%B Acta Paedriatrica %G eng %1 ne/l001616/1 %2 ne-l001616-1 %4 Bangladesh; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/apa.14281 %0 Journal Article %J Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water %D 2018 %T Citizen science for hydrological risk reduction and resilience building %A Paul, Jonathan D. %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Allen, Simon %A Ballesteros-Canovas, Juan A. %A Bhusal, Jagat %A Cieslik, Katarzyna %A Clark, Julian %A Dugar, Sumit %A Hannah, David M. %A Stoffel, Markus %A Dewulf, Art %A Dhital, Megh R. %A Liu, Wei %A Nayaval, Janak Lal %A Neupane, Bhanu %A Schiller, Arnulf %A Smith, Paul J. %A Supper, Robert %X In disaster risk management (DRM), an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessmentstoward more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Arguably, nonscientist local stakeholders have always played animportant role in knowledge risk management and resilience building within ahydrological context, such asflood response and drought alleviation. However, rap-idly developing information and communication technologies such as the Internet,smartphones, and social mediahave already demonstrated their sizeable potential tomake knowledge creation more multidirectional, decentralized, diverse, and inclusive.Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a‘citizen sci-ence’approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision ofextensive, real-time information for risk management. Such projects work best whenthere is community buy-in, when their purpose(s) are clearly defined at the outset,and when the motivations and skillsets of allparticipants and stakeholders are wellunderstood. They have great potential to enhance knowledge creation, not only fordata collection, but also for analysis or interpretation. In addition, they can serve as ameans of educating and empowering communities and stakeholders that arebypassed by more traditional knowledge generation processes. Here, we review thestate-of-the-art of citizen science within the context of hydrological risk reduction andresilience building. Particularly when embedded within a polycentric approachtoward risk governance, we argue that citizen science could complement more tradi-tional knowledge generation practices, and also enhance innovation, adaptation, mul-tidirectional information provision, riskmanagement, and local resilience building. %B Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water %I WILEY %V 5 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000418147500011 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/wat2.1262 %M 2049-1948 %0 Journal Article %J Landscape and urban planning %D 2018 %T Climate change and declining levels of green structures: Life in informal settlements of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania %A Roy, Manoj %A Shemdoe, Riziki %A Hulme, David %A Mwageni, Nicholaus %A Gough, Alex %X Impacts of climate change are often acute for those who live in informal settlements, the places where poverty, inequality and deprivation are concentrated in cities across the developing world. To broaden the strategies to address this issue, many cities are now embracing ecosystem-based adaptation and resilience. But, in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the approach is yet to make much headway. This paper examines how climate change impacts on poor urban people via one component of urban ecosystem - urban green structures (UGS) - in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. It examines: the UGS of importance to the city's informal dwellers and the range of derived services; changes over time to these UGS and derived services; and emerging adaptation practices. Using qualitative methods, the study has three key findings. First, cultural ecosystem services are of greatest importance to informal dwellers, although they do harness a range of other services. Second, the city's UGS have undergone dramatic changes due to both climatic and non-climatic factors. This has resulted in a gradual decline in the quantity and quality of UGS-derived services for the urban poor. Third, in responding to these changes, informal settlement dwellers have relied mostly on their personal, and sometimes on their collective, resources and capabilities. There are some innovative practices that draw on external institutions, but access to external support for informal communities has remained consistently low. City authorities should approach and plan greening ‘for’ (not ‘in’) informal settlements as a targeted environmental improvement endeavour – referred to here as ‘creative urban planning’. %B Landscape and urban planning %G eng %1 ne/l001616/1 %2 ne-l001616-1 %4 Bangladesh; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.11.011 %0 Journal Article %J Water %D 2018 %T Do as they did: peer effects explain adoption of conservation agriculture in Malawi %A Bell, Andrew Reid %A Zavaleta Cheek, Jennifer %A Mataya, Frazer %A Ward, Patrick S. %X Adoption of the trinity of practices known commonly today as conservation agriculture (CA)—maintaining soil cover, reducing tillage, and enhancing soil nitrogen through legumes—is a critical process to the management of erosion in rural landscapes, and maintenance of aquatic habitats and hydropower potential. However, the large literature on the benefits and risks of CA fails to find any universal determinants of adoption, with competing uses for crop residues, availability of labor, and access to physical inputs common constraints appearing in different contexts. We conduct a study in the specific context of Malawi, using ethnographic interviewing to draw out possible decision criteria and machine learning to identify their explanatory power. This study is structured to inform the question: “How do farmers decide to adopt the specific activities of CA in Malawi?” We find that more than any other factor, adoption by neighbors (i.e., peer effects) matters, with possible implications for the overall cost of encouraging CA (e.g., through subsidies) as it is taken up across a landscape. Further, we note that little else within our household survey (save for more detailed articulation of neighbor and neighborhood characteristics) offers greater explanatory power than those factors identified by farmers themselves. Finally, we note that decisions made in the presence of an incentive are structurally different than those made without incentives, validating previous concerns in the literature regarding the basis most CA adoption studies, within CA promotion interventions. %B Water %G eng %1 ne/l001624/1 %2 ne-l001624-1 %4 Malawi %# 000424397400049 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3390/w10010051 %0 Journal Article %J Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene %D 2018 %T Drinking water salinity associated health crisis in coastal Bangladesh %A Mahin Al Nahian %A Ali Ahmed %A Attila N. Lazar %A Craig W. Hutton %A Mashfiqus Salehin %A Peter Kim Streatfield %X
Salinity intrusion in coastal Bangladesh has serious population health implications, which are yet to be clearly understood. The study was undertaken through the ‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation in Populous Deltas’ project in coastal Bangladesh. Drinking water salinity and blood pressure measurements were carried out during the household survey campaign. The study explored association among Socio-Ecological Systems (SESs), drinking water salinity and blood pressure.
 
High blood pressure (prehypertension and hypertension) was found significantly associated with drinking water salinity. People exposed to slightly saline (1000–2000 mg/l) and moderately saline (≥2000 mg/l) concentration drinking water had respectively 17% (p < 0.1) and 42% (p < 0.05) higher chance of being hypertensive than those who consumed fresh water (<1000 mg/l). Women had 31% higher chance of being hypertensive than men. Also, respondents of 35 years and above were about 2.4 times more likely to be hypertensive compared to below 35 years age group. For the 35 years and above age group, both prehypertension and hypertension were found higher than national rural statistics (50.1%) for saline water categories (53.8% for slightly and 62.5% for moderate saline). For moderate salinity exposure, hypertension prevalence was found respectively 21%, 60% and 48% higher than national statistics (23.6%) in consecutive survey rounds among the respondents. Though there was small seasonal variation in drinking water salinity, however blood pressure showed an increasing trend and maximum during the dry season. Mean salinity and associated hypertension prevalence were found higher for deep aquifer (21.6%) compared to shallow aquifer (20.8%).
 
Localized increase in soil and groundwater salinity was predicted over the study area. Shallow aquifer salinity increase was projected based on modelled output of soil salinity. Rather than uniform increase, there were localized extreme values. Deep aquifer salinity was also predicted to exhibit increasing trend over the period. Study findings and recommendations are suggested for immediate and planned intervention.
%B Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene %V 6 %P 1-14 %8 01/2018 %G eng %N 1 %1 NE/J002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1525/elementa.143 %0 Generic %D 2018 %T Eco-friendly cocoa farming will help boost livelihoods and secure supply chains %X

Cocoa production is a pillar of Ghana’s economy and of rural livelihoods, but it is at risk from forest degradation and climate change. An Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) project has identified eco-friendly farming methods that could play a role in securing the crop’s future.

Key messages of this ESPA Impacts Story are:

• Ghana’s cocoa yields are at risk from both forest loss and from the impacts of climate change.

• Private cocoa companies, the smallholder farmers from whom companies purchase cocoa beans, and the Government of Ghana all have an interest in protecting and enhancing yields of the lucrative cocoa crop.

• The ESPA ECOLIMITS project has identified eco-friendly practices and key management variables that have the potential to boost cocoa yields.

• Improved cocoa yields help address some – but not all – aspects of rural poverty.

• Farming methods alone will not address the security of cocoa farmers and the ecological health of Ghana’s cocoa forests. Policy changes at national level are needed for Ghanaian cocoa farming to reach its potential for economic, social and environmental sustainability.

%G eng %0 Book %D 2018 %T Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation: Trade-offs and Governance %A Schreckenberg, Kate %E Mace, Georgina %E Poudyal, Mahesh %X Understanding how to sustain the services that ecosystems provide in support of human wellbeing is an active and growing research area. This book provides a state-of-the-art review of current thinking on the links between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation. In part it showcases the key findings of the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme, which has funded over 120 research projects in more than 50 countries since 2010. ESPA’s goal is to ensure that ecosystems are being sustainably managed in a way that contributes to poverty alleviation as well as to inclusive and sustainable growth. As governments across the world map how they will achieve the 17 ambitious Sustainable Development Goals, most of which have poverty alleviation, wellbeing and sustainable environmental management at their heart, ESPA’s findings have never been more timely and relevant. The book synthesises the headline messages and compelling evidence to address the questions at the heart of ecosystems and wellbeing research. The authors, all leading specialists, address the evolving framings and contexts for the work, review the impacts of ongoing drivers of change, present new ways to achieve sustainable wellbeing, equity, diversity, and resilience, and evaluate the potential contributions from conservation projects, payment schemes, and novel governance approaches across scales from local to national and international. The cross-cutting, thematic chapters challenge conventional wisdom in some areas, and validate new methods and approaches for sustainable development in others. The book will provide a rich and important reference source for advanced students, researchers and policy-makers in ecology, environmental studies, ecological economics and sustainable development. %I Routledge %C London %@ 9781138580848 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/Ecosystem-Services-and-Poverty-Alleviation-OPEN-ACCESS-Trade-offs-and/Schreckenberg-Mace-Poudyal/p/book/9781138580848 %1 espa010001 %2 espa010001 %6 ESPA Directorate %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Book %D 2018 %T Ecosystem services for well-being in deltas: integrated assessment for policy analysis %A Nicholls Robert, J. %A Hutton Craig, W. %A Adger W. Neil %A Rahman , S. M. %A Hanson, Susan E. %X

This book answers key questions about environment, people and their shared future in deltas. It develops a systematic and holistic approach for policy-orientated analysis for the future of these regions. It does so by focusing on ecosystem services in the world’s largest, most populous and most iconic delta region, that of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh. The book covers the conceptual basis, research approaches and challenges, while also providing a methodology for integration across multiple disciplines, offering a potential prototype for assessments of deltas worldwide. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas analyses changing ecosystem services in deltas; the health and well-being of people reliant on them; the continued central role of agriculture and fishing; and the implications of aquaculture in such environments.The analysis is brought together in an integrated and accessible way to examine the future of the Ganges Brahmaputra delta based on a near decade of research by a team of the world’s leading scientists on deltas and their human and environmental dimensions. This book is essential reading for students and academics within the fields of Environmental Geography, Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy focused on solving the world’s most critical challenges of balancing humans with their environments. This book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

%I Springer International Publishing AG %@ 9783319710921 %G eng %K https://www.palgrave.com/gb/book/9783319710921 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Book %D 2018 %T Ecosystems, poverty alleviation and conditional transfers %A Ina Porras %A Nigel Asquith %X

Evidence from the international research community shows that careful management of nature results in benefits to people’s wellbeing. Poor people especially depend more heavily on the quality of the ecosystems, and have less access to substitutes when they are degraded. Making meaningful impacts in the way ecosystems are managed requires governments to step in and scale up, but the evidence also shows that empowered communities can make strong calls to enact and implement change at the local level.

Positive incentives like payments for ecosystem services (PES) and other forms of conditional transfers can provide important signals to enact this behavioural change into positive actions. Carefully designed, these incentives can also contribute to the wellbeing of people, especially poor and vulnerable groups.

New tools emerge that can help with scaling up and dealing with inevitable trade-offs, but more efforts are needed to bring this information closer to those making decisions.

This handbook and accompanying materials help to bridge this space by: 1) making evidence accessible, bringing the latest evidence from research on PES in theory and practice with documented case studies written for practitioners; and 2) supporting capacity building to ‘train the trainers’, through teaching modules which can be used to promote capacity building of practitioners.

%I International Institute for Environment and Development %C London %P 61 %G eng %K http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/16639IIED.pdf %1 IAF-2017-18-006 %2 iaf-2017-18-006 %+ Yes %0 Report %D 2018 %T Ensuring climate-smart agriculture ‘leaves no one behind’ %A Marije Schaafsma %A Andrew Bell %X

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approaches will be necessary to secure food production across Africa as the effects of climate change are increasingly felt.

Can these approaches also help lift the poorest farmers out of poverty?

Key messages of this policy brief include:

• CSA has the potential to contribute to environmental sustainability. But it does not necessarily bring improvements in wellbeing.

• For CSA to work for poor farmers and the environment, it should be harmonised and coordinated with policies and measures that contribute to poverty reduction and influence wellbeing.

• Scaling up CSA with poverty alleviation at its core demands a holistic perspective. Collaborative partnerships that keep farmers central to decision-making and are inclusive of women and marginalised groups are important.

• Better and more information about CSA is needed at all levels, from communities to ministries, to inform policy-making and interventions.

• There is no one-size-fits-all way of adapting to climate change. Flexible alternatives should be the subject of a dynamic decision-making process in which the benefits of CSA strategies for all community members, including the poorest, are considered.

• CSA metrics must go beyond agricultural production. They need to embrace all aspects of poverty and wellbeing, such as markets, health, education and living standards.

%G eng %0 Report %D 2018 %T An environment for wellbeing, Pathways out of poverty: Policy messages from the ESPA programme %X

The Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme is a global, interdisciplinary research programme that aims to give decision-makers and natural resource users the evidence they need for more sustainable ecosystem management and effective poverty reduction. Ecosystem services support human society: covering everything from freshwater flows and soil quality to fisheries productivity and climate regulation – and including cultural and spiritual values.

The Government of the United Kingdom created the ESPA research programme in 2010. It has taken on tough questions, such as: Do ecosystem services provide safety nets for people in poverty? Can ecosystem services help vulnerable people to diversify their livelihood options and security, and to enhance other aspects of their physical and mental wellbeing? How should environmental goods and services be prioritised in development, and how could they contribute to sustainable growth in developing countries and emerging economies? Are there local and regional biophysical limits and thresholds that cannot be avoided and how might they be identified?

Now, eight years on, ESPA’s research is more timely and relevant than ever. As the programme comes to a close in 2018, this report provides the headline messages from ESPA’s research. These messages are for policy-makers and natural resource managers the world over, to support decisions for a fairer, more just world, and a healthier environment for current and future generations.

The headline message of ESPA's research is: policies and programmes that use environmental resources inevitably have implications and trade-offs for human wellbeing. They may even carry hidden human costs. That goes for environment-first policies, such as protected areas, as well as development-first policies, such as agriculture. The implications and potential human costs must be adequately understood and explicitly addressed through open, just, democratic processes.

ESPA research has looked at the multiple dimensions of wellbeing  - and suggests that the different ways that social groups (women and men, youth and elders, ethnic groups, rich and poor) use and value environmental resources should be recognised in decision-making. ESPA research also emphasises that equity and justice are environmental issues.

Explore these ideas and the contributing ESPA literature in the downloadable pdf at right (44 pages). You can also explore the interactive version of ESPA's summary for policy-makers - find the full English version and executive summaries in Bengali, French, Spanish and Portuguese (Hindi coming soon!) at www.espa-headlines.ac.uk

%G eng %0 Book %D 2018 %T An environment for wellbeing, Pathways out of poverty: Policy messages from the ESPA programme %X

 

The Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme is a global, interdisciplinary research programme that aims to give decision-makers and natural resource users the evidence they need for more sustainable ecosystem management and effective poverty reduction. Ecosystem services support human society: covering everything from freshwater flows and soil quality to fisheries productivity and climate regulation – and including cultural and spiritual values.

The Government of the United Kingdom created the ESPA research programme in 2010. It has taken on tough questions, such as: Do ecosystem services provide safety nets for people in poverty? Can ecosystem services help vulnerable people to diversify their livelihood options and security, and to enhance other aspects of their physical and mental wellbeing? How should environmental goods and services be prioritised in development, and how could they contribute to sustainable growth in developing countries and emerging economies? Are there local and regional biophysical limits and thresholds that cannot be avoided and how might they be identified?

Now, eight years on, ESPA’s research is more timely and relevant than ever. As the programme comes to a close in 2018, this report provides the headline messages from ESPA’s research. These messages are for policy-makers and natural resource managers the world over, to support decisions for a fairer, more just world, and a healthier environment for current and future generations.

 

%G eng %0 Report %D 2018 %T An environment for wellbeing: Pathways out of poverty. Policy messages from the ESPA programme (Executive Summary version) %A ESPA Directorate %K development %K ecosystem services %K poverty %X

The Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme is a global, interdisciplinary research programme that aims to give decision-makers and natural resource users the evidence they need for more sustainable ecosystem management and effective poverty reduction. Ecosystem services support human society: covering everything from freshwater flows and soil quality to fisheries productivity and climate regulation – and including cultural and spiritual values.

The Government of the United Kingdom created the ESPA research programme in 2010. It has taken on tough questions, such as: Do ecosystem services provide safety nets for people in poverty? Can ecosystem services help vulnerable people to diversify their livelihood options and security, and to enhance other aspects of their physical and mental wellbeing? How should environmental goods and services be prioritised in development, and how could they contribute to sustainable growth in developing countries and emerging economies? Are there local and regional biophysical limits and thresholds that cannot be avoided and how might they be identified?

Now ESPA’s research is more timely and relevant than ever. As the programme comes to a close in 2018, this report provides the headline messages from ESPA’s research. These messages are for policy-makers and natural resource managers the world over, to support decisions for a fairer, more just world, and a healthier environment for current and future generations.

The headline message of ESPA's research is: policies and programmes that use environmental resources inevitably have implications and trade-offs for human wellbeing. They may even carry hidden human costs. That goes for environment-first policies, such as protected areas, as well as development-first policies, such as agriculture. The implications and potential human costs must be adequately understood and explicitly addressed through open, just, democratic processes.

ESPA research has looked at the multiple dimensions of wellbeing  - and suggests that the different ways that social groups (for example, women and men, youth and elders, ethnic groups, rich and poor) use and value environmental resources should be recognised in decision-making. ESPA research also emphasises that equity and justice are environmental issues.

Explore these ideas and the contributing ESPA literature in the Executive Summary (8 pages, download at right). You can also explore the interactive version of ESPA's summary for policy-makers - find the English version and editions in Bengali, Chinese (Mandarin), Hindi, French, Spanish and Portuguese (European, Brazilian) at www.espa-headlines.ac.uk

%G eng %0 Journal Article %J Ecological Economics %D 2018 %T Environmental conservation and social benefits of charcoal production in Mozambique %A Zorrilla-Miras, Pedro %A Mahamane, Mansour %A Metzger, Marc J. %A Baumert, Sophia %A Vollmer, Frank %A Luz, Ana Catarina %A Woollen, Emily %A Sitoe, Almeida A. %A Patenaude, Genevieve %A Nhantumbo, Isilda %A Ryan, Casey M. %A Paterson, James %A Matediane, Maria Julieta %A Ribeiro, Natasha Sofia %A Grundy, Isla M. %X Charcoal is an important source of energy and income for millions of people in Africa. Its production often drives forest degradation and deforestation which have impacts on the local people that remain poorly understood. We present a novel methodology for analysing the contribution of woodland ecosystem services (ES) to rural well-being and poverty alleviation, which takes into account access mechanisms to ES, trade-offs between ES, and human response options. Using a participatory approach, a set of land use change scenarios were translated into a probabilistic model that integrates biophysical and social data. Our findings suggest that in highly forested areas woodland degradation does not have a critical impact on the local use of the three ES studied: charcoal, firewood and grass. Social factors show the largest impact on the quantity of charcoal produced, e.g. female-headed households experience the greatest barriers to access charcoal production. Participating in forest associations and diversifying income activities lead to greater charcoal production. Results show that charcoal production increases some aspects of well-being (e.g. household assets), but does not decrease acute multidimensional poverty. Great efforts are required to reach a charcoal production system that alleviates poverty, improves environmental sustainability, and provides a reliable charcoal supply. %B Ecological Economics %I ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV %V 144 %P 100-111 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %3 2 %4 Mozambique %# 000418108500009 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.07.028 %M 0921-8009 %0 Generic %D 2018 %T An equity framework helps ensure that protected areas are fair to people %A ESPA Directorate %X

There have been repeated calls to ensure that costs and benefits arising from protected areas are shared equitably. Yet a gap remains between policy and practice. ESPA responded to a clear need for clarity and practical guidance to ensure that the benefits of conservation do not come at a cost for poor communities. Key messages of this impact story include:

%G eng %0 Generic %D 2018 %T ESPA research informs local citizens’ action to protect critical water sources %A ESPA Directorate %X

In the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, Nainital’s lake supports its growing population and tourism industry, but its water levels are declining. A project funded by the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme researched the impact of human activities on water levels, and convened an expert group that supported local citizens who are engaged in a public interest lawsuit to protect their water source.

Nainital is reliant on its central lake to support its growing economy, but its critical recharge zone has suffered a rapid increase in water pumping and construction that has resulted in declining water levels. ESPA research suggested that such activities should be halted in order to restore the capacity of this critical water recharge zone. The research fed into a public interest lawsuit, media articles and a citizen group, all focused on building support to rejuvenate the recharge zone. The Uttarakhand state government has released 30 million rupees (just under US$500,000) for this purpose.

The project worked to empower non-experts with crucial knowledge about critical water zones and the importance of recharging watercourses, and brought together diverse stakeholders (in particular the citizens impacted by water shortage) to promote dialogue.

%G eng %0 Journal Article %J Land Use Policy %D 2018 %T Estimating welfare impacts where property rights are contested: methodological and policy implications %A O. Sarobidy Rakotonarivo %A Jette Bredahl Jacobsen %A Mahesh Poudyal %A Alexandra Rasoamanana %A Neal Hockley %X

Where rights over natural resources are contested, the effectiveness of conservation may be undermined and it can be difficult to estimate the welfare impacts of conservation restrictions on local people. In particular, researchers face the dilemma of estimating respondents’ Willingness To Pay (WTP) for rights to resources, or their Willingness To Accept (WTA) compensation for foregoing these rights. We conducted a discrete choice experiment with respondents living next to a new protected area in Madagascar, using a split-sample design to administer both WTP and WTA formats, followed by debriefing interviews. We first examined the differences in response patterns to the formats and their performance in our study context. We also used the two formats to elicit respondents’ attitudes to conservation restrictions and property rights over forestlands. We found that the format affected the relative importance of different attributes: WTA respondents strongly favoured livelihood projects and secure tenure whereas neither attributes were significant for WTP respondents. The WTA format outperformed WTP format on three validity criteria: it was perceived to be more plausible and consequential; led to fewer protest responses; and was more appropriate given very low incomes. Seventy-three percent of respondents did not accept the legitimacy of state protection and strongly aspired to secure forest tenure. The use of a WTP format may thus be inappropriate even if respondents do not hold formal rights over resources. We conclude that estimating the opportunity costs of stopping de jure illegal activities is difficult and coercive conservation lacks procedural legitimacy and may not achieve full compensations. Our findings question the viability of the current conservation model and highlight the importance to conservation policy of locally legitimate property rights over forestlands.

%B Land Use Policy %V 70 %P 71-83 %G eng %K http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026483771631105X %1 NE/K010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.09.051 %0 Report %D 2018 %T Governing natural resources for effectiveness, equity and sustainability: what matters? %A Fiona Nunan %A Mary Menton %A Connie McDermott %A Kate Schreckenberg %A Mark Huxham %X

The governance of natural resources – such as fisheries, forests and grazing land – often fails to deliver adequately on sustainable use, justice and improved livelihoods. Decision-making structures and processes determine the management of resources and who benefits from them. How can governance approaches become more effective and fair to enable improved sustainability and livelihoods over time? ​

This policy brief explores these questions through a review of the ESPA programme's and broader literature, and concludes:

Improving effectiveness

1. Greater cooperation and coordination is essential between actors, including within and across government.

2. An ecosystem-based approach could encourage greater coordination, plus recognition of multiple ecosystem services and of potential trade-offs from policy. Transparent processes for resolving trade-offs are needed.

Improving equity and livelihoods

3. Governance systems must be deliberately designed to deliver on fairness and poverty alleviation.

4. Intermediary organisations can help build trust between resource users and government actors. Their participation often depends on project funding, so adequate sustained support should be given.

5. Governance approaches should address distribution (who bears costs and benefits), procedure (who participates and how) and recognition (whose voice, rights, values and priorities are heard and respected) to be equitable and just.

Improving sustainability

6. New approaches should consider existing systems, including local rule-making structures.

7. Inclusion of adaptive management and active learning processes can acknowledge the inevitability of change to natural and social systems, and anticipate the adaptation of governance systems in response.

%I ESPA %C Edinburgh, UK %G eng %1 NE/P008178/1 %2 ne-p008178-1 %0 Journal Article %D 2018 %T A guide to selecting ecosystem service models for decision-making %A Bullock, James M. %A Ding, Helen %X Co-produced with James Bullock's project: ESPA/Small Grant/2017-18/01. Ecosystems provide many services essential to human livelihoods. To maintain long-term sustainability of ecosystem benefits, many national policies and some international agreements include objectives to protect ecosystems. For instance, a number of the nationally determined contributions to climate action, submitted by countries under the 2015 Paris Agreement, include ecosystem-nbased climate mitigation and adaptation obkectives. Additionally, as of December 2017, 127 United Nations member states had signed to join the Intergovernmental Acience-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), an independent intergovernmental body established to stengthen the science-policy interface for biodiversity, long-term human well-being, and sustainable development. %I World Resources Institute %P 48 %@ 978-1-56973-933-1 %G eng %K https://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/guide-selecting-ecosystem-service-model-decision-making_0.pdf# %1 rof-2017-18-02 %2 rof-2017-18-02 %6 Regional Opportunity Fund %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Book %D 2018 %T A guide to selecting ecosystem service models for decision-making: Lessons from Sub-Saharan Africa %A James Bullock %A Helen Ding %X

Ecosystems are essential to human life, livelihoods and wellbeing. Many national policies and international agreements include goals to protect ecosystem services. This guidebook helps readers to assess how ecosystem service models could support policy-making in their countries.

Ecosystem protection features in several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals – particularly those on terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, and the marine environment. Some countries’ national climate action plans, submitted under the 2015 Paris Agreement, include ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation. To date, 127 countries have joined the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), an international body to strengthen collaboration between scientific experts and policy-makers on biodiversity, long-term human wellbeing, and sustainable development.

In order to manage ecosystem services sustainably, decision-makers need to understand the extent and condition of ecosystems. They must be able to predict the impacts of alternative policies or management decisions on the environment.

Frequently, there is not enough measured data on ecosystem services. In these situations, models can provide useful information based on assumptions from similar places. Modeling is especially useful in developing countries, where measured data may be scarce.

The guide is particularly suited to advisors and technical managers who are supporting policy-makers.

It is based on results from the 2013–16 WISER project, which assessed several ecosystem service modeling tools in sub-Saharan Africa. Policy advisors from Malawi and Uganda contributed actively to the guide’s development.

The guide includes:

 

%I World Resources Institute %C Washington, DC %G eng %1 NE/L001322/1 %2 ne-l001322-1 %0 Journal Article %J Migration And Development %D 2018 %T Home is where the money goes: migration-related urban-rural integration in delta regions %A Szabo, Sylvia %A Adger, William Neil %A Matthews, Zoe %X The dominant movement of people in the mega-deltas of Asia is from agriculture-dominated rural areas to urban settlements, driven by growing opportunities, but resulting in new human development challenges. In this context, the present study aims to investigate whether remittance income leads to enhanced multiple dimensions of well-being in sending areas in deltas, by focusing on two delta regions with significant out-migration rates, Bangladeshi Ganges Brahmaputra and the Vietnamese Mekong deltas. The paper develops a conceptual framework that draws on existing migration theories and the aspirations and capabilities theories. Data from large scale sample household surveys (2010 Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey and 2012 Vietnam Living Standards Survey) are analysed through multilevel regression modelling to examine well-being outcomes in sending areas and links to remittance income. The results show that the temporal extent of internal and international migration is positively associated with remittances in both delta regions. The results also suggest that in both delta regions remittances have a significant positive effect on household well-being in the source rural areas, including overall income, investments in health, food security and access to sanitation. The study concludes that landscapes of urban and rural deltas are increasingly economically integrated which suggests greater resilience even for environmentally-at-risk tropical deltas. %B Migration And Development %V 7 %P 163-179 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1080/21632324.2017.1374506 %0 Report %D 2018 %T How can ecosystem services support equitable and sustainable fisheries? %A Daniela Diz %X

There are knowledge gaps on the flows of ecosystem goods and services in the seas and oceans – and these gaps hamper equitable and sustainable fisheries management. Methods for measuring and monitoring ecosystem services can help conserve biodiversity in the fisheries sector as a way to alleviate poverty and support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The key messages of this policy brief from the ESPA programme and Strathclyde University are:

• Methodologies to understand ecosystem service flows and tradeoffs in fisheries management can be applied even in data-poor contexts.
• Ecosystem monitoring should consider cumulative impacts of development and conservation measures on fisheries and communities.
• Early consideration of livelihoods in conservation measures is crucial for equitable and effective outcomes, and needs to be complemented by social safety nets and capacity building.
• Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes that incorporate traditional knowledge can effectively incentivise conservation and improve livelihoods.
• Identifying overlooked trade-offs through use of disaggregated data can contribute to equitable and integrated marine and coastal management.
• A stronger focus is needed on the governance of small-scale fisheries, both among and within States, including evaluating ecosystem services as part of integrated impact assessments.

%G eng %0 Journal Article %D 2018 %T Human migration to the forest frontier: Implications for land use change and conservation management %A Julia P.G. Jones %A Rina Mandimbiniaina %A Ruth Kelly %A Patrick Ranjatson %A Bodonirina Rakotojoelina %A Kate Schreckenberg %A Mahesh Poudyal %X

Human migration is often considered an important driver of land use change and a threat to protected area integrity, but the reasons for in‐migration, the effectiveness of conservation restrictions at stemming migration, and the extent to which migrants disproportionately contribute to land use change has been poorly studied, especially at fine spatial scales.

Using a case study in eastern Madagascar (603 household surveys, mapping agricultural land for a subset of 167 households, and 49 focus group discussions and key informant interviews), we explore the patterns and drivers of migration within the lifetime of those currently alive. We investigate how this influences forest conversion on the border of established protected areas and sites without a history of conservation restrictions. We show that in‐migration is driven, especially in sites with high migration, by access to land.

There is a much higher proportion of migrant households at sites without a long history of conservation restrictions than around long‐established protected areas, and migrants tend to be more educated and live closer to the forest edge than non‐migrants. Our evidence supports the engulfment model (an active forest frontier later becoming a protected area); there is no evidence that protected areas have attracted migrants. Where there is a perceived open forest frontier, people move to the forest but these migrants are no more likely than local people to clear land (i.e., migrants are not “exceptional resource degraders”). In some parts of the tropics, out‐migration from rural areas is resulting in forest regrowth; such a forest transition is unlikely to occur in Madagascar for some time. Those seeking to manage protected areas at the forest frontier will therefore need to prevent further colonisation; supporting tenure security for existing residents is likely to be an important step.

%G eng %R https://doi.org/10.1002/geo2.50 %0 Report %D 2018 %T Impacts of biofuel production in southern Africa %A Johnson, Francis X. %A Nyambane, Anne %A vonMaltitz, Graham %A Luhanga, Davies %A Jarzebski, Marcin %A Balde, Boubacar Siddighi %A Gasparatos, Alexandros %X

 

Adopting an ecosystem services lens in assessing the local impacts of biofuel crop production offers valuable insights. For example, unravelling the effects of land use change on ecosystem services improves our understanding of the local impacts of biofuel crop production on poverty alleviation and food security. This knowledge can be used to identify best practices and support decision-making and policy design in the production of biofuel crops. 

Biofuel crop production causes changes in land use, and by extension affects the provision of various ecosystem services. Crop type, scale of production and the original land use are key factors in determining whether changes in ecosystem services are negative or positive over a given timeframe.  For example, the conversion of agricultural land and partly degraded woodland to large sugarcane plantations in Malawi and Swaziland has had carbon sequestration benefits through carbon stock gains. Similar effects are observed in areas of Malawi where jatropha was promoted as a hedge crop in small family farms. On the contrary, the conversion of savanna woodland for a large jatropha plantation in Mozambique has caused substantial decline in carbon stocks.

Sugarcane is a mature industrial crop with a long history in southern Africa. Its production can contribute positively to local poverty alleviation and food security. This was observed in both plantation and smallholder settings in Malawi and Swaziland. While the actual effects vary between the various groups involved in sugarcane production, these groups tend to be better off compared to groups not involved in sugarcane production.

Jatropha is a relatively new and unproven crop in southern Africa and hence its poverty reduction benefits also remain unproven. While workers in jatropha plantations could experience some economic benefits (with positive ripple effects on poverty alleviation and food security), these benefits are somewhat precarious considering the almost total collapse of the jatropha sector in southern Africa. On the other hand, considering the low achieved yields, jatropha cultivation in smallholder settings in Malawi does not seem to offer any significant poverty alleviation and food security benefits to adopting farmers.

 

 

%G eng %1 ESPA/ROF.2016-17/04 %2 espa-rof2016-17-04 %0 Generic %D 2018 %T Integrated environment and development modelling to benefit the poorest in coastal Bangladesh %A ESPA Directorate %X

The livelihoods of the many tens of millions of poor people in Bangladesh’s delta region are increasingly precarious as the natural resources upon which they depend are threatened. Scientists from the ESPA programme and senior officials in the Bangladesh government have collaborated to ensure that development in this challenging area works for the economy, the environment and people. To support more equitable delta development, an ESPA project worked with stakeholders to co-produce ΔDIEM, a cutting-edge computer model that can indicate the effects of development policies and activities on future livelihood and poverty scenarios. For instance, initial trials of the ΔDIEM model show that new and enhanced polders (the traditional means to keep back annual river flooding and storm surges) have the potential to improve life for the poorest residents in the study area, if properly maintained. This pilot has also highlighted the importance of considering ecosystem services across administrative boundaries. It shows how development interventions could affect neighbouring districts. The foundations have now been laid for further application of ΔDIEM in the current study area, across Bangladesh, and also in delta regions around the world. Effective stakeholder engagement and partnership is a fundamental component of this project, with the uptake of ΔDIEM being determined by its value to relevant decision-making and policy processes in Bangladesh.

%G eng %0 Generic %D 2018 %T Integrating the environment into poverty measures to influence policy %A ESPA Directorate %X

Failure to consider and properly measure the relationship between the environment, human wellbeing and poverty constrains the design of effective development policies. An initiative funded by the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme examined how multidimensional measures of poverty can better capture the importance of the environment for human wellbeing. Key messages of this impact story are:

 

%G eng %0 Report %D 2018 %T Interdisciplinary research for development impact: How can funders walk the talk? %A ESPA Directorate %X

Academic research is increasingly called upon to provide actionable evidence for sustainable development. As the demands for ‘impact’ grow, the limits of single-discipline investigation become apparent. Most funders see interdisciplinary research as an avenue to tackle complex global challenges. Yet this emphasis clashes with an academic culture that remains, to a large extent, within the boundaries of individual disciplines. ESPA has produced a new briefing on lessons learned from partnership working. It is based on a comprehensive review of Ecosystem Services for Poverty Reduction (ESPA) documentation, including project proposals and reports, an online survey and key informant interviews.

Key messages

• Interdisciplinary research takes extra time at every stage: from defining research questions, to agreeing data-collection techniques and sample sizes, to publishing. Project timelines needs to allow for team interaction, mutual learning and flexibility.

• Interdisciplinarity is about keeping sight of the ‘bigger picture’. Team composition should reflect a mix of disciplinary expertise, and also include generalist researchers who are able to work across disciplines.

• Interpersonal relations are crucial to the success of interdisciplinary processes. Facilitation skills are critical, but are generally not prioritised in team composition and leadership.

• Interdisciplinary research requires flexible management. Interdisciplinary enquiries can open new avenues of investigation, and even completely reframe research questions. This unpredictability should be treated as an opportunity not a problem.

%G eng %0 Generic %D 2018 %T Land managers receive development boost for wise stewardship %A ESPA Directorate %X

The ‘water factories’ in Bolivia’s upper watersheds have been degraded by unsustainable land use. In Bolivia, many communities have no economic alternative other than to deforest their land for agriculture and livestock grazing, even though removing forest cover jeopardises the water sources on which they and downstream users depend. Farmers allow their cattle to roam freely through the forest, contaminating water supplies and posing a serious health risk to water users.

Watershared schemes facilitate an exchange whereby downstream water users provide incentives to upstream land managers to conserve and plant trees, and to manage their cattle carefully, with greater respect for the watercourses. In return, the upstream residents receive materials and equipment to bolster sustainable livelihoods, such as beehives, fruit trees, irrigation systems and water troughs for cattle.

The project demonstrated that the implementation of these ‘Watershared’ agreements is replicable and scalable across Bolivia, and raised interest from the private sector. The solutions presented by ‘Watershared’ agreements resonate with communities across Latin America and worldwide, despite the different socioeconomic contexts and locations.

%G eng %0 Journal Article %D 2018 %T The local costs of biodiversity offsets: Comparing standards, policy and practice %A Cécile Bidaud %A Kate Schreckenberg %A Julia P. G. Jones %X

Biodiversity offsets seek to counterbalance loss of biodiversity due to major developments by generating equivalent biodiversity benefits elsewhere, resulting, at least in theory, in ‘no net loss’ (or even a ‘net positive gain’) in biodiversity. While local costs of major developments themselves receive significant attention, the local costs of associated biodiversity offsets have not.

In low income countries, where local populations often depend heavily on natural resources and access to land for their livelihoods, the conservation restrictions introduced around biodiversity offsets can have significant local costs. We consider the international standards which underpin the development of biodiversity offsets around the world and look at the biodiversity offset programme of the Ambatovy nickel mine in eastern Madagascar: a company at the vanguard of biodiversity offset development.

Using document review and interviews with key international and national stakeholders (as well as previous fieldwork on local impacts of the Ambatovy biodiversity offset) we identify a mismatch between policies which make clear commitments to avoiding harm to local people, and somewhat weaker implementation on the ground. We explore this policy-practice gap and suggest that it is due to:

1) different interpretations of the meaning of international standards,

2) weak incentives for companies to comply with policies,

3) separation of responsibilities for social and environmental impacts of interventions in operating companies,

4) assumptions that conservation is a ‘good thing’ causing reduced scrutiny of biodiversity offsets relative to other activities of major developments. Biodiversity offsets are resulting in a rapid increase in protected areas funded by corporations (and their international lenders).

Many conservation projects in low income countries have local costs. The existence of stringent standards which recognise these costs in the case of biodiversity offset projects is very positive. Biodiversity offsets have the potential to be a successful addition to the conservationist’s toolkit but the real challenges of addressing the local costs of this novel conservation approach need to be resolved.

%G eng %K https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837717316587 %0 Report %D 2018 %T Making the most of peri-urban ecosystem services %A Fiona Marshall %A Jonathan Dolley %X

Ecosystem services are vital for peri-urban and urbanising areas, and the people who live within them. In contexts of rapid urbanisation, these services are under threat from redevelopment, pollution and overconsumption, and there are gaps in the policies and structures that should protect them. Despite these challenges, there are opportunities for local authorities and citizens to work together and join up policy with action on the ground. Peri-urban ecosystems can provide vital support for functions such as disaster risk management, flood control, reduction of urban heat island effects, air and water purification, food and water security, and waste management. Supporting them is essential in order to meet national government policies and commitments on multiple issues linked to environment, health and poverty reduction, the Sustainable Development Goals and the resilient cities agenda. There are important governance challenges involved in safeguarding and harnessing peri-urban ecosystem services. These include rapid change, ambiguity over boundaries, and gaps in policies and regulations. Involving communities in appraisal and decision-making is crucial to the success of initiatives to protect peri-urban ecosystem services. Taking account of local cultures and histories is important. In many cases, the process will also provide crucial missing data and insights, build trust and avoid misunderstandings. There is a need to share good practice, cases and opportunities between municipalities; and to provide opportunities for decision-makers at national level to learn from them.

%G eng %1 NE/L001292/1 %2 ne-l001292-1 %0 Generic %D 2018 %T Mangrove conservation is protecting both livelihoods and carbon stores %A ESPA Directorate %X

In Kenya, research supported by the ESPA programme has enabled local people to conserve their mangroves in exchange for community development projects, in a scheme that is impacting both Kenyan and international policy. Mangroves are highly efficient at capturing carbon, much of which ends up buried below ground and is stored away from the atmosphere.

The initiative researched the mangroves’ total potential to store carbon below ground, and the vulnerability of this carbon if the mangroves were cut. The team quantified the amount by which carbon dioxide emissions increased when mangrove trees die, and then an associated conservation scheme, known as Mikoko Pamoja (‘mangroves together’), engaged communities to restore thousands of new trees along the coastline. This meant the community could apply for accreditation to sell carbon credits through the voluntary carbon market, receiving an income for their conservation.

The sale of carbon credits has now raised US$52,758 and is funding new conservation and community projects.

Further research found that seagrass meadows also store carbon, presenting new conservation opportunities.

%G eng %0 Journal Article %D 2018 %T Mind the gap: the use of research in protected area management in Madagascar %A Herimanitra P. Rafidimanantsoa %A Mahesh Poudyal %A Bruno S. Ramamonjisoa %A Julia P. G. Jones %X

It is increasingly well recognised that a lot of conservation-related research is not being used to improve conservation practice. However, much of the research in this area has been conducted with conservation managers in high income countries, where the barriers to accessing and using research may be different. We conducted questionnaires (n=85) and face to face interviews (n=54) with managers of protected areas in Madagascar to explore their use of research results. Despite considering research results—including peer reviewed articles, theses, in-house research and research by other organisations—a very useful information source, many managers do not use research results regularly to inform their on-the-ground actions. Instead they tend to rely on experience, or advice from others. The reasons for the low use of research results are many and varied but include barriers to accessing research, especially peer-reviewed publications and reports published by other organisations. Managers also raised concern about the practical relevance of some of the research being conducted in their protected areas. We identify a series of resources which can be useful to managers to improve the access they have to research results and highlight a series of steps which researchers can follow to increase the likelihood of their research being used. We also suggest there is a role for the Malagasy authorities in improving the ways in which research reports— received as part of the conditions of research permits— are shared and archived. Researchers are increasingly aware of the moral imperative that research conducted should be available to inform practice, and protected area managers want access to the best possible information to inform their decisions. With such good intentions, overcoming the gap between research and practice should not be difficult with good communication and essential to improving conservation management in Madagascar.

%G eng %K http://www.journalmcd.com/index.php/mcd/article/view/638 %0 Journal Article %J Ecological Economics %D 2018 %T Modeling smallholder farmers' preferences for soil management measures: A case study from South Ethiopia %A Solomon Tarfasa %A Bedru Balana %A Tewodros Tefera %A Teshale Woldeamanuel %A Awdenegest Moges %A Mengistu Dinato %A Helaina Black %X

Land degradation is a major environmental problem in Ethiopia posing serious threats to agricultural productivity and livelihoods. The interactions of numerous socio-economic, demographic, natural, and institutional factors constitute the underlying causes of soil degradation in Ethiopia. However, there exist evidence gaps on the contextual factors that hinder investments on soil conservation among smallholders. Using primary data generated through a stated preference survey among 359 sample smallholder farm households in Southern Ethiopia, this study investigates investment constraints on soil management technologies among smallholders. A random parameter logit model was implemented to estimate the model. Results indicate that smallholders are willing to invest in soil management technologies if appropriate incentive mechanisms, primarily, secured land tenure rights and access to finance are in place. Unfortunately, the prevailing land tenure regime in the country does not allow private property rights on land and smallholders have very limited access to credit. Thus, instituting secure land rights and improving credit access to smallholders should be considered as key interventions to enhance adoption of soil management technologies. The study highlights that policy interventions that incentivize adoption of soil management measures provide not only on-site private benefits but wider societal off-site benefits through the provision of multiple ecosystem services.

%B Ecological Economics %V 145 %P 410-419 %8 03/2018 %G eng %1 NE/K010441/1 %2 ne-k010441-1 %R 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.11.027 %0 Journal Article %J Natural Resources Forum %D 2018 %T Navigating multi-level natural resource governance: an analytical guide %A Nunan, Fiona %X This outcome was funded by the ROF, but the science was developed under the CESEA project. A plethora of terms are used to describe the form of governance of complex social-ecological systems, such as multi-level governance, polycentricity and network governance. This plethora of terms is associated with a diffuse literature from which it can be challenging to identify which variables are important for investigation of the governance system and what questions could be asked. The purpose of this article is to present the development of a guide for the analysis of the complex governance systems of renewable natural resources, informed by a breadth of literature from which key characteristics, challenges and concepts are identified. The guide consists of three dimensions: multiplicities of levels, actors and institutions; the existence, opportunities for, and challenges of, interactions within and between levels (vertical and horizontal interactions); and an assessment of governance performance through application of governance principles. The guide is applied to a case study of mangrove forests in Kenya, to illustrate its utility in generating understanding and identification of challenges and opportunities for more effective multi-level governance. It is proposed that the guide could be beneficial to researchers and practitioners seeking to develop an understanding of structures, performance and outcomes of multi-level governance. %B Natural Resources Forum %G eng %1 espa/rof/2016-17/02 %2 espa-rof-2016-17-02 %6 Regional Opportunity Fund %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/1477-8947.12149 %0 Journal Article %J Human Ecology %D 2018 %T The park is ruining our livelihoods. We support the park! Unravelling the paradox of attitudes to protected areas %A Adrian Martin %A Rodd Myers %A Neil M. Dawson %X

Despite considerable field-based innovation and academic scrutiny, the nexus between conservation approaches, local support for parks and park effectiveness remains quite puzzling. Common approaches to understanding notions of environmental justice are to understand distributional and procedural issues, representation in decision making, and recognition of authorities and claims. We took a different approach and analysed environmental justice claims through institutional, ideational and psychological lenses. We sought to understand how the national park could have such broad support from local communities despite their acknowledgement that it severely curtailed their livelihoods. We conducted 100 household interviews in three villages that border Nam Et-Phou Louey National Protected Area. Our study found that villagers 1) hold on to broken promises by the State for agricultural activities and alternative revenues without fully changing forest use behaviours; 2) were influenced heavily by the ‘educational’ programmes by the State; 3) accepted the authority of the State and lack of participation in decision-making based on historical experiences and values; 4) justified their burdens by over-emphasising the positive aspects of the park. Our findings present a complementary framework to explain environmental justice claims, allowing for a nuanced analysis of how people respond to justices and injustices, and specifically how injustices can be identified through proven social science concepts.

%B Human Ecology %V 46 %P 93-105 %8 02/2018 %G eng %N 1 %1 NE/L001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %+ Yes %& 93 %R 10.1007/s10745-017-9941-2 %0 Journal Article %J Ecological Economics %D 2018 %T Payment for environmental "self-service": exploring the links between farmers' motivation and additionality in a conservation incentive programme in the Bolivian Andes %A Bottazzi, Patrick %A Jones, Julia P.G. %A Crespo, David %A Wiik, Emma %X

Neoclassical economic interpretations of Payment for Environmental Services (PES), which assume that participants weigh up costs and benefits, are making room for more complex analyses. However, there is still little evidence of how PES programmes interact with existing motivations to conserve, the extent to which funded conservation is additional, and the likely permanence of changes. We categorized the outcome of contracts aiming to reduce cattle grazing in riparian forest (n=428) and deforestation (n=912) by Bolivian farmers in terms of whether they were unsuitable, non-compliant, non-additional, or additional (the holy grail of PES programmes) and explored the relationship between farmers' reported motivations and the extent to which the conservation funded was additional. Up to 39% of contracts to exclude cattle, and 14% to prevent deforestation appear to be additional. Where participation is motivated by the instrumental values of nature (such as provision of clean water) contracts to exclude cattle from riparian forest are more likely to represent additional conservation. We suggest that the programme is partly acting as what we term ‘payment for environmental self-service’; i.e. the external incentives enable changes in behaviour motivated by farmers' perceptions of environmental benefits they receive from the management changes incentivized.

%B Ecological Economics %V 150 %P 11-23 %G eng %1 ne/l001470/1 %2 ne-l001470-1 %4 Bolivia %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.03.032 %0 Journal Article %J Sustainable Development %D 2018 %T Poorer without It? The neglected role of the natural environment in poverty and wellbeing %A Schleicher, Judith %A Schaafsma, Marije %A Burgess, Neil D. %A Sandbrook, Chris %A Danks, Fiona %A Cowie, Chris %A Vira, Bhaskar %X The relationship between sustainable development's prime goal, human wellbeing, and the natural environment has been narrowly conceived. This paper focuses on the possibility and the implications of treating the natural environment as a ‘constituent’, or internal element, of the concepts of wellbeing and poverty, as opposed to a ‘determinant’, or instrumental, external factor. Our review of philosophical accounts and conceptual frameworks of wellbeing and poverty suggests that treating the environment as a constituent element is philosophically sound, conceptually robust and empirically grounded. We argue that failing to consider these missing environmental aspects can result in an incomplete capturing of the multiple dimensions of wellbeing and poverty, and their underlying drivers. This broader framing of the environment–wellbeing relationship has the potential to inform a new generation of individual level wellbeing and poverty indicators, creating measures of multidimensional poverty that reflect the broadened scope ambitiously articulated in the Sustainable Development Goals. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Sustainable Development published by ERP Environment and John Wiley & Sons Ltd %B Sustainable Development %G eng %1 ne/m00760x/1 %2 ne-m00760x-1 %4 Global %# 000424392200006 %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/sd.1692 %0 Journal Article %J World Development %D 2018 %T The potential of the Global Person Generated Index for evaluating the perceived impacts of conservation interventions on subjective well-being %A Rasolofoson, Ranaivo A. %A Nielsen, Martin R. %A Jones, Julia P.G. %X

There is growing interest in the importance of ensuring that biodiversity conservation is not achieved at the expense of local people’s well-being. It has been suggested that when evaluating the impact of an intervention, the affected population should be allowed to define well-being (requiring a subjective measure), and impacts (requiring a participatory approach), but very few, if any, conservation evaluations live up to these standards. We used a participatory impact evaluation approach with the Global Person Generated Index (GPGI) to investigate the relative impacts of strict protection and community forest management on local well-being in Madagascar’s rainforests. The GPGI captures the subjective and multidimensional nature of well-being by asking respondents to identify the five most important domains for their quality of life, to evaluate their own performance in each domain, and the relative importance of the five identified domains. Participatory impact evaluation establishes local perceptions of the cause-effect relationship between an intervention and respondents’ performance in each domain. Over half the respondents perceived no positive or negative impacts from the conservation interventions. We found no significant difference between strict protection and community forest management in the measures we used to examine the magnitude of their relative impacts, but there were differences in the characteristics of domains impacted and in the priority domains that could be targeted to improve well-being in locally meaningful ways. Because of its subjectivity, the GPGI cannot provide quantitative information on the magnitude of impacts. Its strength lies in the wealth of information it provides on what life domains people value and their performance in these domains. Combined with the participatory impact evaluation approach, the GPGI provides highly relevant insights that can be used to improve interventions in ways which increase the local legitimacy and acceptability of conservation initiatives.

%B World Development %V 105 %P 107-118 %G eng %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %4 Madagascar %# 000428973300009 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.032 %0 Journal Article %J Earth-science Reviews %D 2018 %T Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes - impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead %A Vuille, Mathias %A Carey, Mark %A Huggel, Christian %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Rabatel, Antoine %A Jacobsen, Dean %A Soruco, Alvaro %A Villacis, Marcos %A Yarleque, Christian %A Timm, Oliver Elison %A Condom, Thomas %A Salzmann, Nadine %A Sicart, Jean-Emmanuel %X Glaciers in the tropical Andes have been retreating for the past several decades, leading to a temporary increase in dry season water supply downstream. Projected future glacier shrinkage, however, will lead to a long-term reduction in dry season river discharge from glacierized catchments. This glacier retreat is closely related to the observed increase in high-elevation, surface air temperature in the region. Future projections using a simple freezing level height- equilibrium-line altitude scaling approach suggest that glaciers in the inner tropics, such as Antizana in Ecuador, may be most vulnerable to future warming while glaciers in the more arid outer tropics, such as Zongo in Bolivia, may persist, albeit in a smaller size, throughout the 21st century regardless of emission scenario. Nonetheless many uncertainties persist, most notably problems with accurate snowfall measurements in the glacier accumulation zone, uncertainties in establishing accurate thickness measurements on glaciers, unknown future changes associated with local-scale circulation and cloud cover affecting glacier energy balance, the role of aerosols and in particular black carbon deposition on Andean glaciers, and the role of groundwater and aquifers interacting with glacier meltwater. The reduction in water supply for export-oriented agriculture, mining, hydropower production and human consumption are the most commonly discussed concerns associated with glacier retreat, but many other aspects including glacial hazards, tourism and recreation, and ecosystem integrity are also affected by glacier retreat. Social and political problems surrounding water allocation for subsistence farming have led to conflicts due to lack of adequate water governance. Local water management practices in many regions reflect cultural belief systems, perceptions and spiritual values and glacier retreat in some places is seen as a threat to these local livelihoods. Comprehensive adaptation strategies, if they are to be successful, therefore need to consider science, policy, culture and practice, and involve local populations. Planning needs to be based not only on future scenarios derived from physically-based numerical models, but must also consider societal needs, economic agendas, political conflicts, socioeconomic inequality and cultural values. This review elaborates on the need for adaptation as well as the challenges and constraints many adaptation projects are faced with, and lays out future directions where opportunities exist to develop successful, culturally acceptable and sustainable adaptation strategies. %B Earth-science Reviews %I ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV %V 176 %P 195-213 %G eng %N 11 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000424188800009 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.09.019 %M 0012-8252 %0 Report %D 2018 %T Research for development impact: The role of equitable partnerships %A ESPA Directorate %X

Research partnerships between institutions in the global North and global South are widely seen as critical in supporting evidence-based action to address the global issues of sustainable development. Academia is grappling with the challenge of ensuring that partnerships are non-hierarchical, are built on mutual understanding and trust, and reflect the different partners’ values and priorities. Funders consistently call for partnerships to be ‘equitable’, yet operational conditions can run counter to these stated intentions and create disincentives for equity.

This briefing summarises the key learnings that emerged from the ESPA programme in promoting research partnership to achieve development impact. It is based on a comprehensive review of ESPA documentation, including project proposals and reports, an online survey and semi-structured key informant interviews.

Key messages

Building relationships is a long-term process. The first collaboration among two partners may not be the most ‘impactful’, but may lay the foundations for longer-term collaboration.

Money affects power relations among partners. Northern institutions are usually in charge of managing the budget, and this inevitably affects power dynamics. The implications need to be recognised and openly discussed.

Different incentive structures matter. An equitable partnership is one where the interests and incentives of all partners receive fair recognition.

Successful partnerships are built on mutual trust. Ensuring transparency and accountability can go a long way in promoting trust among partners. Adopting an equity framework – structured around the dimensions of recognition, procedure and distribution – can help identify where challenges lie, and the ways they can be addressed.

%G eng %0 Generic %D 2018 %T Research helps ensure that forest conservation does not harm the poorest %A ESPA Directorate %X

An ESPA project has provided recommendations to the government and other stakeholders in Madagascar to ensure that both environmental and livelihoods considerations are taken into account within its national programme for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Specifically: 

%G eng %0 Working Publication %D 2018 %T Research with development impact %A ESPA Directorate %X

The ESPA programme was established in 2009 to investigate how ecosystem services can support – or undermine – poverty alleviation efforts and communities’ wellbeing in developing countries, and to provide relevant evidence to inform policy and practice. This was an ambitious attempt to produce research that not only met standards of academic excellence, but was also relevant and usable for policy and practice. At the time of the programme’s design, the concept of ‘impact’ as an indicator of research performance was just starting to emerge in the United Kingdom (UK).

Over nearly a decade of ESPA’s lifespan, pressure has mounted for academics to provide ‘research that matters’ to underpin action on major global challenges such as poverty, climate change and environmental degradation. In this sense, ESPA acted as a ‘useful testing ground for understanding how to meet these new requirements and adapt to a paradigm shift in research funding and evaluation’. As an integral part of its legacy, this paper aims to share lessons in a way that can be relevant for funders and managers of programmes with similar focus and ambition.

%0 Journal Article %J Marine Policy %D 2018 %T Restoring near-shore marine ecosystems to enhance climate security for island ocean states: aligning international processes and local practices %A Wilson, A. Meriwether W. %A Forsyth, Catherine %X This article contributes to a special issue examining SDG 14 and other international policy instruments for effective implementation of the Goal. This article focuses on island ocean states (IOS), or ‘small island developing states’ (SIDS), which are characterized by limited land and oceanic remoteness, creating local and international dependencies for food, livelihoods, trade and transport. While IOS contribute less than 1% to global green-house gases, they are directly impacted by extreme weather and climate change, in particular sea level rise. Near-shore marine ecosystems (mangroves, seagrasses and coral reefs) provide critical coastal protection and other benefits (e.g. fisheries), yet continue to be degraded from coastal development. Given their importance, restoration is needed where ecosystem function has declined, in concert with conservation of healthy sites. The overall restoration goals for IOS are to: i) enhance ecological integrity, ii) inspire local capacity building, and iii) accelerate climate change adaptation. This article examines the scope for such restoration through the UN SDGs, the Biodiversity Convention, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Paris Agreement. Practical considerations of near-shore restoration are reviewed, emphasizing local and traditional knowledge regarding past and future perspectives. The article concludes with policy recommendations to integrate near-shore marine restoration across climate adaptation, conservation and planning processes to achieve synergies in effectiveness, essential to IOS settings. The UN SDGs provide a timely platform for IOS to align international processes with local needs to address their own goals in balancing population growth, economic development, food security and climate security. %B Marine Policy %G eng %1 ne/m007650/1 %2 ne-m007650-1 %4 Global %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.marpol.2018.01.018 %0 Working Publication %D 2018 %T Scaling up climate-smart agriculture: Lessons from ESPA research %A Marije Schaafsma %A Andrew Bell %X

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for developing agricultural strategies to secure sustainable food security under climate change. CSA has three inter-related objectives, where the first two objectives are emphasised in low-income situations:

1. Food security: sustainably increasing crop yields and productivity and improving farmer incomes;

2. Improving adaptation and building farmers’ resilience to climate change; and

3. Improving mitigation (when and where possible): reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions.

ESPA’s goal is to ensure that ecosystems are conserved and managed more sustainably, in ways that alleviate poverty and enhance wellbeing. ESPA is concerned that CSA is developed in an equitable way that helps all people to move out of poverty. Comparing ten ESPA projects that focus on agriculture – of which two directly focus on CSA – provides some insight into the opportunities and challenges for scaling up CSA. This synthesis outlines the ESPA evidence from these ten projects, interpreting the findings and implications within the frame of CSA, as well as priorities of the Ecosystem-Based Adaptation for Food Security Assembly (EBAFOSA).

%1 FELL-2014-104 %2 fell-2014-104 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2018 %T Stories in social-ecological knowledge cocreation %A Galafassi, D %A Daw, T %A Thyresson, M %A Rosendo, S %A Chaigneau, T %A Bandeira, S %A Munyi, L %A Gabrielsson, I %A Brown, K %X Transformations in social-ecological systems to overturn poverty and ecosystem degradation require approaches to knowledge synthesis that are inclusive and open to creative innovation. We draw on interviews with participants and in-depth process observation of an iterative knowledge cocreation process in Kenya and Mozambique that brought together scientists, community representatives, government representatives, and practitioners who had expertise or experience in poverty and/or coastal natural resource use and management. We analyze the communicative spaces opened by techniques of system diagrams and future scenarios, and provide a rich account of the emergent process of developing a “shared conceptual repertoire” as a basis for effective communication and knowledge synthesis. Our results highlight the difficulties of challenging dominant narratives and the creative potential that exists in reflecting on their underpinning assumptions. In our analysis, stories and lived experiences emerged as key means shaping the construction of shared concepts and ideas. We conclude by outlining the implications of designing knowledge cocreation processes that support the task of devising systemic interventions that are robust for a range of future scenarios. This includes embracing the role of stories in generating shared meanings and opening up spaces for exploration of knowledge assumptions that are embedded in intervention narratives. %B Ecology and Society %V 23 %G eng %1 ne/k010484/1 %2 ne-k010484-1 %4 Kenya; Mozambique %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/ES-09932-230123 %0 Generic %D 2018 %T Traditional knowledge improves water management in rural and urban Peru %X

Using inexpensive, replicable and ancient technologies to improve water management in the Peruvian highlands, an ESPA project has benefited both rural upstream communities and the downstream capital city, Lima. 

In the Peruvian highlands communities depend on water sources for their livelihoods and cattle, which can lead to overgrazing and jeopardise water flows due to sediment build-up. Downstream, Lima depends on these water sources to provide for its population and agriculture. Historically, data has not been sufficient regarding the environmental management of these highland regions and their role in securing fresh water flows downstream – making it difficult to plan interventions.

This ESPA project found that overgrazing has a significant effect on the variability of river flows, due to sediment build-up.The team investigated and developed low-cost monitoring equipment, and tested and restored an ancient hydrological technique, mamanteo, as an example of an inexpensive way to manage water flows effectively.Using this research as a case study, Lima’s water utility is investing US$23 million in ‘green infrastructure’, with US$1 million allocated for mamanteo restoration.

%G eng %0 Journal Article %D 2018 %T Transpiration and stomatal conductance of young secondary forest trees and invasive understorey shrubs in upland eastern Madagascar %A Chandra P Ghimire %A L A Bruijnzeel %A M W Lubczynski %A Bob W Zwartendijk %A Vincent O Odongo %A Maafaka Ravelona %A H J vanMeerveld %X

It has been suggested that vigorous secondary tropical forests can have very high transpiration rates, but sap flow and stomatal conductance dynamics of trees and shrubs in these forests are understudied. In an effort to address this knowledge gap, sap flow (thermal dissipation method, 12 trees) and stomatal conductance (porometry, six trees) were measured for young (5–7 years) Psiadia altissima (DC.) Drake trees, a widely occurring species dominating young regrowth following abandonment of swidden agriculture in upland eastern Madagascar. In addition, stomatal conductance (gs) was determined for three individuals of two locally common invasive shrubs (Lantana camara L. and Rubus moluccanus L.) during three periods with contrasting soil moisture conditions. Values of gs for the three investigated species were significantly higher and more sensitive to climatic conditions during the wet period compared with the dry period. Further, gs of the understorey shrubs was much more sensitive to soil moisture content than that of the trees. Tree transpiration rates (Ec) were relatively stable during the dry season and were only affected somewhat by soil water content at the end of the dry season, suggesting the trees had continued access to soil water despite drying out of the topsoil. The Ec exhibited a plateau-shaped relation with vapour pressure deficit (VPD), which was attributed to stomatal closure at high VPD. Vapour pressure deficit was the major driver of variation in Ec, during both the wet and the dry season. Overall water use of the trees was modest, possibly reflecting low site fertility after three swidden cultivation cycles. The observed contrast in gs response to soil water and climatic conditions for the trees and shrubs underscores the need to take root distributions into account when modelling transpiration from regenerating tropical forests.

%G eng %K https://academic.oup.com/treephys/advance-article/doi/10.1093/treephys/tpy004/4980879 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2018 %T Uncovering the economic value of natural enemies and true costs of chemical insecticides to cotton farmers in China %A Jikun Huang %A Ke Zhou %A Wei Zhang %A Xiangzheng Deng %A Wopke van der Werf %A Yanhui Lu %A Kongming Wu %A Mark Rosegrant %X

Little empirical evidence on economic value of biological control of pests at farm level is available to improve economic decision-making by farmers and policy makers. Using insect sampling and household survey in an integrated bio-economic analysis framework, this paper studies farmers' crop management practices in cotton in the North China Plain, and estimates the marginal value of natural enemies and costs of chemical insecticides to farmers. Ladybeetles (mainly Harmonia axyridis, Propylea japonica, and Coccinella septempunctata), the dominant natural enemy group that controls the primary pest (aphid) in cotton in our study area, provide a significant economic benefit that is unknown to the farmers. Even at the current high levels of insecticide use, additional ladybeetle provides an economic benefit of 0.05 CNY (USD 0.01) to farmers. The use of broad-spectrum insecticides by farmers is alarmingly excessive, not only undermining farmers' profitability but also inducing social costs as well as disruption of the natural pest suppression system. Doubling current ladybeetle density in cotton field could gain an estimated USD 300 million for cotton farmers in China, providing a strong economic case for policies to move the pest control system toward a more ecologically-based regime, with positive consequences for farm income and environmental health. With rising use of biological control service provided by natural enemies in cotton fields, significant falls in farmers' insecticide use would be expected, which could raise the value of ladybeetles and other natural enemies even further. The results indicate that there is an urgent need to rationalize inputs and move forward to improved agro-ecosystem management in smallholder farming system. Raising knowledge and awareness on the costs and value of biological pest control versus insecticides among farmers and policy makers and having effective extension service are priorities toward achieving a more ecologically-based approach to crop protection on smallholder farms.

%B Environmental Research Letters %G eng %K http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabfb0 %1 NE/I004335/1 %2 ne-i004335-1 %+ Yes %0 Journal Article %J Climate and Development %D 2018 %T Vulnerability of Ghanaian women cocoa farmers to climate change: a typology %A Friedman, Rachel %A Hirons, Mark %A Boyd, Emily %X Climate change, increasingly recognized as a hurdle to achieving sustainable development goals, has already begun impacting the lives and livelihoods of people around the world, including on the African continent. Vulnerability is a concept often employed in the context of climate change to identify risks and develop policy and adaptation measures that address current and projected impacts. However, it is situated in a broader social context, driven by factors such as land tenure and access, livelihood diversification, and empowerment, which single out historically marginalized groups like women. This paper applies a vulnerability framework to a case study of cocoa farming in the Central Region of Ghana, depicting not only the variety of factors contributing to climate change vulnerability but also different narratives on vulnerability that emerge based on a woman’s relation to cocoa production itself. The paper conveys how homogeneous representations of women farmers and the technical focus of climate-orientated policy interventions may threaten to further marginalize the most vulnerable and exacerbate existing inequalities. This has implications for both climate change policy design and implementation, as well as the broader social development agenda that has bearing on vulnerability. %B Climate and Development %G eng %1 ne/k010379/1 %2 ne-k010379-1 %4 Ethiopia; Ghana %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/17565529.2018.1442806 %0 Report %D 2018 %T Wellbeing: for whom and how? %A ESPA Directorate %X

Environment-related policies and programmes are often assumed to generate ‘win-wins’ for communities and the environment. In reality, they can work against people who are already disadvantaged.

After nine years of research, spanning 125 projects in over 50 countries, the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme is calling for a stronger focus on the quality of life for disadvantaged people, based on approaches that recognise the multiple dimensions of their wellbeing.

Key messages of this ESPA Policy and Practice Brief include:

1. Research suggests that ‘win-win’ assumptions about links between ecosystem services and human prosperity should be treated with caution: what looks like a ‘win-win’ may involve hidden trade-offs that harm disadvantaged people.

2. Those who are most disadvantaged are also the most dependent on their natural environment and, at the same time, most likely to be marginalised by policy interventions that ignore links between the environment and their wellbeing.

3. Wellbeing is a multidimensional phenomenon that goes beyond income to include subjective cultural values, relationships and access to resources, as well as varying personal aspirations.

4. The benefits of ecosystem services are often distributed unfairly because of formal and informal governance processes – that work against the interests of disadvantaged people, fuelling structural or historical marginalisation related to, for example, gender and indigenous cultures.

5. Environment-related development interventions that emphasise justice, equity and governance from the outset could enhance nature’s positive contributions to people’s wellbeing.

6. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is encouraged to build on its existing work on nature’s contributions to people (NCP) and quality of life by enhancing:

• its work on multidimensional aspects of wellbeing and their variations across social groups, and;

• understanding of the influence of formal and informal institutions on access to NCP for different social groups.

7. This aligns well with the broader development aims of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), contributing to their ambition to ‘leave no one behind’.

%G eng %0 Report %D 2018 %T ΔDIEM: Using scenarios to inform pro-poor policy-making %A Robert Nicholls %A Craig Hutton %E Naomi Marks %X

A sophisticated model now being trialled in coastal Bangladesh can help decision-makers in some of the world’s most challenging regions meet development and environmental policy targets, benefiting the many millions of poor people whose livelihoods are threatened by climate change.

This Tools and Frameworks briefing from the ESPA Deltas project describes how:

• The Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) incorporates biophysical, socioeconomic and governance processes and data, and tracks change over time to consider a range of plausible futures.

• ΔDIEM offers policy-makers valuable information on how household incomes can be affected by different interventions under a range of scenarios, offering the potential for decision-making that integrates development, environmental and poverty imperatives to better meet national and international targets.

• The model is helping to inform decision-making in Bangladesh, where the livelihoods and wellbeing of tens of millions of people in the Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna delta are threatened by ecosystem degradation and climate change.

• In a trial of the ΔDIEM tool, new polders in the south-central district of the delta region resulted in a 24% increase in agricultural production and a 25% reduction in extreme poverty. The polders were the most pro-poor of three development interventions that the team evaluated (assuming other factors remained unchanged).

• ΔDIEM has the potential to be adapted to inform decision-making in other climate-vulnerable regions, where conditions of uncertainty prevail and where there are many drivers of change.

%I ESPA %C Edinburgh, UK %G eng %1 NE/J002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %0 Journal Article %J Remote Sensing Applications: Society And Environment %D 2017 %T Application of cellular automata and Markov-chain model in geospatial environmental modeling- A review %A Pramit Ghosh %A Anirban Mukhopadhyay %A Abhra Chanda %A Parimal Mondal %A Anirban Akhand %A Sandip Mukherjee %A S.K. Nayak %A Subhajit Ghosh %A Debasish Mitra %A Tuhin Ghosh %A Sugata Hazra %X

Cellular Automata (CA) & Markov-Chain modeling are concepts that are utilized in numerous branches of science. Powerful as they are independently, these two theoretical concepts can be of immense use when fused together and applied in practical situations. CA and Markov models have spread their wraths over geosciences and with the advancement of remote sensing and GIS technologies along with an exponential increase in computing and modeling power. Over the last few years, these concepts have found a solid ground for research in this domain of geospatial environmental modeling in earth sciences. It is widely used to characterize the dynamics of land use/cover, forest cover, urban sprawl, wetland landscape, plant growth and modeling of watershed management, suitable site selection, coastal zone management and so forth. This paper aims to categorize these researches into broad categories. This paper discusses the concepts of CA-Markov modeling and their backgrounds and is followed by a classification of the researches conducted in this domain into two broad groups, one being the development of concepts and the adopted methodologies, while the other discusses the application of these methods in solving and studying real world scenarios. Recent developments in this domain have been observed which uses concepts and technologies previously unused in conjunction to CA. However, several limitations like non-accountability of human influences, unavailability of high resolution imagery, primary discrepancy between the simulations of CA with GIS, human decision making were also addressed in details. At the same time numerous advancements like inclusion of fuzzy logic, possibility of textural classification, removing biases in simulation and developing a CA-based 2D and 3D land use simulation module are elaborated which are at present showing some promising avenues wherein significant research can be done in future.

%B Remote Sensing Applications: Society And Environment %V 5 %P 64-77 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.rsase.2017.01.005 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management %D 2017 %T Assessing and mapping cultural ecosystem services at community level in the Colombian Amazon %A Angarita-Baéz, Jenny A. %A Pérez-Miñana, Elena %A Beltrán Vargas, Julio E. %A Ruiz Agudelo, Cesar A. %A Paez Ortiz, Andres %A Palacios, Erwin %A Willcock, Simon %X Understanding the significance that cultural ecosystem services (CES) have for traditional communities will provide useful input to the design of more appropriate regional or territorial plans for the area in which they are located. We conducted semi-structured surveys in 11 indigenous communities within the corregimiento La Pedrera, of the Colombian Amazon. We analysed the CES established in the region through a study of their preferences in relation to the service providing units (SPUs) identified, using the Shannon diversity index method as an indicator of‘diversity of use’. More CES were identified in communities with a larger popula- tion; education and recreation were the two most prevalent CES categories in the study area. Our findings also highlight the cultural importance of bodies of water, which were strongly linked with Spiritual and Sense of Place CES. Furthermore, the integration of qualitative and quantitative assessments enables a better understanding of the importance CES which have for the local communities involved in the study and may assist in the management of the indigenous territory. %B International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management %V 13 %P 280-296 %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1080/21513732.2017.1345981 %0 Journal Article %J Conservation Letters %D 2017 %T Assessing equity in protected area governance: Approaches to promote just and effective conservation %A Dawson, Neil %A Martin, Adrian %A Danielsen, Finn %X

With the inclusion of equity concerns in Aichi Target 11 of the Convention on Biological Diversity, equitable management has become an important objective for the world's protected areas. The way equity is defined and operationalized influences whether this strategic shift can help identify pathways commensurate with conservation effectiveness. We examined equity around a protected area in Laos, combining quantitative and qualitative methods to explore the three dimensions of procedure, recognition, and distribution. Local understandings of equity depended on discrete, evolving issues, with attention to informal decision making and dynamic values required to uncover suitable solutions. We show that equity definitions focused on material distribution and assessments reliant on standardized indicators may result in inadequate responses that sustain local perceptions of inequitable management and miss opportunities for effective conservation. Equity should be considered a management goal to continually adapt toward, informed by stakeholder dialogue.

%B Conservation Letters %P 1-8 %G eng %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %4 Lao PDR %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/conl.12388 %M 1755-263X %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2017 %T Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: impacts on ecosystems and human well-being %A Pecl, Gretta T. %A Araujo, Miguel B. %A Bell, Johann D. %A Blanchard, Julia %A Bonebrake, Timothy C. %A Chen, I-Ching %A Clark, Timothy D. %A Colwell, Robert K. %A Danielsen, Finn %A Evengard, Birgitta %A Falconi, Lorena %A Ferrier, Simon %A Frusher, Stewart %A Garcia, Raquel A. %A Griffis, Roger B. %A Hobday, Alistair J. %A Janion-Scheepers, Charlene %A Jarzyna, Marta A. %A Jennings, Sarah %A Lenoir, Jonathan %A Linnetved, Hlif I. %A Martin, Victoria Y. %A McCormack, Phillipa C. %A McDonald, Jan %A Mitchell, Nicola J. %A Mustonen, Tero %A Pandolfi, John M. %A Pettorelli, Nathalie %A Popova, Ekaterina %A Robinson, Sharon A. %A Scheffers, Brett R. %A Shaw, Justine D. %A Sorte, Cascade J. B. %A Strugnell, Jan M. %A Sunday, Jennifer M. %A Tuanmu, Mao-Ning %A Verges, Adriana %A Villanueva, Cecilia %A Wernberg, Thomas %A Wapstra, Erik %A Williams, Stephen E. %X Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals. %B Science %I AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE %V 355 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/m007545/1 %2 ne-m007545-1 %3 56 %4 Madagascar %# 000397809500032 %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1126/science.aai9214 %M 0036-8075 %0 Report %D 2017 %T Biofuels in Malawi: local impacts %A A. Gasparatos %A F.X. Johnson %A G. von Maltitz %A D. Luhanga %A A. Nyambane %A T. Gondwe %X

This ESPA Policy & Practice Brief by Alexandros Gasparatos et al. assesses whether sugarcane and jatropha production have helped tackle poverty in rural Malawi. They conclude:

 

%G eng %1 NE/L001373/1 %2 ne-l001373-1 %0 Journal Article %J PLOS ONE %D 2017 %T Carbon storage in the seagrass meadows of Gazi Bay, Kenya %A M.M. Githaiga %A J.G. Kairo %A L. Gilpin %A M. Huxham %X

Vegetated marine habitats are globally important carbon sinks, making a significant contribution towards mitigating climate change, and they provide a wide range of other ecosystem services. However, large gaps in knowledge remain, particularly for seagrass meadows in Africa. The present study estimated biomass and sediment organic carbon (Corg) stocks of four dominant seagrass species in Gazi Bay, Kenya. It compared sediment Corg between seagrass areas in vegetated and un-vegetated ‘controls’, using the naturally patchy occurence of seagrass at this site to test the impacts of seagrass growth on sediment Corg. It also explored relationships between the sediment and above-ground Corg, as well as between the total biomass and above-ground parameters. Sediment Corg was significantly different between species, range: 160.7–233.8 Mg C ha-1 (compared to the global range of 115.3 to 829.2 Mg C ha-1). Vegetated areas in all species had significantly higher sediment Corg compared with un-vegetated controls; the presence of seagrass increased Corg by 4–6 times. Biomass carbon differed significantly between species with means ranging between 4.8–7.1 Mg C ha-1 compared to the global range of 2.5–7.3 Mg C ha-1. To our knowledge, these are among the first results on seagrass sediment Corg to be reported from African seagrass beds; and contribute towards our understanding of the role of seagrass in global carbon dynamics.

%B PLOS ONE %V 12 %G eng %K http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0177001 %N 5 %1 NE/L001535/1 %2 ne-l001535-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0177001 %0 Journal Article %J World Development Perspectives %D 2017 %T Charcoal income as a means to a valuable end: Scope and limitations of income from rural charcoal production to alleviate acute multidimensional poverty %A Frank Vollmer %A Pedro Zorilla-Miras %A Sophia Baumert %A Ana Catarina Luz %A Emily Woollen %A Isla Grundy %A Luis Artur %A Natasha Ribeiro %A Mansour Mahamane %A Genevieve Patenaude %X

The charcoal industry is among the most important semiformal economic sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa and a key cash income source for local households who produce it. This has intensified the debate as to the role of income from charcoal production in the alleviation of rural poverty. While in a number of cases charcoal production has been identified as a potential alleviator of monetary poverty, this paper takes as its departure point a lack of analysis on the effect of charcoal income on acute multidimensional poverty (AMP). This is understood as the inability of household members to meet minimum national and international standards and core functionings. This study used primary data from an important charcoal supplying region in southern Mozambique (N = 312). The Alkire-Foster method was used to aggregate AMP in nine composite indicators. Generalised linear models were used to assess the marginal effect of charcoal income on AMP, controlling for other determinants. Our findings show a high intensity (67.7%) and prevalence of AMP (0.429) in the study area (n = 261). 59% of the identified non-monetary poor from charcoal making are identified as acute multidimensionally poor. Charcoal income is found to be positively correlated with valuable household assets, and charcoal production increases the resistance to impoverishment in certain circumstances. However, charcoal income was not found to be a statistically significant determinant of AMP, even for the most productive charcoal makers. This highlights the enormous barriers both producers and non-producers of charcoal alike face in this region in order to overcome AMP. Our findings thus challenge the perception that charcoal income can sufficiently alleviate poverty, particularly when a multidimensional perspective is adopted. Reductions and eventual eliminations of AMP require a concentrated cross-sectional whole-of-government approach to tackle poverty in its multidimensional breadth and complexity, while attempts at making the charcoal industry more inclusive and equitable should be accelerated.

%B World Development Perspectives %V 7-8 %P 43-60 %8 09/2017 %G eng %1 NE/K010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %+ Yes %& 43 %R 10.1016/j.wdp.2017.11.005 %0 Journal Article %J Human Ecology %D 2017 %T Children and wild foods in the context of deforestation in rural Malawi %A H. Maseko %A C.M. Shackleton %A J. Nagoli %A D. Pullanikkatil %X

There is growing recognition of the contribution of wild foods to local diets, nutrition, and culture. Yet disaggregation of understanding of wild food use by gender and age is limited. We used a mixed methods approach to determine the types, frequencies, and perceptions of wild foods used and sold by children in four villages in southern Malawi that have different levels of deforestation. Household and individual dietary diversity scores are low at all sites. All households consume one or more wild foods. Across the four sites, children listed 119 wild foods, with a wider variety at the least deforested sites than the most deforested ones. Older children can name more wild foods than younger ones. More children from poor households sell wild foods than from well-off households. Several reasons were provided for the consumption or avoidance of wild foods (most commonly taste, contribution to health, limited alternatives, hunger, availability, local taboos).

%B Human Ecology %V 45 %P 795-807 %G eng %K https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10745-017-9956-8 %N 6 %1 NE/J002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s10745-017-9956-8 %0 Report %D 2017 %T Citizen science and web-based modelling tools for managing freshwater %A Bhopal Pandeya %A Wouter Buytaert %X %I Imperial College London %C London %G eng %K https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/Citizen-science-and-web-based-modelling-tools-for-managing-freshwater-Grantham-BN-4.pdf %1 NE/K010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Hydrometeorology %D 2017 %T Comparative ground validation of IMERG and TMPA at variable spatiotemporal scales in the tropical Andes %A Manz, Bastian %A Paez-Bimos, Sebastian %A Horna, Natalia %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Ochoa-Tocachi, Boris %A Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo %A Willems, Bram %X An initial ground validation of the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Day-1 product from March 2014 to August 2015 is presented for the tropical Andes. IMERG was evaluated along with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) against 302 quality-controlled rain gauges across Ecuador and Peru. Detection, quantitative estimation statistics, and probability distribution functions are calculated at different spatial (0.1°, 0.25°) and temporal (1 h, 3 h, daily) scales. Precipitation products are analyzed for hydrometeorologically distinct subregions. Results show that IMERG has a superior detection and quantitative rainfall intensity estimation ability than TMPA, particularly in the high Andes. Despite slightly weaker agreement of mean rainfall fields, IMERG shows better characterization of gauge observations when separating rainfall detection and rainfall rate estimation. At corresponding space–time scales, IMERG shows better estimation of gauge rainfall probability distributions than TMPA. However, IMERG shows no improvement in both rainfall detection and rainfall rate estimation along the dry Peruvian coastline, where major random and systematic errors persist. Further research is required to identify which rainfall intensities are missed or falsely detected and how errors can be attributed to specific satellite sensor retrievals. The satellite–gauge difference was associated with the point-area difference in spatial support between gauges and satellite precipitation products, particularly in areas with low and irregular gauge network coverage. Future satellite–gauge evaluations need to identify such locations and investigate more closely interpixel point-area differences before attributing uncertainties to satellite products. %B Journal Of Hydrometeorology %I AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC %V 18 %P 2469-2489 %G eng %N 9 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000417351800008 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0277.1 %M 1525-755X %0 Journal Article %J Critical Public Health %D 2017 %T Comparison of social resistance to Ebola response in Sierra Leone and Guinea suggests explanations lie in political configurations not culture %A Wilkinson, Annie %A Fairhead, James %X

Sierra Leone and Guinea share broadly similar cultural worlds, straddling the societies of the Upper Guinea Coast with Islamic West Africa. There was, however, a notable difference in their reactions to the Ebola epidemic. As the epidemic spread in Guinea, acts of violent or everyday resistance to outbreak control measures repeatedly followed, undermining public health attempts to contain the crisis. In Sierra Leone, defiant resistance was rarer. Instead of looking to 'culture' to explain patterns of social resistance (as was common in the media and in the discourse of responding public health authorities) a comparison between Sierra Leone and Guinea suggests that explanations lie in divergent political practice and lived experiences of the state. In particular the structures of state authority through which the national epidemic response were organised integrated very differently with trusted institutions in each country. Predicting and addressing social responses to epidemic control measures should assess such political-trust configurations when planning interventions.

%B Critical Public Health %I ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD %V 27 %P 14-27 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000390126800003 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1080/09581596.2016.1252034 %M 0958-1596 %0 Journal Article %J Marine Policy %D 2017 %T Connecting SDG 14 with the other Sustainable Development Goals through marine spatial planning %A Ntona, Mara %A Morgera, Elisa %X This article endeavours to contribute to the growing body of scholarship on SDG linkages by placing at the centre of its focus SDG 14 on the “conservation and sustainable use of the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development.” This article conceptualises the intricate interconnections between SDG 14 and other Goals based on the diverse benefits provided to humankind by marine ecosystems (in other words, through an ecosystem services lens). It explores how this understanding may facilitate the transition to an “environment for well-being” approach to development through marine spatial planning (MSP), on the basis of emerging international guidance under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). By bringing marine ecosystem services and MSP into the discussion on SDG linkages, this article seeks to investigate the role of the ecosystem approach, and of fair and equitable benefit-sharing within it, in fostering participatory knowledge production, data-gathering and -sharing, mapping, strategic assessment and area-based management in the context of intensifying uses, multiple scales, needs and values around the marine environment. The article will assess to what extent MSP, building upon these tools and drawing on ecosystem services mapping, should be used to promote equity and prevent conflicts between stakeholders with contradictory demands for marine space and ecosystem services, with a view to enhancing synergies between SDG 14 and other SDGs. %B Marine Policy %G eng %1 ne/m007650/1 %2 ne-m007650-1 %4 Global %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.marpol.2017.06.020 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Conservation %D 2017 %T Costs of delivery approaches for providing livelihood projects to local communities as part of REDD+ programmes: An analysis from Madagascar %A MacKinnon, James L. %A Andriamaro, Luciano %A Rambeloson, Andoniaina %A Razafindrazakasoa, Mialy %A Harvey, Celia A. %X Providing benefits to local people from forest conservation programmes is an important issue for policy makers. Livelihood projects are a common way to provide benefits, but there is little information about their costs. We analysed 463 livelihood projects in the Ankeniheny-Zahamena Corridor Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) pilot project in Madagascar to understand how different approaches to delivering livelihood projects affect costs. We compared costs across four approaches: conservation agreements, small grants, direct implementation and application of social safeguards. The approach impacted overall costs and the proportion of funds reaching communities. Projects implemented as safeguards were most expensive and had the lowest proportion of expenditures reaching the community. Projects provided as part of conservation agreements directed the highest proportion of expenditures to communities. Our results highlight that how livelihood projects are delivered has implications for project costs and community benefits and should be an important consideration in the design and implementation of REDD+ and forest conservation policies. %B Environmental Conservation %P 1-9 %G eng %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %4 Madagascar %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1017/S0376892917000571 %0 Journal Article %J Marine Policy %D 2017 %T Delivering sustainable fisheries through adoption of a risk-based framework as part of an ecosystem approach to fisheries management %A Kenny, Andrew J. %A Campbell, Neil %A Koen-Alonso, Mariano %A Pepin, Pierre %A Diz, Daniela %X Recently, the role which fisheries play in the provision of marine ecosystem services has been more widely acknowledged, largely as a result in recent years of fisheries management organisations developing and adopting more ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management (EAFM). Accordingly, several important management and science challenges have been identified. We argue that these challenges represent a number of important steps which underpin effective science based fisheries management, and when taken together and integrated, offer a logical framework by which to best achieve an EAFM. The challenges, or steps of the framework, identified and described are, i. defining appropriate spatial management units based upon significant and coherent ecosystem production processes, ii. assessing multi-species stock dynamics, iii. developing mixed fisheries management approaches, and iv. assessing the impacts of fisheries on non-target species and ecosystem components. The paper considers how the knowledge gained from research on these challenges can be applied to a risk-based management framework as an essential step towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 with respect to the conservation and sustainable use of marine resources for sustainable development. %B Marine Policy %G eng %1 ne/m007650/1 %2 ne-m007650-1 %4 Global %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.marpol.2017.05.018 %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings Of The Royal Society B-biological Sciences %D 2017 %T Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories %A Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A. %A Graham, Nicholas A. J. %A Wilson, Shaun K. %A Jennings, Simon %A Perry, Chris T. %X

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the long-term maintenance of coral-dominated tropical ecosystems, and has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Coral bleaching and associated mortality events, which are predicted to become more frequent and intense, can alter the balance of different elements that are responsible for coral reef growth and maintenance. The geomorphic impacts of coral mass mortality have received relatively little attention, particularly questions concerning temporal recovery of reef carbonate production and the factors that promote resilience of reef growth potential. Here, we track the biological carbonate budgets of inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014, spanning the 1998 global bleaching event when these reefs lost more than 90% of coral cover. All 21 reefs had positive budgets in 1994, but in 2005 budgets were predominantly negative. By 2014, carbonate budgets on seven reefs were comparable with 1994, but on all reefs where an ecological regime shift to macroalgal dominance occurred, budgets remained negative through 2014. Reefs with higher massive coral cover, lower macroalgae cover and lower excavating parrotfish biomass in 1994 were more likely to have positive budgets post-bleaching. If mortality of corals from the 2016 bleaching event is as severe as that of 1998, our predictions based on past trends would suggest that six of eight reefs with positive budgets in 2014 would still have positive budgets by 2030. Our results highlight that reef accretion and framework maintenance cannot be assumed from the ecological state alone, and that managers should focus on conserving aspects of coral reefs that support resilient carbonate budgets.

%B Proceedings Of The Royal Society B-biological Sciences %I ROYAL SOC %V 284 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010484/1 %2 ne-k010484-1 %4 Kenya; Mozambique %# 000393414300017 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rspb.2016.2533 %M 0962-8452 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %D 2017 %T Ecosystem services from southern African woodlands and their future under global change %A Ryan, Casey M. %A Pritchard, Rose %A McNicol, Iain %A Owen, Matthew %A Fisher, Janet A. %A Lehmann, Caroline %X Miombo and mopane woodlands are the dominant land cover in southern Africa. Ecosystem services from these woodlands support the livelihoods of 100 M rural people and 50 M urban dwellers, and others beyond the region. Provisioning services contribute $9+2 billion /yr to rural livelihoods; 76% of energy used in the region is derived from woodlands; and traded woodfuels have an annual value of $780 M. Woodlands support much of the region’s agriculture through transfers of nutrients to fields and shifting cultivation. Woodlands store 18–24 PgC carbon, and harbour a unique and diverse flora and fauna that provides spiritual succour and attracts tourists. Longstanding processes that will impact service provision are the expansion of croplands (0.1 M km2; 2000–2014), harvesting of woodfuels (93 M tonnes /yr) and changing access arrangements. Novel, exogenous changes include large-scale land acquisitions (0.07 M km2; 2000–2015), climate change and rising CO2. The net ecological response to these changes is poorly constrained, as they act in different directions, and differentially on trees and grasses, leading to uncertainty in future service provision. Land-use change and socio-political dynamics are likely to be dominant forces of change in the short term, but important land-use dynamics remain unquantified. %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %V 371 %G eng %1 ne/k010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %4 Mozambique %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2015.0312 %0 Journal Article %J Preventive Veterinary Medicine %D 2017 %T Effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of livestock diseases %A Bett, B. %A Kiunga, P. %A Gachohi, J. %A Sindato, C. %A Mbotha, D. %A Robinson, T. %A Lindahl, J. %A Grace, D. %X

The planet's mean air and ocean temperatures have been rising over the last century because of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These changes have substantial effects on the epidemiology of infectious diseases. We describe direct and indirect processes linking climate change and infectious diseases in livestock with reference to specific case studies. Some of the studies are used to show a positive association between temperature and expansion of the geographical ranges of arthropod vectors (e.g. Culicoides imicola, which transmits bluetongue virus) while others are used to illustrate an opposite trend (e.g. tsetse flies that transmit a range of trypanosome parasites in sub-Saharan Africa). We further describe a positive association between extreme events: droughts and El Niflo/southern oscillation (ENSO) weather patterns and Rift Valley fever outbreaks in East Africa and some adaptation practices used to mitigate the impacts of climate change that may increase risk of exposure to infectious pathogens. We conclude by outlining mitigation and adaptation measures that can be used specifically in the livestock sector to minimize the impacts of climate change-associated livestock diseases. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

%B Preventive Veterinary Medicine %I ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV %V 137 %P 119-129 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000394193500003 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.11.019 %M 0167-5877 %0 Journal Article %J PLoS ONE %D 2017 %T Effects of flood irrigation on the risk of selected zoonotic pathogens in an arid and semi-arid area in the eastern Kenya %A Bett, Bernard %A Said, Mohammed Y. %A Sang, Rosemary %A Bukachi, Salome %A Wanyoike, Salome %A Kifugo, Shem C. %A Otieno, Fredrick %A Ontiri, Enoch %A Njeru, Ian %A Lindahl, Johanna %A Grace, Delia %X To investigate the effects of irrigation on land cover changes and the risk of selected zoonotic pathogens, we carried out a study in irrigated, pastoral and riverine areas in the eastern Kenya. Activities implemented included secondary data analyses to determine land use and land cover (LULC) changes as well as human, livestock and wildlife population trends; entomological surveys to characterize mosquitoes population densities and species distribution by habitat and season; and serological surveys in people to determine the risk of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), West Nile fever virus (WNV), dengue fever virus (DFV), Leptospira spp. and Brucella spp. Results demonstrate a drastic decline in vegetation cover over ˜25 years particularly in the irrigated areas where cropland increased by about 1,400% and non-farm land (under closed trees, open to closed herbaceous vegetation, bushlands and open trees) reduced by 30–100%. The irrigated areas had high densities of Aedes mcintoshi, Culex spp. and Mansonia spp. (important vectors for multiple arboviruses) during the wet and dry season while pastoral areas had high densities of Ae. tricholabis specifically in the wet season. The seroprevalences of RVFV, WNV and DFV were higher in the irrigated compared to the pastoral areas while those for Leptospira spp and Brucella spp. were higher in the pastoral compared to the irrigated areas. It is likely that people in the pastoral areas get exposed to Leptospira spp by using water fetched from reservoirs that are shared with livestock and wildlife, and to Brucella spp. by consuming raw or partially cooked animal-source foods such as milk and meat. This study suggests that irrigation increases the risk of mosquito-borne infections while at the same time providing a protective effect against zoonotic pathogens that thrive in areas with high livestock population densities. %B PLoS ONE %I PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE %V 12 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000402608700001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0172626 %M 1932-6203 %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Medical Entomology %D 2017 %T Effects of irrigation and rainfall on the population dynamics of Rift Valley fever and other arbovirus mosquito vectors in the epidemic-prone Tana River County, Kenya %A Sang, R. %A Lutomiah, J. %A Said, M. %A Makio, A. %A Koka, H. %A Koskei, E. %A Nyunja, A. %A Owaka, S. %A Matoke-Muhia, D. %A Bukachi, S. %A Lindahl, J. %A Grace, D. %A Bett, B. %X

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis that is found in most regions of sub-Saharan Africa, and it affects humans, livestock, and some wild ungulates. Outbreaks are precipitated by an abundance of mosquito vectors associated with heavy persistent rainfall with flooding. We determined the impact of flood-irrigation farming and the effect of environmental parameters on the ecology and densities of primary and secondary vectors of the RVF virus (RVFV) in an RVF-epidemic hotspot in the Tana River Basin, Kenya. Mosquito sampling was conducted in farms and villages (settlements) in an irrigated and a neighboring nonirrigated site (Murukani). Overall, a significantly higher number of mosquitoes were collected in farms in the irrigation scheme compared with villages in the same area (P< 0.001), or farms (P< 0.001), and villages (P = 0.03) in Murukani. In particular, key primary vectors of RVFV, Aedes mcintoshi Marks and Aedes ochraceous Theobald, were more prevalent in the farms compared with villages in the irrigation scheme (P = 0.001) both during the dry and the wet seasons. Similarly, there was a greater abundance of secondary vectors, particularly Culex univittatus Theobald and Culex pipiens (L.) in the irrigation scheme than in the Murukani area. Rainfall and humidity were positively correlated with mosquito densities, particularly the primary vectors. Adult floodwater mosquitoes and Mansonia spp. were collected indoors; immatures of Ae. mcintoshi and secondary vectors were collected in the irrigation drainage canals, whereas those of Ae. ochraceous and Aedes sudanensis Theobald were missing from these water bodies. In conclusion, irrigation in RVF endemic areas provides conducive resting and breeding conditions for vectors of RVFV and other endemic arboviruses.

%B Journal Of Medical Entomology %I OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC %V 54 %P 460-470 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000398103900027 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1093/jme/tjw206 %M 0022-2585 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %D 2017 %T Engaging research with policy and action: what are the challenges of responding to zoonotic disease in Africa? %A Bardosh, Kevin Louis %A Scoones, Jake Cornwall %A Grace, Delia %A Kalema-Zikusoka, Gladys %A Jones, Kate E. %A de Balogh, Katinka %A Waltner-Toews, David %A Bett, Bernard %A Welburn, Susan C. %A Mumford, Elizabeth %A Dzingirai, Vupenyu %X Zoonotic diseases will maintain a high level of public policy attention in the coming decades. From the spectre of a global pandemic to anxieties over agricultural change, urbanization, social inequality and threats to natural ecosystems, effectively preparing and responding to endemic and emerging diseases will require technological, institutional and social innovation. Much current discussion emphasizes the need for a ‘One Health’ approach: bridging disciplines and sectors to tackle these complex dynamics. However, as attention has increased, so too has an appreciation of the practical challenges in linking multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral research with policy, action and impact. In this commentary paper, we reflect on these issues with particular reference to the African sub-continent. We structure the themes of our analysis on the existing literature, expert opinion and 11 interviews with leading One Health scholars and practitioners, conducted at an international symposium in 2016. We highlight a variety of challenges in research and knowledge production, in the difficult terrain of implementation and outreach, and in the politicized nature of decision-making and priority setting. We then turn our attention to a number of strategies that might help reconfigure current pathways and accepted norms of practice. These include: (i) challenging scientific expertise; (ii) strengthening national multi-sectoral coordination; (iii) building on what works; and (iv) re-framing policy narratives. We argue that bridging the research-policy-action interface in Africa, and better connecting zoonoses, ecosystems and well-being in the twenty-first century, will ultimately require greater attention to the democratization of science and public policy. %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %I ROYAL SOC %V 372 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000402751700011 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2016.0172 %M 0962-8436 %0 Report %D 2017 %T Ensuring participatory and pro-poor Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes: Insights from ESPA Research %A Mahesh Poudyal %X

Natural resources are vital for life but worldwide forests, watersheds, protected areas and mountain ecosystems are being degraded or threatened at an alarming rate. In Nepal, land degradation is a major issue and challenge. Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) is a pragmatic and innovative approach to managing ecosystems which recognises the key role of those who live, work or manage the land and watersheds as the custodians of ecosystems. PES sees those living or working on the land or watersheds offered incentives, usually financial, to safeguard environmental services with the aim of preventing, halting or reversing environmental degradation.

This briefing considers insights into Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) gained from research projects in Africa, Asia and Latin America supported by the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme. It offers lessons into how PES projects in Nepal can best be put into practice to improve Nepal’s environment sector and reduce poverty among Nepalese people.

%G eng %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2017 %T Environmental justice research shows the importance of social feedbacks in ecosystem service trade-offs %A Dawson, Neil %A Grogan, Kenneth %A Martin, Adrian %A Mertz, Ole %A Pasgaard, Maya %A Vang Rasmussen, Laura %X

In this article, we shine a spotlight on approaches to research ecosystem service trade-offs and critically assess their representation of relevant social dynamics. Although studies linking ecosystem services and human well-being have provided theoretical insights into social and ecological trade-offs, we argue that ecosystem services research has paid insufficient attention to “social feedbacks,” people’s cognitive and behavioral responses to change. We demonstrate that augmenting ecosystem services research with environmental justice approaches (exploring perceptions of the distribution of costs and benefits, decision making procedures, and recognition of different values and identities) can more effectively capture important responses to ecosystem governance. Spatial analysis of land use change, mixed-method assessment of multidimensional well-being, and qualitative environmental justice research were applied in three villages adjacent to Nam Et-Phou Louey National Protected Area in northern Laos. Spatial analysis showed that, from 2006 to 2015, forest clearance for cultivation remained stable within the protected area. Well-being assessment revealed the local population benefited from rapidly increasing incomes, asset ownership, and reduced poverty during that time. In combination, spatial and well-being analyses paint a picture of limited trade-offs, despite growing incentives to exploit protected land and resources through cash crops and high-value forest products. In contrast, results from environmental justice research revealed profound trade-offs between conservation and local practices, and highlight governance deficiencies relating to procedure and recognition. Consequently, formal protected area rules were perceived to be illegitimate by many and actively undermined, for example through negotiated access with alternative authorities. We conclude that although well-being research provides an essential foundation to understand diverse attachments to natural resources, the addition of environmental justice research can reveal local perceptions and social feedbacks critical to ecosystem service trade-offs, and highlight pathways to reconcile them through satisfying stakeholders’ diverse, dynamic objectives.

%B Ecology and Society %V 22 %G eng %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %4 Lao PDR %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.5751/ES-09481-220312 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosphere %D 2017 %T Environmental variability indicates a climate-adaptive center under threat in northern Mozambique coral reefs %A McClanahan, Timothy R. %A Muthiga, Nyawira A. %X A priority for modern conservation is finding and managing regions with environmental and biodiversity portfolio characteristics that will promote adaptation and the persistence of species during times of rapid climate change. The latitudinal edges of high-diversity biomes are likely to provide a mixture of environmental gradients and biological diversity that meet the portfolio criteria needed for adaptive systems. Northern Mozambique and the Quirimbas Islands represent the edge of a coral reef diversity center with limited potential to expand because of geologic and oceanographic limits on the southern edges. This region does, however, have the potential to be its own discrete adaptive center if it contains climate refugia and there are environmental gradients that promote acclimatization, ecological reorganization, and natural selection. Consequently, to evaluate this potential we tested for strong regional environmental spatial heterogeneity that might indicate a climate-adaptive center. Additionally, we evaluated human influences and environmental and demographic data on finfish, coral, and sea urchins in 66 reefs across ~4° of latitude to evaluate ecological changes and human threats. A number of clear gradients in environmental and human influences were observed. For example, temperature increased and became more centralized and right-skewed, while water quality decreased to the south. Coral communities susceptible to thermal stress were found in the north where dispersed temperatures indicated a location with either tolerance to or refugium from recent thermal disturbances. Nevertheless, high coral diversity was found in southern deep-water channels. Further, spatial patterns for corals and fish differed indicating complex geographic-fishing-biodiversity gradients. Consequently, environmental conditions for an adaptive portfolio exist and include refugia for preserving climate-sensitive and for numbers of coral taxa. Fishing and urban threats were observable as reduced fish biomass, diversity, and body sizes but higher biomass of sea urchins. We observed that many remote and protected areas had fish biomass values lower than expected or near maximum sustainable yields. This indicates low compliance and widespread migratory fishing, which is reducing fish diversity below maximum levels. Recommendations to sustain this adaptive center are to maintain fish biomass >500 kg/ha by increasing fisheries restrictions and compliance. %B Ecosphere %V 8 %G eng %1 ne/k010484/1 %2 ne-k010484-1 %3 1 %4 Kenya; Mozambique %# 000402472300024 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/ecs2.1812 %0 Journal Article %J Infectious Diseases Of Poverty %D 2017 %T Estimating the economic and social consequences for patients diagnosed with human African trypanosomiasis in Muchinga, Lusaka and Eastern Provinces of Zambia (2004-2014) %A Mwiinde, Allan Mayaba %A Simuunza, Martin %A Namangala, Boniface %A Chama-Chiliba, Chitalu Miriam %A Machila, Noreen %A Anderson, Neil %A Shaw, Alexandra %A Welburn, Susan C. %X Background Acute human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) caused by Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense is associated with high mortality and is fatal if left untreated. Only a few studies have examined the psychological, social and economic impacts of rHAT. In this study, mixed qualitative and quantitative research methods were used to evaluate the socio-economic impacts of rHAT in Mambwe, Rufunsa, Mpika and Chama Districts of Zambia. Methods Individuals diagnosed with rHAT from 2004 to 2014 were traced using hospital records and discussions with communities. Either they, or their families, were interviewed using a structured questionnaire and focus group discussions were conducted with affected communities. The burden of the disease was investigated using disability adjusted life years (DALYs), with and without discounting and age-weighting. The impact of long-term disabilities on the rHAT burden was also investigated. Results Sixty four cases were identified in the study. The majority were identified in second stage, and the mortality rate was high (12.5%). The total number of DALYs was 285 without discounting or age-weighting. When long-term disabilities were included this estimate increased by 50% to 462. The proportion of years lived with disability (YLD) increased from 6.4% to 37% of the undiscounted and un-age-weighted DALY total. When a more active surveillance method was applied in 2013–2014 the cases identified increased dramatically, suggesting a high level of under-reporting. Similarly, the proportion of females increased substantially, indicating that passive surveillance may be especially failing this group. An average of 4.9 months of productive time was lost per patient as a consequence of infection. The health consequences included pain, amnesia and physical disability. The social consequences included stigma, dropping out of education, loss of friends and self-esteem. Results obtained from focus group discussions revealed misconceptions among community members which could be attributed to lack of knowledge about rHAT. Conclusions The social and economic impact of rHAT on rural households and communities is substantial. Improved surveillance and strengthening of local medical services are needed for early and accurate diagnosis. Disease prevention should be prioritised in communities at risk of rHAT, and interventions put in place to prevent zoonotic disease spill over from domestic animals and wildlife. Supportive measures to mitigate the long-term effects of disability due to rHAT are needed. %B Infectious Diseases Of Poverty %I BIOMED CENTRAL LTD %V 6 %G eng %N 11 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000412697600001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1186/s40249-017-0363-6 %M 2095-5162 %0 Journal Article %J PLoS ONE %D 2017 %T Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data %A Redding, David W. %A Lucas, Tim C. D. %A Blackburn, Tim M. %A Jones, Kate E. %X Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species’ ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1–3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10–12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial autocorrelation in an SDM context and, by taking account of random effects, produce outputs that can better elucidate the role of covariates in predicting species occurrence. Given that it is often unclear what the drivers are behind data clumping in an empirical occurrence dataset, or indeed how geographically restricted these data are, spatially-explicit Bayesian SDMs may be the better choice when modelling the spatial distribution of target species. %B PLoS ONE %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000416841900017 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0187602 %0 Journal Article %J Global Change Biology %D 2017 %T Evaluating, predicting and mapping belowground carbon stores in Kenyan mangroves %A Gress, Selena K. %A Huxham, Mark %A Kairo, James G. %A Mugi, Lilian M. %A Briers, Robert A. %X

Despite covering only approximately 138 000 km(2), mangroves are globally important carbon sinks with carbon density values three to four times that of terrestrial forests. A key challenge in evaluating the carbon benefits from mangrove forest conservation is the lack of rigorous spatially resolved estimates of mangrove sediment carbon stocks; most mangrove carbon is stored belowground. Previous work has focused on detailed estimations of carbon stores over relatively small areas, which has obvious limitations in terms of generality and scope of application. Most studies have focused only on quantifying the top 1 m of belowground carbon (BGC). Carbon stored at depths beyond 1 m, and the effects of mangrove species, location and environmental context on these stores, are poorly studied. This study investigated these variables at two sites (Gazi and Vanga in the south of Kenya) and used the data to produce a country-specific BGC predictive model for Kenya and map BGC store estimates throughout Kenya at spatial scales relevant for climate change research, forest management and REDD+ (reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation). The results revealed that mangrove species was the most reliable predictor of BGC; Rhizophora muronata had the highest mean BGC with 1485.5 t C ha(-1). Applying the species-based predictive model to a base map of species distribution in Kenya for the year 2010 with a 2.5 m(2) resolution produced an estimate of 69.41 Mt C [+/- 9.15 95% confidence interval (C.I.)] for BGC in Kenyan mangroves. When applied to a 1992 mangrove distribution map, the BGC estimate was 75.65 Mt C (+/- 12.21 95% C.I.), an 8.3% loss in BGC stores between 1992 and 2010 in Kenya. The country-level mangrove map provides a valuable tool for assessing carbon stocks and visualizing the distribution of BGC. Estimates at the 2.5 m(2) resolution provide sufficient details for highlighting and prioritizing areas for mangrove conservation and restoration.

%B Global Change Biology %I WILEY-BLACKWELL %V 23 %P 224-234 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/i003401/1 %2 ne-i003401-1 %4 Kenya %# 000390218300019 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/gcb.13438 %M 1354-1013 %0 Journal Article %J PLOS ONE %D 2017 %T Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation and development investments in reducing deforestation and fires in Ankeniheny-Zahemena Corridor, Madagascar %A Karyn Tabor %A Kelly W. Jones %A Jennifer Hewson %A Andriambolantsoa Rasolohery %A Andoniaina Rambeloson %A Tokihenintsoa Andrianjohaninarivo %A Celia A. Harvey %X

Forest conservation and REDD+ projects invest millions of dollars each year to reduce local communities’ dependence on forests and prevent forest loss and degradation. However, to date, there is limited evidence on whether these investments are effective at delivering conservation outcomes. We explored the relationships between 600+ small-scale conservation and development investments that occurred from 2007 to 2014 and conservation outcomes (deforestation rates and fire detections) within Ankeniheny-Zahamena Corridor in Madagascar using linear fixed effects panel regressions. We derived annual changes in forest cover and fires from satellite remote sensing. We found a statistically significant correlation between presence of any investment and reduced deforestation rates in 2010 and 2011 – years with accelerated deforestation elsewhere in the study area. This result indicated investments abated deforestation rates during times of political instability and lack of governance following a 2009 coup in Madagascar. We also found a statistically significant relationship between presence of any investment and reduced fire detections in the study area, suggesting investments had an impact on reducing burning of forest for agriculture. For both outcomes (i.e., deforestation rates and fire detections), we found that more dollars invested led to greater conservation outcomes (i.e. fewer fires or less deforestation), particularly when funding was sustained for one to two years. Our findings suggest that conservation and development investments can reduce deforestation and fire incidence, but also highlight the many challenges and complexities in assessing relationships between investments and conservation outcomes in a dynamic landscape and a volatile political context.

%B PLOS ONE %V 12 %G eng %N 12 %1 NE/K010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0190119 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %D 2017 %T Facility-based surveillance for emerging infectious diseases; diagnostic practices in rural West African hospital settings: observations from Ghana %A Jephcott, Freya L. %A Wood, James L.N. %A Cunningham, Andrew A. %X The aim of this study was to better understand the effectiveness of Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) facility-based surveillance in detecting newly emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in rural West African settings. A six-month ethnographic study was undertaken in 2012 in the Techiman Municipality of the Brong-Ahafo Region of Ghana, aimed at documenting the trajectories of febrile illness cases of unknown origin occurring within four rural communities. Particular attention was paid to where these trajectories involved the use of formal healthcare facilities and the diagnostic practices that occurred there. Seventy-six participants were enrolled in the study, and 24 complete episodes of illness were documented. While participants routinely used hospital treatment when confronted with enduring or severe illness, the diagnostic process within clinical settings meant that an unusual diagnosis, such as an EID, was unlikely to be considered. Facility-based surveillance is unlikely to be effective in detecting EIDs due to a combination of clinical care practices and the time constraints associated with individual episodes of illness, particularly in the resource-limited settings of rural West Africa, where febrile illness due to malaria is common and specific diagnostic assays are largely unavailable. The success of the ‘One Health' approach to EIDs in West Africa is predicated on characterization of accurately diagnosed disease burdens. To this end, we must address inefficiencies in the dominant approaches to EID surveillance and the weaknesses of health systems in the region generally. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'. %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %V 372 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 2 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000402751700012 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2016.0544 %M 0962-8436 %0 Journal Article %J Earth's Future %D 2017 %T Far-field connectivity of the UK's four largest marine protected areas: four of a kind? %A Robinson, Josie %A New, Adrian %A Popova, Ekaterina %A Srokosz, Meric %A Yool, Andrew %X Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are established to conserve important ecosystems and protect marine species threatened in the wider ocean. However, even MPAs in remote areas are not wholly isolated from anthropogenic impacts. “Upstream” activities, possibly thousands of kilometers away, can influence MPAs through ocean currents that determine their connectivity. Persistent pollutants, such as plastics, can be transported from neighboring shelf regions to MPAs, or an ecosystem may be affected if larval dispersal is reduced from a seemingly remote upstream area. Thus, improved understanding of exactly where upstream is, and on what timescale it is connected, is important for protecting and monitoring MPAs. Here, we use a high-resolution (1/12°) ocean general circulation model and Lagrangian particle tracking to diagnose the connectivity of four of the UK's largest MPAs: Pitcairn; South Georgia and Sandwich Islands; Ascension; and the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). We introduce the idea of a circulation “connectivity footprint”, by which MPAs are connected to upstream areas. Annual connectivity footprints were calculated for the four MPAs, taking into account seasonal and inter-annual variability. These footprints showed that, on annual timescales, Pitcairn was not connected with land, whereas there was increasing connectivity for waters reaching South Georgia, Ascension, and, especially, BIOT. BIOT also had a high degree of both seasonal and inter-annual variability, which drastically changed its footprint, year-to-year. We advocate that such connectivity footprints are an inherent property of all MPAs, and need to be considered when MPAs are first proposed or their viability as refuges evaluated. %B Earth's Future %G eng %1 ne/m007545/1 %2 ne-m007545-1 %4 Madagascar %# 000403546800005 %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/2016EF000516 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosphere %D 2017 %T From patches to richness: assessing the potential impact of landscape transformation on biodiversity %A Arnillas, Carlos Alberto %A Tovar, Carolina %A Cadotte, Marc W. %A Buytaert, Wouter %X Natural patchiness and human fragmentation result in habitats that are not continuously distributed. How spatial configuration of patches in fragmented habitats influences biodiversity remains largely controversial. Here, we propose a framework to extend the species–area relationship (SAR) approach to analyze how changes in habitat configuration affect species richness in fragmented habitats. We use hypothetical communities that are characterized by (1) their tolerance to human activities, (2) the dispersal capability of the individuals of any species, (3) the SAR, and (4) the species turnover among patches. Further, the species turnover is a function of (4a) the predictability of species survival and (4b) the species recolonization odds. In our framework, we identify three extreme communities that encompass the richness of all potential different communities, and thus encapsulate the richness of real communities. We propose a graph to visualize the effect of different patch sizes on species richness, an index to quantify those changes, and a second graph using the index to visualize the effect of distance between patches on species richness. After applying our framework and tools to the Tropical Andes, we found strong differences in the impact of natural vs. human-driven fragmentation on richness between biomes. When projecting future richness values under climate change scenarios, the largest sources of uncertainty in our richness calculation (>90%) were species turnover among patches and species dispersal for most of the biomes rather than future climate or species tolerance to human activities. Habitat loss consistently decreased the species richness; however, fragmentation per se often increased it. The increment was mostly linked to the species turnover rate among patches. Our framework is a new theoretical tool to study the main patterns that underlie regional richness and therefore can provide new insights to face spatial habitat reconfiguration caused by human activities. %B Ecosphere %I WILEY %V 8 %G eng %N 11 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000417330000016 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/ecs2.2004 %M 2150-8925 %0 Journal Article %J Society & Natural Resources %D 2017 %T From shiny shoes to muddy reality: understanding how meso-state actors negotiate the implementation gap in Participatory Forest Management %A A. Kairu %A C. Upton %A M. Huxham %A K. Kotut %A R. Mbeche %A J. Kairu %X

Recent research on participatory forest management (PFM) in the global south has highlighted the existence of a widespread “implementation gap” between the ambitious intent enshrined in legislation and the often partial, disappointing rollout of devolved forest governance on the ground. Here, through an ethnographic case study of forest officers (FOs) in Kenya, we draw on a framework of critical institutionalism to examine how key meso-level actors, or “interface bureaucrats,” negotiate and challenge this implementation gap in everyday forest governance. We go beyond consideration of institutional bricolage in isolation or as an aggregate category, to analyze how bricolage as aggregation, alteration, and/or articulation is variously driven, shaped, and constrained by FOs’ multiple accountabilities and agency. Our analysis highlights the locally specific, contingent, and mutually reinforcing nature of accountability, agency and bricolage, and their explanatory power in relation to the performance and nature of “actually existing” PFM.

%B Society & Natural Resources %P 1-15 %G eng %K http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08941920.2017.1382628 %1 NE/L001535/1 %2 ne-l001535-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1080/08941920.2017.1382628 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2017 %T Glacial melt content of water use in the tropical Andes %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Moulds, Simon %A Acosta, Luis %A De Bièvre, Bert %A Olmos, Carlos %A Villacis, Marcos %A Tovar, Carolina %A Verbist, Koen M. J. %X Accelerated melting of glaciers is expected to have a negative effect on the water resources of mountain regions and their adjacent lowlands, with tropical mountain regions being among the most vulnerable. In order to quantify those impacts, it is necessary to understand the changing dynamics of glacial melting, but also to map how glacial meltwater contributes to current and future water use, which often occurs at considerable distance downstream of the terminus of the glacier. While the dynamics of tropical glacial melt are increasingly well understood and documented, major uncertainty remains on how the contribution of tropical glacial meltwater propagates through the hydrological system, and hence how it contributes to various types of human water use in downstream regions. Therefore, in this paper we present a detailed regional mapping of current water demand in regions downstream of the major tropical glaciers. We combine these maps with a regional water balance model to determine the dominant spatiotemporal patterns of the contribution of glacial meltwater to human water use at an unprecedented scale and resolution. We find that the number of users relying continuously on water resources with a high (>25%) long-term average contribution from glacial melt is low (391 000 domestic users, 398?km2 of irrigated land, and 11?MW of hydropower production), but this reliance increases sharply during drought conditions (up to 3.92 million domestic users, 2096 km2 of irrigated land, and 732?MW of hydropower production in the driest month of a drought year). A large proportion of domestic and agricultural users are located in rural regions where climate adaptation capacity tends to be low. Therefore, we suggest that adaptation strategies should focus on increasing the natural and artificial water storage and regulation capacity to bridge dry periods. %B Environmental Research Letters %I IOP PUBLISHING LTD %V 12 %G eng %N 11 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000424392900005 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1088/1748-9326/aa926c %M 1748-9326 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %D 2017 %T Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation %A Scoones, Ian %A Jones, Kate %A Lo Iacono, Gianni %A Redding, David W. %A Wilkinson, Annie %A Wood, James L. N. %X This paper argues for an integrative modelling approach for understanding zoonoses disease dynamics, combining process, pattern and participatory models. Each type of modelling provides important insights, but all are limited. Combining these in a ‘3P’ approach offers the opportunity for a productive conversation between modelling efforts, contributing to a ‘One Health’ agenda. The aim is not to come up with a composite model, but seek synergies between perspectives, encouraging cross-disciplinary interactions. We illustrate our argument with cases from Africa, and in particular from our work on Ebola virus and Lassa fever virus. Combining process-based compartmental models with macroecological data offers a spatial perspective on potential disease impacts. However, without insights from the ground, the ‘black box’ of transmission dynamics, so crucial to model assumptions, may not be fully understood. We show how participatory modelling and ethnographic research of Ebola and Lassa fever can reveal social roles, unsafe practices, mobility and movement and temporal changes in livelihoods. Together with longer-term dynamics of change in societies and ecologies, all can be important in explaining disease transmission, and provide important complementary insights to other modelling efforts. An integrative modelling approach therefore can offer help to improve disease control efforts and public health responses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %I ROYAL SOC %V 372 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000402751700003 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2016.0164 %M 0962-8436 %0 Report %D 2017 %T Inter-disciplinary modeling for pro-poor policy-making %A R.J. Nicholls %A C.W. Hutton %X

The ESPA Deltas project (www.espadeltas.net) undertook an ambitious, interdisciplinary study to understand the ecosystems of coastal Bangladesh and the lives of the millions of people who benefit from them. A key aim was to make the findings available to decision-makers who are seeking to protect and improve the livelihoods and wellbeing of the people who live in this dynamic delta environment. The project’s many findings have been integrated into a sophisticated model, the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM). The ESPA Deltas team is now working with the Planning Commission of the Government of Bangladesh to use the ΔDIEM to assess the diverse impacts of development options being considered as part of the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100. These options include a strengthened sea wall and a new mangrove ‘buffer’ zone. Such simulations can identify trade-offs, and so benefit decision-making processes. The Deltas project approach could be adapted for informing pro-poor policies elsewhere in Bangladesh and, indeed, in other delta regions in the world.

 

 

%G eng %1 NE/J002755-1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %0 Book Section %D 2017 %T Invisible journeys across India-Bangladesh borders and bubbles of corrupt networks: stories of cross-border rural-urban migration and economic linkages %A Shewly, Hosna %A Nadiruzzaman, Md. %X Drawing on ethnography and retrospective memories of peoples’ journey across the India-Bangladesh border, this chapter seeks to understand corrupt spaces and flows – process of their migration decision, networks, destinations, challenges, expectations and survival strategies in everyday life. The focus on journeying and methods of illegal and provisional migration from one country’s coastal zone to other country’s megacities can represent corrupt spaces from three perspectives - organised network of illegal migration, corrupt organizations at different scales and locations, and different bubbles of economies embedded in it. In doing so, this research shows the ‘circuits’ of corrupt spaces and economic activities through shortterm and circulatory migration. %I Routledge %C London %G eng %1 fell-2014-106 %2 fell-2014-106 %4 Bangladesh %6 ESPA Fellowships %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Book Section %B Corrupt Places: The Illicit in the Governance and Development of Cities, Regions and Networks %D 2017 %T Invisible journeys across India-Bangladesh borders and bubbles of corrupt networks: stories of cross-border rural-urban migration and economic linkages %A Hosna Shewly %A Md. Nadiruzzaman %X

Drawing on ethnography and retrospective memories of peoples’ journey across the India-Bangladesh border, this chapter seeks to understand corrupt spaces and flows – process of their migration decision, networks, destinations, challenges, expectations and survival strategies in everyday life. The focus on journeying and methods of illegal and provisional migration from one country’s coastal zone to other country’s megacities can represent corrupt spaces from three perspectives - organised network of illegal migration, corrupt organizations at different scales and locations, and different bubbles of economies embedded in it. In doing so, this research shows the ‘circuits’ of corrupt spaces and economic activities through short-term and circulatory migration.

%B Corrupt Places: The Illicit in the Governance and Development of Cities, Regions and Networks %I Routledge %C London %P 34-53 %G eng %1 FELL-2014-106 %2 fell-2014-106 %+ Yes %& 3 %0 Journal Article %J Tropical Medicine And Infectious Disease %D 2017 %T Lagos bat virus infection dynamics in free-ranging straw-colored fruit bats (eidolon helvum) %A Suu-Ire, Richard D. %A Fooks, Anthony R. %A Banyard, Ashley C. %A Selden, David %A Amponsah-Mensah, Kofi %A Riesle, Silke %A Ziekah, Meyir Y. %A Ntiamoa-Baidu, Yaa %A Wood, James L.N. %A Cunningham, Andrew A. %X Bats are key species for ecological function, but they are also reservoirs of zoonotic agents, such as lyssaviruses that cause rabies. Little is known about the maintenance and transmission of lyssaviruses in bats, although the observation of clinically sick bats, both in experimental studies and wild bats, has at least demonstrated that lyssaviruses are capable of causing clinical disease in bat species. Despite this, extensive surveillance for diseased bats has not yielded lyssaviruses, whilst serological surveys demonstrate that bats must be exposed to lyssavirus without developing clinical disease. We hypothesize that there is endemic circulation of Lagos bat virus (LBV) in the straw-coloured fruit bat (Eidolon helvum) in Ghana, West Africa. To investigate this further, longitudinal blood sampling was undertaken quarterly between 2012 and 2014 on wild E. helvum at two sites in Ghana. Serum samples were collected and tested for LBV-neutralizing antibodies using a modified flourescent antibody virus neutralisation (FAVN) assay (n = 294) and brains from moribund or dead bats were tested for antigen and viral RNA (n = 55). Overall, 44.7% of the 304 bats sampled had LBV-neutralising antibodies. None of the brain samples from bats contained lyssavirus antigen or RNA. Together with the results of an earlier serological study, our findings demonstrate that LBV is endemic and circulates within E. helvum in Ghana even though the detection of viral infection in dead bats was unsuccessful. Confirmation that LBV infection is endemic in E. helvum in Ghana is an important finding and indicates that the potential public health threats from LBV warrant further investigation. %B Tropical Medicine And Infectious Disease %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3390/tropicalmed2030025 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2017 %T Learning about social-ecological trade-offs %A Galafassi, Diego %A Daw, Tim M %A Munyi, Lydiah %A Brown, Katrina %A Barnaud, Cecile %A Fazey, Ioan %X

Trade-offs are manifestations of the complex dynamics in interdependent social-ecological systems. Addressing tradeoffs involves challenges of perception due to the dynamics of interdependence. We outline the challenges associated with addressing trade-offs and analyze knowledge coproduction as a practice that may contribute to tackling trade-offs in social-ecological systems. We discuss this through a case study in coastal Kenya in which an iterative knowledge coproduction process was facilitated to reveal social-ecological trade-offs in the face of ecological and socioeconomic change. Representatives of communities, government, and NGOs attended two integrative workshops in which methods derived from systems thinking, dialogue, participatory modeling, and scenarios were applied to encourage participants to engage and evaluate trade-offs. Based on process observation and interviews with participants and scientists, our analysis suggests that this process lead to increased appreciation of interdependences and the way in which trade-offs emerge from complex dynamics of interdependent factors. The process seemed to provoke a reflection of knowledge assumptions and narratives, and management goals for the social-ecological system. We also discuss how stakeholders link these insights to their practices.

%B Ecology and Society %V 22 %G eng %1 ne/i00324x/1 %2 ne-i00324x-1 %4 Kenya %# 000399397700013 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.5751/ES-08920-220102 %0 Journal Article %J Marine Policy %D 2017 %T Linking small-scale fisheries to international obligations on marine technology transfer %A Morgera, Elisa %A Ntona, Mara %X This article analyses the interplay between inter-State obligations to increase scientific knowledge, develop research capacity and transfer marine technology in accordance with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14.a, with a view to contributing to enhanced implementation of the international law of the sea (SDG 14.c), and providing access for small-scale artisanal fishers to marine resources (SDG 14.b). It proposes to do so by relying not only on the international law of the sea, but also on international biodiversity law (particularly the Convention on Biological Diversity) and international human rights law (particularly the human right to science). The article seeks to provide a reflection on the opportunities arising from a mutually supportive interpretation of different international law instruments with regard to the means of implementation for SDG 14 in synergy with other SDGs (particularly SDG 17 on ‘Partnerships for the Goals’ and its targets related to technology transfer, capacity-building and partnerships. %B Marine Policy %G eng %1 ne/m007650/1 %2 ne-m007650-1 %4 Global %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.marpol.2017.07.021 %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Environmental And Public Health %D 2017 %T Living with bats: the case of Ve Golokuati Township in the Volta region of Ghana. %A Ayivor, Jesse S. %A Ohemeng, Fidelia %A Tweneboah Lawson, Elaine %A Waldman, Linda %A Leach, Melissa %A Ntiamoa-Baidu, Yaa %X Transmission of zoonotic pathogens from bats to humans through direct and indirect contact with bats raises public apprehension about living close to bats. In the township of Ve Golokuati in Ghana, several “camps” of Epomophorus gambianus roost in fruit trees that provide ecosystems services for residents. This study explored human-bat interaction in the township and the potential risks of disease transmission from bats to humans. Data were derived through questionnaire administration and participatory appraisal approach involving focus group discussions, participatory landscape mapping, and transect walk. The study found that most human activities within the township, such as petty-trading, domestic chores, and children’s outdoor recreation, exposed people to bats. Though there have been no reported cases of disease spillover from bats to humans from the perspective of residents and from medical records, respondents whose activities brought them closer to bats within the township were found to be more likely to experience fevers than those who do not interact with bats frequently. The study recommends education of community members about the potential risks involved in human-bat interactions and makes suggestions for reducing the frequent interactions with and exposure to bats by humans. %B Journal Of Environmental And Public Health %V 2017 %P 5938934 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000410302300001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1155/2017/5938934 %M 1687-9805 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %D 2017 %T Local disease - ecosystem - livelihood dynamics: reflections from comparative case studies in Africa %A Leach, Melissa %A Bett, Bernard %A Said, M. %A Bukachi, Salome %A Sang, Rosemary %A Anderson, Neil %A Machila, Noreen %A Kuleszo, Joanna %A Schaten, Kathryn %A Dzingirai, Vupenyu %A Mangwanya, Lindiwe %A Ntiamoa-Baidu, Yaa %A Lawson, Elaine %A Amponsah-Mensah, Kofi %A Moses, Lina M. %A Wilkinson, Annie %A Grant, Donald S. %A Koninga, James %X This article explores the implications for human health of local interactions between disease, ecosystems and livelihoods. Five interdisciplinary case studies addressed zoonotic diseases in African settings: Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Kenya, human African trypanosomiasis in Zambia and Zimbabwe, Lassa fever in Sierra Leone and henipaviruses in Ghana. Each explored how ecological changes and human–ecosystem interactions affect pathogen dynamics and hence the likelihood of zoonotic spillover and transmission, and how socially differentiated peoples’ interactions with ecosystems and animals affect their exposure to disease. Cross-case analysis highlights how these dynamics vary by ecosystem type, across a range from humid forest to semi-arid savannah; the significance of interacting temporal and spatial scales; and the importance of mosaic and patch dynamics. Ecosystem interactions and services central to different people's livelihoods and well-being include pastoralism and agro-pastoralism, commercial and subsistence crop farming, hunting, collecting food, fuelwood and medicines, and cultural practices. There are synergies, but also tensions and trade-offs, between ecosystem changes that benefit livelihoods and affect disease. Understanding these can inform ‘One Health’ approaches towards managing ecosystems in ways that reduce disease risks and burdens. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %I ROYAL SOC %V 372 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 4 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000402751700002 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2016.0163 %M 0962-8436 %0 Journal Article %J Marine Policy %D 2017 %T Mainstreaming marine biodiversity into the SDGs: the role of other effective area-based conservation measures (SDG 14.5) %A Diz, Daniela %A Johnson, David %A Riddell, Michael %A Rees, Sian %A Battle, Jessica %A Gjerde, Kristina %A Hennige, Sebastian %A Roberts, J. Murray %X This article explores the concept of “other effective area-based conservation measures” (OECMs) in the context of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 on marine protected areas and OECMs and its linkages to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It argues that mainstreaming biodiversity through CBD Aichi Biodiversity Targets’ implementation into the SDGs can contribute to a more systemic and comprehensive implementation of SDG 14.5 on conservation of at least 10% of marine and coastal areas. It argues that OECMs can complement MPAs and contribute to ecologically representative and effectively managed marine protected areas systems integrated into broader governance systems such as marine spatial planning. Selected global and local sectoral conservation measures are therefore highlighted in this analysis as potential forms of OECMs. At the local level, a case study of ecologically or biologically significant marine areas managed as locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) in Mozambique is discussed. This case study explores how multiple-use LMMAs, which respond to short-term fisher's needs and targeted biodiversity conservation, could contribute to the achievement of specific SDGs on food security, poverty elimination and resilient ecosystems if properly supported by long-term investments, strong institutions and integrated oceans management. %B Marine Policy %G eng %1 ne/m007650/1 %2 ne-m007650-1 %4 Global %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.marpol.2017.08.019 %0 Journal Article %J Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution %D 2017 %T Management and motivations to manage “wild” food plants. A case study in a mestizo village in the Amazon deforestation frontier %A Gisella S. Cruz-Garcia %X

Human management of anthropogenic environments and species is tightly linked to the ecology and evolution of plants gathered by humans. This is certainly the case for wild food plants, which exist on a continuum of human management. Given alarming deforestation rates, wild food plant gathering is increasingly occurring in anthropogenic ecosystems, where farmers actively manage these species in order to ensure their availability and access. This study was conducted in a mestizo village in the Peruvian Amazon deforestation frontier, with the objective of documenting the management practices, including the human-induced movement of wild food plant species across the forest-agriculture landscape, and the motivations that farmers have to manage them using a qualitative ethnobotanical approach. The results of focus group discussions showed that 67% of the 30 “wild” food plant species reported for the village were managed, and almost all plants that were managed have been transplanted. The strongest flow of transplanted material was from forest to agricultural field (11 species), followed by market to field (five species), and field to home garden (four species). Farmers argued that the main reason for transplanting “wild” food plants was to have them closer to home, because they perceived that the abundance of 77% of these species decreased in the last years. Conversely, the most important reason for not transplanting a “wild” plant was the long time it takes to grow, stated for 67% of the species that have not been transplanted. Remarkably, more than half (57%) of the “wild” food plant species, including 76% of the species that are managed, have been classified as weeds by scientific literature. Finally, the “wild” food plant species were classified in six mutually exclusive groups according to management form and perceived abundance. The study concluded that “wild” food plant management, including management of species classified as weeds by scientific literature, is a crucial adaptation strategy of farmers aimed at ensuring their food security in scenarios of increasing deforestation. Finally, the article reflects on the major implications of human management on the ecology and evolution of food plant species.

%B Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution %V 5 %G eng %K https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2017.00127/full %N 127 %1 NE/J002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %+ Yes %R 10.3389/fevo.2017.00127 %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Hydrology %D 2017 %T Measurement and modeling of rainfall interception by two differently aged secondary forests in upland Eastern Madagascar %A Prasad Ghimire, Chandra %A Bruijnzeel, L. Adrian %A Lubczynski, Maclek W. %A Ravelona, Maafaka %A Zwartendijk, Bob W. %A van Meerveld, H.J. %X

Secondary forests occupy a larger area than old-growth rain forests in many tropical regions but their hydrological functioning is still poorly understood. In particular, little is known about the various components of evapotranspiration in these possibly vigorously regenerating forests. This paper reports on a comparison of measured and modeled canopy interception losses (I) from a semi-mature (ca. 20 years) and a young (5–7 years) secondary forest in the lower montane rain forest zone of eastern Madagascar. Measurements of gross rainfall (P), throughfall (Tf), and stemflow (Sf) were made in both forests for one year (October 2014–September 2015) and the revised analytical model of Gash et al. (1995) was tested for the first time in a tropical secondary forest setting. Overall measured Tf, Sf and derived I in the semi-mature forest were 71.0%, 1.7% and 27.3% of incident P, respectively. Corresponding values for the young forest were 75.8%, 6.2% and 18.0%. The high Sf for the young forest reflects the strongly upward thrusting habit of the branches of the dominant species (Psiadia altissima), which favours funneling of P. The value of I for the semi-mature forest is similar to values reported for old-growth tropical lower montane rain forests elsewhere but I for the younger forest is higher than reported for similarly aged tropical lowland forests. These findings can be explained largely by the prevailing low rainfall intensities and the frequent occurrence of small rainfall events. The revised analytical model was able to reproduce measured cumulative I at the two sites accurately and succeeded in capturing the variability in I associated with the seasonal variability in rainfall intensity, provided that Tf-based values for the average wet-canopy evaporation rates were used instead of values derived with the Penman-Monteith equation.

%B Journal Of Hydrology %V 545 %P 212-225 %G eng %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %4 Madagascar %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.032 %0 Journal Article %J Earth's Future %D 2017 %T Modeling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh %A Payo, Andres %A Lázár, Attila N. %A Clarke, Derek %A Nicholls, Robert J. %A Bricheno, Lucy %A Mashfiqus, Salehin %A Haque, Anisul %X Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low-lying delta regions, which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present, there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of coastal Bangladesh (~20,000?km2). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh. %B Earth's Future %I WILEY %V 5 %P 495-514 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000403546800006 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/2016EF000530 %M 2328-4277 %0 Journal Article %J Weather %D 2017 %T Monitoring drought in Ghana using TAMSAT-ALERT: a new decision support system %A Brown, Matt %A Black, Emily %A Asfaw, Dagmawi %A Otu-Larbi, Fred %X Approximately 886 million people in Africa rely on agriculture as their main means of survival. They are therefore susceptible to changes in seasonal rains from year to year that can result in agricultural drought. Agricultural drought is determined by low soil moisture content. Soil moisture responds to rainfall, but also depends on many other factors, including the soil characteristics and, crucially, on the past soil moisture. Here we demonstrate that predictive skill can be gained from knowledge of the current state of the land surface – how wet or dry the soil is – as the growing season evolves. This skill arises from the land surface memory – the soil moisture content at a particular time depends to a large extent on the historical soil moisture. By forcing a land surface model with observed data up to a ‘present day’ and then forward in time with climatological data (to represent the range of possible future conditions) we show that it is possible to be confident of an ensuing agricultural drought several weeks before the end of the growing season. This system is illustrated using results from an operational trial for Tamale in northern Ghana. %B Weather %G eng %1 ne/i00307x/1 %2 ne-i00307x-1 %4 Brazil; Ghana %# 000405134800010 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/wea.3033 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal Of Ecology And Environmental Sciences %D 2017 %T Mountains under pressure: Evaluating ecosystem services and livelihoods in the Upper Himalayan region of Nepal %A Bhusal, Jagat K. %A Chapagain, Prem Sagar %A Regmi, Santosh %A Gurung, Praju %A Zulkafli, Zed %A Karpouzoglou, Timothy %A Pandeya, Bhopal %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Clark, Julian %X

Natural resource-based livelihoods in mountainous regions are subject to new types of development as well as climate related pressures and vulnerabilities. On one hand, the integrity of the mountainous landscape is under pressure from the melting of glaciers, changes in water availability, rainfall patterns, and soil degradation. On the other hand, as mountainous environments become increasingly more important in national growth strategies and development priorities, new avenues for livelihoods and vulnerabilities become more pronounced. Climate change effects are expected to be disproportionately higher in mountainous regions. There is therefore a critical urgency to better comprehend these changes shaping mountainous environments and to better assess future direct and indirect impacts on ecosystem services and livelihoods. This article presents the results of an analysis of ecosystem services and livelihoods in the Upper Mustang region of Nepal. The region was selected for its particular trans-Himalayan location, development diversity, and climatic changes that have placed increasing pressure on local ecosystem services. We examine the central role of ecosystem services for remote mountain regions, particularly for the poor, the existing pressures on the key ecosystem services and local ways of adapting to climate-induced effect to ecosystem services and, cogeneration of the knowledge gaps and co-production of knowledge with communities to support local adaptation strategies. We adopted a combination of qualitative and quantitative analytical approaches. We found significant implications for local livelihoods and adaptation strategies with reference to water for farming, pasture productivity and livestock rearing, as well as tourism development. Additionally, we highlight knowledge gaps in assessing ecosystem services and opportunities for local monitoring that may close in on the gaps with an end goal of overcoming poverty.

%B International Journal Of Ecology And Environmental Sciences %V 42 %P 217-226 %G eng %K https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317036293_Mountains_Under_Pressure_Evaluating_Ecosystem_Services_and_Livelihoods_in_the_Upper_Himalayan_Region_of_Nepal %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %M 2320-5199 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Development %D 2017 %T A new Himalayan crisis? Exploring transformative resilience pathways %A Satyal, Poshendra %A Shrestha, Krishna %A Ojha, Hemant %A Vira, Bhaskar %A Adhikari, Jagannath %X

This paper demonstrates that a new crisis has emerged in the Himalayas in recent years, as five decades of well-intentioned policy responses failed to tackle escalating environment and development challenges. It then suggests some practical pathways for achieving what we term transformative resilience in the region. Our analysis draws on a critical review of literature, combined with individual co-authors' longstanding experience in the region in both research and policy arenas. We highlight how the neo-Malthusian Theory of Himalayan Degradation continues to shape simplistic responses to environment and development problems of a multi-faceted nature, in the vulnerable, complex and politicized contexts of the Himalayas. A key reason for this failure is an obsession with technical reasoning underpinned by the dominance of biophysical analyses of the problems, which have, in most cases, undermined the potential for emancipatory political transformations. The failure is visible in various ways: poverty remains, while environmental vulnerabilities have increased. Foreign aid has often been counter-productive and ‘blue-print’ development planning has been fragmented and dysfunctional. Likewise, livelihood opportunities and social capital have seriously eroded due to unprecedented political crises, out-migration, abandonment of productive mountain lands and unregulated remittance economies. We term this phenomenon a ‘new Himalayan crisis’. In response, we argue for the need to open up a transformative agenda for integrating approaches to environment and development challenges, emphasizing an emancipatory multi-scalar politics that has the potential to open up sustainable pathways in the context of dynamic social and ecological changes in the Himalayas.

%B Environmental Development %G eng %1 ne/l001365/1 %2 ne-l001365-1 %4 India; Nepal %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.envdev.2017.02.010 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2017 %T Off-stage ecosystem service burdens: A blind spot for global sustainability %A Pascual, Unai %A Palomo, Ignacio %A Adams, William M. %A Chan, Kai M. A. %A Daw, Tim M. %A Garmendia, Eneko %A Gomez-Baggethun, Erik %A de Groot, Rudolf S. %A Mace, Georgina M. %A Martin-Lopez, Berta %A Phelps, Jacob %X The connected nature of social-ecological systems has never been more apparent than in today's globalized world. The ecosystem service framework and associated ecosystem assessments aim to better inform the science–policy response to sustainability challenges. Such assessments, however, often overlook distant, diffuse and delayed impacts that are critical for global sustainability. Ecosystem-services science must better recognise the off-stage impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services of place-based ecosystem management, which we term 'ecosystem service burdens'. These are particularly important since they are often negative, and have a potentially significant effect on ecosystem management decisions. Ecosystem-services research can better recognise these off-stage burdens through integration with other analytical approaches, such as life cycle analysis and risk-based approaches that better account for the uncertainties involved. We argue that off-stage ecosystem service burdens should be incorporated in ecosystem assessments such as those led by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Taking better account of these off-stage burdens is essential to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of cross-scale interactions, a pre-requisite for any sustainability transition. %B Environmental Research Letters %V 12 %G eng %1 espa-res-001 %2 espa-res-001 %4 Global %# 000404943800001 %6 Directorate Research %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7392 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %D 2017 %T One Health, emerging infectious diseases and wildlife: two decades of progress? %A Cunningham, Andrew A. %A Daszak, Peter %A Wood, James L.N. %X Infectious diseases affect people, domestic animals and wildlife alike, with many pathogens being able to infect multiple species. Fifty years ago, following the wide-scale manufacture and use of antibiotics and vaccines, it seemed that the battle against infections was being won for the human population. Since then, however, and in addition to increasing antimicrobial resistance among bacterial pathogens, there has been an increase in the emergence of, mostly viral, zoonotic diseases from wildlife, sometimes causing fatal outbreaks of epidemic proportions. Concurrently, infectious disease has been identified as an increasing threat to wildlife conservation. A synthesis published in 2000 showed common anthropogenic drivers of disease threats to biodiversity and human health, including encroachment and destruction of wildlife habitat and the human-assisted spread of pathogens. Almost two decades later, the situation has not changed and, despite improved knowledge of the underlying causes, little has been done at the policy level to address these threats. For the sake of public health and wellbeing, human-kind needs to work better to conserve nature and preserve the ecosystem services, including disease regulation, that biodiversity provides while also understanding and mitigating activities which lead to disease emergence. We consider that holistic, One Health approaches to the management and mitigation of the risks of emerging infectious diseases have the greatest chance of success. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %V 372 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 3 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000402751700006 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2016.0167 %M 0962-8436 %0 Journal Article %J Science of The Total Environment %D 2017 %T Operationalizing safe operating space for regional social-ecological systems %A Hossain, Md Sawar %A Dearing, John A. %A Eigenbrod, Felix %A Johnson, Fiifi Amoako %X

This study makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at a regional scale by considering the complex dynamics (e.g. non-linearity, feedbacks, and interactions) within a systems dynamic model (SD). We employ the model to explore eight ‘what if’ scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawal). The findings show that the social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2 °C temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5 °C temperature increase was reached. The social-ecological system in Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase the long-term resilience, 2) negotiating for transboundary water resources, and 3) revising global policies (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) that negatively impact at regional scales. This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations, and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems.

%B Science of The Total Environment %V 584-585 %P 673-682 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000399358500066 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.095 %0 Book Section %B Soil management and climate change: effects on organic carbon, nitrogen dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions %D 2017 %T Organic carbon stocks in all pools following land cover change in the rainforest of Madagascar %A Mieja Razafindrakoto %A Andry Andriamananjara %A Tantely Razafimbelo %A Jennifer Hewson %A Riana H. Andrisoa %A Julia P.G. Jones %A Ilja van Meerveld %A Alison Cameron %A Ntsoa Ranaivoson %A Nandrianina Ramifehiarivo %A Nantenaina Ramboatiana %A Ravo N.G. Razafinarivo %A Tahiana Ramananantoandro %A Andriambolantsoa Rasolohery %A Marie P. Razafimanantsoa %A Christophe Jourdan %A Laurent Saint-Andre %A Gabrielle Rajoelison %A Herintsitohaina Razakamanarivo %X

Terrestrial ecosystems represent the most imprtant carbon (c) sink with their capacity to store almost three times that of the atmosphere (Trumper et al., 2009). Further, approximately 40% of terrestrial C is stored in tropical forests, sequestering large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (Beer et al., 2010; Pan et al., 2011). However, these forests are threatened by high rates of conversion to other land uses, constituting a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contributing to climate change (Fearnside, 2000; Houghton, 2005). The UN initiative, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+), represents one path aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change by conserving tropical forests threatened by deforestation or degradation (Day et al., 2013). It aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from developing countries through the sustainable managment of forests, while providing co-benefits of biodiversity conservation and livelihood support (Danielsen et al., 2011). Accurate carbon stock quantification represents one important step in ensuring the successful implementation of REDD+, as such information is needed for validation and verification of emissions reductions. (Gibbs et al., 2007; Saatchi et al., 2011).

In eastern Madagascar, deforestation is mainly due to slash-and-burn agriculture (Styger et al., 2007), which results in a mosaic of land use types where fallows are prevalent (Nambena, 2003). To address deforestation in one area of this region, many activities have been implemented, including the development of a REDD+ project initiated by the Government of Madagascar in 2008 (Conservation International, 2013). REDD+ demands a precise estimation of the amount of C stored in forest and other land use types in order to accurately calculate, for example, the emissions avoided due to the presence of a REDD+ project (Andriamananjara et al., 2016). This is needed because the contribution of the C pools may vary across the landscape. The majority of studies to date on C accounting in different forest ecosystems in Madagascar considered separately the C pools, while studies of the estimation of C stock that consider all five C pools are scarce (Andriamananjara et al., 2016; Grinand et al., 2017; Razakamanarivo et al., 2011, 2012).

In this chapter, we firstly review a recent study that accounted C stocks in all five pools recognized by the IPCC (2003), including AGB, BGB, litter, deadwood (DW), and SOC. Afterwards, we identify their dynamics across land uses following deforestation.

%B Soil management and climate change: effects on organic carbon, nitrogen dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions %I Academic Press %P 396 %G eng %K https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=nk2ZDgAAQBAJ&pg=PA25&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=4#v=onepage&q&f=false %1 NE/K010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %& 3 %0 Book Section %D 2017 %T Partnership in climate change adaptation %A Chiotha, S. %X

Chapter 9 in Rethinking African Partnerships for Global Solutions.

INTRODUCTION

Scientific evidence indicates with increasing certainty that the current changes in the earth’s climate system are happening as a result of human agency (Patberg and Stripple, 2007). These changes include a number of catastrophic or unusual weather events taking place at an accelerated pace, notably floods, drought and tropical storms (IPCC, 2007; Stern, 2007; Serdeczny, et al., 2016; Chiotha & Kamdonyo, 2017).

%I Michigan State University’s Alliance for African Partnership %G eng %K http://aap.isp.msu.edu/files/3614/9857/2443/AAP_Thought_Piece.pdf %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Human Ecology %D 2017 %T People, patches, and parasites: the case of Trypanosomiasis in Zimbabwe. %A Scoones, Ian %A Dzingirai, Vupenyu %A Anderson, Neil %A MacLeod, Ewen %A Mangwanya, Lindiwe %A Matawa, Farai %A Murwira, Amon %A Nyakupinda, Learnmore %A Shereni, William %A Welburn, Sue %X Understanding the socio-ecology of disease requires careful attention to the role of patches within disease landscapes. Such patches, and the interfaces between different socio-epidemiological systems, we argue, have important implications for disease control. We conducted an interdisciplinary study over three years to investigate the spatial dynamics of human and animal trypanosomiasis in the Zambezi valley, Zimbabwe. We used a habitat niche model to identify changes in suitable habitat for tsetse fly vectors over time, and this is related to local villagers’ understandings of where flies are found. Fly trapping and blood DNA analysis of livestock highlighted the patchy distribution of both flies and trypanosome parasites. Through livelihoods analysis we explored who makes use of what areas of the landscape and when, identifying the social groups most at risk. We conclude with a discussion of the practical implications, including the need for an integrated ‘One Health’ approach involving targeted approaches to both vector control and surveillance. %B Human Ecology %V 45 %P 643-654 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000415048700007 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s10745-017-9929-y %M 0300-7839 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health %D 2017 %T Peri-urbanism in globalizing India: a study of pollution, health and community awareness %A Waldman, Linda %A Bisht, Ramila %A Saharia, Rajashree %A Kapoor, Abhinav %A Rizvi, Bushra %A Hamid, Yasir %A Arora, Meghana %A Chopra, Ima %A Sawansi, Kumud T. %A Priya, Ritu %A Marshall, Fiona %X This paper examines the intersection between environmental pollution and people’s acknowledgements of, and responses to, health issues in Karhera, a former agricultural village situated between the rapidly expanding cities of New Delhi (India’s capital) and Ghaziabad (an industrial district in Uttar Pradesh). A relational place-based view is integrated with an interpretive approach, highlighting the significance of place, people’s emic experiences, and the creation of meaning through social interactions. Research included surveying 1788 households, in-depth interviews, participatory mapping exercises, and a review of media articles on environment, pollution, and health. Karhera experiences both domestic pollution, through the use of domestic waste water, or gandapani, for vegetable irrigation, and industrial pollution through factories’ emissions into both the air and water. The paper shows that there is no uniform articulation of any environment/health threats associated with gandapani. Some people take preventative actions to avoid exposure while others do not acknowledge health implications. By contrast, industrial pollution is widely noted and frequently commented upon, but little collective action addresses this. The paper explores how the characteristics of Karhera, its heterogeneous population, diverse forms of environmental pollution, and broader governance processes, limit the potential for citizen action against pollution. %B International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health %V 14 %G eng %1 ne/l001292/1 %2 ne-l001292-1 %4 Bangladesh; India; Nepal %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3390/ijerph14090980 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health %D 2017 %T Peri-urbanism in globalizing India: a study of pollution, health and community awareness %A Linda Waldman %A Ramila Bisht %A Rajashree Saharia %A Abhinav Kapoor %A Bushra Rizvi %A Yasir Hamid %A Meghana Arora %A Ima Chopra %A Kumud T. Sawansi %A Ritu Priya %A Fiona Marshall %X

This paper examines the intersection between environmental pollution and people’s acknowledgements of, and responses to, health issues in Karhera, a former agricultural village situated between the rapidly expanding cities of New Delhi (India’s capital) and Ghaziabad (an industrial district in Uttar Pradesh). A relational place-based view is integrated with an interpretive approach, highlighting the significance of place, people’s emic experiences, and the creation of meaning through social interactions. Research included surveying 1788 households, in-depth interviews, participatory mapping exercises, and a review of media articles on environment, pollution, and health. Karhera experiences both domestic pollution, through the use of domestic waste water, or gandapani, for vegetable irrigation, and industrial pollution through factories’ emissions into both the air and water. The paper shows that there is no uniform articulation of any environment/health threats associated with gandapani. Some people take preventative actions to avoid exposure while others do not acknowledge health implications. By contrast, industrial pollution is widely noted and frequently commented upon, but little collective action addresses this. The paper explores how the characteristics of Karhera, its heterogeneous population, diverse forms of environmental pollution, and broader governance processes, limit the potential for citizen action against pollution.

%B International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health %V 14 %8 09/2017 %G eng %N 9 %1 NE/L001292/1 %2 ne-l001292-1 %+ Yes %R 10.3390/ijerph14090980 %0 Journal Article %J Sustainable Development %D 2017 %T Poorer without it? The neglected role of the natural environment in poverty and wellbeing %A Judith Schleicher %A Marije Scaafsma %A Neil D. Burgess %A Chris Sandbrook %A Fiona Danks %A Chris Cowie %A Bhaskar Vira %X

The relationship between sustainable development's prime goal, human wellbeing, and the natural environment has been narrowly conceived. This paper focuses on the possibility and the implications of treating the natural environment as a ‘constituent’, or internal element, of the concepts of wellbeing and poverty, as opposed to a ‘determinant’, or instrumental, external factor. Our review of philosophical accounts and conceptual frameworks of wellbeing and poverty suggests that treating the environment as a constituent element is philosophically sound, conceptually robust and empirically grounded. We argue that failing to consider these missing environmental aspects can result in an incomplete capturing of the multiple dimensions of wellbeing and poverty, and their underlying drivers. This broader framing of the environment–wellbeing relationship has the potential to inform a new generation of individual level wellbeing and poverty indicators, creating measures of multidimensional poverty that reflect the broadened scope ambitiously articulated in the Sustainable Development Goals. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Sustainable Development published by ERP Environment and John Wiley & Sons Ltd

%B Sustainable Development %8 08/2017 %G eng %1 NE/M00760X/1 %2 ne-m00760x-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/sd.1692 %0 Journal Article %J Critical Public Health %D 2017 %T The publics of public health in Africa %A Kelly, Ann H. %A MacGregor, Hayley %A Montgomery, Catherine M. %X

How do we understand the public character of public health in contemporary Africa? What are the parameters of community engagement in health care delivery, medical research and disease control programmes? To what extent is public health in Africa a project led by African Governments? Through what political processes and deliberative practices can African publics influence the priorities of research in health sciences and interventions which aim in broad terms to improve the health of such publics? Drawing insight from empirical research conducted with African scientists, nurses, community members, clinical trialists and policy-makers, this special section examines the multiple ways in which the public comes into being around public health provisioning and investigation in sub-Saharan Africa, its role and political reach. Collectively, these papers show how contestation and negotiation around different ideas about who the public is and what being public means can lead to the emergence of conflicting understandings, with implications for who and what is seen to represent the public interest, and for the acceptance of research and other interventions.

%B Critical Public Health %I ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD %V 27 %P 1-5 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000390126800001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1080/09581596.2016.1254178 %M 0958-1596 %0 Journal Article %J World Development %D 2017 %T Qualitative and quantitative evidence on the true local welfare costs of forest conservation in Madagascar: Are discrete choice experiments a valid ex ante tool? %A Rakotonarivo, O. Sarobidy %A Jacobsen, Jette B. %A Larsen, Helle O. %A Jones, Julia P. G. %A Nielsen, Martin R. %A Ramamonjisoa, Bruno S. %A Mandimbiniaina, Rina H. %A Hockley, Neal %X

Protected areas may impose local welfare costs through the enforcement of use restrictions. Predicting their welfare impacts before their establishment could help with the design of compensation schemes. Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are increasingly used for ex ante evaluations but their validity is largely untested in low-income settings. Using a case study of a new REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) project in eastern Madagascar, we explore the validity of DCEs in two ways: (i) whether the estimates of welfare costs derived from DCE are affected by respondents' prior experience of conservation (ii) whether DCE results have high theoretical and content validity. We surveyed households who have varying degrees of experience of restrictions to swidden agriculture. We also qualitatively debriefed a sub-sample of respondents to better understand their thought processes. Latent class analysis shows that DCE outcomes vary with conservation experience. Households more experienced with forest protection are less willing to trade-off rights to clear forest for swidden agriculture with any compensatory interventions whereas less experienced households highly favor support for alternative agricultural techniques and a secure right to clear one hectare of forest. Although the results show apparent non-attendance to some attributes (e.g., cash payments), qualitative debriefings suggest that respondents infact do expect relatively low or no utility from the given attributes and hence have theoretically valid preferences. Similarly, the DCE has generally high content validity. Although DCE can elicit current preferences in this context, using ex ante DCE to estimate the welfare costs of such a long-term intervention requires caution. We conclude that it is difficult to robustly estimate compensation in advance of an intervention, there is therefore a need to rethink conservation approaches, and the feasibility of achieving fair compensations for conservation-imposed restrictions. (C) 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

%B World Development %I PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD %V 94 %P 478-491 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %4 Madagascar %# 000399269800033 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.02.009 %M 0305-750X %0 Report %D 2017 %T Realising the promise of Tanzania’s Wildlife Management Areas %A K. Homewood %A A. Keane %A J.F. Lund %A N. Burgess %A M. Msuha %A J. Bluwstein %A M. Nielsen %A J. Olila %A A. Dancer %X

Tanzania’s Community Wildlife Management Areas (CWMAs) – originally called Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) – were intended to benefit both people and wildlife. However, for their first two decades, CWMAs have been characterised by land conflict, wildlife damage to people and crops, lack of tourism potential and high administration costs among other negative impacts. Can rethinking how CWMAs are run bring about the benefits once promised?

Key messages of this policy brief include:

%G eng %1 NE/L00139X/1 %2 ne-l00139x-1 %0 Journal Article %J Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment %D 2017 %T Rebuilding soil hydrological functioning after swidden agriculture in eastern Madagascar %A Zwartendijk, B. W. %A van Meerveld, H. J. %A Ghimire, C. P. %A Bruijnzeel, L. A. %A Ravelona, M. %A Jones, J. P. G. %X

Land-use change due to the widespread practice of swidden agriculture affects the supply of ecosystem services. However, there is comparatively little understanding of how the hydrological functioning of soils, which affects rainfall infiltration and therefore flood risk, dry-season flows and surface erosion, is affected by repeated vegetation clearing and burning, the extent to which this can recover following land abandonment and vegetation regrowth, and whether active restoration speeds up recovery. We used interviews with local land users and indicator plant species to reconstruct the land-use history of 19 different sites in upland eastern Madagascar that represent four different land-use categories: semi mature forests that were never burnt but were influenced by manual logging until 15-20 years ago; fallows that were actively reforested 6-9 years ago; 2-10 year old naturally regenerating fallows; and highly degraded fire-climax grassland sites. Surface- and hear-surface (down to 30 cm depth) saturated soil hydraulic conductivities (K-sat), as Well as the dominant flow pathways for infiltration and percolation were determined for each land-cover type. Surface K-sat in the forest sites was very high (median: 724 mm h(-1)) and infiltration was dominated by flow along roots and other preferential flow pathways (macropores), whereas K-sat in the degraded land was low (median: 45 mm h(-1)) with infiltration being dominated by near-surface matrix flow. The total area of blue-dye stains was inversely correlated to the K-sat,. Both surface- and near-surface K-sat had increased significantly after 6-9 years of forest regeneration (median values of 203 and 161 mm h(-1) for reforestation and natural regeneration, respectively). Additional observations are needed to more fully understand the rates at which soil hydrological functioning can be rebuilt and whether active replanting decreases the time required to restore soil hydrological functioning or not. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

%B Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment %I ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV %V 239 %P 101-111 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %3 2 %4 Madagascar %# 000397550100010 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.002 %M 0167-8809 %0 Journal Article %J F1000research %D 2017 %T Semantics for interoperability of distributed data and models: foundations for better-connected information %A Villa, Ferdinando %A Balbi, Stefano %A Athanasiadis, Ioannis N. %A Caracciolo, Caterina %X Correct and reliable linkage of independently produced information is a requirement to enable sophisticated applications and processing workflows. These can ultimately help address the challenges posed by complex systems (such as socio-ecological systems), whose many components can only be described through independently developed data and model products. We discuss the first outcomes of an investigation in the conceptual and methodological aspects of semantic annotation of data and models, aimed to enable a high standard of interoperability of information. The results, operationalized in the context of a long-term, active, large-scale project on ecosystem services assessment, include: A definition of interoperability based on semantics and scale; A conceptual foundation for the phenomenology underlying scientific observations, aimed to guide the practice of semantic annotation in domain communities; A dedicated language and software infrastructure that operationalizes the findings and allows practitioners to reap the benefits of data and model interoperability. The work presented is the first detailed description of almost a decade of work with communities active in socio-ecological system modeling. After defining the boundaries of possible interoperability based on the understanding of scale, we discuss examples of the practical use of the findings to obtain consistent, interoperable and machine-ready semantic specifications that can integrate semantics across diverse domains and disciplines. %B F1000research %V 6 %G eng %1 ne/l001322/1 %2 ne-l001322-1 %4 Benin; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Equatorial Guinea; Ethiopia; Ghana; Kenya; Malawi; Namibia; Nigeria; Sierra Leone; South Africa; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.12688/f1000research.11638.1 %0 Book %D 2017 %T Soil Management and Climate Change: effects on organic carbon, nitrogen dynamics, and greenhouse gas emissions %A Munoz, Maria %E Zornoza, Raul %X This book provides a state of the art overview of recent findings and future research challenges regarding physical, chemical and biological processes controlling soil carbon, nitrogen dynamic and greenhouse gas emissions from soils. This book is for students and academics in soil science and environmental science, land managers, public administrators and legislators, and will increase understanding of organic matter preservation in soil and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Given the central role soil plays on the global carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, there is an urgent need to increase our common understanding about sources, mechanisms and processes that regulate organic matter mineralization and stabilization, and to identify those management practices and processes which mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, helping increase organic matter stabilization with suitable supplies of available N. %I Elsevier Science Publishing Co Inc %@ 9780128121283 %G eng %K https://www.elsevier.com/books/soil-management-and-climate-change/munoz/978-0-12-812128-3 %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %4 Madagascar %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Alpine Research %D 2017 %T Soviet legacy in the operation of pasture governance institutions in present-day Kyrgyz Republic %A Isaeva, Aiganysh %A Shigaeva, Jyldyz %X

The paper looks at the Soviet legacy in pasture governance systems of Kyrgyzstan that reproduce Soviet-era practices, meanings and power hierarchies. The study focuses on the current operation of local-level institutions (Pasture Users Associations and Pasture Committees) and the changing role of herders as a key pasture user category in the new socio-economic environment. Path dependence theory, which posits that old institutions continue to structure new policy arrangements, frames the analysis. Empirical data collected in Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn Province show how non-participatory decision-making and implementation modes, as well as the meanings surrounding pasture use, that were shaped during the Soviet era, still influence institutions in the present day, along with established patterns amongst resource users and between resource users and their environment.

%B Journal Of Alpine Research %V 105-1 %G eng %K https://rga.revues.org/3631 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %M 1760-7426 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %D 2017 %T Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa %A Redding, David W. %A Tiedt, Sonia %A Lo Iacono, Gianni %A Bett, Bernard %A Jones, Kate E. %X Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. %B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %I ROYAL SOC %V 372 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 3 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000402751700004 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2016.0165 %M 0962-8436 %0 Journal Article %J Conservation & Society %D 2017 %T The sweet and the bitter: Intertwined positive and negative social impacts of a biodiversity offset %A Bidaud, Cecile %A Schreckenberg, Kate %A Rabeharison, Manolotsoa %A Ranjatson, Patrick %A Gibbons, James %A Jones, Julia P. G. %X

Major developments, such as mines, will often have unavoidable environmental impacts. In such cases, investors, governments, or even a company's own standards increasingly require implementation of biodiversity offsets (investment in conservation with a measurable outcome) with the aim of achieving 'no net loss' or even a 'net gain' of biodiversity. Where conservation is achieved by changing the behaviour of people directly using natural resources, the offset might be expected to have social impacts but such impacts have received very little attention. Using the case study of Ambatovy, a major nickel mine in the eastern rainforests of Madagascar and a company at the vanguard of developing biodiversity offsets, we explore local perceptions of the magnitude and distribution of impacts of the biodiversity offset project on local wellbeing. We used both qualitative (key informant interviews and focus group discussions) and quantitative (household survey) methods. We found that the biodiversity offsets, which comprise both conservation restrictions and development activities, influenced wellbeing in a mixture of positive and negative ways. However, overall, respondents felt that they had suffered a net cost from the biodiversity offset. It is a matter of concern that benefits from development activities do not compensate for the costs of the conservation restrictions, that those who bear the costs are not the same people as those who benefit, and that there is a mismatch in timing between the immediate restrictions and the associated development activities which take some time to deliver benefits. These issues matter both from the perspective of environmental justice, and for the long- term sustainability of the biodiversity benefits the offset is supposed to deliver.

%B Conservation & Society %I MEDKNOW PUBLICATIONS & MEDIA PVT LTD %V 15 %P 1-13 %G eng %N 7 %1 fell-2014-102 %2 fell-2014-102 %4 Madagascar %# 000396162500001 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.4103/0972-4923.196315 %M 0972-4923 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2017 %T Tanzania’s community forests: their impact on human well-being and persistence in spite of the lack of benefit %A Gross-Camp, N. %X In this paper I describe the influence of community-based forest management (CBFM) on the well-being of local stakeholders in eight Tanzanian villages. The justification for this focus is based on the broad, international support for CBFM, support for its expansion within Tanzania specifically, and foundational belief that CBFM has the potential to provide significant social benefits to the communities in which it is practiced. Using a participatory video process, I developed a questionnaire to help quantify and qualify changes in aspects of well-being over a 10-year period, 2005–2015. %B Ecology and Society %V 22 %G eng %1 fell-2014-101 %2 fell-2014-101 %4 Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000399397700045 %6 ESPA Fellowships %] 1 %+ No %R 10.5751/ES-09124-220137 %0 Journal Article %J European Journal of Soil Science %D 2017 %T Towards a better understanding of soil organic carbon variation in Madagascar %A Andry Andriamananjara %A Ntsoa Ranaivoson %A Tantely M. Razafimbelo %A Jenny Hewson %A Nandrianina Ramifehiarivo %A Andriambolantsoa Rasolohery %A Riana H. Andrisoa %A Mieja A. Razafindrakoto %A M.-P. Razafimanantsoa %A N. Rabetokotany %A Herintsitohaina Razakamanarivo %X

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems. Prediction of SOC based on soil properties and environmental factors helps to describe the spatial and vertical distribution in SOC; however, the effectiveness and accuracy of various prediction methods, including classical and recently developed model approaches, need to be tested for tropical soil and environments. In this study, random forest (RF) and linear mixed effects model (LMM) approaches were tested to predict the spatial and vertical variation of SOC stocks in Eastern Madagascar. Topography, climate, soil types and vegetation-based variables were used as predictor variables for modelling SOC stocks at different soil depths to 1 m. The LMM was the most accurate method for predicting SOC stocks for different depth ranges; altitude, soil clay content, land use and precipitation were identified as the most relevant factors for prediction. The accuracy of prediction in SOC modelling decreased with increasing soil depth, resulting in a root mean square prediction error (RMSE) that ranged from 1.98 Mg ha−1 (90–100-cm depth) to 5.54 Mg ha−1 (10–20-cm depth) for LMM, which resolved 43–68% of the variation in SOC stocks. Explanatory variables, which contributed to the fixed effect of the model, explained from 2.6 to 28.2% of the total variance, whereas the random effect contributed from 21.7 to 35.0%. This study emphasizes the strength of LMM for predicting SOC stocks in tropical soil taking into account the random effect related to sampling. These results could be used to improve SOC mapping in Madagascar.

%B European Journal of Soil Science %V 68 %P 930-940 %8 11/2017 %G eng %1 NE/K010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %& 930 %R 10.1111/ejss.12473 %0 Journal Article %J Forest Policy and Economics %D 2017 %T Trees, soils, and warthogs – Distribution of services and disservices from reforestation areas in southern Ethiopia %A Anja Byg %A Paula Novo %A Mengistu Dinato %A Awdenegest Moges %A Tewodros Tefera %A Bedru Balana %A Teshale Woldeamanuel %A Helaina Black %X

Conservation projects have often been criticised for creating global benefits while causing negative impacts on local livelihoods. Ecosystem services approaches have been seen as one way to change this by focussing explicitly on maintaining ecosystems for human well-being of stakeholders at various scales. However, ecosystem services approaches have often ignored trade-offs between groups of people and issues of power and do not automatically lead to better outcomes in terms of human well-being. Here we report on a study on the impacts of reforestation projects with an explicit focus on human well-being in three communities in southern Ethiopia. We investigated the distribution of services and disservices from reforestation using qualitative methods. Results showed that the services and disservices from reforestation were distributed unequally across space and wealth groups resulting in widespread dissatisfaction with existing reforestation projects despite the explicit focus on human benefits. To improve outcomes of reforestation it is necessary to acknowledge and manage disservices adaptively, include issues of power and make trade-offs transparent.

%B Forest Policy and Economics %V 84 %P 112-119 %8 11/2017 %G eng %1 NE/K010441/1 %2 ne-k010441-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.forpol.2017.06.002 %0 Journal Article %J Conservation Biology %D 2017 %T Understanding conservationists' perspectives on the new-conservation debate %A Holmes, George %A Sandbrook, Chris %A Fisher, Janet A. %X

A vibrant debate about the future direction of biodiversity conservation centers on the merits of the so-called new conservation. Proponents of the new conservation advocate a series of positions on key conservation ideas, such as the importance of human-dominated landscapes and conservation's engagement with capitalism. These have been fiercely contested in a debate dominated by a few high-profile individuals, and so far there has been no empirical exploration of existing perspectives on these issues among a wider community of conservationists. We used Q methodology to examine empirically perspectives on the new conservation held by attendees at the 2015 International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB). Although we identified a consensus on several key issues, 3 distinct positions emerged: in favor of conservation to benefit people but opposed to links with capitalism and corporations, in favor of biocentric approaches but with less emphasis on wilderness protection than prominent opponents of new conservation, and in favor of the published new conservation perspective but with less emphasis on increasing human well-being as a goal of conservation. Our results revealed differences between the debate on the new conservation in the literature and views held within a wider, but still limited, conservation community and demonstrated the existence of at least one viewpoint (in favor of conservation to benefit people but opposed to links with capitalism and corporations) that is almost absent from the published debate. We hope the fuller understanding we present of the variety of views that exist but have not yet been heard, will improve the quality and tone of debates on the subject.

%B Conservation Biology %I WILEY %V 31 %P 353-363 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/m007103/1 %2 ne-m007103-1 %3 1 %4 Bolivia; China; Global; Nepal; Uganda %# 000395713800012 %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/cobi.12811 %M 0888-8892 %0 Journal Article %J Energy and Environment Research %D 2017 %T Understanding land use, land cover and woodland-based ecosystem services change, Mabalane, Mozambique %A Mahamane, Mansour %A Zorilla-Miras, Pedro %A Verweij, Peter %A Sitoe, Almeida %A Ryan, Casey %A Patenaude, Genevieve %A Grundy, Isla %A Nhantumbo, Isilda %A Metzger, Marc J %A Ribeiro, Natasha %A Baumert, Sophia %A Vollmer, Frank %X Charcoal production constitutes a key ecosystem service in Mozambique, with an estimated market value of US$400 million a year. Due to the central role the charcoal industry plays in local livelihoods, availability of suitable wood for charcoal production has decreased because of changes in land use and land cover (LULC). This paper applied a probabilistic modelling approach combining Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing data, field data, and expertise from different stakeholders to understand how changes in LULC affect woodland-based ecosystem services (ES) in the Mabalane landscape, southern Mozambique. Three scenarios of policy interventions were tested: Large private; Small holder and Balanced. A BBNs was used to explore the influence of these scenarios from 2014 to 2035 on the resulting LULC. This research facilitated stakeholder engagement and improved the understanding of the interaction between LULC changes and woodland-based ES. The results highlighted the importance and spatial distribution of woodland-based ES to the local communities and that availability of suitable wood for ES will decrease under the first scenario %B Energy and Environment Research %V 7 %G eng %1 ne/k010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %4 Mozambique %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5539/eer.v7n1p1 %0 Journal Article %J Energy and Environment Research %D 2017 %T Understanding land use, land cover and woodland-based ecosystem services change, Mabalane, Mozambique %A M. Mahamane %A P. Zorilla-Miras %A P. Verweij %A A. Sitoe %A C. Ryan %A G. Patenaude %A I. Grundy %A I. Nhantumbo %A M.J. Metzger %A N. Ribeiro %A S. Baumert %A F. Vollmer %X

Charcoal production constitutes a key ecosystem service in Mozambique, with an estimated market value of US$400 million a year. Due to the central role the charcoal industry plays in local livelihoods, availability of suitable wood for charcoal production has decreased because of changes in land use and land cover (LULC). This paper applied a probabilistic modelling approach combining Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing data, field data, and expertise from different stakeholders to understand how changes in LULC affect woodland-based ecosystem services (ES) in the Mabalane landscape, southern Mozambique. Three scenarios of policy interventions were tested: Large private; Small holder and Balanced. A BBNs was used to explore the influence of these scenarios from 2014 to 2035 on the resulting LULC. This research facilitated stakeholder engagement and improved the understanding of the interaction between LULC changes and woodland-based ES. The results highlighted the importance and spatial distribution of woodland-based ES to the local communities and that availability of suitable wood for ES will decrease under the first scenario.

%B Energy and Environment Research %V 7 %8 05/2017 %G eng %K https://doi.org/10.5539/eer.v7n1p1 %N 1 %1 NE/K010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %R 10.5539/eer.v7n1p1 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Policy %D 2017 %T Understanding trade-offs in upscaling and integrating climate-smart agriculture and sustainable river basin management in Malawi %A Marije Schaafsma %A Henri Utila %A Mark Hirons %X

This paper presents an assessment of the potential trade-offs between social, economic and environmental objectives when upscaling and integrating climate-smart agriculture (CSA) with integrated catchment management (ICM) at landscape level, with a case study in Malawi. In a workshop, government and NGO representatives and experts assessed trade-offs between the goals of ICM and CSA under four different scenarios of climatic and economic changes. The paper presents a novel combination of scenarios and a trade-off matrix exercise to critically evaluate trade-offs between CSA and ICM and link these to policy challenges and interventions. Our analysis shows that the compatibility of CSA and ICM policies depends on future climatic and economic developments, with a higher prevalence of perceived trade-offs in futures with low economic growth and high climate change. CSA was expected to have limited effect on reducing inequalities and investment in literacy and skills development are critical to ensure that marginalised groups benefit from CSA.

%B Environmental Science & Policy %V 80 %P 117-124 %G eng %K https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117302150 %1 FELL-2014-104 %2 fell-2014-104 %R 10.1016/j.envsci.2017.11.007 %0 Journal Article %J Sustainability Science %D 2017 %T Unravelling the association between the impact of natural hazards and household poverty: evidence from the Indian Sundarban delta %A Hajra, Rituparna %A Szabo, Sylvia %A Tessler, Zachary %A Ghosh, Tuhin %A Matthews, Zoe %A Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi %X

Coastal regions have long been settled by humans due to their abundant resources for livelihoods, including agriculture, transportation, and rich biodiversity. However, natural and anthropogenic factors, such as climate change and sea-level rise, and land subsidence, population pressure, developmental activities, pose threats to coastal sustainability. Natural hazards, such as fluvial or coastal floods, impact poorer and more vulnerable communities greater than more affluent communities. Quantitative assessments of how natural hazards affect vulnerable communities in deltaic regions are still limited, hampering the design of effective management strategies to increase household and community resilience. Drawing from Driving Forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR), we quantify the associations between household poverty and the likelihood of material and human loss following a natural hazard using new survey data from 783 households within Indian Sundarban Delta community. The results suggest that the poorest households are significantly more likely to endure material and human losses following a natural hazard and repeated losses of livelihood make them more vulnerable to future risk. The results further suggest that salinization, tidal surge, erosion, and household location are also significant predictors of economic and human losses. Given the current and projected impact of climate change and importance of delta regions as the world's food baskets, poverty reduction and increase societal resilience should be a primary pathway to strengthen the resilience of the poorest populations inhabiting deltas.

%B Sustainability Science %I SPRINGER JAPAN KK %V 12 %P 453-464 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000399781600008 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s11625-016-0420-2 %M 1862-4065 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal Of Sustainable Development And World Ecology %D 2017 %T Unravelling the interrelationships between ecosystem services and human wellbeing in the Bangladesh delta %A Hossain, Md Sarwar %A Eigenbrod, Felix %A Johnson, Fiifi Amoako %A Dearing, John A. %X

Coupled social and ecological systems need to be understood from a dynamic perspective in order to operationalise complexity concepts, such as tipping points, for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, we strive to achieve this type of conceptual understanding through the analysis of the relationships (e.g. strength, nonlinearity) between the trends of ecosystem services (ES) and human wellbeing (HWB) between 1960 and 2010 in the south-west Bangladesh delta using generalized additive and logistic regression models. We use sequential principal components analysis to investigate the connectedness within the social-ecological system as a measure of resilience. We also use published literature to help develop a system dynamic framework in order to investigate how ES and HWB are interlinked. Overall, our results support previous work, which depicts that material wellbeing (basic materials for a good life) having a strong relationship with provisioning services, which in turn, show a weak relationship with the quality of life (security and health). Moreover, our analysis confirms the 'Environmentalist's Paradox' that HWB has increased despite the deterioration in ES. However, our results suggest that provisioning services are not the only important reason for the increases in observed HWB, as these have also been substantially influenced by technology and capital investment (aid and subsidy). In addition, worsening trends in regulation services and in 'slow' variables such as climate suggest that the resilience of the overall social-ecological system is decreasing. Such changes may have severe consequences if they continue, for example, if temperatures exceed the upper physiological limits of key provisioning services (e.g. rice, fish) in the Bangladesh delta. These indicators all suggest that although in terms of HWB the deltaic social-ecological system may be successfully adapting to environmental change, it may also be close to transgressing critical ecological boundaries in the near future.

%B International Journal Of Sustainable Development And World Ecology %I TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC %V 24 %P 120-134 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 2 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000396777400002 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1080/13504509.2016.1182087 %M 1350-4509 %0 Report %D 2017 %T Upscaling climate smart agriculture - Understanding trade-offs using scenario analysis %A Marije Schaafsma %A Mark Hirons %A Henri Utila %X

Climate smart agriculture (CSA) links food security and global climate change. It has been adopted by international development organisations as the main pathway for sustainable agricultural development. When CSA is scaled up, can it be aligned with other landscape level policies? Who benefits? What are the trade-offs, synergies, barriers and policy responses when scaling up CSA under different climate and economic growth scenarios?

CSA will have limited effect on reducing inequalities and investment in literacy and skills development are critical to make sure that marginalised groups can benefit from CSA. CSA strategies must also suit small land holdings, encourage diversification and support market access. CSA strategies must be aligned with existing policies across sectors and Ministries.

%8 06/2017 %G eng %K http://www.espa.ac.uk/files/espa/Policy%20brief%20-%20June%202017.pdf %1 FELL-2014-104 %2 fell-2014-104 %0 Journal Article %J Nature Communications %D 2017 %T Upstream watershed condition predicts rural children's health across 35 developing countries %A Herrera, Diego %A Ellis, Alicia %A Fisher, Brendan %A Golden, Christopher D. %A Johnson, Kiersten %A Mulligan, Mark %A Pfaff, Alexander %A Treuer, Timothy %A Ricketts, Taylor H. %X Diarrheal disease (DD) due to contaminated water is a major cause of child mortality globally. Forests and wetlands can provide ecosystem services that help maintain water quality. To understand the connections between land cover and childhood DD, we compiled a database of 293,362 children in 35 countries with information on health, socioeconomic factors, climate, and watershed condition. Using hierarchical models, here we find that higher upstream tree cover is associated with lower probability of DD downstream. This effect is significant for rural households but not for urban households, suggesting differing dependence on watershed conditions. In rural areas, the effect of a 30% increase in upstream tree cover is similar to the effect of improved sanitation, but smaller than the effect of improved water source, wealth or education. We conclude that maintaining natural capital within watersheds can be an important public health investment, especially for populations with low levels of built capital. %B Nature Communications %I NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP %V 8 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %3 1 %4 Madagascar %# 000412518300007 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1038/s41467-017-00775-2 %M 2041-1723 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Modelling & Software %D 2017 %T User-driven design of decision support systems for polycentric environmental resources management %A Zulkafli, Zed %A Perez, Katya %A Vitolo, Claudia %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Karpouzoglou, Timothy %A Dewulf, Art %A De Bièvre, Bert %A Clark, Julian %A Hannah, David M. %A Shaheed, Simrita %X

Open and decentralized technologies such as the Internet provide increasing opportunities to create knowledge and deliver computer-based decision support for multiple types of users across scales. However, environmental decision support systems/tools (henceforth EDSS) are often strongly science driven and assuming single types of decision makers, and hence poorly suited for more decentralized and polycentric decision making contexts. In such contexts, EDSS need to be tailored to meet diverse user requirements to ensure that it provides useful (relevant), usable (intuitive), and exchangeable (institutionally unobstructed) information for decision support for different types of actors. To address these issues, we present a participatory framework for designing EDSS that emphasizes a more complete understanding of the decision making structures and iterative design of the user interface. We illustrate the application of the framework through a case study within the context of water-stressed upstream/downstream communities in Lima, Peru. (C) 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

%B Environmental Modelling & Software %I ELSEVIER SCI LTD %V 88 %P 58-73 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000392679800006 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.012 %M 1364-8152 %0 Journal Article %J Critical Public Health %D 2017 %T Zoonotic diseases: who gets sick, and why? Explorations from Africa %A Dzingirai, Vupenyu %A Bett, Bernard %A Bukachi, Sally %A Lawson, Elaine %A Mangwanya, Lindiwe %A Scoones, Ian %A Waldman, Linda %A Wilkinson, Annie %A Leach, Melissa %A Winnebah, Tom %X

Global risks of zoonotic disease are high on policy agendas. Increasingly, Africa is seen as a 'hotspot', with likely disease spillovers from animals to humans. This paper explores the social dynamics of disease exposure, demonstrating how risks are not generalised, but are related to occupation, gender, class and other dimensions of social difference. Through case studies of Lassa Fever in Sierra Leone, Henipah virus in Ghana, Rift Valley Fever in Kenya and Trypanosomiasis in Zimbabwe, the paper proposes a social difference space-time framework to assist the understanding of and response to zoonotic diseases within a 'One Health' approach.

%B Critical Public Health %I ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD %V 27 %P 97-110 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 6 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000390126800010 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/09581596.2016.1187260 %M 0958-1596 %0 Report %D 2016 %T Achieving multi-level, integrated governance of coastal ecosystems in Zanzibar %A Fiona Nunan %A Mwita Mangora %A Mwanahija Shalli %A Narriman Saleh Jiddawi %A A.Y. Nchimbi %X

Integration and coordination of objectives, policies and management approaches is widely seen as essential for the effective governance of coastal zones. Yet, developing an integrated and coordinated approach within government and with other actors, working at multiple levels and locations, is extremely challenging. The breadth of sectors, policies, actors, management approaches and levels may not always be appreciated or taken into account.

Viewing governance in terms of ‘multi-level governance’ would encourage greater attention to the many administrative levels, government sectors and non-governmental actors involved, and interactions between them.

Understanding of multi-level governance requires analysis in three areas: the multiplicities of levels, actors, policies and rules; the existence of, and opportunities and challenges for, vertical and horizontal interaction; assessment of governance through the application of governance principles.

This research brief was co-produced by the 'CESEA - Coastal Ecosystem Services in East Africa' project, and the 'Analysing the multi-level governance of renewable natural resources' project.

%8 11/2016 %G eng %K http://www.espa.ac.uk/files/espa/MLG_coastal_brief_Zanzibar_Nov_2016_final_0.pdf %1 NE/L001535/1 %2 ne-l001535-1 %0 Report %D 2016 %T Achieving multi-level, integrated governance of coastal ecosystems in Kenya %A Fiona Nunan %A Anne Kairu %A James Kairo %A Caroline Wanjiru %X

Integration and coordination of objectives, policies and management approaches is widely seen as essential for the effective governance of coastal zones. Yet, developing an integrated and coordinated approach within government and with other actors, working at multiple levels and locations, is extremely challenging. The breadth of sectors, policies, actors, management approaches and levels may not always be appreciated or taken into account.

Viewing governance in terms of ‘multi-level governance’ would encourage greater attention to the many administrative levels, government sectors and non-governmental actors involved, and interactions between them.

Understanding of multi-level governance requires analysis in three areas: the multiplicities of levels, actors, policies and rules; the existence of, and opportunities and challenges for, vertical and horizontal interaction; assessment of governance through the application of governance principles.

Greater coordination of governance could be sought through Integrated Coastal Zone Management, County Environment Committees and the National Mangrove Management Action Plan.

This research brief was co-produced by the 'CESEA - Coastal Ecosystem Services in East Africa' project, and the 'Analysing the multi-level governance of renewable natural resources' project.

%8 11/2016 %G eng %K http://www.espa.ac.uk/files/espa/MLG_coastal_brief_Kenya_Nov_2016_final_0.pdf %1 NE/L001535/1 %2 ne-l001535-1 %0 Book Section %B Handbook on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in Impact Assessment %D 2016 %T Addressing the interactions between biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation in impact assessment %A Dilys Roe %A Davide Geneletti %X
This chapter starts by presenting a conceptual framework to guide thinking about the interactions between different components or attributes of biodiversity and different dimensions of poverty. The framework recognises that both biodiversity and poverty are complex, multi-dimensional concepts and, furthermore, that the interactions between the two are mediated by a wide range of factors. In particular, cross-cutting determinants such as governance, policies on poverty and biodiversity protection, and population growth and density which are associated with the socio-economic context and are critical in determining whether or not biodiversity leads to actual poverty reduction. The chapter then continues by reviewing the existing evidence base on biodiversity-poverty linkages, drawing on a systematic mapping of the published and grey literature (Section 15.3). The findings of the review are used in Section 15.4 to formulate key distinctions that help to understand whether and how biodiversity helps in alleviating poverty, and in Section 15.5 to discuss their implications for impact assessment practice.
%B Handbook on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in Impact Assessment %I Edward Elgar Publishing %P 347-363 %G eng %1 EIRG-2011-173 %2 eirg-2011-173 %& 15 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Policy %D 2016 %T Advancing adaptive governance of social-ecological systems through theoretical multiplicity %A Karpouzoglou, Timothy %A Dewulf, Art %A Clark, Julian %X

In recent years there has been rising scientific and policy interest in the adaptive governance of social ecological systems. A systematic literature review of adaptive governance research during the period 2005-2014, demonstrates a vibrant debate taking place that spans a variety of empirical and theoretical approaches. The particular strength of adaptive governance is that it provides a theoretical lens for research that combines the analyses of novel governance capacities such as adaptive capacity, collaboration, scaling, knowledge and learning. As a way to give greater depth and analytical rigour to future studies over the next decade and beyond, we highlight the added value of theoretical multiplicity (i.e., focusing on the combination of theories to address complex problems). We argue that theoretical multiplicity can encourage stronger synergies between adaptive governance and other theoretical approaches and can help address epistemologically grey areas in adaptive governance scholarship, such as power and politics, inclusion and equity, short term and long term change, the relationship between public policy and adaptive governance. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

%B Environmental Science & Policy %I ELSEVIER SCI LTD %V 57 %P 1-9 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 12 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000370091400001 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.11.011 %M 1462-9011 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal Of Social Research Methodology %D 2016 %T An alternative ethics for research: Levinas and the unheard voices and unseen faces %A Vermeylen, Saskia %A Clark, Gordon %X

Some social scientists have criticised the workings of research-ethics committees on the grounds that their biomedical model is ill-suited to some social-science research in both practical and philosophical terms. In this paper we review these criticisms and propose an alternative approach to pre-research ethical review that is based on the philosophy of Emmanuel Levinas.

%B International Journal Of Social Research Methodology %P 1-14 %G eng %1 ne/i003819/1 %2 ne-i003819-1 %4 Zambia %# 000405333400006 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1080/13645579.2016.1220117 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2016 %T Are the major imperatives of food security missing in ecosystem services research? %A Cruz-Garcia, Gisella S. %A Sachet, Erwan %A Vanegas, Martha %A Piispanen, Kyle %X

It has been widely recognized that food security depends on the sustainable use and provisioning of ecosystem services. The goal of this paper is to present an overview of the scientific literature on ecosystem services and food security, with a major focus on case studies of farming communities in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, in order to answer the following research questions: (1) does ecosystem services research generate knowledge that helps to address the major imperatives of food security?, and (2) are the multiple linkages between ecosystem services and food security analyzed or assumed in research? The results of the study highlighted that food utilization, access and stability, which are the major food security challenges in the world, remained under-investigated. There is a major bias on food availability in relation to crop production, and most articles assumed that food security would improve by increasing crop productivity, but this hypothesis remained largely untested. Other research blind-spots were co-production, trade-offs and off-site effects of ecosystem services in relation to food security, gender and cultural services. The study concludes that ecosystem services research needs to improve efforts to generate knowledge that helps to address the main imperatives of food security.

%B Ecosystem Services %V 19 %P 19-31 %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000378049200003 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.04.001 %M 2212-0416 %0 Journal Article %J Conservation & Society %D 2016 %T Austere conservation: Understanding conflicts over resource governance in Tanzanian Wildlife Management Areas %A Bluwstein, Jevgeniy %A Moyo, Francis %A Kicheleri, Rose Peter %X

We explore how the regime of rules over access to land, natural, and financial resources reflects the degree of community ownership of a Wildlife Management Area (WMA) in Tanzania. Being discursively associated with participatory and decentralised approaches to natural resource management, WMA policies have the ambition to promote the empowerment of communities to decide over rules that govern access to land and resources. Our purpose is to empirically examine the spaces for popular participation in decision-making over rules of management created by WMA policies: that is, in what sense of the word are WMAs actually community-based? We do this by studying conflicts over the regime of rules over access to land and resources. Analytically, we focus on actors, their rights and meaningful powers to exert control over resource management, and on accountability relationships amongst the actors. Our findings suggest that WMAs foster very limited ownership, participation and collective action at the community level, because WMA governance follows an austere logic of centralized control over key resources. Thus, we suggest that it is difficult to argue that WMAs are community-owned conservation initiatives until a genuinely devolved and more flexible conservation model is implemented to give space for popular participation in rule-making.

%B Conservation & Society %I MEDKNOW PUBLICATIONS & MEDIA PVT LTD %V 14 %P 218-231 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/l00139x/1 %2 ne-l00139x-1 %3 3 %4 Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000385931200005 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.4103/0972-4923.191156 %M 0972-4923 %0 Book %D 2016 %T Bangladesh confronts climate change: Keeping our heads above water %A Roy, Manoj %A Hanlon, Joseph %A Hulme, David %X

Living in a low-lying and densely populated country on the front line of climate change, Bangladeshis are taking a lead in adapting to rising temperatures and campaigning to limit climate change. Global warming will worsen this country's existing environmental problems – causing a rise in sea level, more flooding and stronger, more damaging cyclones. Bangladeshis know what is coming, and how to respond, because they are already effectively combating environmental and social challenges. Cyclone shelters and warning systems have cut the fatality rate dramatically; new varieties of rice have raised nutrition levels; women's education has slowed population growth; land is being raised to respond to sea level rise. Bangladeshis will keep their heads above water, but at huge costs. Will the industrialised countries curb their greenhouse gas emissions and pay for the damage they have already done?

%I Anthem Press %@ 9781783086337 %G eng %K http://www.anthempress.com/bangladesh-confronts-climate-change-pb %1 ne/l001616/1 %2 ne-l001616-1 %4 Bangladesh; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Trends In Parasitology %D 2016 %T Beyond tsetse - Implications for research and control of human African trypanosomiasis epidemics. %A Welburn, S C %A Molyneux, D. H %A Maudlin, I. %X

Epidemics of both forms of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) are confined to spatially stable foci in Sub-Saharan Africa while tsetse distribution is widespread. Infection rates of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense in tsetse are extremely low and cannot account for the catastrophic epidemics of Gambian HAT (gHAT) seen over the past century. Here we examine the origins of gHAT epidemics and evidence implicating human genetics in HAT epidemiology. We discuss the role of stress causing breakdown of heritable tolerance in silent disease carriers generating gHAT outbreaks and see how peculiarities in the epidemiologies of gHAT and Rhodesian HAT (rHAT) impact on strategies for disease control.

%B Trends In Parasitology %V 32 %P 230-41 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 17 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000385892300009 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.pt.2015.11.008 %M 1471-4922 %0 Journal Article %J Botanica Marina %D 2016 %T Biomass and productivity of seagrasses in Africa %A Githaiga, Michael N. %A Gilpin, Linda %A Kairo, James G. %A Huxham, Mark %X

There is growing interest in carbon stocks and flows in seagrass ecosystems, but recent global reviews suggest a paucity of studies from Africa. This paper reviews work on seagrass productivity, biomass and sediment carbon in Africa. Most work was conducted in East Africa with a major geographical gap in West Africa. The mean above-ground, below-ground and total biomasses from all studies were 174.4, 474.6 and 514 g DW m-2, respectively with a global range of 461–738 g DW m-2. Mean annual production rate was 913 g DW m-2 year-1 (global range 816–1012 g DW m-2 year-1). No studies were found giving sediment organic carbon, demonstrating a major gap in seagrass blue carbon work. Given the small numbers of relevant papers and the large geographical areas left undescribed in Africa, any conclusions remain tentative and much remains to be done on seagrass studies in Africa.

%B Botanica Marina %V 59(2-3) %P 173 - 186 %G eng %1 ne/l001535/1 %2 ne-l001535-1 %3 2 %4 Kenya; Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000377547200008 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1515/bot-2015-0075 %0 Journal Article %J Wetlands %D 2016 %T Blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves: What could be the scenario after a century? %A Chanda, Abhra %A Mukhopadhyay, Anirban %A Ghosh, Tuhin %A Akhand, Anirban %A Mondal, Parimal %A Ghosh, Subhajit %A Mukherjee, Sandip %A Wolf, Judith %A Lázár, Attila N. %A Rahman, Md. Munsur %A Salehin, Mashfiqus %A Chowdhury, S. M. %A Hazra, Sugata %X

The total blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves was evaluated and the probable future status after a century was predicted based on the recent trend of changes in the last 30 years and implementing a hybrid model of Markov Chain and Cellular automata. At present 36.24 Tg C and 54.95 Tg C are stored in the above-ground and below-ground compartments respectively resulting in total blue carbon stock of 91.19 Tg C. According to the prediction 15.88 Tg C would be lost from this region by the year 2115. The low saline species composition classes dominated mainly by Heritiera spp. accounts for the major portion of the carbon sock at present (45.60 Tg C), while the highly saline regions stores only 14.90 Tg C. The prediction shows that after a hundred years almost 22.42 Tg C would be lost from the low saline regions accompanied by an increase of 8.20 Tg C in the high saline regions dominated mainly by Excoecaria sp. and Avicennia spp. The net carbon loss would be due to both mangrove area loss (similar to 510 km(2)) and change in species composition leading to 58.28 Tg of potential CO2 emission within the year 2115.

%B Wetlands %I SPRINGER %V 36 %P 1033-1045 %G eng %N 6 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000389630100005 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s13157-016-0819-7 %M 0277-5212 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2016 %T Challenging the win-win discourse on conservation and development: analyzing support for marine protected areas %A Chaigneau, Tomas %A Brown, Katrina %X

Conservation designations such as protected areas are increasing in numbers around the world, yet it is widely reported that many are failing to reach their objectives. They are frequently promoted as opportunities for win-win outcomes that can both protect biodiversity and lead to economic benefits for affected communities. This win-win view characterizes the dominant discourse surrounding many protected areas. Although this discourse and the arguments derived from it may lead to initial acceptance of conservation interventions, this study shows how it does not necessarily result in compliance and positive attitudes toward specific protected areas. Consequently, the discourse has important implications not just for making the case for protected area implementation, but also for the likelihood of protected areas reaching their objectives. We explain how the win-win discourse influences support for marine protected areas (MPAs) and, ultimately, their success. Using data from focus groups, questionnaires, and in-depth interviews at three MPA sites in the Philippines, we identified three reasons why the win-win discourse can negatively influence prolonged support for MPAs: dashed expectations, inequity, and temptation. Through an understanding of these issues, it becomes possible to suggest improvements that can be made pre-MPA implementation that can lead to prolonged support of MPAs. A focus on less tangible and economic MPA benefits, aligning MPA goals with cultural and social values, and higher levels of transparency when describing MPA outcomes are all ways in which prolonged support of MPAs can be bolstered.

%B Ecology and Society %I RESILIENCE ALLIANCE %V 21 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010484/1 %2 ne-k010484-1 %3 2 %4 Kenya; Mozambique %# 000373935100028 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/ES-08204-210136 %M 1708-3087 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Earth Sciences %D 2016 %T Characterizing the 2D shape complexity dynamics of the islands of Sundarbans, Bangladesh: a fractal dimension approach %A Hazra, Sugata %A Mukhopadhyay, Anirban %A Chanda, Abhra %A Mondal, Parimal %A Ghosh, Tuhin %A Mukherjee, Sandip %A Salehin, Mashfiqus %X

Fractal dimension index (FDI) and shape index (SI) of the islands of Bangladesh Sundarbans situated at the estuarine part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta were estimated with the aid of remote sensing techniques between the years 1989 and 2010. The main objective was to correlate the temporal change in these two indices within two decades with the possible geomorphic processes regulating these patterns. The Sundarban region is composed of almost 200 islands having self-similar coastlines with FDI and SI ranged from 1.002 to 1.202 and 1.016 to 7.546, respectively. Both FDI and SI values along with their temporal change showed that the complexity and irregularity in the island shape increased in the northern and north-eastern parts of the Sundarbans, while in the southern end it exhibited an opposite trend. Apart from a few exceptions, the longer serrated coastlines of the north (FDI > 1.18) became more serrated and rough due to the predominant tidal effect (particularly ebb tidal flow) within the two decades. The comparatively smoother coastlines of the southern islands (FDI < 1.18) became more compact and circular due to strong sea wave action during the same course of time. The spatial variation in FDI was explained in terms of the relative elevation of the islands, which was found to be lower in the northern part, their differential response to rising sea level and the amplified tidal action in this funnel shaped estuary. Apart from changes in fractal dimension, a net land loss of approximate to 60 km(2) was observed within this island system during the study period. These observations imply that with an increasing sea level rise, the northern and southern parts of Sundarbans Island system will respond differentially, resulting in inundation in northern area (water encroachment in the low-lying islands) and land loss in the southern part (erosion in the coastal boundary) causing a severe loss of ecosystem services provided by the mangrove forest.

%B Environmental Earth Sciences %I SPRINGER %V 75 %G eng %N 20 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000386578200030 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s12665-016-6175-3 %M 1866-6280 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %D 2016 %T Charcoal production in the Mopane woodlands of Mozambique: what are the trade-offs with other ecosystem services? %A E. Woolen %A C.M. Ryan %A S. Baumert %A F. Vollmer %A I. Grundy %A J. Fisher %A J. Fernando %A A. Luz %A N. Ribeiro %A S.N. Lisboa %X

African woodlands form a major part of the tropical grassy biome and support the livelihoods of millions of rural and urban people. Charcoal production in particular is a major economic activity, but its impact on other ecosystem services is little studied. To address this, our study collected biophysical and social datasets, which were combined in ecological production functions, to assess ecosystem service provision and its change under different charcoal production scenarios in Gaza Province, southern Mozambique. We found that villages with longer histories of charcoal production had experienced declines in wood suitable for charcoal, firewood and construction, and tended to have lower perceived availabilities of these services. Scenarios of future charcoal impacts indicated that firewood and woody construction services were likely to trade-off with charcoal production. However, even under the most extreme charcoal scenario, these services were not completely lost. Other provisioning services, such as wild food, medicinal plants and grass, were largely unaffected by charcoal production. To reduce the future impacts of charcoal production, producers must avoid increased intensification of charcoal extraction by avoiding the expansion of species and sizes of trees used for charcoal production. This is a major challenge to land managers and policymakers in the area.

%B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %V 371 %G eng %K http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/1703/20150315.long %1 NE/K010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2015.0315 %0 Journal Article %J Energy For Sustainable Development %D 2016 %T Charcoal supply chains from Mabalane to Maputo: who benefits? %A Baumert, Sophia %A Luz, Ana Catarina %A Fisher, Janet %A Vollmer, Frank %A Ryan, Casey M. %A Patenaude, Genevieve %A Zorrilla-Miras, Pedro %A Artur, Luis %A Nhantumbo, Isilda %A Macqueen, Duncan %X In urban centres of Mozambique, charcoal is the major energy source for cooking. Growing demand drives high wood extraction rates over increasing areas of miombo and mopane woodlands. Charcoal production can lead to changes in ecosystem service provision and woodland degradation while also significantly contributing to rural income and, possibly, poverty alleviation. As such, understanding charcoal production and trade has important implications for rural areas and for the sustainable development of woodland resources. Here, we investigate charcoal production and trade through empirical research conducted in Gaza Province, the main charcoal supply area for Maputo, Mozambique. We analyse the present structure of the main charcoal supply chains from Gaza province to Maputo and the profit distribution along them. Seven villages in the Mabalane district, Gaza, at different stages of engagement with the charcoal industry, were selected for investigation. We conducted household surveys and semi-structured interviews with key informants (village leaders, charcoal producers, licence holders, wholesalers, transporters and forest technicians), from May to October 2014. Our results highlight two main charcoal supply chains comprising four main actor groups a) Local small-scale operators producing charcoal on a small-scale with household labour, who sell to wholesalers b) Large-scale operators producing and commercialising large volumes of charcoal using migrant labour, who sell their own production to wholesalers. While charcoal production constitutes an important income source for rural households in Mabalane, under supply chain a) more than 90% of the monetary benefits do not reach local communities and remain with external agents. Two of the main factors impeding the generation of greater revenues at community level are: 1) bureaucratic burdens in obtaining charcoal commercialisation rights in the form of licences; and 2) weak institutional capacities for woodland resource governance. We conclude that access to markets and control over woodlands is key if local communities are to generate greater benefits from charcoal production while aiming at sustainable charcoal production. Strong local institutions for obtaining commercialisation rights and managing woodland resources have to be developed, while the restructuring of the licencing system in favour of small-scale producers and more rigorous control of the regulations could support this process. %B Energy For Sustainable Development %I ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV %V 33 %P 129-138 %G eng %N 6 %1 ne/k010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %3 6 %4 Mozambique %# 000381696600012 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.esd.2016.06.003 %M 0973-0826 %0 Report %D 2016 %T Charcoal supply chains from Mabalane to Maputo: who benefits? %A Sophia Baumert %A Isilda Nhantumbo %X

Charcoal is the main cooking energy source for people living in Maputo city. It is also a crucial source of income for rural producers in Mabalane district, a key supplier of Maputo’s charcoal. But Mabalane’s forests — which provide the wood for charcoal — also supply rural populations with construction materials, firewood and food. Our research shows that the lack of community management in Mabalane’s charcoal trade has disadvantaged communities, widening income inequality and causing ecological depletion. To reverse these trends, we recommend that policymakers strengthen community management institutions, install sustainable management practices, review existing licensing schemes and seek affordable alternative energy sources. This will help ensure the charcoal trade operates in an inclusive and sustainable way.

%8 03/2016 %G eng %K https://miomboaces.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/briefing-paper-march-2016-english.pdf %1 NE/K010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2016 %T A combination of methods needed to assess the actual use of provisioning ecosystem services %A Rasmussen, Laura Vang %A Mertz, Ole %A Christensen, Andreas E. %A Danielsen, Finn %A Dawson, Neil %A Xaydongvanh, Pheang %X

Failure to recognize that potential provisioning ecosystem services are not necessarily collected and used by people may have important consequences for management of land and resources. Accounting for people's actual use of ecosystem services in decision making processes requires a robust methodological approach that goes beyond mapping the presence of ecosystem services. But no such universally accepted method exists; there are several shortcomings of existing methods such as the application of land use/cover as a proxy for provisioning ecosystem service availability, and surveys based on respondents' recall to assess people's collection of e.g. wild food. By combining four complementary methods and applying these to the shifting cultivation systems of Laos, we show how people’s actual use of ecosystem services from agricultural fields differs from ecosystem service availability. Our study is the first in Southeast Asia to combine plot monitoring, collection diaries, repeat interviews, and participant observation. By applying these multiple methods borrowed from anthropology and botany among other research domains, the study illustrates that no single method is sufficient on its own. It is of key importance for scientists to adopt methods that can account for both availability of various services and actual use of those services.

%B Ecosystem Services %V 17 %P 75-86 %G eng %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %3 3 %4 Lao PDR %# 000370641300011 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.11.005 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2016 %T A comparative analysis of ecosystem services valuation approaches for application at the local scale and in data scarce regions %A Pandeya, B %A Buytaert, W %A Zulkafli, Z %A Karpouzoglou, T %A Mao, F %A Hannah, D %X

Despite significant advances in the development of the ecosystem services concept across the science and policy arenas, the valuation of ecosystem services to guide sustainable development remains challenging, especially at a local scale and in data scarce regions. In this paper, we review and compare major past and current valuation approaches and discuss their key strengths and weaknesses for guiding policy decisions. To deal with the complexity of methods used in different valuation approaches, our review uses multiple entry points: data vs simulation, habitat vs system vs place-based, specific vs entire portfolio, local vs regional scale, and monetary vs non-monetary. We find that although most valuation approaches are useful to explain ecosystem services at a macro/system level, an application of locally relevant valuation approaches, which allows for a more integrated valuation relevant to decision making is still hindered by data-scarcity. The advent of spatially explicit policy support systems shows particular promise to make the best use of available data and simulations. Data collection remains crucial for the local scale and in data scarce regions. Leveraging citizen science-based data and knowledge co-generation may support the integrated valuation, while at the same time making the valuation process more inclusive, replicable and policy-oriented.

%B Ecosystem Services %V 22 %P 250-259 %G eng %1 fell-2014-105 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 3 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000401544900005 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.10.015 %0 Journal Article %J Malaria Journal %D 2016 %T A comparison of malaria prevalence, control and management strategies in irrigated and non-irrigated areas in eastern Kenya %A Muriuki, John Muthii %A Kitala, Philip %A Muchemi, Gerald %A Njeru, Ian %A Karanja, Joan %A Bett, Bernard %X

Background: This study was conducted in Bura irrigation scheme in Tana River County and the pastoral area in Ijara, Garissa County in the eastern Kenya to establish the knowledge, attitude and practices on malaria transmission, control and management, and determine malaria prevalence and the associated risk factors.

%B Malaria Journal %I BIOMED CENTRAL LTD %V 15 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000381357700001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1186/s12936-016-1458-4 %M 1475-2875 %0 Journal Article %J Hydrology And Earth System Sciences Discussions %D 2016 %T A conceptual framework for assessing socio-hydrological resilience under change %A Mao, Feng %A Clark, Julian %A Karpouzoglou, Timothy %A Dewulf, Art %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Hannah, David %X

Despite growing interest in resilience, there is still significant scope for increasing its conceptual clarity and practical relevance in socio-hydrological contexts. Specifically, questions of how socio-hydrological systems respond to and cope with perturbations and how these connect to resilience remain unanswered. In this paper, we propose a novel conceptual framework for understanding and assessing resilience in coupled socio-hydrological systems. Taking a systems perspective, we argue resilience is a set of systematic properties with three dimensions: absorptive, adaptive and transformative, and contend that socio-hydrological systems can be viewed as various forms of human-water couplings, reflecting different aspects of these interactions. We propose a framework consisting of two parts. The first part addresses the identity of socio-hydrological resilience, answering questions such as ‘resilience of what in relation to what’. We identify three framings of resilience for different types of human-water systems and subsystems: (1) the water subsystem, highlighting hydrological resilience to anthropogenic hazards; (2) the human subsystem, foregrounding social resilience to hydrological hazards; and (3) the coupled human-water system, exhibiting socio-hydrological resilience. We argue that these three system types and resiliences afford new insights into the evaluation of different water management challenges. The first two types address hydrological and social states, while the third type emphasises the feedbacks and interactions between human and water components within complex systems subject to internal or external disturbances. In the second part, we focus on resilience management and develop the notion of the ‘resilience canvas’, a novel heuristic device to identify possible pathways and to facilitate the design of bespoke strategies for enhancing resilience in the socio-hydrological context. The ‘resilience canvas’ is constructed by combining absorptive and adaptive capacities as two axes. At the corners of the resulting two-dimensional space are four quadrants which we conceptualise as representing resilient, vulnerable, susceptible, and resistant system states. To address projected change-induced uncertainties, we recommend effort is now focused on shifting socio-hydrological systems from resistant towards resilient status. In sum, the novel framework proposed here clarifies the ambiguity inherent in socio-hydrological resilience, and provides a viable basis for further theoretical and practical development.

%B Hydrology And Earth System Sciences Discussions %P 1-26 %G eng %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5194/hess-2016-499 %0 Journal Article %J Landscape And Urban Planning %D 2016 %T Coping with the wicked problem of climate adaptation across scales: The five R governance capabilities %A Termeer, C. J. A. M. %A Dewulf, A. %A Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S. I. %A Vink, M. %A van Vliet, M. %X

Adapting social-ecological systems to the projected effects of climate change is not only a complex technical matter but above all a demanding governance issue. As climate change has all the characteristics of a wicked problem, conventional strategies of governance do not seem to work. However, most conventional governance institutions are poorly equipped to enable, or at least tolerate, innovative strategies. This paper analyses the various strategies used to cope with the wicked problem of climate adaptation across scales, and the institutional conditions that enable or constrain such strategies. For this, it relies on a theoretical framework consisting of five governance capabilities that are considered crucial for coping with wicked problems: reflexivity, resilience, responsiveness, revitalization and rescaling. This framework is used to analyse the governance of adaptation to climate change at three different levels: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its activities to assist adaptation; the European Union and its climate adaptation strategy; and the Netherlands and its Delta Program. The results show that conventional governance strategies are rather absent and that mixtures of reflexive, resilient, responsive, revitalizing and rescaling strategies were visible at all levels, although not equally well developed and important. In contrast to the literature, we found many examples of enabling institutional conditions. The constraining conditions, which were also present, tend to lead more to postponement than to obstruction of decision-making processes. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

%B Landscape And Urban Planning %I ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV %V 154 %P 11-19 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 4 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000383823600004 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.01.007 %M 0169-2046 %0 Journal Article %J Mountain Research And Development %D 2016 %T Decentralizing governance of agropastoral systems in Kyrgyzstan: An assessment of recent pasture reforms %A Shigaeva, Jyldyz %A Hagerman, Shannon %A Zerriffi, Hisham %A Hergarten, Christian %A Isaeva, Aiganysh %A Mamadalieva, Zuura %A Foggin, Marc %X

Agropastoral systems in Kyrgyzstan have undergone dramatic change in recent decades. In large part, change has resulted from the introduction of legislation that devolves authority and responsibility for the management of common-pool agropastoral resources to community-level pasture users associations. By applying Ostrom's principles of common resource governance, this paper analyzes the institutions and norms that currently shape local management practices in rural areas of Naryn Province in Kyrgyzstan and the views of different actors on pasture governance, including points of disagreement. Our research and analysis reveal that the community-initiated and-owned systems of pasture governance that were expected to develop and mature under the new Pasture Law have not yet been entirely realized. Decentralization occurred without the participation or awareness of most local resource users. As a consequence, users are creating and reinforcing their own community-defined practices and internal rules, leaving official management plans largely ignored and unenforced. Resource users tend to perceive the government-sanctioned pasture users associations not as public or democratic organizations that represent their interests, but rather as agencies that aim primarily to control the use of resources, exclude some people from decision-making, or impose taxation. Sustainable management of pasturelands therefore may best be served when community perspectives are more suitably integrated-from the planning phase through to collaborative governance and implementation of locally agreed upon management options.

%B Mountain Research And Development %I MOUNTAIN RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT %V 36 %P 91-101 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 4 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000377707300009 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-15-00023.1 %M 0276-4741 %0 Journal Article %J Southern Forests: a Journal of Forest Science %D 2016 %T Deforestation since independence: a quantitative assessment of four decades of land-cover change in Malawi %A Tsirinzeni, Mathews %A Hudson, Malcolm D. %A Parks, Kate E. %A Bone, Rachel A. %A Willcock, Simon %X Land cover has changed rapidly across the tropics over the past century; however, detailed historical information describing the extent and possible drivers of such change is widely lacking. Here, we constructed a history of land-cover change at the district level in Malawi over a 37-year period from 1972 to 2009, the immediate post-colonial phase. Overall, there was a loss of 12 760 km2 (36%) of original forested area but also 11 161 km2 of new forest establishment, resulting in a relatively modest overall net loss of 1 599 km2 (5%). We correlated changes in deforestation and forest establishment with changes in socio-economic variables derived from spatially explicit data from the same time period. Deforestation was positively correlated with (in order of influence) changes in male school attendance, sex ratio, population density, hospital bed numbers, protected areas and dependency rate, but negatively correlated with changes in cattle density; forest establishment broadly showed the inverse relationships with the same variables. Although direct drivers of deforestation are well known for Malawi and much of Africa, the significance of socio-economic variables within this study can help to understand the underlying social pressures behind such drivers. In particular, development, population pressure and demographic factors are important predictors of deforestation rate within our study area. %B Southern Forests: a Journal of Forest Science %V 79 %P 269-275 %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000418710900001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.2989/20702620.2016.1233777 %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2016 %T Detecting climate adaptation with mobile network data in Bangladesh: anomalies in communication, mobility and consumption patterns during Cyclone Mahasen %A Xin, L %A Wrathall, D %A Sundsoy, P R %A Nadiruzzaman, Md %A Wetter, E %A Iqbal, A %A Qureshi, T %A Tatem, A %A Canright, G %A Engo-Monsen, K %A Bengtsson, L %X

Large-scale data from digital infrastructure, like mobile phone networks, provides rich information on the behavior of millions of people in areas affected by climate stress. Using anonymized data on mobility and calling behavior from 5.1 million Grameenphone users in Barisal Division and Chittagong District, Bangladesh, we investigate the effect of Cyclone Mahasen, which struck Barisal and Chittagong in May 2013. We characterize spatiotemporal patterns and anomalies in calling frequency, mobile recharges, and population movements before, during and after the cyclone.

%B Climatic Change %V 138 %P 505-519 %G eng %1 fell-2014-106 %2 fell-2014-106 %3 1 %4 Bangladesh %# 000383615200011 %6 ESPA Fellowships %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s10584-016-1753-7 %0 Journal Article %J Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability %D 2016 %T Does information on landscape benefits influence collective action in landscape governance? %A Opdam, Paul %A Coninx, Ingrid %A Dewulf, Art %A Steingrover, Eveliene %A Vos, Claire %A van der Wal, Merel %X

There is general understanding that collaboration is a key element in the governance for a sustainable environment. In this context knowledge utilization has become a popular research topic. However, the role of information content in enhancing collaboration has been rarely addressed. We consider two types of information on mutual dependencies between actors that result from ecological interdependencies in the landscape: information on landscape sites providing multiple benefits to a range of stakeholders, and information on how these benefits depend on coordinated landscape-level management. Our survey of recent literature indicates that although there is a sound theoretical basis for the assumption that such information would enhance collaboration, the issue has been the subject of little empirical research thus far. We found some supporting studies demonstrating social network building and collective action, but none of them separated the effect of the information content from the effect of the organized social learning process. To increase understanding of the potential for informational governance of landscapes resources, we argue there is a need to integrate recent advances in the analysis of social network building in environmental management with emerging insights in knowledge utilization and spatial interdependencies of landscape benefits.

%B Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability %I ELSEVIER SCI LTD %V 18 %P 107-114 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 3 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000373540900015 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.cosust.2015.12.006 %M 1877-3435 %0 Journal Article %J EcoHealth %D 2016 %T Ecological monitoring and health research in Luambe National Park, Zambia: Generation of baseline data layers %A Anderson, Neil E. %A Bessell, Paul R. %A Mubanga, Joseph %A Thomas, Robert %A Eisler, Mark C. %A Fevre, Eric M. %A Welburn, Susan C. %X

Classifying, describing and understanding the natural environment is an important element of studies of human, animal and ecosystem health, and baseline ecological data are commonly lacking in remote environments of the world. Human African trypanosomiasis is an important constraint on human well-being in sub-Saharan Africa, and spillover transmission occurs from the reservoir community of wild mammals. Here we use robust and repeatable methodology to generate baseline datasets on vegetation and mammal density to investigate the ecology of warthogs (Phacochoerus africanus) in the remote Luambe National Park in Zambia, in order to further our understanding of their interactions with tsetse (Glossina spp.) vectors of trypanosomiasis. Fuzzy set theory is used to produce an accurate landcover classification, and distance sampling techniques are applied to obtain species and habitat level density estimates for the most abundant wild mammals. The density of warthog burrows is also estimated and thr spatial distribution mapped. The datasets generated provide an accurate baseline to further ecological and epidemiological understanding of disease systems such as trypanosomiasis. This study provides a reliable framework for ecological monitoring of wild mammal densities and vegetation composition in remote, relatively inaccessible environments.

%B EcoHealth %I SPRINGER %V 13 %P 511-524 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000386363400010 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s10393-016-1131-y %M 1612-9202 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %D 2016 %T Ecosystem services from southern African woodlands and their future under global change %A C.M. Ryan %A R. Pritchard %A I. McNicol %A M. Owen %A J.A.Fisher %A C. Lehmann %X

Miombo and mopane woodlands are the dominant land cover in southern Africa. Ecosystem services from these woodlands support the livelihoods of 100 M rural people and 50 M urban dwellers, and others beyond the region. Provisioning services contribute $9+2 billion yr21 to rural livelihoods; 76% of energy used in the region is derived from woodlands; and traded woodfuels have an annual value of $780 M. Woodlands support much of the region’s agriculture through transfers of nutrients to fields and shifting cultivation. Woodlands store 18–24 PgC carbon, and harbour a unique and diverse flora and fauna that provides spiritual succour and attracts tourists. Longstanding processes that will impact service provision are the expansion of croplands (0.1 M km2 ; 2000–2014), harvesting of woodfuels (93 M tonnes yr21 ) and changing access arrangements. Novel, exogenous changes include large-scale land acquisitions (0.07 M km2 ; 2000–2015), climate change and rising CO2. The net ecological response to these changes is poorly constrained, as they act in different directions, and differentially on trees and grasses, leading to uncertainty in future service provision. Land-use change and socio-political dynamics are likely to be dominant forces of change in the short term, but important land-use dynamics remain unquantified.

%B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences %V 371 %8 09/2016 %G eng %K https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4978870/pdf/rstb20150312.pdf %1 NE/K010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2015.0312 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2016 %T Elasticity in ecosystem services: exploring the variable relationship between ecosystems and human well-being %A Daw, Tim M. %A Hicks, Christina C. %A Brown, Katrina %A Chaigneau, Tomas %A Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A. %A Cheung, William W. L. %A Rosendo, Sergio %A Crona, Beatrice %A Coulthard, Sarah %A Sandbrook, Chris %A Perry, Chris %A Bandeira, Salomao %A Muthiga, Nyawira A. %A Schulte-Herbruggen, Bjorn %A Bosire, Jared %A McClanahan, Tim R. %X

Although ecosystem services are increasingly recognized as benefits people obtain from nature, we still have a poor understanding of how they actually enhance multidimensional human well-being, and how well-being is affected by ecosystem change. We develop a concept of "ecosystem service elasticity" (ES elasticity) that describes the sensitivity of human well-being to changes in ecosystems. ES Elasticity is a result of complex social and ecological dynamics and is context dependent, individually variable, and likely to demonstrate nonlinear dynamics such as thresholds and hysteresis. We present a conceptual framework that unpacks the chain of causality from ecosystem stocks through flows, goods, value, and shares to contribute to the well-being of different people. This framework builds on previous conceptualizations, but places multidimensional well-being of different people as the final element. This ultimately disaggregated approach emphasizes how different people access benefits and how benefits match their needs or aspirations.

%B Ecology and Society %I RESILIENCE ALLIANCE %V 21 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010484/1 %2 ne-k010484-1 %3 6 %4 Kenya; Mozambique %# 000380049100005 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/ES-08173-210211 %M 1708-3087 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Modelling & Software %D 2016 %T Environmental data visualisation for non-scientific contexts: Literature review and design framework %A Grainger, Sam %A Mao, Feng %A Buytaert, Wouter %X

Environmental science is an applied discipline, which therefore requires interacting with actors outside of the scientific community. Visualisations are increasingly seen as powerful tools to engage users with unfamiliar and complex subject matter. Despite recent research advances, scientists are yet to fully harness the potential of visualisation when interacting with non-scientists. To address this issue, we review the main principles of visualisation, discuss specific graphical challenges for environmental science and highlight some best practice from non-professional contexts. We provide a design framework to enhance the communication and application of scientific information within professional contexts. These guidelines can help scientists incorporate effective visualisations within improved dissemination and knowledge exchange platforms. We conclude that the uptake of science within environmental decision-making requires a highly iterative and collaborative design approach towards the development of tailored visualisations. This enables users to not only generate actionable understanding but also explore information on their own terms. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

%B Environmental Modelling & Software %I ELSEVIER SCI LTD %V 85 %P 299-318 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000385595800022 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.004 %M 1364-8152 %0 Journal Article %J Methods in Ecology and Evolution %D 2016 %T Environmental-mechanistic modelling of the impact of global change on human zoonotic disease emergence: a case study of Lassa fever %A Redding, David W %A Moses, Lina M %A Cunningham, Andrew A %A Wood, James %A Jones, Kate E %X

Summary

1. Human infectious diseases are a significant threat to global human health and economies (e.g. Ebola, SARs), with the majority of infectious diseases having an animal source (zoonotic). Despite their importance, the lack of a quantitative predictive framework hampers our understanding of how spillovers of zoonotic infectious diseases into the human population will be impacted by global environmental stressors.

2. Here, we create an environmental-mechanistic model for understanding the impact of global change on the probability of zoonotic disease reservoir host–human spillover events. As a case study, we focus on Lassa fever virus (LAS). We first quantify the spatial determinants of LAS outbreaks, including the phylogeographic distribution of its reservoir host Natal multimammate rat (Mastomys natalensis) (LAS host). Secondly, we use these determinants to inform our environmental-mechanistic model to estimate present-day LAS spillover events and the predicted impact of climate change, human population growth and land use by 2070.

3. We find phylogeographic evidence to suggest that LAS is confined to only one clade of LAS host (Western clade Mastomys natalensis) and that the probability of its occurrence was a major determinant of the spatial variation in LAS historical outbreaks (69.8%), along with human population density (20.4%). Our estimates for present day LAS spillover events from our environmental-mechanistic model were consistent with observed patterns, and we predict an increase in events per year by 2070 from 195 125 to 406 725 within the LAS endemic western African region. Of the component drivers, climate change and human population growth are predicted to have the largest effects by increasing landscape suitability for the host and human–host contact rates, while land-use change has only a weak impact on the number of future events.

4. LAS spillover events did not respond uniformly to global environmental stressors, and we suggest that understanding the impact of global change on zoonotic infectious disease emergence requires an understanding of how reservoir host species respond to environmental change. Our environmental-mechanistic modelling methodology provides a novel generalizable framework to understand the impact of global change on the spillover of zoonotic diseases.

%B Methods in Ecology and Evolution %V 7 %P 646 - 655 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 5 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000378731900003 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %+ Yes %R 10.1111/2041-210X.12549 %0 Journal Article %J Climate and Development %D 2016 %T Examining changes in local adaptive capacity resulting from climate change adaptation programming in rural Kyrgyzstan %A Ashley, L %A Zhumanova, M %A Isaeva, A %A Dear, C %X

The Mountain Societies Development Support Programme, a non-governmental organization, designed and facilitated a climate change adaptation programme to build local adaptive capacity (LAC) among agro-pastoral villages in remote mountain areas of Kyrgyzstan. This research evaluated the programme using the LAC framework of Jones et al. [2010. Towards a characterisation of adaptive capacity: A framework for analysing adaptive capacity at the local level. Background Note. Overseas Development Institute.] Research found the programme contributed to increased adaptive capacity related to the asset base, knowledge and information, and flexible forward-looking decision-making. There were less apparent changes in the characteristics of institutions and entitlements and innovation.

%B Climate and Development %V 8 %G eng %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000375000700009 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/17565529.2015.1034230 %0 Journal Article %J Plos One %D 2016 %T An exploration of human well-being bundles as identifiers of ecosystem service use patterns %A Hamann, Maike %A Biggs, Reinette %A Reyers, Belinda %X We take a social-ecological systems perspective to investigate the linkages between ecosystem services and human well-being in South Africa. A recent paper identified different types of social-ecological systems in the country, based on distinct bundles of ecosystem service use. These system types were found to represent increasingly weak direct feedbacks between nature and people, from rural “green-loop” communities to urban “red-loop” societies. Here we construct human well-being bundles and explore whether the well-being bundles can be used to identify the same social-ecological system types that were identified using bundles of ecosystem service use. Based on national census data, we found three distinct well-being bundle types that are mainly characterized by differences in income, unemployment and property ownership. The distribution of these well-being bundles approximates the distribution of ecosystem service use bundles to a substantial degree: High levels of income and education generally coincided with areas characterised by low levels of direct ecosystem service use (or red-loop systems), while the majority of low well-being areas coincided with medium and high levels of direct ecosystem service use (or transition and green-loop systems). However, our results indicate that transformations from green-loop to red-loop systems do not always entail an immediate improvement in well-being, which we suggest may be due to a time lag between changes in the different system components. Using human well-being bundles as an indicator of social-ecological dynamics may be useful in other contexts since it is based on socio-economic data commonly collected by governments, and provides important insights into the connections between ecosystem services and human well-being at policy-relevant sub-national scales. %B Plos One %V 11 %P e0163476 %G eng %1 ne/l001322/1 %2 ne-l001322-1 %3 4 %4 Benin; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Equatorial Guinea; Ethiopia; Ghana; Kenya; Malawi; Namibia; Nigeria; Sierra Leone; South Africa; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000385553100034 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0163476 %M 1932-6203 %0 Journal Article %J Conservation & Society %D 2016 %T Failure by design? Revisiting Tanzania's flagship Wildlife Management Area Burunge %A Moyo, Francis %A Ijumba, Jasper %A Lund, Jens Friis %X

In this paper, we revisit the on-the-ground reality of Burunge Wildlife Management Area (WMA) that is celebrated as one of Tanzania's best examples of community-based conservation (CBC). We find Burunge WMA rife with conflict and contestation over grievances that remained unsettled since its establishment a decade ago. These grievances have been accentuated by growing land pressure resulting from increasing human, livestock, and elephant populations, in combination with infrastructure improvements and support for agriculture-led development. The WMA governance regime has little to offer the residents and village leaders of Burunge member villages who appear hostages in a situation where interests in human development and conservation are pitted against each other, making a mockery of the notions of CBC. By re-examining this exemplary WMA case and compare our findings with the way it is being portrayed by supporting agencies, we pinpoint the tendency of the actors promoting conservation in Tanzania to misrepresent or ignore the realities on the ground that defy official policy promises. In doing this, we hope to call upon the many empathetic and hard-working individuals to end the collective failure to address this detrimental discrepancy between reality and representation, and start supporting affected residents in their struggles for self-determination.

%B Conservation & Society %V 14 %P 232-242 %G eng %1 ne/l00139x/1 %2 ne-l00139x-1 %3 3 %4 Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000385931200006 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.4103/0972-4923.191160 %0 Working Publication %D 2016 %T Field manual for participatory data collection on biophysical stock of ecosystem services %A S Wilcock %A S L Dobbie %A E L Green %A Amy Nicholass %A Sophie vanEetvelt %A O. J. Wagstaff %A Jessica A. N. Weyell %A Kate Schreckenberg %A Malcolm D. Hudson %A Felix Eigenbrod %A G M Poppy %X

If ecosystem services are to be managed to help alleviate poverty, then ecosystem service research must act to fill knowledge gaps and address data deficiencies. This manual presents a series of data-collection tools utilising indigenous knowledge to provide biophysical data via Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs). Systematically recording this knowledge can help to rapidly and cheaply fill data gaps, whilst also ensuring that local people are included as stakeholders in decision-making. This manual was developed drawing on the experiences of the ESPA-funded ASSETS project, investigating the links between ecosystem services, food security and nutritional status at the forest-agriculture interface. By applying the methods presented here, users will (in collaboration with local communities) be able to obtain information on ecosystem services including provisioning (e.g. timber, food), regulating (e.g. carbon storage, pollination) and cultural (e.g. recreation, education) services. The methods presented here should be of interest to researchers and practitioners seeking to create an evidence base to support ecosystem services-based decision-making in data deficient areas.

%0 Journal Article %J Ambio %D 2016 %T From food to pest: Conversion factors determine switches between ecosystem services and disservices %A Vang Rasmussen, Laura %A Christensen, Andreas E. %A Danielsen, Finn %A Dawson, Neil %A Martin, Adrian %A Mertz, Ole %A Sikor, Thomas %A Thongmanivong, Sithong %A Xaydongvanh, Pheang %X

Ecosystem research focuses on goods and services, thereby ascribing beneficial values to the ecosystems. Depending on the context, however, outputs from ecosystems can be both positive and negative. We examined how provisioning services of wild animals and plants can switch between being services and disservices. We studied agricultural communities in Laos to illustrate when and why these switches take place. Government restrictions on land use combined with economic and cultural changes have created perceptions of rodents and plants as problem species in some communities. In other communities that are maintaining shifting cultivation practices, the very same taxa were perceived as beneficial. We propose conversion factors that in a given context can determine where an individual taxon is located along a spectrum from ecosystem service to disservice, when, and for whom. We argue that the omission of disservices in ecosystem service accounts may lead governments to direct investments at inappropriate targets.

%B Ambio %P 1-11 %G eng %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %4 Lao PDR %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s13280-016-0813-6 %0 Journal Article %J Global Change Biology %D 2016 %T From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots %A Popova, Ekaterina %A Yool, Andrew %A Byfield, Valborg %A Cochrane, Kevern %A Coward, Andrew C. %A Salim, Shyam S. %A Gasalla, Maria A. %A Henson, Stephanie A. %A Hobday, Alistair J. %A Pecl, Gretta T. %A Sauer, Warwick H. %A Roberts, Michael J. %X Ocean warming ‘hotspots’ are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO 2-driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas. %B Global Change Biology %I WILEY-BLACKWELL %V 22 %P 2038-2053 %G eng %N 6 %1 ne/m007545/1 %2 ne-m007545-1 %3 11 %4 Madagascar %# 000378721700005 %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/gcb.13247 %M 1354-1013 %0 Journal Article %J PLos One %D 2016 %T Gender differentiated preferences for a community-based conservation initiative %A Keane, A. %A Gurd, H. %A Kaelo, D. %A Said, MY. %A De Leeuw, J. %A Rowcliffe, JM. %A Homewood, K. %X

Community-based conservation (CBC) aims to benefit local people as well as to achieve conservation goals, but has been criticised for taking a simplistic view of "community" and failing to recognise differences in the preferences and motivations of community members. We explore this heterogeneity in the context of Kenya's conservancies, focussing on the livelihood preferences of men and women living adjacent to the Maasai Mara National Reserve. Using a discrete choice experiment we quantify the preferences of local community members for key components of their livelihoods and conservancy design, differentiating between men and women and existing conservancy members and non-members. While Maasai preference for pastoralism remains strong, non-livestock-based livelihood activities are also highly valued and there was substantial differentiation in preferences between individuals. Involvement with conservancies was generally perceived to be positive, but only if households were able to retain some land for other purposes. Women placed greater value on conservancy membership, but substantially less value on wage income, while existing conservancy members valued both conservancy membership and livestock more highly than did non-members. Our findings suggest that conservancies can make a positive contribution to livelihoods, but care must be taken to ensure that they do not unintentionally disadvantage any groups. We argue that conservation should pay greater attention to individual-level differences in preferences when designing interventions in order to achieve fairer and more sustainable outcomes for members of local communities.

%B PLos One %G eng %1 ne/i003673/1 %2 ne-i003673-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kenya; Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000373113900057 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0152432 %M 19326203 %0 Journal Article %J World Development %D 2016 %T Green revolution in sub-Saharan Africa: Implications of imposed innovation for the wellbeing of rural smallholders %A Dawson, Neil %A Martin, Adrian %A Sikor, Thomas %X

Green Revolution policies are again being pursued to drive agricultural growth and reduce poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. However conditions have changed since the well-documented successes of the 1960s and 1970s benefitted smallholders in southern Asia and beyond. We argue that under contemporary constraints the mechanisms for achieving improvements in the lives of smallholder farmers through such policies are unclear and that both policy rationale and means of governing agricultural innovation are crucial for pro-poor impacts. To critically analyze Rwanda’s Green Revolution policies and impacts from a local perspective, a mixed methods, multidimensional wellbeing approach is applied in rural areas in mountainous western Rwanda. Here Malthusian policy framing has been used to justify imposed rather than ‘‘induced innovation”. The policies involve a substantial transformation for rural farmers from a traditional polyculture system supporting subsistence and local trade to the adoption of modern seed varieties, inputs, and credit in order to specialize in marketable crops and achieve increased production and income. Although policies have been deemed successful in raising yields and conventionally measured poverty rates have fallen over the same period, such trends were found to be quite incongruous with local experiences. Disaggregated results reveal that only a relatively wealthy minority were able to adhere to the enforced modernization and policies appear to be exacerbating landlessness and inequality for poorer rural inhabitants. Negative impacts were evident for the majority of households as subsistence practices were disrupted, poverty exacerbated, local systems of knowledge, trade, and labor were impaired, and land tenure security and autonomy were curtailed. In order to mitigate the effects we recommend that inventive pro-poor forms of tenure and cooperation (none of which preclude improvements to input availability, market linkages, and infrastructure) may provide positive outcomes for rural people, and importantly in Rwanda, for those who have become landless in recent years. We conclude that policies promoting a Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa should not all be considered to be pro-poor or even to be of a similar type, but rather should be the subject of rigorous impact assessment. Such assessment should be based not only on consistent, objective indicators but pay attention to localized impacts on land tenure, agricultural practices, and the wellbeing of socially differentiated people.

%B World Development %V 78 %P 204-218 %G eng %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %3 5 %4 Lao PDR %# 000366769900015 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.008 %M 0305-750X %0 Book Section %D 2016 %T Health implications of climate change for dwellers of low-income settlements in Tanzania %A Roy, Manoj %E Cawood, Sally %E Hordijk, Michaela %E Hulme, David %X

This chapter provides an overview of how low-onset (e.g. temperature rise) and rapid weather events (e.g. floods and heavy rain) affect the spread of vector-borne (such as malaria, dengue) and water-borne (such as typhoid, cholera) diseases. In particular, it examines the nature of these impacts on the urban poor living in low-income settlements in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, addressing the glaring knowledge gap on health, climate change and urban poverty.

%I Routledge %@ 9781138860506 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/Urban-Poverty-and-Climate-Change-Life-in-the-slums-of-Asia-Africa-and/Roy-Cawood-Hordijk-Hulme/p/book/9781138860506 %1 ne/l001616/1 %2 ne-l001616-1 %4 Bangladesh; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Geophysical Research-atmospheres %D 2016 %T High-resolution satellite-gauge merged precipitation climatologies of the Tropical Andes %A Manz, Bastian %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Zulkafli, Zed %A Lavado, Waldo %A Willems, Bram %A Alberto Robles, Luis %A Rodriguez-Sanchez, Juan-Pablo %X

Satellite precipitation products are becoming increasingly useful to complement rain gauge networks in regions where these are too sparse to capture spatial precipitation patterns, such as in the Tropical Andes. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (TPR) was active for 17years (1998-2014) and has generated one of the longest single-sensor, high-resolution, and high-accuracy rainfall records. In this study, high-resolution (5km) gridded mean monthly climatological precipitation is derived from the raw orbital TPR data (TRMM 2A25) and merged with 723 rain gauges using multiple satellite-gauge (S-G) merging approaches. The resulting precipitation products are evaluated by cross validation and catchment water balances (runoff ratios) for 50 catchments across the Tropical Andes. Results show that the TPR captures major synoptic and seasonal precipitation patterns and also accurately defines orographic gradients but underestimates absolute monthly rainfall rates. The S-G merged products presented in this study constitute an improved source of climatological rainfall data, outperforming the gridded TPR product as well as a rain gauge-only product based on ordinary Kriging. Among the S-G merging methods, performance of inverse distance interpolation of satellite-gauge residuals was similar to that of geostatistical methods, which were more sensitive to gauge network density. High uncertainty and low performance of the merged precipitation products predominantly affected regions with low and intermittent precipitation regimes (e.g., Peruvian Pacific coast) and is likely linked to the low TPR sampling frequency. All S-G merged products presented in this study are available in the public domain.

%B Journal Of Geophysical Research-atmospheres %V 121 %P 1190-1207 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 4 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000371481700010 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/2015JD023788 %M 2169-897X %0 Journal Article %J Conservation Letters %D 2016 %T Impacts of community forest management on human economic well-being across Madagascar %A Rasolofoson, Ranaivo A. %A Ferraro, Paul J. %A Ruta, Giovanni %A Rasamorlina, Maminiaina S. %A Randriankolona, Patrick L. %A Larsen, Helle O. %A Jones, Julia P. G. %X

Community Forest Management (CFM) devolves forest management to local communities to achieve conservation and human well-being goals. Yet, the evidence for CFM’s impacts is mixed and difficult to interpret because of inadequate attention to rival explanations for the observed empirical patterns. In a national-scale analysis in Madagascar that carefully considers these rival explanations, we estimate CFM impacts on household living standards, as measured by per capita consumption expenditures. The estimated impact is positive, but small and not statistically different from zero. However, we can statistically reject substantial negative impacts (which others have suggested may exist). The estimated impacts vary conditional on household education and proximity to forests: they are more positive and statistically significant for households closer to forest and with more education. To help improve CFM design, scholars and practitioners should anticipate heterogeneity in CFM impacts and work to better characterize them, theoretically and empirically.

%B Conservation Letters %P 1-8 %G eng %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %4 Madagascar %# 000403565100009 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/conl.12272 %0 Journal Article %J Biomass and Bioenergy %D 2016 %T Impacts of land use change due to biofuel crops on climate regulation services: Five case studies in Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland %A Romeu-Dalmau, Carla %A Gasparatos, Alexandros %A von Maltitz, Graham %A Graham, Alastair %A Almagro-Garcia, Jacob %A Wilebore, Beccy %A Willis, Katherine %X

Understanding changes in carbon sequestration due to land conversion is key for elucidating the true potential of biofuel landscapes to provide climate regulation ecosystem services. In this study, we focus on the two most promoted biofuel crops in southern Africa, Jatropha and sugarcane, to analyse the land use change effects and associated carbon impacts of growing biofuel crops in five study sites in Mozambique, Malawi and Swaziland. We found that, considering a 20-year cycle, carbon stocks in aboveground biomass are higher for sugarcane than for Jatropha. However, as soil organic carbon (SOC) is generally the main carbon pool, total carbon stocks (considering biomass and soil) will highly depend on SOC. Our results show that, in our study sites, sugarcane replaced land uses with low carbon stocks (low-density forest and agriculture), and as a result carbon gains occurred due to land use change. In the Jatropha projects, carbon gains are observed in the smallholder scheme as agricultural land was converted to Jatropha, but carbon debts occurred in the Jatropha plantation as high-density forest was cleared to grow this feedstock. Finally we show that, if a plantation of sugarcane or Jatropha is envisioned to be located in the studied regions, more forested land could potentially be converted into sugarcane (30-44% of forest) than into Jatropha (24-32%), without creating carbon debts due to land conversion. To our knowledge, this is the first comparative study of the carbon impacts of land use change of the main biofuel crops in southern Africa.

%B Biomass and Bioenergy %G eng %1 ne/l001373/1 %2 ne-l001373-1 %4 Malawi; Mozambique; Swaziland %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.biombioe.2016.05.011 %0 Journal Article %J Hydrological Processes %D 2016 %T Impacts of land use on the hydrological response of tropical Andean catchments %A Ochoa-Tocachi, Boris F. %A Buytaert, Wouter %A De Bièvre, Bert %A Celleri, Rolando %A Crespo, Patricio %A Villacis, Marcos %A Llerena, Carlos A. %A Acosta, Luis %A Villazon, Mauricio %A Guallpa, Mario %A Gil-Rios, Junior %A Fuentes, Paola %A Olaya, Dimas %A Vinas, Paul %A Rojas, Gerver %A Arias, Sandro %X

Changes in land use and land cover are major drivers of hydrological alteration in the tropical Andes. However, quantifying their impacts is fraught with difficulties because of the extreme diversity in meteorological boundary conditions, which contrasts strongly with the lack of knowledge about local hydrological processes. Although local studies have reduced data scarcity in certain regions, the complexity of the tropical Andes poses a big challenge to regional hydrological prediction. This study analyses data generated from a participatory monitoring network of 25 headwater catchments covering three of the major Andean biomes (paramo, jalca and puna) and links their hydrological responses to main types of human interventions (cultivation, afforestation and grazing). A paired catchment setup was implemented to evaluate the impacts of change using a 'trading space-for-time' approach. Catchments were selected based on regional representativeness and contrasting land use types. Precipitation and discharge have been monitored and analysed at high temporal resolution for a time period between 1 and 5 years. The observed catchment responses clearly reflect the extraordinarily wide spectrum of hydrological processes of the tropical Andes. They range from perennially humid paramos in Ecuador and northern Peru with extremely large specific discharge and baseflows, to highly seasonal, flashy catchments in the drier punas of southern Peru and Bolivia. The impacts of land use are similarly diverse and their magnitudes are a function of catchment properties, original and replacement vegetation and management type. Cultivation and afforestation consistently affect the entire range of discharges, particularly low flows. The impacts of grazing are more variable but have the largest effect on the catchment hydrological regulation. Overall, anthropogenic interventions result in increased streamflow variability and significant reductions in catchment regulation capacity and water yield, irrespective of the hydrological properties of the original biome. Copyright (C) 2016 The Authors. Hydrological Processes. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

%B Hydrological Processes %I WILEY %V 30 %P 4074-4089 %G eng %N 22 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %3 5 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000388275200006 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/hyp.10980 %M 0885-6087 %0 Journal Article %J Sustainability %D 2016 %T Inequalities in human well-being in the urban Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna delta %A Szabo, Sylvia %A Hajra, Rituparna %A Baschieri, Angela %A Matthews, Zoe %X

The recently endorsed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda unanimously agrees on the need to focus on inclusive development, the importance of eradicating extreme poverty and managing often complex human well-being impacts of rapid urban growth. Sustainable and inclusive urbanisation will accelerate progress towards the SDGs and contribute to eradicating extreme poverty. In tropical delta regions, such as the Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna delta region, urban growth and resulting intra-urban inequalities are accelerated by the impact of environmental and climate change. In this context, the present study uses the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey to analyse the extent of wealth-based inequalities in human well-being in the urban delta region and the determinants of selected welfare measures. The results suggest that the extent of intra-urban inequalities is greatest in educational attainment and access to postnatal healthcare and relatively low in the occurrence of gastric disease. The paper concludes by providing policy recommendations to reduce increasing wealth inequalities in urban areas, thus contributing to sustainable development of the region.

%B Sustainability %I MDPI AG %V 8 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000380760400019 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3390/su8070608 %M 2071-1050 %0 Journal Article %J Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science %D 2016 %T Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh %A Nicholls, R.J. %A Hutton, C.W. %A Lazar, A.N. %A Allan, A. %A Adger, W.N. %A Adams, H. %A Wolf, J. %A Rahman, M. %A Salehin, M. %X

Deltas provide diverse ecosystem services and benefits for their populations. At the same time, deltas are also recognised as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments, with a range of drivers operating at multiple scales, from global climate change and sea-level rise to deltaic-scale subsidence and land cover change. These drivers threaten these ecosystem services, which often provide livelihoods for the poorest communities in these regions. The imperative to maintain ecosystem services presents a development challenge: how to develop deltaic areas in ways that are sustainable and benefit all residents including the most vulnerable. Here we present an integrated framework to analyse changing ecosystem services in deltas and the implications for human well-being, focussing in particular on the provisioning ecosystem services of agriculture, inland and offshore capture fisheries, aquaculture and mangroves that directly support livelihoods. The framework is applied to the world's most populated delta, the Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta within Bangladesh. The framework adopts a systemic perspective to represent the principal biophysical and socio-ecological components and their interaction. A range of methods are integrated within a quantitative framework, including biophysical and socio-economic modelling and analyses of governance through scenario development. The approach is iterative, with learning both within the project team and with national policy-making stakeholders. The analysis is used to explore physical and social outcomes for the delta under different scenarios and policy choices. We consider how the approach is transferable to other deltas and potentially other coastal areas.

%B Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science %V 183 %P 370-381 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %+ No %R https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.017 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2016 %T Jatropha cultivation in Malawi and Mozambique: impact on ecosystem services, local human well-being, and poverty alleviation %A von Maltitz, Graham P. %A Gasparatos, Alexandros %A Fabricius, Christo %A Morris, Abbie %A Willsi, Kathy J. %X

Jatropha-based biofuels have undergone a rapid boom-and-bust cycle in southern Africa. Despite strong initial support by governments, donors, and the private sector, there is a lack of empirical studies that compare the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of Jatropha’s two dominant modes of production: large plantations and smallholder-based projects. We apply a rapid ecosystem services assessment approach to understand the impact of two Jatropha projects that are still operational despite widespread project collapse across southern Africa: a smallholder-based project (BERL, Malawi) and a large plantation (Niqel, Mozambique). Our study focuses on changes in provisioning ecosystem services such as biofuel feedstock, food, and woodland products that can have important effects on human well-being locally. Qualitative information is provided for other regulating and cultural ecosystem services. Although at this stage no impact is tremendously positive or negative, both projects show some signs of viability and local poverty alleviation potential. However, their long-term sustainability is not guaranteed given low yields, uncertain markets, and some prevailing management practices.

%B Ecology and Society %V 21(3) %G eng %1 eirg-2011-180 %2 eirg-2011-180 %3 2 %# 000385720400013 %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/ES-08554-210303 %0 Journal Article %J Biological Conservation %D 2016 %T Justice and conservation: The need to incorporate recognition %A Martin, Adrian %A Coolsaet, Brendan %A Corbera, Esteve %A Dawson, Neil M. %A Fraser, James A. %A Lehman, Ina %A Rodriguez, Iokine %X

In light of the Aichi target to manage protected areas equitably by 2020, we ask how the conservation sector should be incorporating concerns for social justice. We focus in particular on ‘recognition’, because it is the least well understood aspect of environmental justice, and yet highly relevant to conservation because of its concern with respect for local knowledge and cultures. In order to explore the meaning of recognition in the conservation context, we take four main steps. First, we identify four components of recognition to serve as our analytical framework: subjects of justice, the harms that constitute injustice, the mechanisms that produce injustices, and the responses to alleviate these. Secondly, we apply this framework to explore four traditions of thinking about recognition: Hegelian intersubjectivity, critical theory, southern decolonial theory, and the capabilities approach. Thirdly, we provide three case studies of conservation conflicts highlighting how different theoretical perspectives are illustrated in the claims and practices of real world conservation struggles. Fourthly, we finish the paper by drawing out some key differences between traditions of thinking, but also important areas of convergence. The convergences provide a basis for concluding that conservation should look beyond a distributive model of justice to incorporate concerns for social recognition, including careful attention to ways to pursue equality of status for local conservation stakeholders. This will require reflection on working practices and looking at forms of intercultural engagement that, for example, respect alternative ways of relating to nature and biodiversity.

%B Biological Conservation %V 197 %P 254-261 %G eng %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %3 5 %4 Lao PDR %# 000376798800032 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.biocon.2016.03.021 %0 Journal Article %J Global Change Biology %D 2016 %T Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot %A Willcock, Simon %A Phillips, Oliver L. %A Platts, Philip J. %A Swetnam, Ruth D. %A Balmford, Andrew %A Burgess, Neil D. %A Ahrends, Antje %A Bayliss, Julian %A Doggart, Nike %A Doody, Kathryn %A Fanning, Eibleis %A Green, Jonathan M. H. %A Hall, Jaclyn %A Howell, Kim L. %A Lovett, Jon C. %A Marchant, Rob %A Marshall, Andrew R. %A Mbilinyi, Boniface %A Munishi, Pantaleon K. T. %A Owen, Nisha %A Topp-Jorgensen, Elmer J. %A Lewis, Simon L. %X

Agricultural expansion has resulted in both land use and land cover change (LULCC) across the tropics. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of such change and their resulting impacts are poorly understood, particularly for the presatellite era. Here, we quantify the LULCC history across the 33.9million ha watershed of Tanzania's Eastern Arc Mountains, using geo-referenced and digitized historical land cover maps (dated 1908, 1923, 1949 and 2000). Our time series from this biodiversity hotspot shows that forest and savanna area both declined, by 74% (2.8million ha) and 10% (2.9million ha), respectively, between 1908 and 2000. This vegetation was replaced by a fivefold increase in cropland, from 1.2million ha to 6.7million ha. This LULCC implies a committed release of 0.9PgC (95% CI: 0.4-1.5) across the watershed for the same period, equivalent to 0.3MgCha(-1)yr(-1). This is at least threefold higher than previous estimates from global models for the same study area. We then used the LULCC data from before and after protected area creation, as well as from areas where no protection was established, to analyse the effectiveness of legal protection on land cover change despite the underlying spatial variation in protected areas. We found that, between 1949 and 2000, forest expanded within legally protected areas, resulting in carbon uptake of 4.8 (3.8-5.7) MgCha(-1), compared to a committed loss of 11.9 (7.2-16.6) MgCha(-1) within areas lacking such protection. Furthermore, for nine protected areas where LULCC data are available prior to and following establishment, we show that protection reduces deforestation rates by 150% relative to unprotected portions of the watershed. Our results highlight that considerable LULCC occurred prior to the satellite era, thus other data sources are required to better understand long-term land cover trends in the tropics.

%B Global Change Biology %I WILEY %V 22 %P 2787-2800 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/l001322/1 %2 ne-l001322-1 %3 4 %4 Benin; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Equatorial Guinea; Ethiopia; Ghana; Kenya; Malawi; Namibia; Nigeria; Sierra Leone; South Africa; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000380016800013 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1111/gcb.13218 %M 1354-1013 %0 Journal Article %J Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment %D 2016 %T Land cover impacts on aboveground and soil carbon stocks in Malagasy rainforest %A Andriamananjara, Andry %A Hewson, Jennifer %A Razakamanarivo, Herintsitohaina %A Andrisoa, Riana Hary %A Ranaivoson, Ntsoa %A Ramboatiana, Nantenaina %A Razafindrakoto, Mieja %A Ramifehiarivo, Nandrianina %A Razafimanantsoa, Marie-Paule %A Rabeharisoa, Lilia %A Ramananantoandro, Tahiana %A Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa %A Rabetokotany, Nantenaina %A Razafimbelo, Tantely %X

Deforestation and forest degradation can impact carbon dynamics and, subsequently, ecosystem functioning and climate change. In this study, we surveyed the influence of such land cover changes on four land cover/uses including closed canopy forest, tree fallow, shrub fallow, and degraded land among 120 study sites. We assessed these changes on total carbon stocks including both aboveground biomass (AGB) and soil organic carbon (SOC) including both topsoil, 0-30 cm, and deep soil, 30-100 cm. The four land cover/uses were located within four regions (Andasibe, Didy, Anjahamana, and Lakato) in the Eastern humid tropical forest of Madagascar. Our results show that total carbon stocks, AGB and soil, average 166 +/- 57 Mg C ha(-1) in which 82% is stored in 0-100 cm of soil surface horizon (55% stored in the topsoil and 27% in deep soil) suggesting the importance of soil pools in the sequestration of atmospheric carbon. The total carbon stocks were significantly higher in closed canopy compared to the other land covers. In lower altitude regions, the total carbon stock was lower ranging from 143.5 Mg C ha(-1) to 163.7 Mg C ha(-1), relative to higher altitude areas where total C stock ranged from 170.6 Mg C ha(-1) to 186.1 Mg C ha(-1). The relative importance of AGB and SOC were reversed in these study sites, with AGB/ SOC ratios of 0.37 for Anjahamana, 0.17 for Lakato, 0.21 for Didy, and 0.17 for Andasibe. Climatic factor combined with soil properties could explain the SOC variations across the study regions. High SOC was related to lower precipitation, high clay content and high root development. These results provide an accurate assessment of carbon storage distribution in a tropical region and support the importance of forest conservation and effective land cover management in maintaining carbon storage in ecosystems as tools in climate change mitigation in tropical forests. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

%B Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment %I ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV %V 233 %P 1-15 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %3 2 %4 Madagascar %# 000389088400001 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.agee.2016.08.030 %M 0167-8809 %0 Journal Article %J Bmc Public Health %D 2016 %T Lay perceptions of risk factors for Rift Valley fever in a pastoral community in northeastern Kenya %A Ng'ang'a, Caroline M. %A Bukachi, Salome A. %A Bett, Bernard K. %X

Background: Human behavioral factors have been found to be central in the transmission of Rift Valley fever. Consumption of contaminated meat and milk in particular have been identified as one of the key risk factors for the transmission of Rift Valley fever in humans. In pastoral communities, livestock is the main source of livelihood from which many benefits such as food as well as economic and cultural services are derived. Zoonotic diseases therefore have a great impact on pastoral communities livelihoods. However, lay perceptions regarding the transmission of these diseases including Rift Valley fever hampers their effective control. This study investigated the lay perceptions of risks for Rift Valley fever transmission in a pastoral community in northeastern Kenya.

%B Bmc Public Health %I BIOMED CENTRAL LTD %V 16 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000368064700005 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1186/s12889-016-2707-8 %M 1471-2458 %0 Book Section %D 2016 %T The lived experience of climate change impacts and adaptation in low income settlements %A Roy, Manoj %E Cawood, Sally %E Hordijk, Michaela %E Hulme, David %X

This chapter unpacks the highly complex and value-laden terms ‘urban poverty’ and ‘climate change’, with a specific focus on who the urban poor are, where they live and how climate change exacerbates their existing vulnerabilities. With particular emphasis on everyday, lived experiences, the chapter demonstrates how the urban poor are already coping and/or adapting to these impacts in diverse ways. Finally, the chapter draws together the key concepts (e.g. participation, co-creation, resilience and transformation) noted above, exploring their relevance to current policy and planning on urban poverty and climate change. Three key themes drawn from the two research projects and associated papers are used to structure the remainder of the book – vulnerability, adaptation and the built environment; understanding change and adaptation: from institutional interface to co-production; and from learning to knowledge, innovation to action.

%I Routledge %@ 9781138860506 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/Urban-Poverty-and-Climate-Change-Life-in-the-slums-of-Asia-Africa-and/Roy-Cawood-Hordijk-Hulme/p/book/9781138860506 %1 ne/l001616/1 %2 ne-l001616-1 %4 Bangladesh; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Environment %D 2016 %T Making SDGs work for climate change hotspots %A Szabo, Sylvia %A Nicholls, Robert J. %A Neumann, Barbara %A Renaud, Fabrice G. %A Matthews, Zoe %A Sebesvari, Zita %A AghaKouchak, Amir %A Bales, Roger %A Ruktanonchai, Corrine Warren %A Kloos, Julia %A Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi %A Wester, Philippus %A New, Mark %A Rhyner, Jakob %A Hutton, Craig %X The impacts of climate change on people's livelihoods have been widely documented.1 1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” ed. C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, M. D. Mastrandrea, K. J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S. K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P. M. Midgley (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2012). View all notes It is expected that climate and environmental change will hamper poverty reduction, or even exacerbate poverty in some or all of its dimensions. Changes in the biophysical environment, such as droughts, flooding, water quantity and quality, and degrading ecosystems, are expected to affect opportunities for people to generate income. These changes, combined with a deficiency in coping strategies and innovation to adapt to particular climate change threats, are in turn likely to lead to increased economic and social vulnerability of households and communities, especially amongst the poorest. %B Environment %I ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD %V 58 %P 24-33 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 3 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000388623500004 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1080/00139157.2016.1209016 %M 0013-9157 %0 Book Section %D 2016 %T Managing complex systems to enhance sustainability %A Willcock, S. %A Hossain, S. %A Poppy, G. M %X

With increasing populations, global resources and processes must be managed sustainably to ensure the continuation of livelihoods. However, this must be achieved in a fair and just manner, safeguarding people's most basic needs and satisfying human rights. Both planetary resource boundaries and the inter-related social foundations can involve complex, non-linear relationships and may well include a wide range of tipping points (where a small change in a driving force results in a strongly non-linear response). Using models can help to develop an understanding of complex systems, to demonstrate trade-offs and potential tipping points, and to provide a testing ground for new practices and policies. Nevertheless, they do not remove the risk associated with decision making. Frameworks (such as the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework and the United States Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment) can perform three vital roles to help manage complex systems: (i) to guide research direction; (ii) to simplify outputs to the level desired by many policy-makers; and (iii) to evaluate the risks associated with specified actions. The application of the techniques outlined in this chapter help decision makers to act promptly, despite both high complexity and uncertainty, to reduce pressures on environmental systems and avoid catastrophic changes of state.

%I Oxford University Press %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000382276100022 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198718826.001.0001 %0 Journal Article %J Geoderma Regional %D 2016 %T Mapping soil organic carbon on a national scale: Towards an improved and updated map of Madagascar %A Ramifehiarivo, Nandrianina %A Brossard, Michel %A Grinand, Clovis %A Andriamananjara, Andry %A Razafimbelo, Tantely %A Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa %A Razafimahatratra, Hery %A Seyler, Frederique %A Ranaivoson, Ntsoa %A Rabenarivo, Michel %A Albrecht, Alain %A Razafindrabe, Frank %A Razakamanarivo, Herintsitohaina %X

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks (SOCs) is highly relevant considering that SOCs is the central driver in climate change mitigation and soil fertility. In Madagascar, a first attempt at mapping SOCs on a national scale was undertaken in 2009 with previous soil data. Advanced research on soil carbon mapping on a global scale is required to enable better land use decisions. This study aims to (i) evaluate the drivers of soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in the first 30 cm soil layer on a national scale from spatially explicit explanatory environmental variables and a recent soil database and (ii) update the spatial distribution of SOCs at this scale through digital mapping. A spatial model was established using randomForest, a decision tree algorithm and based on 10 pedoclimatic, topographic, and vegetation variables. The model was developed with 1993 available soil plot data (collected from 2010 to 2015) and their environmental information (“VALSOL-Madagascar” database). These data were divided into two sets: a first set (n=835) used for model calibration and a second set (n=358) for external validation. Results showed that mean annual temperature (MAT, °C), mean annual precipitation (MAP, mm), elevation (m) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were the most important predictors of SOCs. The retained prediction model had a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) equal to 25.8 MgC·ha-1. The predicted SOCs from fitted models ranged from28 to 198MgC·ha-1 with total SOCs to 4137 TgC. Depending on soil type, Ferralsols(35 to 165 MgC·ha-1) and Andosols (48 to 198 MgC·ha-1) had relevant results related to the number of soil profiles (n = 856 and 171 respectively). Despite the need for in-depth analysis, the model and map produced in the present study has greatly improved our knowledge of the spatial distribution of SOCs in Madagascar and reduced uncertainty compared to the former map. This map provides new perspectives in sustainable land management in Madagascar.

%B Geoderma Regional %G eng %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %4 Madagascar %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.geodrs.2016.12.002 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Poverty, Investment and Development %D 2016 %T Measuring multidimensional rural poverty using combination of methods - a case study from Southern Ethiopia %A Tewodros Tefera %A Bedru Balana %A Teshale Woldeamanuel %A Solomon Tarefasa %A Helaina Black %X

This paper focuses on the development and empirical application of a multidimensional measure of wellbeing index which can be used to assess level of poverty among households in rural areas of developing countries. The study employed community-based participatory and questionnaire-based household survey data collection methods. The final multidimensional index was derived using a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) on household survey data set collected from 358 rural households in Southern Ethiopia. Data on 16 variables measuring multiple aspects of household wealth status were used to extract the set of principal components utilized in the construction of the index. Two key statistical tests, the KMO and Bartlett’s tests, showed the appropriateness of the data for PCA. Results revealed that four major factors influence the wealth status and hence the wellbeing of households: household natural resource endowment, assets endowment, human capital and access to institutional support and proxy to physical market. Therefore, we suggest that any efforts to improve the wellbeing of farm households in the study area as well as in other regions with similar socioeconomic and biophysical settings should consider these factors as entry point to poverty alleviation.

%B Journal of Poverty, Investment and Development %V 29 %8 01/2016 %G eng %K http://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JPID/article/view/33812/34757 %1 NE/K010441/1 %2 ne-k010441-1 %+ Yes %0 Journal Article %J Agronomía Colombiana %D 2016 %T A methodological approach for the non-monetary valuation of ecosystem services in three communities of the Colombian Amazon %A Duran H., Zulma %A Arguello A., Heliodoro %A Tapasco, Jeimar %X

To conduct a non-monetary valuation of ecosystem services, this study explored combining data on the use of ecosystem resources with measuring the effort expended on agricultural activities in three communities of the lower Caqueta, Colombian Amazon. By measuring the energy expended by people during their principal subsistence activities, a measure of wellbeing was also indirectly obtained. For the three communities, the most costly ecosystem service in terms of energy expended was land in forests, which is prepared for planting with felling and clearing, with a value of 1,353 kcal per workday. This was followed by bush meat from hunting at 811 kcal per workday, fish at 682 kcal, obtaining food from the chagra (small family farming plot) at 470 kcal, collecting fruits at 380 kcal, collecting firewood at 148 kcal, and fetching water at 29 kcal. The preparation of casabe (cassava flatbread) as a cultural service has an energy cost of 386 kcal, while preparing mambe (toasted pulverized coca leaves) has a much higher cost at 808 kcal.

%B Agronomía Colombiana %V 34 %P 109-120 %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.15446/agron.colomb.v33n3.52154 %0 Journal Article %J Applied Geography %D 2016 %T Modelling the spatial-temporal distribution of tsetse (Glossina pallidipes) as a function of topography and vegetation greenness in the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe %A Matawa, Farai %A Murwira, Amon %A Zengeya, Fadzai M. %A Atkinson, Peter M. %X

In this study, we developed a stable and temporally dynamic model for predicting tsetse (Glossina pallidipes) habitat distribution based on a remotely sensed Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation greenness, and topographic variables, specifically, elevation and topographic position index (TPI). We also investigated the effect of drainage networks on habitat suitability of tsetse as well as factors that may influence changes in area of suitable tsetse habitat. We used data on tsetse presence collected in North western Zimbabwe during 1998 to develop a habitat prediction model using Maxent (Training AUC = 0.751, test AU = 0.752). Results of the Maxent model showed that the probability of occurrence of tsetse decreased as TPI increased while an increase in elevation beyond 800 m resulted in a decrease in the probability of occurrence. High probabilities (>50%) of occurrence of tsetse were associated with NDVI between high 0.3 and 0.6. Based on the good predictive ability of the, model, we fitted this model to environmental data of six different years, 1986, 1991, 1993, 2002, 2007 and 2008 to predict the spatial distribution of tsetse presence in those years and to quantify any trends or changes in the tsetse distribution, which may be a function of changes in suitable tsetse habitat. The results showed that the amount of suitable tsetse habitat significantly decreased (r(2) 0.799, p = 0.007) for the period 1986 and 2008 due to the changes in the amount of vegetation cover as measured by NDVI over time in years. Using binary logistic regression, the probability of occurrence of suitable tsetse habitat decreased with increased distance from drainage lines. Overall, results of this study suggest that temporal changes in vegetation cover captured by using NDVI can aptly capture variations in habitat suitability of tsetse over time. Thus integration of remotely sensed data and other landscape variables enhances assessment of temporal changes in habitat suitability of tsetse which is crucial in the management and control of tsetse. Crown Copyright (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

%B Applied Geography %I ELSEVIER SCI LTD %V 76 %P 198-206 %G eng %N 12 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 2 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000386188300019 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.09.008 %M 0143-6228 %0 Journal Article %J Infectious Diseases Of Poverty %D 2016 %T Moving interdisciplinary science forward: integrating participatory modelling with mathematical modelling of zoonotic disease in Africa %A Grant, Catherine %A Lo Iacono, Giovanni %A Dzingirai, Vupenyu %A Bett, Bernard %A Winnebah, Thomas R. A. %A Atkinson, Peter M. %X

This review outlines the benefits of using multiple approaches to improve model design and facilitate multidisciplinary research into infectious diseases, as well as showing and proposing practical examples of effective integration. It looks particularly at the benefits of using participatory research in conjunction with traditional modelling methods to potentially improve disease research, control and management. Integrated approaches can lead to more realistic mathematical models which in turn can assist with making policy decisions that reduce disease and benefit local people. The emergence, risk, spread and control of diseases are affected by many complex bio-physical, environmental and socio-economic factors. These include climate and environmental change, land-use variation, changes in population and people's behaviour. The evidence base for this scoping review comes from the work of a consortium, with the aim of integrating modelling approaches traditionally used in epidemiological, ecological and development research. A total of five examples of the impacts of participatory research on the choice of model structure are presented. Example 1 focused on using participatory research as a tool to structure a model. Example 2 looks at identifying the most relevant parameters of the system. Example 3 concentrates on identifying the most relevant regime of the system (e.g., temporal stability or otherwise), Example 4 examines the feedbacks from mathematical models to guide participatory research and Example 5 goes beyond the so-far described two-way interplay between participatory and mathematical approaches to look at the integration of multiple methods and frameworks. This scoping review describes examples of best practice in the use of participatory methods, illustrating their potential to overcome disciplinary hurdles and promote multidisciplinary collaboration, with the aim of making models and their predictions more useful for decision-making and policy formulation.

%B Infectious Diseases Of Poverty %V 5 %G eng %N 9 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 4 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000370780500002 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1186/s40249-016-0110-4 %M 2049-9957 %0 Journal Article %J Biomass and Bioenergy %D 2016 %T Multi-dimensional poverty effects around operational biofuel projects In Malawi, Mozambique And Swaziland %A Mudombi, Shakespear %A von Maltitz, Graham %A Gasparatos, Alexandros %A Romeu-Dalmau, Carla %A Johnson, Fracis X. %A Jumbe, Charles %A Ochieng, Caroline %A Luhanga, Davies %A Lopes, Paulo %A Siddighi Balde, Boubacar %A Willis, Katherine J. %X

There is a long-term concern that the cultivation of biofuel feedstocks could have negative impacts on communities involved in, or adjacent to, such projects. In southern Africa, the acquisition and allocation of large blocks of land for biofuel feedstock production has been especially contentious. The present study investigates the local multi-dimensional poverty effects of growing biofuel crops using the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative's Multidimensional Poverty Index. It investigates different modes of production (large-scale vs. smallholder-based) and different feedstocks (sugarcane vs. jatropha) in four study sites in Malawi, Swaziland and Mozambique. In the sugarcane growing areas, those who participated in its value chain as farmers or workers had lower poverty than those who were not involved. However, for jatropha growing areas, there were no clearly defined differences between the controls and the jatropha farmers in Mangochi, while in Mozambique the plantation workers had slightly lower poverty than the control groups. Although it was not possible to make direct comparisons between all projects, sugarcane areas seem to be better off than non-sugarcane areas. In all projects there was generally high incidence of deprivations in indicators related to living standards, particularly, access to electricity and cooking fuel.

%B Biomass and Bioenergy %G eng %1 eirg-2011-180 %2 eirg-2011-180 %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.biombioe.2016.09.003 %0 Journal Article %J Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %D 2016 %T A multi-host agent-based model for a zoonotic, vector-borne disease. A case study on trypanosomiasis in Eastern Province, Zambia %A Alderton, Simon %A MacLeod, Ewan T. %A Anderson, Neil E. %A Schaten, Kathrin %A Kuleszo, Joanna %A Simuunza, Martin %A Welburn, Susan C. %A Atkinson, Peter M. %X

This paper presents a new agent-based model (ABM) for investigating T. b. rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease dynamics, produced to aid a greater understanding of disease transmission, and essential for development of appropriate mitigation strategies.

%B Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %I PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE %V 10 %G eng %N 12 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000392158100083 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005252 %M 1935-2735 %0 Journal Article %J Canadian Journal Of Fisheries And Aquatic Sciences %D 2016 %T The Nile perch invasion In Lake Victoria: Cause or consequence of the Haplochromine decline? %A van Zwieten, Paul A.M. %A Kolding, Jeppe %A Plank, Michael J. %A Hecky, Robert E. %A Bridgeman, Thomas B. %A MacIntyre, Sally %A Seehausen, Ole %A Silsbe, Greg M. %X

We review alternative hypotheses and associated mechanisms to explain Lake Victoria’s Nile perch (Lates niloticus) takeover and concurrent reduction in haplochromines through a (re)analysis of long-term climate, limnological, and stock observations in comparison with size-spectrum model predictions of co-existence, extinction, and demographic change. The empirical observations are in agreement with the outcomes of the model containing two interacting species with life histories matching Nile perch and a generalized haplochromine. The dynamic interactions may have depended on size-related differences in early juvenile mortality: mouth-brooding haplochromines escape predation mortality in early life stages, unlike Nile perch, which have miniscule planktonic eggs and larvae. In our model, predation on the latter by planktivorous haplochromine fry acts as a stabilizing factor for co-existence, but external mortality on the haplochromines would disrupt this balance in favor of Nile perch. To explain the observed switch, mortality on haplochromines would need to be much higher than the fishing mortality that can be realistically reconstructed from observations. Abrupt concomitant changes in algal and zooplankton composition, decreased water column transparency, and widespread hypoxia from increased eutrophication most likely caused haplochromine biomass decline. We hypothesize that the shift to Nile perch was a consequence of an externally caused, climate-triggered decrease in haplochromine biomass and associated recruitment failure rather than a direct cause of the introduction.

%B Canadian Journal Of Fisheries And Aquatic Sciences %V 73 %P 622-643 %G eng %1 ne/i003266/1 %2 ne-i003266-1 %3 4 %4 Burundi; Congo, Dem. Rep; Congo, Rep.; Ethiopia; Kenya; Malawi; Mozambique; Rwanda; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000375424700015 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1139/cjfas-2015-0130 %0 Book %D 2016 %T One Health: science, politics and zoonotic disease in Africa %A Bardosh, Kevin %X

Zoonotic diseases – pathogens transmitted from animals to people – offer particularly challenging problems for global health institutions and actors given the complex socio-ecological dynamics at play. New forms of risk caused by unprecedented global connectivity and rapid social and environmental change demand new approaches. ‘One Health’ highlights the need for collaboration across sectors and disciplines to tackle zoonotic diseases. However, there has been little exploration of how social, political and economic contexts influence efforts to ‘do’ One Health. This book fills this gap by offering a much-needed political economy analysis of zoonosis research and policy. Through ethnographic qualitative and quantitative data, the book draws together a diverse number of case studies. These include chapters exploring global narratives about One Health operationalisation and prevailing institutional bottlenecks; the evolution of research networks over time; and the histories and politics behind conflicting disease control approaches. The themes from these chapters are further contextualised and expanded upon through country-specific case studies – from Kenya, Zambia, Nigeria, Ghana and Sierra Leone – exploring the translation of One Health research and policy into the Africa context. This book is a valuable resource for academic researchers, students and policy practitioners in the areas of global health, agriculture and development.

%I Taylor & Francis Ltd %@ 1138961485 %G eng %K https://steps-centre.org/publication/one-health-science-politics-and-zoonotic-disease-in-africa-2/# %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Working Publication %D 2016 %T Participatory data collection for ecosystem services research %A Kate Schreckenberg %A C TorresVitolas %A S Willcock %A C Shackleton %A C Harvey %A D Cafumbata %X

From achieving food and water security to ensuring biodiversity conservation, many of the challenges facing the modern world require an understanding of the interdependencies between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation. This manual presents a series of qualitative datacollection tools often grouped under the umbrella of Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) that can be used to obtain local information on the contributions of ecosystem services to livelihoods and food security as well as their implications for natural resource management initiatives.

Drawing on the experience of the ESPA-funded ASSETS project in investigating the links between ecosystem services, food security and nutritional status at the forest-agriculture interface, this manual outlines the process of developing a project-specific set of PRA tools. This process begins with a review of project objectives and key concepts, on the basis of which a set of desired variables can be identified. These, in turn, determine which PRA tools should be applied.

Detailed instructions are provided for over 20 of these tools, from well-being ranking to mapping, matrices, seasonal calendars and Venn diagrams. All are presented in a consistent format which outlines the objectives of the exercise, who it should be carried out with, what equipment is needed, what diagrams might be drawn and what sorts of prompt questions could be asked. The manual also provides guidance on the logistics of planning and implementing participatory research, including discussion of the ethical issues that may arise, and how best to report and synthesise results across several sites.

By applying these varied tools, users will be able to collaborate with local communities to obtain current and trend information on livelihoods and land use, food security (including seasonal changes and coping strategies), mapping and ranking of ecosystem services as well as gaining an understanding of natural resource governance systems and local perceptions of key drivers of change. The methods presented here should be of interest to researchers working broadly in the field of ecosystem services and well-being issues, enabling them to improve their understanding of the ways ecosystems function, the services they provide to a range of different beneficiaries and their relationship with the political economy and sustainable development.

%0 Book Section %D 2016 %T Pastoralism, conservation and resilience: causes and consequences of pastoralist household decision-making. %A Homewood, K %A Keane, A. %A Said, M. %A De Leeuw, J. %E Gardner, S. %E Ramsden, S. %E Hails, S. %X

Recent estimates put global pastoralist populations at around 120 million people, those of sub-Saharan Africa at around 50 million (plus 200 million agro-pastoralists: Inter-Réseaux Développement Rural 2012), and those of the Horn of Africa (including East Africa) at between 12 million and 22 million people. These are debatable figures. There are different definitions of what constitutes a pastoralist, ranging from ‘someone who depends primarily on mobile livestock, extensively reared on open range’ to ‘someone who self-identifies socially and culturally as a pastoralist, even though s/he may own no animals and may rely primarily on other livelihood activities’. Many pastoralists and most observers of pastoralism agree that both definitions are valid. This is because the vagaries of pastoralist lives are such that any one individual, household, or community may move to and fro between the two extremes once or more in the course of their life cycle. As well as the fluidity of definitions, there are complexities around population estimates because of pastoralists’ spatial mobility (whether managing animals, or temporarily otherwise engaged) and their often remote locations. Few sub-Saharan nations have good census data on mobile people or on mobile production systems.

%I British Ecological Society/ Cambridge University Press %C Cambridge %G eng %1 ne/l00139x/1 %2 ne-l00139x-1 %4 Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Pollution %D 2016 %T Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in river and ground/drinking water of the Ganges River basin: Emissions and implications for human exposure %A Sharma, Brij Mohan %A Bharat, Girija K. %A Tayal, Shresth %A Larssen, Thorjorn %A Becanova, Jitka %A Karaskova, Pavlina %A Whitehead, Paul G. %A Futter, Martyn N. %A Butterfield, Dan %A Nizzetto, Luca %X

Many perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are ubiquitous environmental contaminants. They have been widely used in production processes and daily-use products or may result from degradation of precursor compounds in products or the environment. India, with its developing industrialization and population moving from traditional to contemporary lifestyles, represents an interesting case study to investigate PFAS emission and exposure along steep environmental and socioeconomic gradients. This study assesses PFAS concentrations in river and groundwater (used in this region as drinking water) from several locations along the Ganges River and estimates direct emissions, specifically for PFOS and PFOA. 15 PFAS were frequently detected in the river with the highest concentrations observed for PFHxA (0.4 -4.7 ng L-1) and PFBS (

%B Environmental Pollution %V 208 %P 704-713 %G eng %N 10 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 10 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000368306500047 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.envpol.2015.10.050 %M 0269-7491 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2016 %T The politics of negotiation and implementation: a reciprocal water access agreement in the Himalayan foothills, India %A Kovacs, Eszter K. %A Kumar, Chetan %A Agarwal, Chetan %A Adams, William M. %A Hope, Robert A. %A Vira, Bhaskar %X

In this paper, we examine the on-the-ground realities of upstream-downstream negotiations and transactions over ecosystem services. We explore the engagement, negotiation, implementation, and postimplementation phases of a "reciprocal water access" (RWA) agreement between village communities and municipal water users at Palampur, Himachal Pradesh, India. We aim to highlight how external actors drove the payments for ecosystem services agenda through a series of facilitation and research engagements, which were pivotal to the RWA's adoption, and how the agreement fared once external agents withdrew. In the postimplementation period, the RWA agreement continues to be upheld by upstream communities amidst evolving, competing land-use changes and claims. The introduction of cash payments for environmental services for forest-water relationships has given rise to multifaceted difficulties for the upstream hamlets, which has impeded the functionality of their forest management committee. Upstream communities' formal rights and abilities to control and manage their resources are dynamic and need strengthening and assurance; these developments result in fluctuating transaction and opportunity costs not originally envisaged by the RWA agreement. The paper demonstrates the importance of an explicit understanding of the local politics of negotiation and implementation to determine the effectiveness of compensation-based mechanisms for the supply of ecosystem services.

%B Ecology and Society %I RESILIENCE ALLIANCE %V 21 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/i003924/1 %2 ne-i003924-1 %3 1 %4 India %# 000380049100036 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/ES-08462-210237 %M 1708-3087 %0 Journal Article %J Sustainability Science %D 2016 %T Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong, Ganges-Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions %A Szabo, Sylvia %A Brondizio, Eduardo %A Renaud, Fabrice G. %A Hetrick, Scott %A Nicholls, Robert J. %A Matthews, Zoe %A Tessler, Zachary %A Tejedor, Alejandro %A Sebesvari, Zita %A Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi %A da Costa, Sandra %A Dearing, John A. %X

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.

%B Sustainability Science %I SPRINGER JAPAN KK %V 11 %P 539-554 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 2 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000378781700003 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s11625-016-0372-6 %M 1862-4065 %0 Journal Article %J Conservation Biology %D 2016 %T Problematizing debates on wildlife conservation and the war on poaching %A Bluwstein, Jevgeniy %X

The biannual Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute (TAWIRI) conference in Arusha is a science policy event where ideas about conservation science and practice in Tanzania and beyond are exchanged. At the 2015 conference, I learned through event ethnography (Brosius & Campbell, 2010) how the paradigmatic crisis narrative of the so-called war on poaching shaped debates and created a sense of urgency to save elephants and other flagship species, which pushed certain topics and perspectives to the forefront and marginalized others.

%B Conservation Biology %I WILEY-BLACKWELL %V 30 %P 692-693 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/l00139x/1 %2 ne-l00139x-1 %4 Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000379947700002 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1111/cobi.12751 %M 0888-8892 %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2016 %T Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100 %A Payo, Andres %A Mukhopadhyay, Anirban %A Hazra, Sugata %A Ghosh, Tuhin %A Ghosh, Subhajit %A Brown, Sally %A Nicholls, Robert J. %A Bricheno, Lucy %A Wolf, Judith %A Kay, Susan %A Lázár, Attila N. %A Haque, Anisul %X

The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, located in India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation and is an important provider of ecosystem services such as numerous goods and protection against storm surges. With global mean sea-level rise projected as up to 0.98 m or greater by 2100 relative to the baseline period (1985-2005), the Sundarbans - mean elevation presently approximately 2 m above mean sea-level - is under threat from inundation and subsequent wetland loss; however the magnitude of loss remains unclear. We used remote and field measurements, geographic information systems and simulation modelling to investigate the potential effects of three sea-level rise scenarios on the Sundarbans within coastal Bangladesh. We illustrate how the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is able to reproduce the observed area losses for the period 2000-2010. Using this calibrated model and assuming that mean sea-level is a better proxy than the SLAMM assumed mean lower low water for Mangrove area delineation, the estimated mangrove area net losses (relative to year 2000) are 81-178 km(2), 111-376 km(2) and 583-1393 km(2) for relative sea-level rise scenarios to 2100 of 0.46 m, 0.75 m and 1.48 m, respectively and net subsidence of +/- 2.5 mm/year. These area losses are very small (< 10 % of present day area) and significantly smaller than previous research has suggested. Our simulations also suggest that erosion rather than inundation may remain the dominant loss driver to 2100 under certain scenarios of sea-level rise and net subsidence. Only under the highest scenarios does inundation due to sea-level rise become the dominant loss process.

%B Climatic Change %I SPRINGER %V 139 %P 279-291 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000387581400011 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s10584-016-1769-z %M 0165-0009 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2016 %T Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon %A Zulkafli, Zed %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Manz, Bastian %A Veliz Rosas, Claudia %A Willems, Patrick %A Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo %A Guyot, Jean-Loup %A Santini, William %X

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river. Using extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 yr. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100 yr return floods). These findings agree with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest system over greater Amazonia.

%B Environmental Research Letters %V 11 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 3 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000368803800016 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014013 %M 1748-9326 %0 Journal Article %J American Naturalist %D 2016 %T Quantifying global drivers of zoonotic bat viruses: A process-based perspective %A Brierley, Liam %A Vonhof, Maarten J. %A Olival, Kevin J. %A Daszak, Peter %A Jones, Kate E. %X

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), particularly zoonoses, represent a significant threat to global health. Emergence is often driven by anthropogenic activity (e.g., travel, land use change). Although disease emergence frameworks suggest multiple steps from initial zoonotic transmission to human-to-human spread, there have been few attempts to empirically model specific steps. We create a process-based framework to separate out components of individual emergence steps. We focus on early emergence and expand the first step, zoonotic transmission, into processes of generation of pathogen richness, transmission opportunity, and establishment, each with its own hypothesized drivers. Using this structure, we build a spatial empirical model of these drivers, taking bat viruses shared with humans as a case study. We show that drivers of both viral richness (host diversity and climatic variability) and transmission opportunity (human population density, bushmeat hunting, and livestock production) are associated with virus sharing between humans and bats. We also show spatial heterogeneity between the global patterns of these two processes, suggesting that high-priority locations for pathogen discovery and surveillance in wildlife may not necessarily coincide with those for public health intervention. Finally, we offer direction for future studies of zoonotic EIDs by highlighting the importance of the processes underlying their emergence.

%B American Naturalist %V 187 %P E53-E64 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 9 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000368590200013 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1086/684391 %M 0003-0147 %0 Working Publication %D 2016 %T Quantitative scenario parameterisation for ecosystem service research %A S Wilcock %A S Dobbie %X Producing future estimates of the abundance of ecosystem service supply can help design and manage policies to encourage sustainable resource use. This manual presents a series of key stakeholder interviews designed to provide a range of plausible futures. We specifically investigate variables compatible with ARIES ecosystem services models, enabling sensitivity analyses to be conducted on existing models to produce a range of possible future ecosystem services stocks and flows. This manual was developed drawing on the experiences of the ESPA-funded ASSETS project, investigating the links between ecosystem services, food security and nutritional status at the forest-agriculture interface. By applying the methods presented here, users will (in collaboration with key stakeholders) be able to quantitatively estimate future variables that may impact on ecosystem services, including: land cover change; agriculture efficiency change; livestock efficiency change; population projection; climate change; distribution/Infrastructure efficiency change; natural resource harvest and utilisation efficiency change; and change in foresight and public understanding. The methods presented here should be of interest to researchers and practitioners seeking to create an evidence base to support ecosystem services based decision-making in data deficient areas. %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Development %D 2016 %T Recent trends of human wellbeing in the Bangladesh delta %A Hossain, Md Sarwar %A Johnson, Fiifi Amoako %A Dearing, John A. %A Eigenbrod, Felix %X

Although recent studies show that human wellbeing on global and national scales is improving, it is important to monitor the regional progress of human wellbeing and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Here we provide an assessment of human wellbeing in the south-west coastal part of Bangladesh by analysing Household Expenditure Survey (HIES) and Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data from 1995 to 2010. Indicators have been selected based on the five dimensions of human wellbeing, including health, material condition, personal security and freedom of choice and actions. This study shows that the south-west coastal region has made commendable progress in meeting the target MGDs goal for ‘child and maternal health’. However, the areas of ‘personal security’ and ‘freedom of choice and action’ have not achieved the target MDGs despite showing substantial progress for ‘poverty alleviation’ (17%), ‘sanitation coverage’ (40%) and ‘education’ (23%). Incomes from fishery and ‘non-ecosystem’ based livelihood have increased 76% and 8% respectively, whereas income from shrimp and agriculture show declining trends. Production costs have increased substantially since 1995 in response to a rise in GDP. At a household level, proxy indicators of provisioning services, such as crop production, are positively correlated with poverty alleviation. Overall, greater attention on education and sustainable land use is required if Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are to be achieved by 2030.

%B Environmental Development %V 17 %P 21-32 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000372791500004 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.envdev.2015.09.008 %M 2211-4645 %0 Journal Article %J SAWAS %D 2016 %T Recognizing sustainability frontiers in the peri-urban %A Marshall, Fiona %X

This article is concerned with the need to recognize the peri-urban as a frontier of urban sustainability, and to build a deep engagement with the processes of peri-urbanization into formal structures, governance arrangements, and other decision making processes.

%B SAWAS %V 5 %P 98-102 %G eng %K http://www.sawasjournal.org/files/v5i32016/9(Volume%205,%20Issue%203,%20March%202016).pdf %1 ne/l001292/1 %2 ne-l001292-1 %4 Bangladesh; India; Nepal %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Journal Article %J Water Resources Research %D 2016 %T Regionalization of land-use impacts on streamflow using a network of paired catchments %A Ochoa-Tocachi, Boris F. %A Buytaert, Wouter %A De Bièvre, Bert %X

Quantifying the impact of land use and cover (LUC) change on catchment hydrological response is essential for land-use planning and management. Yet hydrologists are often not able to present consistent and reliable evidence to support such decision-making. The issue tends to be twofold: a scarcity of relevant observations, and the difficulty of regionalizing any existing observations. This study explores the potential of a paired catchment monitoring network to provide statistically robust, regionalized predictions of LUC change impact in an environment of high hydrological variability. We test the importance of LUC variables to explain hydrological responses and to improve regionalized predictions using 24 catchments distributed along the Tropical Andes. For this, we calculate first 50 physical catchment properties, and then select a subset based on correlation analysis. The reduced set is subsequently used to regionalize a selection of hydrological indices using multiple linear regression. Contrary to earlier studies, we find that incorporating LUC variables in the regional model structures increases significantly regression performance and predictive capacity for 66% of the indices. For the runoff ratio, baseflow index, and slope of the flow duration curve, the mean absolute error reduces by 53% and the variance of the residuals by 79%, on average. We attribute the explanatory capacity of LUC in the regional model to the pairwise monitoring setup, which increases the contrast of the land-use signal in the data set. As such, it may be a useful strategy to optimize data collection to support watershed management practices and improve decision-making in data-scarce regions.

%B Water Resources Research %I AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION %V 52 %P 6710-6729 %G eng %N 9 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000386977900001 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/2016WR018596 %M 0043-1397 %0 Journal Article %J Global Ecology and Conservation %D 2016 %T The research and practice of integrating conservation and development: Self-reflections by researchers on methodologies, objectives and influence %A Pasgaard, Maya %A Dawson, Neil %A Rasmussen, Laura Vang %A Enghoff, Martin %A Jensen, Arne %X

This study examines the application of mixed-method and participatory approaches to conservation and development research. Both approaches were applied in a research project on the relationship between ecosystem governance and the wellbeing of local communities adjacent to a protected area in Laos. By encouraging four of the involved field researchers to reflect upon and expose their practical approaches as scientific experts (in terms of methodologies, objectives, reliability of results and research influence), this article aims to improve our learning from research practice and to promote reflexivity in research. The reflexive study presented here emphasizes the social and political context or real world situation against which research outputs can and should be evaluated, and retrospectively sheds light on the barriers to reach research objectives. In essence, the article addresses the relation between science and policy, and underlines the political undercurrent of conservation and development research in facilitating institutional change. The article outlines the very role of researchers in developing conservation policies, and provides a foundation for institutions and individual researchers to promote critical and constructive self-reflections in scientific practices.

%B Global Ecology and Conservation %V 9 %P 50-60 %G eng %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %4 Lao PDR %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.gecco.2016.11.006 %0 Working Publication %D 2016 %T A review of conceptual frameworks arising from the ESPA programme %A Aidan Keane %X

Since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a more detailed and nuanced view has emerged of the contribution that ecosystems make to human wellbeing. There is growing consensus that the linkages between ecosystem services and wellbeing are multiple and complex, that they act along both direct and indirect pathways, that they will often include feedback loops and interactions, and that their characteristics vary between different types of ecosystem service, across different components of wellbeing or poverty and over different scales.

Accompanying this, there is increasing recognition that ecosystems do not automatically generate services, but that they are realised through inputs of human capital and labour. ESPA research has contributed to this emerging view through the creation of conceptual frameworks which serve to guide and organise thinking, clarifying our understanding of the links between ecosystem services and wellbeing and highlighting further challenges that must be overcome.

This report reviews eighteen such frameworks. Three of them set out to address the ‘bigger picture’, capturing elements that would be broadly applicable across multiple sites, scales and applications, while others have focussed on key themes such as fairness, equity and justice, the multiple dimensions of human wellbeing and the spatial dynamics of ecosystem services or targeted specific challenges related to ecosystem services such as emerging zoonotic infections, food security, climate change and biodiversity-poverty linkages. One of the clearest messages emerging from ESPA frameworks is the central role of humans and the need for research, management and policy to differentiate between actors in terms of their roles, characteristics, and preferences and to consider how the outcomes of ecosystem service-related governance differ between groups. In this respect, ESPA frameworks also provide tools for clarifying which actors are most able to benefit from ecosystem services, and developed conceptual models for analysing the fairness and effectiveness of ecosystem service management.

Taken together, the frameworks suggest that maximising the potential of ecosystem services to contribute to human wellbeing will require biophysical, social, economic, political and institutional processes to be understood and managed in a coordinated way. These processes interact, operate at different spatial and temporal scales, and may respond in different and unpredictable ways to intervention. Moving forward, a key challenge will be to learn how to study and manage these complex social-ecological-political systems in order to contribute effectively and equitably to poverty alleviation.

%0 Journal Article %J Ecological Economics %D 2016 %T Scaling up pro-environmental agricultural practice using agglomeration payments: Proof of concept from an agent-based model %A Bell, A %A Parkhurst, G %A Droppelmann, K %A Benton, T %X

Rates of adoption of pro-environmental practices in agriculture in many parts of the world are low. In some cases, this is attributable to the private costs borne by farmers to adopt these practices, often well in advance of any benefits – public or private – that they may bring. Monetary incentives, such as through payments-for-ecosystem services (PES) programs, may be of assistance, and in this study we examine the potential for a recent innovation (the agglomeration payment) to improve adoption of pro-environmental practice in a rural agricultural context. Agglomeration payments include bonus payments for adoption by neighboring farms, which may help to encourage both compliance with the program they promote as well as the overall diffusion of the program across rural contexts. We develop an abstract agent-based model (ABM) of an agglomeration payment program to encourage adoption of the pro-environment practice of conservation agriculture (CA). We find that agglomeration payments have the potential to improve levels of adoption of pro-environmental practice per program dollar, and may help to reduce required spending on project monitoring and enforcement.

%B Ecological Economics %V 126 %P 32-41 %G eng %1 ne/l001624/1 %2 ne-l001624-1 %3 2 %4 Malawi %# 000376215400004 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.03.002 %0 Journal Article %J Sustainability Science %D 2016 %T Is shrimp farming a successful adaptation to salinity intrusion? A geospatial associative analysis of poverty in the populous Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Bangladesh %A Amoako Johnson, F %A Hutton, C %A Hornby, D %A Lazar, A %A Mukhopadyay, A %X

The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta of Bangladesh is one of the most populous deltas in the world, supporting as many as 140 million people. The delta is threatened by diverse environmental stressors including salinity intrusion, with adverse consequences for livelihood and health. Shrimp farming is recognised as one of the few economic adaptations to the impacts of the rapidly salinizing delta. Although salinity intrusion and shrimp farming are geographically co-located in the delta, there has been no systematic study to examine their geospatial associations with poverty. In this study, we use multiple data sources including Census, Landsat Satellite Imagery and soil salinity survey data to examine the extent of eospatial clustering of poverty within the delta and their associative relationships with salinity intensity and shrimp farming. The analysis was conducted at the union level, which is the lowest local government administrative unit in Bangladesh. The findings show a strong clustering of poverty in the delta, and whilst different intensities of salinization are significantly associated with increasing poverty, neither saline nor freshwater shrimp farming has a significant association with poverty. These findings suggest that whilst shrimp farming may produce economic growth, in its present form it has not been an effective adaptation for the poor and marginalised areas of the delta. The study demonstrates that there are a series of drivers of poverty in the delta, including salinization, water logging, wetland/mudflats, employment, education and access to roads, amongst others that are discernible spatially, indicating that poverty alleviation programmes in the delta require strengthening with area-specific targeted interventions.

%B Sustainability Science %V 11 %P 423 - 439 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 2 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000374329900005 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s11625-016-0356-6 %0 Journal Article %J Marine Ecology Progress Series %D 2016 %T Similar impacts of fishing and environmental stress on calcifying organisms in Indian Ocean coral reefs %A McClanahan, Timothy R. %A Muthiga, Nyawira A. %X

Calcification and reef growth processes dominated by corals and calcifying algae are threatened by climate and fishing disturbances. Twenty-seven environmental, habitat, and species interaction variables were tested for their influence on coral and calcifier cover in 201 western Indian Ocean coral reefs distributed across similar to 20 degrees of latitude and longitude and up to 20 m deep. These variables predicted more of the total between-site variance of calcifying organism cover (similar to 50%) than coral cover (similar to 20%). Satellite-derived environmental variables of temperature, light, and water quality predicted more of the coral and calcifier cover than feeding interactions when groups of related variables were analyzed separately. Nevertheless, when simultaneously evaluating all variables, the environmental variables better predicted coral cover, but proxies of feeding interactions better predicted calcifier cover. Coral and calcifier cover were most consistently negatively influenced by sea surface temperature distributions (right skewness), but the orange-lined triggerfish Balistapus undulatus consistently had a strong positive association with coral and calcifier cover. Herbivorous fish and Diadematidae sea urchins were not positively associated with coral and calcifier cover. A primary prey of B. undulatus, the rock-boring sea urchin Echinometra mathaei, had a strong negative association with coral cover and particularly calcifier cover. Island reefs had higher calcifier abundance than fringing reefs, which probably results from high Acropora and B. undulatus but low E. mathaei abundance. When comparing all variables and models, these taxonomic associations had more influence than environmental stress variables on calcifiers. Given the important predatory role of B. undulatus in controlling E. mathaei populations, fishing restrictions on this species could help attenuate calcification losses predicted by climate change.

%B Marine Ecology Progress Series %I INTER-RESEARCH %V 560 %P 87-103 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010484/1 %2 ne-k010484-1 %3 1 %4 Kenya; Mozambique %# 000390104900006 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3354/meps11921 %M 0171-8630 %0 Journal Article %J Hydrology And Earth System Sciences %D 2016 %T Socio-hydrological modelling: a review asking "why, what and how?" %A Blair, P. %A Buytaert, W. %X

Interactions between humans and the environment are occurring on a scale that has never previously been seen; the scale of human interaction with the water cycle, along with the coupling present between social and hydrological systems, means that decisions that impact water also impact people. Models are often used to assist in decision-making regarding hydrological systems, and so in order for effective decisions to be made regarding water resource management, these interactions and feedbacks should be accounted for in models used to analyse systems in which water and humans interact. This paper reviews literature surrounding aspects of socio-hydrological modelling. It begins with background information regarding the current state of socio-hydrology as a discipline, before covering reasons for modelling and potential applications. Some important concepts that underlie socio-hydrological modelling efforts are then discussed, including ways of viewing socio-hydrological systems, space and time in modelling, complexity, data and model conceptualisation. Several modelling approaches are described, the stages in their development detailed and their applicability to socio-hydrological cases discussed. Gaps in research are then highlighted to guide directions for future research. The review of literature suggests that the nature of socio-hydrological study, being interdisciplinary, focusing on complex interactions between human and natural systems, and dealing with long horizons, is such that modelling will always present a challenge; it is, however, the task of the modeller to use the wide range of tools afforded to them to overcome these challenges as much as possible. The focus in socio-hydrology is on understanding the human-water system in a holistic sense, which differs from the problem solving focus of other water management fields, and as such models in socio-hydrology should be developed with a view to gaining new insight into these dynamics. There is an essential choice that socio-hydrological modellers face in deciding between representing individual system processes or viewing the system from a more abstracted level and modelling it as such; using these different approaches has implications for model development, applicability and the insight that they are capable of giving, and so the decision regarding how to model the system requires thorough consideration of, among other things, the nature of understanding that is sought.

%B Hydrology And Earth System Sciences %V 20 %P 443-478 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 11 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000369668400026 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5194/hess-20-443-2016 %M 1027-5606 %0 Journal Article %J Scientific Data %D 2016 %T Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh %A Adams, Helen %A Adger, W. Neil %A Ahmad, Sate %A Ahmed, Ali %A Begum, Dilruba %A Lázár, Attila N. %A Matthews, Zoe %A Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur %A Streatfield, Peter Kim %X

Populations in resource dependent economies gain well-being from the natural environment, in highly spatially and temporally variable patterns. To collect information on this, we designed and implemented a 1586-household quantitative survey in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh. Data were collected on material, subjective and health dimensions of well-being in the context of natural resource use, particularly agriculture, aquaculture, mangroves and fisheries. The questionnaire included questions on factors that mediate poverty outcomes: mobility and remittances; loans and micro-credit; environmental perceptions; shocks; and women's empowerment. The data are stratified by social-ecological system to take into account spatial dynamics and the survey was repeated with the same respondents three times within a year to incorporate seasonal dynamics. The dataset includes blood pressure measurements and height and weight of men, women and children. In addition, the household listing includes basic data on livelihoods and income for approximately 10,000 households. The dataset facilitates interdisciplinary research on spatial and temporal dynamics of well-being in the context of natural resource dependence in low income countries.

%B Scientific Data %I NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP %V 3 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000390237600001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1038/sdata.2016.94 %M 2052-4463 %0 Journal Article %J Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences %D 2016 %T A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people %A Balbi, Stefano %A Villa, Ferdinando %A Mojtahed, Vahid %A Hegetschweiler, Karin Tessa %A Giupponi, Carlo %X This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event. %B Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences %V 16 %P 1323-1337 %G eng %1 ne/l001322/1 %2 ne-l001322-1 %3 1 %4 Benin; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Equatorial Guinea; Ethiopia; Ghana; Kenya; Malawi; Namibia; Nigeria; Sierra Leone; South Africa; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000378207900003 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %+ Yes %R 10.5194/nhess-16-1323-2016 %0 Journal Article %J Parasites & Vectors %D 2016 %T Spatial distribution and trypanosome infection of tsetse flies in the sleeping sickness focus of Zimbabwe in Hurungwe District %A Shereni, William %A Anderson, Neil E. %A Nyakupinda, Learnmore %A Cecchi, Giuliano %X

Background: In Zimbabwe, cases of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) are caused by the unicellular protozoan Trypanosoma brucei, sub-species T. b. rhodesiense. They are reported from the tsetse-infested area in the northern part of the country, broadly corresponding to the valley of the Zambezi River. Tsetse-transmitted trypanosomes, in particular T. congolense and T. vivax, also cause morbidity and mortality in livestock, thus generating poverty and food insecurity. Two species of tsetse fly, Glossina morsistans morsitans and G. pallidipes, are known to be present in the Zambezi Valley, although their distributional patterns and densities have not been investigated in detail. The present study tries to address this gap by providing some insight into the dynamics of trypanosomiasis in humans and livestock.

%B Parasites & Vectors %I BIOMED CENTRAL LTD %V 9 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 2 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000388533000006 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1186/s13071-016-1879-5 %M 1756-3305 %0 Journal Article %J Journal For Nature Conservation %D 2016 %T Spatial modeling of deforestation processes in the Central Peruvian Amazon %A Bax, Vincent %A Francesconi, Wendy %A Quintero, Marcela %X

This study examines the relation between primary forest loss and landscape characteristics in the Ucayali region, Peru. Seven variables (rivers, elevation, annual precipitation, soil suitability for agriculture, population density, paved roads, and unpaved roads), were identified as potential deforestation drivers. The variables were converted into spatially explicit layers of continuous data and divided into a 9 km(2) grid. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to determine variable significance. Distance to paved and unpaved roads were strongly associated with deforestation, followed by distance to rivers, annual precipitation and elevation. All significant variables were negatively correlated with deforestation. Variables excluded from the model were population density and soil suitability for agriculture, suggesting that the influence of population density on forest clearing across the study area was not significant, and that deforestation activities were undertaken regardless whether soils are suitable for agriculture or not. Based on the linear regression analysis, the significant variables were selected and added to the Land Change Modeler in order to project primary forest coverage by 2025. The modeling results predict extensive deforestation along the Aguaytia River and at the forest/non-forest interface along the paved highway. The rate of primary forest removal is expected to increase from 4783 ha y(-1) (for the 2007-2014 period) to 5086 ha y(-1) (for the 2015-2025 period). A preliminary survey questionnaire conducted to explore deforestation intentions by farmers in the region, partly confirmed the overall deforestation trends as projected by the model. (C) 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

%B Journal For Nature Conservation %V 29 %P 79-88 %G eng %N 10 %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %3 4 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000370290100009 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.jnc.2015.12.002 %M 1617-1381 %0 Journal Article %J Mountain Research And Development %D 2016 %T Strengthening mountain societies in Central Asia in a context of multidimensional change %A Schmidt-Vogt, Dietrich %A Foggin, Marc %A Hergarten, Christian %X

The Mountain Societies Research Institute (MSRI) conducts transdisciplinary research for development, with the goal of improving the livelihoods and well-being of mountain societies in Central Asia and building their resilience in a rapidly changing socioeconomic, political, and biophysical environment. MSRI is a core institute of the Graduate School of Development at the University of Central Asia (UCA), working alongside the Institute of Public Policy and Administration (IPPA). Beyond research, MSRI also engages in building Central Asian capacities to contribute to sustainable mountain development; serves as a knowledge hub for scholars, development practitioners, and policy-makers; and contributes to the development of UCA's academic programs, which will be offered in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan.

%B Mountain Research And Development %I MOUNTAIN RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT %V 36 %P 380-383 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000384644700013 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-16-00101.1 %M 0276-4741 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Environmental Management %D 2016 %T A systematic review of the reliability and validity of discrete choice experiments in valuing non-market environmental goods %A Rakotonarivo, O. Sarobidy %A Schaafsma, Marije %A Hockley, Neal %X

While discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are increasingly used in the field of environmental valuation, they remain controversial because of their hypothetical nature and the contested reliability and validity of their results. We systematically reviewed evidence on the validity and reliability of environmental DCEs from the past thirteen years (Jan 2003-February 2016). 107 articles met our inclusion criteria. These studies provide limited and mixed evidence of the reliability and validity of DCE. Valuation results were susceptible to small changes in survey design in 45% of outcomes reporting reliability measures. DCE results were generally consistent with those of other stated preference techniques (convergent validity), but hypothetical bias was common. Evidence supporting theoretical validity (consistency with assumptions of rational choice theory) was limited. In content validity tests, 2-90% of respondents protested against a feature of the survey, and a considerable proportion found DCEs to be incomprehensible or inconsequential (17-40% and 10-62% respectively). DCE remains useful for non-market valuation, but its results should be used with caution. Given the sparse and inconclusive evidence base, we recommend that tests of reliability and validity are more routinely integrated into DCE studies, and suggest how this might be achieved.

%B Journal of Environmental Management %V 183 %P 98-109 %G eng %1 fell-2014-104 %2 fell-2014-104 %3 2 %4 Ethiopia; Malawi %# 000386415200010 %6 ESPA Fellowships %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.08.032 %0 Journal Article %J World Development %D 2016 %T Territoriality by conservation in the Selous-niassa corridor in Tanzania %A Bluwstein, Jevgeniy %A Lund, Jens Friis %X

In this paper we argue that historically emerging frontiers of conservation pave the way for continuous top–down territorialization. Drawing on a concrete case in the Selous–Niassa Corridor in Southern Tanzania, we show how a frontier emerged in the form of community-based conservation. Decades of consecutive and continuous territorialization projects, based on mapping and boundary making, have ensured that conservation is beyond questioning, despite failures in the processes of demarcating, controlling, and managing this large-scale socio-spatial intervention. Although these failures produce territorial conflicts and confusions on the ground, we argue that in the context of a conservation frontier the gap between the envisioned ideal and the messy reality is used to legitimize continuous conservation interventions that rely on technical expertise rather than political dialog. While such top–down territorialization by community-based conservation inevitably remains partial and contingent, this is nonetheless a powerful and resilient project that gradually transforms communal landscapes into conservation territories with little room for public debate.

%B World Development %G eng %1 ne/l00139x/1 %2 ne-l00139x-1 %4 Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.09.010 %0 Journal Article %J Estuarine Coastal And Shelf Science %D 2016 %T Tidal intrusion within a mega delta: An unstructured grid modelling approach %A Bricheno, Lucy M. %A Wolf, Judith %A Islam, Saiful %X

The finite volume community ocean model (FVCOM) has been applied to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal in order to simulate tidal hydrodynamics and freshwater flow in a complex river system. The delta region is data-poor in observations of both bathymetry and water level; making it a challenge for accurate hydrodynamic models be configured for and validated in this area. This is the first 3D baroclinic model covering the whole GBM delta from deep water beyond the shelf break to 250 km inland, the limit of tidal penetration.

%B Estuarine Coastal And Shelf Science %I ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD %V 182 %P 12-26 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 1 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000390627700002 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.014 %M 0272-7714 %0 Journal Article %J Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %D 2016 %T A unified framework for the infection dynamics of zoonotic spillover and spread %A Lo Iacono, Giovanni %A Cunningham, Andrew A. %A Fichet-Calvet, Elisabeth %A Garry, Robert F. %A Grant, Donald S. %A Leach, Melissa %A Moses, Lina M. %A Nichols, Gordon %A Schieffelin, John S. %A Shaffer, Jeffrey G. %A Webb, Colleen T. %A Wood, James L. N. %X

A considerable amount of disease is transmitted from animals to humans and many of these zoonoses are neglected tropical diseases. As outbreaks of SARS, avian influenza and Ebola have demonstrated, however, zoonotic diseases are serious threats to global public health and are not just problems confined to remote regions. There are two fundamental, and poorly studied, stages of zoonotic disease emergence: 'spillover', i.e. transmission of pathogens from animals to humans, and 'stuttering transmission', i.e. when limited human-to-human infections occur, leading to self-limiting chains of transmission. We developed a transparent, theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Poisson processes with memory of past human infections, that unifies these stages. Once we have quantified pathogen dynamics in the reservoir, with some knowledge of the mechanism of contact, the approach provides a tool to estimate the likelihood of spillover events. Comparisons with independent agent-based models demonstrates the ability of the framework to correctly estimate the relative contributions of human-to-human vs animal transmission. As an illustrative example, we applied our model to Lassa fever, a rodent-borne, viral haemorrhagic disease common in West Africa, for which data on human outbreaks were available. The approach developed here is general and applicable to a range of zoonoses. This kind of methodology is of crucial importance for the scientific, medical and public health communities working at the interface between animal and human diseases to assess the risk associated with the disease and to plan intervention and appropriate control measures. The Lassa case study revealed important knowledge gaps, and opportunities, arising from limited knowledge of the temporal patterns in reporting, abundance of and infection prevalence in, the host reservoir.

%B Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %I PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE %V 10 %G eng %N 9 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 2 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000385627900026 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004957 %M 1935-2735 %0 Journal Article %J PARKS %D 2016 %T Unpacking equity for protected area conservation %A Schreckenberg, K %A Franks, P %A Martin, A %A Lang, B %X

There have been numerous calls to ensure that protected areas are governed and managed in an equitable manner. While there has been progress on assessing management effectiveness, there has been less headway on defining the equitable part of the equation. Here we propose a framework for advancing equity in the context of protected area conservation that was developed through a process of expert workshops and consultation and then validated at three sites in East Africa. The framework comprises three key dimensions (recognition, procedure and distribution) and 16 principles embedded in a set of enabling conditions, which we illustrate with reference to case studies. We go on to present the case for shifting the framing of protected area conservation from a livelihoods framing to an equity framing, justifying this from both a moral (normative) and instrumental perspective. Finally, we show how equity relates to a number of other key concepts (management effectiveness, governance and social impact) and related assessment tools in protected area conservation, before outlining a step-wise process for using the framework to advance equity in protected area conservation.

%B PARKS %V 22 %G eng %1 espa/rof/2015-16/02 %2 espa-rof-2015-16-02 %6 Regional Opportunity Fund %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.2305/IUCN.CH.2016.PARKS-22-2KS.en %0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %D 2016 %T Unveiling hidden migration and mobility patterns in climate stressed regions: A longitudinal study of six million anonymous mobile phone users in Bangladesh %A Lu, Xin %A Wrathall, David J. %A Sundsoy, Pal Roe %A Nadiruzzaman, Md. %A Wetter, Erik %A Iqbal, Asif %A Qureshi, Taimur %A Tatem, Andrew %A Canright, Geoffrey %A Bengtsson, Linus %E Engo-Monsen, Kenth %X

Climate change is likely to drive migration from environmentally stressed areas. However quantifying short and long-term movements across large areas is challenging due to difficulties in the collection of highly spatially and temporally resolved human mobility data. In this study we use two datasets of individual mobility trajectories from six million de-identifed mobile phone users in Bangladesh over three months and two years respectively. Using data collected during Cyclone Mahasen, which struck Bangladesh in May 2013, we show first how analyses based on mobile network data can describe important short-term features (hours–weeks) of human mobility during and after extreme weather events, which are extremely hard to quantify using standard survey based research. We then demonstrate how mobile data for the first time allow us to study the relationship between fundamental parameters of migration patterns on a national scale. We concurrently quantify incidence, direction, duration and seasonality of migration episodes in Bangladesh. While we show that changes in the incidence of migration episodes are highly correlated with changes in the duration of migration episodes, the correlation between in- and out-migration between areas is unexpectedly weak. The methodological framework described here provides an important addition to current methods in studies of human migration and climate change.

%B Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %V 38 %P 1-7 %G eng %1 fell-2014-106 %2 fell-2014-106 %3 3 %4 Bangladesh %# 000375886300002 %6 ESPA Fellowships %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.002 %0 Book %D 2016 %T Urban poverty and climate change: Life in the slums of Asia, Africa and Latin America %A Roy, Manoj %A Cawood, Sally %A Hordijk, Michaela %A Hulme, David %X

This book deepens the understanding of the broader processes that shape and mediate the responses to climate change of poor urban households and communities in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Representing an important contribution to the evolution of more effective pro-poor climate change policies in urban areas by local governments, national governments and international organisations, this book is invaluable reading to students and scholars of environment and development studies.

%I Taylor & Francis Ltd %@ 9781317506973 %G eng %K https://www.kobo.com/gb/en/ebook/urban-poverty-and-climate-change?utm_source=linkshare_uk&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=tE*u8ndaquA&siteID=tE.u8ndaquA-AMQsZqk1reuIgJhNs99IQg %1 ne/l001616/1 %2 ne-l001616-1 %4 Bangladesh; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J SAWAS %D 2016 %T Urbanization & periurbanization: Challenges for water governance in South Asia %A Narain, Dr. Vishal %A Vij, Sumit %A Prakash, Anjal %A Roth, Dik %X

This article is concerned with the need to recognize the peri-urban as a frontier of urban sustainability, and to build a deep engagement with the processes of peri-urbanization into formal structures, governance arrangements, and other decision making processes in order to realize urban sustainability transformations.

%B SAWAS %V 5 %P 96 - 103 %G eng %K http://www.sawasjournal.org/files/v5i32016/9%28Volume%205,%20Issue%203,%20March%202016%29.pdf %1 ne/l001292/1 %2 ne-l001292-1 %4 Bangladesh; India; Nepal %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Journal Article %J The Law Teacher %D 2016 %T The use of scenarios in legal education to develop futures thinking and sustainability competencies %A Lim, Michelle %A Allan, Andrew %X

Achieving sustainability requires a populace equipped to deal with complex, interacting and ever-changing realities as well as uncertain futures. There is however a significant lack of focus on developing sustainability competencies within legal and governance education. Legal education plays a key role in shaping sustainable futures. Long-term sustainability relies on lawyers, judges and policy-makers being able to make optimal decisions in the present when faced with significant uncertainty about the future. This paper discusses how the combination of problem-based learning (PBL) and scenario-based pedagogical approaches can provide an authentic contextualised learning environment to empower law students to deal with the challenges of global change. The paper highlights the potential of the approach to equip students with the skills to work through plausible future challenges; to consider a range of options; and to manage interacting environmental, social and economic issues in an adaptive fashion. The paper describes how the approach was applied in the context of the Water Law Master’s (LLM) course at the University of Dundee. The paper concludes with recommendations of how scenario-based approaches could be used in other contexts and further highlights the importance of such approaches in developing sustainability competencies through the legal curriculum.

%B The Law Teacher %V 50 %P 321-340 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1080/03069400.2016.1241048 %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Hydrology %D 2016 %T Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model ecosystem services: A systematic review %A Francesconi, Wendy %A Srinivasan, Raghavan %A Pérez-Miñana, Elena %A Willcock, Simon P. %A Quintero, Marcela %X

SWAT, a watershed modeling tool has been proposed to help quantify ecosystem services. The concept of ecosystem services incorporates the collective benefits natural systems provide primarily to human beings. It is becoming increasingly important to track the impact that human activities have on the environment in order to determine its resilience and sustainability. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of efforts using SWAT to quantify ecosystem services, to determine the model's capability examining various types of services, and to describe the approach used by various researchers. A literature review was conducted to identify studies in which SWAT was explicitly used for quantifying ecosystem services in terms of provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural aspects. A total of 44 peer reviewed publications were identified. Most of these used SWAT to quantify provisioning services (34%), regulating services (27%), or a combination of both (25%). While studies using SWAT for evaluating ecosystem services are limited (approximately 1% of SWAT's peered review publications), and usage (vs. potential) of services by beneficiaries is a current model limitation, the available literature sets the stage for the continuous development and potential of SWAT as a methodological framework for quantifying ecosystem services to assist in decision-making. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

%B Journal Of Hydrology %V 535 %P 625-636 %G eng %N 10 %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %3 6 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000373421500051 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.034 %M 0022-1694 %0 Journal Article %J Annual Review Of Environment And Resources %D 2016 %T Valuing cultural ecosystem services %A Hirons, Mark %A Comberti, Claudia %A Dunford, Robert %X

The ecosystem services (ES) framework was developed to articulate and measure the benefits humans receive from ecosystems. Cultural ecosystem services (CES), usually defined as the intangible and nonmaterial benefits ecosystems provide, have been relatively neglected by researchers and policy-makers compared to provisioning, supporting, and regulating services. Although valuing CES poses several conceptual and methodological difficulties, it is of huge interest and importance because of the linkages between cultural values, valuation methods, and the individual and collective decision-making that influence ecosystems and human wellbeing. This review is not a how-to guide, but rather examines key conceptual issues and maps critical areas of debate. There is a range of potential approaches to assessing CES; however, choices regarding valuation methods and their role in decision-making are shaped by cultural and political dynamics. CES are at a crossroads. They can potentially act as a fruitful conceptual container for a broad range of interdisciplinary research into human-environment relations and transform how decisions regarding the environment are made, but they can also be used to legitimize and entrench modes of decision-making that marginalize and undermine the very values they are intended to protect.

%B Annual Review Of Environment And Resources %I ANNUAL REVIEWS %V 41 %P 545-574 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010379/1 %2 ne-k010379-1 %3 2 %4 Ethiopia; Ghana %# 000398214100021 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085831 %M 1543-5938 %0 Book Section %D 2016 %T Valuing ecosystems as an economic part of climate-compatible development infrastructure in coastal zones of Kenya & Sri Lanka %A Emerton, Lucy %A Huxham, Mark %A Bournazel, Jil %A Kumara, M. Priyantha %X

Even though ‘green’ options for addressing the impacts of climate change have gained in currency over recent years, they are yet to be fully mainstreamed into development policy and practice. One important reason is the lack of economic evidence as to why investing in ecosystems offers a cost-effective, equitable and sustainable means of securing climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction and other development co-benefits. This chapter presents a conceptual framework for integrating ecosystem values into climate-compatible development planning. Case studies from coastal areas of Kenya and Sri Lanka illustrate how such an approach can be applied in practice to make the economic and business case for ecosystem-based measures. It is argued that, rather than posing ‘grey’ and ‘green’ options as being necessarily in opposition to each other or as mutually incompatible, from an economic perspective both should be seen as being part and parcel of the same basic infrastructure that is required to deliver essential development services in the face of climate change.

%I Springer %@ 978-3-319-43631-9 %G eng %1 ne/i003401/1 %2 ne-i003401-1 %4 Kenya %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/978-3-319-43633-3_2 %0 Journal Article %J Habitat International %D 2016 %T Ways of knowing the wastewaterscape: Urban political ecology and the politics of wastewater in Delhi, India %A Karpouzoglou, Timothy %A Zimmer, Anna %X

The notion of waterscape has been proposed by urban political ecology (UPE) scholars as a conceptual lens for understanding urban hydro-social flows. So far, however, there has been little attention by UPE scholars to the importance of wastewater in urban waterscapes. This study demonstrates how wastewater is embedded in an arena of social relations of power, defined in this article as the wastewaterscape. Drawing on research conducted in Delhi, the aim of the study is to examine re-occurring problems of wastewater disposal and mismanagement through the lens of knowledge; and the different ways of knowing about wastewater which exist amongst inhabitants of an informal settlement, scientific experts and municipal workers in Delhi. On the basis of our analysis, we argue that the systemic exposure of poorer urban citizens to untreated wastewater cannot be attributed to the shortcomings of service delivery alone, but is more fundamentally associated with how legitimacy is awarded to competing systems of knowledge about wastewater in the urban sphere. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

%B Habitat International %I PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD %V 54 %P 150-160 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 2 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000374798300006 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.12.024 %M 0197-3975 %0 Book Section %D 2016 %T What are the links between poverty and ecosystem services? %A Schaafsma, Marije %A Fisher, Brendan %X

The idea that nature provides services to people is one of the most powerful concepts to have emerged over the last two decades. It is shaping our understanding of the role that biodiverse ecosystems play in the environment and their benefits for humankind. As a result, there is a growing interest in operational and methodological issues surrounding ecosystem services amongst environmental managers, and many institutions are now developing teaching programmes to equip the next generation with the skills needed to apply the concepts more effectively. This handbook provides a comprehensive reference text on ecosystem services, integrating natural and social science (including economics). Collectively the chapters, written by the world's leading authorities, demonstrate the importance of biodiversity for people, policy and practice. They also show how the value of ecosystems to society can be expressed in monetary and non-monetary terms, so that the environment can be better taken into account in decision making. The significance of the ecosystem service paradigm is that it helps us redefine and better communicate the relationships between people and nature. It is shown how these are essential to resolving challenges such as sustainable development and poverty reduction, and the creation of a green economy in developing and developed world contexts.

%I Routledge %C London %@ 978-1-138-02508-0 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/Routledge-Handbook-of-Ecosystem-Services/Potschin-Haines-Young-Fish-Turner/p/book/9781138025080 %1 fell-2014-104 %2 fell-2014-104 %4 Ethiopia; Malawi %6 ESPA Fellowships %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability %D 2016 %T What does policy-relevant global environmental knowledge do? The cases of climate and biodiversity %A Turnhout, Esther %A Dewulf, Art %A Hulme, Mike %X

There is a surge in global knowledge-making efforts to inform environmental governance. This article synthesises the current state of the art of social science scholarship about the generation and use of global environmental knowledge. We focus specifically on the issues of scale - providing globalized representations of the environment - and relevance - providing knowledge in a form that is considered usable for decision-making. Using the examples of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services and the Millennium Assessment, the article discusses what policy relevant global knowledge does: how it represents the environment, and how this specific form of knowledge connects with governance and policy.

%B Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability %I ELSEVIER SCI LTD %V 18 %P 65-72 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 20 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000373540900010 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.cosust.2015.09.004 %M 1877-3435 %0 Book Section %D 2016 %T Whose knowledge matters? Trypanosomiasis policymaking in Zambia. %A Bardosh, Kevin %X

Zoonotic diseases – pathogens transmitted from animals to people – offer particularly challenging problems for global health institutions and actors, given the complex social-ecological dynamics at play. New forms of risk caused by unprecedented global connectivity and rapid social and environmental change demand new approaches. ‘One Health’ highlights the need for collaboration across sectors and disciplines to tackle zoonotic diseases. However, there has been little exploration of how social, political and economic contexts influence efforts to ‘do’ One Health.

%I Routledge %@ 978-1-138-96149-4 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/One-Health-Science-politics-and-zoonotic-disease-in-Africa/Bardosh/p/book/9781138961494 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Forest Policy and Economics %D 2016 %T Wild food collection and nutrition under commercial agriculture expansion in agriculture-forest landscapes %A Broegaard, Rikke Brandt %A Rasmussen, Laura Vang %A Dawson, Neil %A Mertz, Ole %A Vongvisouk, Thoumthone %A Grogan, Kenneth %X

Wild food constitutes a substantial part of household food consumption around the world, but rapid land use changes influence the availability of wild foods, which has implications for smallholders' food and nutrient intake. With increasing commercial agriculture and biodiversity conservation efforts in forested tropical regions, many shifting cultivation systems are being intensified and their extent restricted. Studies examining the consequences of such pressures commonly overlook the diminishing role of wild food. Using a combination of collection diaries, participant observation, remote sensing, and interviews, we examined the role of agriculture-forest landscapes in the provision of wild food in rapidly transforming shifting cultivation communities in northern Laos. We found that wild food contributed less to human diets in areas where pressure on land from commercial agriculture and conservation efforts was more intense. Our results demonstrate that increasing pressure on land creates changes in the shifting cultivation landscape and people's use thereof with negative effects on the quality of nutrition, including protein deficiency, especially in communities adjacent to core conservation areas. Our study shows the importance of adopting a more nutrition-sensitive approach to the linkages between commercial agriculture and biodiversity conservation (and the policies that promote them), wild food provisioning, and food security.

%B Forest Policy and Economics %P 1-2 %G eng %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %4 Lao PDR %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.forpol.2016.12.012 %0 Journal Article %J Soil %D 2016 %T World's soils are under threat %A Montanarella, Luca %A Pennock, Daniel Jon %A McKenzie, Neil %A Badraoui, Mohamed %A Chude, Victor %A Baptista, Isaurinda %A Kazem AlaviPanah, Sayed %A AlShankiti, Abdullah %A Mamo, Tekalign %A El Mustafa Elsheikh, Elsiddig Ahmed %A Hempel, Jon %A Yemefack, Martin %A Singh Aulakh, Mikha %A Camps Arbestain, Marta %A Nachtergaele, Freddy %A Yagi, Kazuyuki %A Vargas, Ronald %A Young Hong, Suk %A Vijarnsorn, Pisoot %A Zhang, Gan-Lin %A Arrouays, Dominique %A Black, Helaina %A Krasilnikov, Pavel %A Sobocka, Jaroslava %A Alegre, Julio %A Henriquez, Carlos Roberto %A de Lourdes Mendonca-Santos, Maria %A Taboada, Miguel %A Espinosa-Victoria, David %X The Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils has completed the first State of the World's Soil Resources Report. Globally soil erosion was identified as the gravest threat, leading to deteriorating water quality in developed regions and to lowering of crop yields in many developing regions. We need to increase nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use in infertile tropical and semi-tropical soils – the regions where the most food insecurity among us are found – while reducing global use of these products overall. Stores of soil organic carbon are critical in the global carbon balance, and national governments must set specific targets to stabilize or ideally increase soil organic carbon stores. Finally the quality of soil information available for policy formulation must be improved – the regional assessments in the State of the World's Soil Resources Report frequently base their evaluations on studies from the 1990s based on observations made in the 1980s or earlier. %B Soil %V 2 %P 79-82 %G eng %1 ne/k010441/1 %2 ne-k010441-1 %4 Ethiopia; Uganda %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5194/soil-2-79-2016 %0 Book Section %D 2015 %T Adapting to climate variability and change %A Buytaert, W. %A Mishra, A. %A Demuth, S. %A Jimenez Cisneros, B. %A Stewart, B. %A Caponi, C. %X

The essence of sustainable freshwater resources management is balancing freshwater supplies with demands and uses in a manner that ensures water availability (quantity and quality) for the present and the future. Climate variability and change may affect both sides of the balance, and thus add to the challenges (IPCC, 2014).

%I UNESCO %@ 978-92-3-100071-3 %G eng %K http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/environment/water/wwap/wwdr/2015-water-for-a-sustainable-world/ %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Journal Article %J IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science %D 2015 %T Advances in soil biology: what does this mean for assessing soil change? %A Black, Helaina %A Mele, Pauline %X Our interests in soil change are moving away from soil properties and increasingly towards changes in the processes and functioning of soils. Soil organisms are fundamental to dynamics and change in soils through their fundamental role in soil processes [1]. However it is only with recent technical and theoretical advances that we have started to establish quantitative relationships between soil biology and soil change (c.f. [2]). It is this predictive understanding that will enable us to fully integrate soil biology into the effective monitoring and sustainable management of soils. This paper outlines some of the recent advances in soil biology and discusses their relevance to monitoring and management. %B IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science %V 25 %G eng %1 ne/k010441/1 %2 ne-k010441-1 %4 Ethiopia; Uganda %# 000359291100007 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1088/1755-1315/25/1/012006 %0 Journal Article %J Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability %D 2015 %T Advancing sustainability through mainstreaming a social-ecological systems perspective %A Fischer, Joern %A Gardner, Toby A. %A Bennett, Elena M. %A Balvanera, Patricia %A Biggs, Reinette %A Carpenter, Stephen %A Daw, Tim %A Folke, Carl %A Hill, Rosemary %A Hughes, Terry P. %A Luthe, Tobias %A Maass, Manuel %A Meacham, Megan %A Norstrom, Albert V. %A Peterson, Garry %A Queiroz, Cibele %A Seppelt, Ralf %A Spierenburg, Marja %A Tenhunen, John %X

The concept of social-ecological systems is useful for understanding the interlinked dynamics of environmental and societal change. The concept has helped facilitate: (1) increased recognition of the dependence of humanity on ecosystems; (2) improved collaboration across disciplines, and between science and society; (3) increased methodological pluralism leading to improved systems understanding; and (4) major policy frameworks considering social-ecological interactions. Despite these advances, the potential of a social-ecological systems perspective to improve sustainability outcomes has not been fully realized. Key priorities are to: (1) better understand and govern social-ecological interactions between regions; (2) pay greater attention to long-term drivers; (3) better understand the interactions among power relations, justice, and ecosystem stewardship; and (4) develop a stronger science-society interface.

%B Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability %V 14 %P 144-149 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/k010484/1 %2 ne-k010484-1 %3 28 %4 Kenya; Mozambique %# 000366330500018 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.cosust.2015.06.002 %M 1877-3435 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change – a model framework %A Lázár, Attila N. %A Clarke, Derek %A Adams, Helen %A Razzaque Akanda, Abdur %A Szabo, Sylvia %A Nicholls, Robert J. %A Matthews, Zoe %A Begum, Dilruba %A Saleh, Abul Fazal M. %A Anwarul Abedin, Md. %A Payo, Andres %A Streatfield, Peter Kim %A Hutton, Craig %A Shahjahan Mondal, M. %A Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md. %X

Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income–expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of pricing due to greater susceptibility to climate vagaries. The livelihood and poverty results highlight the importance of the holistic consideration of the human–nature system and the careful selection of poverty indicators. Although the simulation model at this stage contains the minimum elements required to simulate the complexity of farmer livelihood interactions in coastal Bangladesh, the crop and socio-economic findings compare well with expected behaviours. The presented integrated model is the first step to develop a holistic, transferable analytic method and tool for coastal Bangladesh.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %V 17 %P 1007 - 1192 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 13 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300002 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/C4EM00600C %0 Journal Article %J Journal of environmental management %D 2015 %T Applying Climate Compatible Development and economic valuation to coastal management: A case study of Kenya's mangrove forests %A Huxham, Mark %A Emerton, Lucy %A Kairo, James %A Munyi, Fridah %A Abdirizak, Hassan %A Muriuki, Tabitha %A Nunan, Fiona %A Briers, Robert A. %X

Mangrove forests are under global pressure. Habitat destruction and degradation persist despite longstanding recognition of the important ecological functions of mangroves. Hence new approaches are needed to help stakeholders and policy-makers achieve sound management that is informed by the best science. Here we explore how the new policy concept of Climate Compatible Development (CCD) can be applied to achieve better outcomes. We use economic valuation approaches to combine socio-economic data, projections of forest cover based on quantitative risk mapping and storyline scenario building exercises to articulate the economic consequences of plausible alternative future scenarios for the mangrove forests of the South Kenya coast, as a case study of relevance to many other areas. Using data from 645 household surveys, 10 focus groups and 74 interviews conducted across four mangrove sites, and combining these with information on fish catches taken at three landing sites, a mangrove carbon trading project and published data allowed us to make a thorough (although still partial) economic valuation of the forests. This gave a current value of the South Coast mangroves of USD 6.5 million, or USD 1166ha(-1), with 59% of this value on average derived from regulating services. Quantitative risk mapping, projecting recent trends over the next twenty years, suggests a 43% loss of forest cover over that time with 100% loss at the most vulnerable sites. Much of the forest lost between 1992 and 2012 has not been replaced by high value alternative land uses hence restoration of these areas is feasible and may not involve large opportunity costs. We invited thirty eight stakeholders to develop plausible storyline scenarios reflecting Business as Usual (BAU) and CCD - which emphasises sustainable forest conservation and management - in twenty years time, drawing on local and regional expert knowledge of relevant policy, social trends and cultures. Combining these scenarios with the quantitative projections and economic baseline allowed the modelling of likely value added and costs avoided under the CCD scenario. This suggests a net present value of more than US$20 million of adoption of CCD rather than BAU. This work adds to the economic evidence for mangrove conservation and helps to underline the importance of new real and emerging markets, such as for REDD+ projects, in making this case for carbon-rich coastal habitats. It demonstrates a policy tool - CCD - that can be used to engage stakeholders and help to co-ordinate policy across different sectors towards mangrove conservation.

%B Journal of environmental management %V 157 %P 168-81 %G eng %1 ne/i003401/1 %2 ne-i003401-1 %3 7 %4 Kenya %# 000355715600017 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.04.018 %0 Journal Article %J Ecological Economics %D 2015 %T Assessing the contribution of ecosystem services to human wellbeing: A disaggregated study in western Rwanda %A Dawson, Neil %A Martin, Adrian %X

Lack of attention to social complexity has created a gap between current ecosystem service research and the kind of insights needed to inform ecosystem management in the tropics. To contribute to closing this gap, this study applies a methodology for exploring complex linkages between ecosystem services and human wellbeing. This builds on emerging frameworks for studying multiple dimensions of human wellbeing, drawing on Amartya Sen's capabilities approach to human development. The approach is applied to an empirical case study of three sites adjacent to native tropical forest in western Rwanda. The value of exploring social complexity in ecosystem services research is illustrated through its contribution to understanding a) different types of values; b) disaggregation of people; c) power relations and their influence on trade-offs; d) the importance of multiple land use types in the landscape; and e) changes and their drivers at multiple scales. The analysis reveals that the majority of services valued by forest-adjacent Rwandan inhabitants are not provided by tropical forests but by other habitats. We suggest that more integrated landscape governance may offer synergistic opportunities for conservation and development.

%B Ecological Economics %V 117 %P 62-72 %G eng %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %3 7 %4 Lao PDR %# 000360512800007 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.06.018 %M 0921-8009 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system %A Jin, L. %A Whitehead, P. G. %A Sarkar, S. %A Sinha, R. %A Futter, M. N. %A Butterfield, D. %A Caesar, J. %A Crossman, J. %X

Anthropogenic climate change has impacted and will continue to impact the natural environment and people around the world. Increasing temperatures and altered rainfall patterns combined with socio-economic factors such as population changes, land use changes and water transfers will affect flows and nutrient fluxes in river systems. The Ganga river, one of the largest river systems in the world, supports approximately 10% global population and more than 700 cities. Changes in the Ganga river system are likely to have a significant impact on water availability, water quality, aquatic habitats and people. In order to investigate these potential changes on the flow and water quality of the Ganga river, a multi-branch version of INCA Phosphorus (INCA-P) model has been applied to the entire river system. The model is used to quantify the impacts from a changing climate, population growth, additional agricultural land, pollution control and water transfers for 2041-2060 and 2080-2099. The results provide valuable information about potential effects of different management strategies on catchment water quality.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 8 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300008 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/C5EM00092K %M 2050-7887 %0 Journal Article %J Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews %D 2015 %T Biofuels in sub-Sahara Africa: Drivers, impacts and priority policy areas %A Gasparatos, A. %A von Maltitz, G. P. %A Johnson, F. X. %A Lee, L. %A Mathai, M. %A Puppim de Oliveira, J. A. %A Willis, K. J. %X

There has been a growing interest in jatropha- and sugarcane-based biofuels across Sub-Sahara Africa. Biofuel expansion in the region reflects policy concerns related to energy security, poverty alleviation and economic development. However, biofuels have also been linked to numerous environmental and socioeconomic impacts such as GHG emissions, water availability/pollution, deforestation, biodiversity loss, poverty alleviation, energy security, loss of access to land and food security to name just a few. Yet there is (a) an insufficient understanding of these impacts (and their synergies) in Sub-Sahara Africa, and (b) a lack of policies that could regulate the biofuel sector and ensure its viability while at the same time preventing its negative impact. The aim of this literature review is to synthesize the current knowledge about biofuel impacts in Africa and to identify priority policy areas that should be targeted for enhancing biofuel sustainability in the continent. The findings of this review indicate that biofuel impacts can be positive or negative depending on several factors such as the feedstock, the environmental/socio-economic context of biofuel production, and the policy instruments in place during biofuel production, use and trade. In most cases there are significant trade-offs but at least part of the negative impacts can be mitigated through careful planning. The incomplete and piecemeal understanding of these trade-offs combined with agronomic, institutional and market failures are currently the most important barriers for the viability and sustainability of biofuel investments in the continent.

%B Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews %V 45 %P 879-901 %G eng %1 eirg-2011-180 %2 eirg-2011-180 %3 7 %# 000351963400064 %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.rser.2015.02.006 %M 1364-0321 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Biogeography %D 2015 %T Biogeography versus resource management: how do they compare when prioritizing the management of coral reef fish in the south-western Indian Ocean? %A McClanahan, T. R %X

Aim: Numbers of coral reef species are broadly influenced by historical, physical and geographical factors that are often the basis for prioritizing conservation and management investments. In contrast, the number of species at a site is often influenced by site-specific factors, including abundance, benthic cover and other habitat features (depth and exposure), fishing pressure and resource management. Conservation policies and programmes often prioritize geographies or specific management systems within specific geographies. I evaluate the variance in number of species at the site scale and estimate the contributions of fishing pressure, local habitat factors and regional geography to local diversity.

Location: Coral reefs of the south-western Indian Ocean (SWIO).

Methods: Site-level species richness data from an extensive field sample of common coral reef fish at 266 sites in seven SWIO countries were analysed to create four species richness metrics to evaluate the effects of local site, geography and management.

Results: The local number of species was strongly predicted by an asymptotic relationship with fish biomass, followed by habitat variables, and lastly by the geographical positions of latitude and longitude. A species richness centre or ‘hotspot’ was found between Madagascar and the African coastline, but the variance attributable to geography when biomass and habitat effects were removed was small. Evaluation of the number of species in five existing fisheries management categories indicated that differences were chiefly influenced by biomass rather than habitat factors.

Main conclusions: Although the centre of species richness may indicate a climate refugium that should be considered in conservation prioritization, this diversity-centre effect can weaken if habitat and biomass features are reduced by climate disturbances and fishing. Consequently, the highest priority for conserving local numbers of reef fish species is to maintain biomass above the c.600 kg ha-1 threshold found in this study.

%B Journal of Biogeography %G eng %1 ne/i00324x/1 %2 ne-i00324x-1 %3 7 %4 Kenya %# 000367690000016 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1111/jbi.12604 %0 Book Section %D 2015 %T Bringing context to poverty in rural Rwanda: added value and challenges of mixed methods approaches %A Dawson, Neil %X

The added value of mixed methods research in poverty and vulnerability is now widely recognized. However, despite the expanding volume of literature on the use of mixed methods, gaps and challenges still remain. This edited volume focuses on issues of credibility, usability and complexity, considering how mixed methods approaches can better respond to these issues so as to make research more credible, usable and responsive to complexity. The contributors share experiences and lessons learned from research in developed and developing country contexts in respect of mixed methods in poverty measurement, evaluation research and the translation from research to policy.

%I Palgrave Macmillan %@ 9781137452504 %G eng %K https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057%2F9781137452511_4#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M58 %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %4 Lao PDR %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %D 2015 %T Can REDD+ social safeguards reach the 'right' people? Lessons from Madagascar %A Poudyal, M %A Ramamonjisoa, B %A Hockley, N %A Rakotonarivo, O %A Gibbons, J %A Mandimbiniaina, R %A Rasoamanana, A %A Jones, J %X

There is extensive debate about the potential impact of the climate mechanism REDD+ on the welfare of forest-dwelling people. To provide emission reductions, REDD+ must slow the rate of deforestation and forest degradation: such a change will tend to result in local opportunity cost to farmers at the forest frontier. Social safeguard processes to mitigate negative impacts of REDD+ are being developed and can learn from existing safeguard procedures such as those implemented by the World Bank. Madagascar has a number of REDD+ pilot projects with World Bank support including the Corridor Ankeniheny-Zahamena (CAZ). Nearly two thousand households around the corridor have been identified as ‘project affected persons’ (PAPs) and given compensation. We compare households identified as project affected persons with those not identified. We found households with more socio-political power locally, those with greater food security, and those that are more accessible were more likely to be identified as eligible for compensation while many people likely to be negatively impacted by the REDD+ project did not receive compensation. We identify three issues which make it difficult for a social safeguard assessment to effectively target the households for compensation: (a) poor information on location of communities and challenging access means that information does not reach remote households; (b) reluctance of people dependant on shifting agriculture to reveal this due to government sanctions; and (c) reliance by safeguard assessors on non-representative local institutions. We suggest that in cases where the majority of households are likely to bear costs and identification of affected households is challenging, the optimal, and principled, strategy may be blanket compensation offered to all the households in affected communities; avoiding the dead weight costs of ineffective safeguard assessments. The Paris Agreement in December 2015 recognised REDD+ as a key policy instrument for climate change mitigation and explicitly recognised the need to respect human rights in all climate actions. However, safeguards will be prone to failure unless those entitled to compensation are aware of their rights and enabled to seek redress where safeguards fail. This research shows that existing safeguard commitments are not always being fulfilled and those implementing social safeguards in REDD+ should not continue with business as usual.

%B Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %V 37 %P 31-42 %G eng %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %3 11 %4 Madagascar %# 000372762600003 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.01.004 %0 Book Section %D 2015 %T Carbon and the struggle over land in the Zambezi valley %A Leach, Melissa %E Scoones, Ian %X

Amidst the pressing challenges of global climate change, the last decade has seen a wave of forest carbon projects across the world, designed to conserve and enhance forest carbon stocks in order to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and offset emissions elsewhere. Exploring a set of new empirical case studies, Carbon Conflicts and Forest Landscapes in Africa examines how these projects are unfolding, their effects, and who is gaining and losing. Situating forest carbon approaches as part of more general moves to address environmental problems by attaching market values to nature and ecosystems, it examines how new projects interact with forest landscapes and their longer histories of intervention. The book asks: what difference does carbon make? What political and ecological dynamics are unleashed by these new commodified, marketized approaches, and how are local forest users experiencing and responding to them? The book’s case studies cover a wide range of African ecologies, project types and national political-economic contexts. By examining these cases in a comparative framework and within an understanding of the national, regional and global institutional arrangements shaping forest carbon commoditisation, the book provides a rich and compelling account of how and why carbon conflicts are emerging, and how they might be avoided in future. This book will be of interest to students of development studies, environmental sciences, geography, economics, development studies and anthropology, as well as practitioners and policy makers.

%@ 9781138824829 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/Carbon-Conflicts-and-Forest-Landscapes-in-Africa/Leach-Scoones/p/book/9781138824836 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata %A Mukhopadhyay, Anirban %A Mondal, Parimal %A Barik, Jyotiskona %A Chowdhury, S. M. %A Ghosh, Tuhin %A Hazra, Sugata %X

The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 4 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300009 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/C4EM00611A %M 2050-7887 %0 Book Section %D 2015 %T Changing forest dynamics: plot-based evidence %A Peh, K. %E Corlett, R. %E Bergeron, Y. %X

We evaluate the plot-based evidence for changing forest dynamics, focussing on changes within pristine 'ol-growth' forests. First, we discuss aboveground changes, many of which have been observed using long-term plots. Second, we focus on belowground shifts, primarily using short-term experimental plots. Finally, we summarise the evidence by which the drivers of the observed changes in forest dynamics can be identified and suggest which possible changes in forest dynamics may be expected in the future.

%I Routledge %@ 0415735459 %G eng %K https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0415735459/ref=rdr_ext_tmb#reader_041573545 %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Water Resources Planning And Management %D 2015 %T Citizen science for water resources management: Toward polycentric monitoring and governance? %A Buytaert, W %A Dewulf, A %A De Bièvre, B %A Clark, J %A Hannah, D %X

Novel and more affordable technologies are allowing new actors to engage increasingly in the monitoring of hydrological systems and the assessment of water resources. This trend may shift data collection from a small number of mostly formal institutions (e.g., statutory monitoring authorities, water companies) toward a much more dynamic, decentralized, and diverse network of data collectors (including citizens and other nonspecialists). Such a move toward a more diverse and polycentric type of monitoring may have important consequences for the generation of knowledge about water resources and the way that this knowledge is used to govern these resources. An increasingly polycentric approach to monitoring and data collection will change inevitably the relation between monitoring and decision-making for water resources. On a technical level, it may lead to improve availability of, and access to, data. Furthermore, the opportunity for actors to design and implement monitoring may lead to data collection strategies that are tailored better to locally specific management questions. However, in a policy context the evolution may also shift balances of knowledge and power. For example, it will be easier to collect data and generate evidence to support specific agendas, or for nonspecialists to challenge existing agreements, laws, and statutory authorities. We identify strong links with polycentric models of river basin management and governance. Polycentric models (Ostrom 2010) recognize the existence of multiple centers of decision-making within a catchment and provide a potential alternative to the top-down centralizing tendencies of integrated water resources management. Although polycentric systems are often associated with data scarcity, we argue that citizen science provides a framework for data collection in such systems and that it provides opportunities for knowledge generation, institutional capacity building and policy support, in particular in basins that are faced with multiple challenges, stressors, and resource scarcity.

%B Journal Of Water Resources Planning And Management %P 1816002 %G eng %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 4 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000372804500010 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000641 %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Hydrometeorology %D 2015 %T A comparative analysis of TRMM-rain gauge data merging techniques at the daily time scale for distributed rainfall-runoff modeling applications %A Nerini, Daniele %A Zulkafli, Zed %A Wang, Li-Pen %A Onof, Christian %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo %A Guyot, Jean-Loup %X

This study compares two nonparametric rainfall data merging methods - the mean bias correction and double-kernel smoothing with two geostatistical methods - kriging with external drift and Bayesian combination - for optimizing the hydrometeorological performance of a satellite-based precipitation product over a mesoscale tropical Andean watershed in Peru. The analysis is conducted using 11 years of daily time series from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) research product (also TRMM 3B42) and 173 rain gauges from the national weather station network. The results are assessed using 1) a cross-validation procedure and 2) a catchment water balance analysis and hydrological modeling. It is found that the double-kernel smoothing method delivered the most consistent improvement over the original satellite product in both the cross-validation and hydrological evaluation. The mean bias correction also improved hydrological performance scores, particularly at the subbasin scale where the rain gauge density is higher. Given the spatial heterogeneity of the climate, the size of the modeled catchment, and the sparsity of data, it is concluded that nonparametric merging methods can perform as well as or better than more complex geostatistical methods, whose assumptions may not hold under the studied conditions. Based on these results, a systematic approach to the selection of a satellite-rain gauge data merging technique is proposed that is based on data characteristics. Finally, the underperformance of an ordinary kriging interpolation of the rain gauge data, compared to TMPA and other merged products, supports the use of satellite-based products over gridded rain gauge products that utilize sparse data for hydrological modeling at large scales.

%B Journal Of Hydrometeorology %V 16 %P 2153-2168 %G eng %N 5 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %3 8 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000362222500014 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0197.1 %M 1525-755X %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Geophysical Research: Oceans %D 2015 %T Could the Madagascar bloom be fertilized by Madagascan iron? %A Srokosz, Meric %A Robinson, Josie %A McGrain, H %A Popova, Ekaterina %A Yool, Andrew %X In the oligotrophic waters to the east of Madagascar a large phytoplankton bloom is found to occur in late austral summer. This bloom is composed of nitrogen fixers and can cover up to ~1% of the world's ocean surface area. Satellite observations show that its spatial structure is closely tied to the underlying mesoscale eddy field in the region. The causes of the bloom and its temporal behavior (timing of its initiation and termination) and spatial variability are poorly understood, in part due to a lack of in situ observations. Here an eddy resolving 1/12° resolution ocean general circulation model and Lagrangian particle tracking are used to examine the hypothesis that iron from sediments around Madagascar could be advected east by the mesoscale eddy field to fertilize the bloom, and that variability in advection could explain the significant interannual variability in the spatial extent of the bloom. The model results suggest that this is indeed possible and furthermore imply that the bloom could be triggered by warming of the mixed layer, leading to optimal conditions for nitrogen fixers to grow, while its termination could be due to iron exhaustion. It is found that advection of Madagascan iron could re-supply the bloom region with this micronutrient in the period between the termination of one bloom and the initiation of the next in the following year. %B Journal Of Geophysical Research: Oceans %G eng %1 ne/m007545/1 %2 ne-m007545-1 %3 5 %4 Madagascar %# 000362653600029 %6 ESPA-2014 Blue Skies %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/2015JC011075 %0 Journal Article %J Atmospheric Environment %D 2015 %T Disaggregated N2O emission factors in China based on cropping parameters create a robust approach to the IPCC Tier 2 methodology %A Shepherd, Anita %A Yan, Xiaoyuan %A Nayak, Dali %A Newbold, Jamie %A Moran, Dominic %A Dhanoa, Mewa Singh %A Goulding, Keith %A Smith, Pete %A Cardenas, Laura M. %X China accounts for a third of global nitrogen fertilizer consumption. Under an International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 assessment, emission factors (EFs) are developed for the major crop types using country-specific data. IPCC advises a separate calculation for the direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of rice cultivation from that of cropland and the consideration of the water regime used for irrigation. In this paper we combine these requirements in two independent analyses, using different data quality acceptance thresholds, to determine the influential parameters on emissions with which to disaggregate and create N2O EFs. Across China, the N2O EF for lowland horticulture was slightly higher (between 0.74% and 1.26% of fertilizer applied) than that for upland crops (values ranging between 0.40% and 1.54%), and significantly higher than for rice (values ranging between 0.29% and 0.66% on temporarily drained soils, and between 0.15% and 0.37% on un-drained soils). Higher EFs for rice were associated with longer periods of drained soil and the use of compound fertilizer; lower emissions were associated with the use of urea or acid soils. Higher EFs for upland crops were associated with clay soil, compound fertilizer or maize crops; lower EFs were associated with sandy soil and the use of urea. Variation in emissions for lowland vegetable crops was closely associated with crop type. The two independent analyses in this study produced consistent disaggregated N2O EFs for rice and mixed crops, showing that the use of influential cropping parameters can produce robust EFs for China. %B Atmospheric Environment %I PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD %V 122 %P 272-281 %G eng %N 1725 %1 ne/i002375/1 %2 ne-i002375-1 %3 6 %4 China %# 000367413600028 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.09.054 %M 1352-2310 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2015 %T Do ecosystem service maps and models meet stakeholders' needs? A preliminary survey across sub-Saharan Africa %A Willcock, S %A Hooftman, D %A Sitas, N %A O'Farrell, P %A Hudson, M %A Reyers, B %A Eigenbrod, F %A Bullock, J %X

To achieve sustainability goals, it is important to incorporate ecosystem service (ES) information into decision-making processes. However, little is known about the correspondence between the needs of ES information users and the data provided by the researcher community. We surveyed stakeholders within sub-Saharan Africa, determining their ES data requirements using a targeted sampling strategy. Of those respondents utilising ES information (>90%; n = 60), 27% report having sufficient data; with the remainder requiring additional data – particularly at higher spatial resolutions and at multiple points in time. The majority of respondents focus on provisioning and regulating services, particularly food and fresh water supply (both 58%) and climate regulation (49%). Their focus is generally at national scales or below and in accordance with data availability. Among the stakeholders surveyed, we performed a follow-up assessment for a sub-sample of 17 technical experts. The technical experts are unanimous that ES models must be able to incorporate scenarios, and most agree that ES models should be at least 90% accurate. However, relatively coarse-resolution (1-10 km2) models are sufficient for many services. To maximise the impact of future research, dynamic, multi-scale datasets on ES must be delivered alongside capacity-building efforts.

%B Ecosystem Services %V 18 %P 110-117 %G eng %1 ne/l001322/1 %2 ne-l001322-1 %3 1 %4 Benin; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Equatorial Guinea; Ethiopia; Ghana; Kenya; Malawi; Namibia; Nigeria; Sierra Leone; South Africa; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000375213800010 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.02.038 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh %A Whitehead, P. G. %A Sarkar, S. %A Jin, L. %A Futter, M. N. %A Caesar, J. %A Barbour, E. %A Butterfield, D. %A Sinha, R. %A Nicholls, R. %A Hutton, C. %A Leckie, H. D. %X

This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system. This is the first basin scale water quality study for the Ganga considering climate change at 25 km resolution together with socio-economic scenarios. The revised dynamic, process-based INCA model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality within the complex multi-branched river basins. All climate realizations utilized in the study predict increases in temperature and rainfall by the 2050s with significant increase by the 2090s. These changes generate associated increases in monsoon flows and increased availability of water for groundwater recharge and irrigation, but also more frequent flooding. Decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution. Different future socio-economic scenarios were found to have a significant impact on water quality at the downstream end of the Ganga. A less sustainable future resulted in a deterioration of water quality due to the pressures from higher population growth, land use change, increased sewage treatment discharges, enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and water abstraction. However, water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 14 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300007 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/C4EM00616J %M 2050-7887 %0 Journal Article %J EcoHealth %D 2015 %T Ebola, bats and evidence-based policy %A Wood, J %A Cunningham, A %A Suu-Ire, R %A Jephcott, F %A Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y %X

At the time of writing, West Africa is still dealing with the worst known Ebola epidemic. Quite rightly, the international focus has been on reducing the transmission rate of this disease until it is eradicated from the human population. Once the epidemic curve has declined to this point, scientific attention should be re-directed to the prevention of future zoonotic outbreaks. There already has been much written on how the West African epidemic might have been sparked, but speculation often has been presented as fact and in some cases has been contrary to available evidence. Such inaccurate reporting on the drivers of the emergence of this epidemic is unfortunate, as this can influence policy decisions while failing to identify how Ebola and other serious zoonoses should be controlled.

%B EcoHealth %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 3 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000375378400003 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s10393-015-1050-3 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2015 %T Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation: A review of the empirical links %A Suich, Helen %A Howe, Caroline %A Mace, Georgina %X

We present the results of a review of the empirical evidence and of the state of knowledge regarding the mechanisms linking ecosystem services and poverty alleviation. The review was undertaken to determine the state of current knowledge about the scale and nature of these linkages, and focus the future research agenda. Research has, to date, focussed largely on provisioning services, and on just two poverty dimensions concerning income and assets, and food security and nutrition. While many papers describe links between ecosystem services and dimensions of poverty, few provide sufficient context to enable a thorough understanding of the poverty alleviation impacts (positive or negative), if any. These papers contribute to the accumulating evidence that ecosystem services support well-being, and perhaps prevent people becoming poorer, but provide little evidence of their contribution to poverty alleviation, let alone poverty elimination. A considerable gap remains in understanding the links between ecosystem services and poverty, how change occurs, and how pathways out of poverty may be achieved based on the sustainable utilisation of ecosystem services.

%B Ecosystem Services %V 12 %P 137-147 %G eng %1 espa-res-001 %2 espa-res-001 %3 10 %4 Global %# 000363665300014 %6 Directorate Research %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.02.005 %M 2212-0416 %0 Journal Article %J Biological Conservation %D 2015 %T Effectiveness of Community Forest Management at reducing deforestation in Madagascar %A Rasolofoson, Ranaivo A. %A Ferraro, Paul J. %A Jenkins, Clinton N. %A Jones, Julia P. G. %X

Community Forest Management (CFM) is a widespread conservation approach in the tropics. It is also promoted as a means by which payment for ecosystem services schemes can be implemented. However, evidence on its performance is weak. We investigated the effectiveness of CFM at reducing deforestation from 2000 to 2010 in Madagascar. To control for factors confounding impact estimates, we used statistical matching. We also contrasted the effects of CFM by whether commercial use of forest resources is allowed or not. We cannot detect an effect, on average, of CFM compared to no CFM, even when we restricted the sample to only where information suggests effective CFM implementation on the ground. Likewise, we cannot detect an effect of CFM where commercial use of natural resources is allowed. However, we can detect a reduction in deforestation in CFM that does not permit commercial uses, compared to no CFM or CFM allowing commercial uses. Our findings suggest that CFM and commercial use of forest resources are not guarantees of forest conservation and that differentiating among types of CFM is important. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

%B Biological Conservation %V 184 %P 271-277 %G eng %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %3 10 %4 Madagascar %# 000353007200030 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.biocon.2015.01.027 %M 0006-3207 %0 Journal Article %J Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability %D 2015 %T Environmental Virtual Observatories (EVOs): Prospects for knowledge co-creation and resilience in the Information Age %A Karpouzoglou, Timothy %A Zulkafli, Zed %A Grainger, Sam %A Dewulf, Art %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Hannah, David M %X

Developments in technologies are shaping information access globally. This presents opportunities and challenges for understanding the role of new technologies in sustainability research. This article focuses on a suite of technologies termed Environmental Virtual Observatories (EVOs) developed for communicating observations and simulation of environmental processes. A strength of EVOs is that they are open and decentralised, thus democratising flow and ownership of information between multiple actors. However, EVOs are discussed rarely beyond their technical aspects. By evaluating the evolution of EVOs, we illustrate why it is timely to engage with policy and societal aspects as well. While first generation EVOs are primed for scientists, second generation EVOs can have broader implications for knowledge co-creation and resilience through their participatory design.

%B Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability %P 40-48 %G eng %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 8 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000373540900007 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.cosust.2015.07.015 %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %D 2015 %T Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services and human well-being %A Daw, Tim M. %A Coulthard, Sarah %A Cheung, William W. L. %A Brown, Katrina %A Abunge, Caroline %A Galafassi, Diego %A Peterson, Garry D. %A McClanahan, Tim R. %A Omukoto, Johnstone O. %A Munyi, Lydiah %X

Managing ecosystems for multiple ecosystem services and balancing the well-being of diverse stakeholders involves different kinds of trade-offs. Often trade-offs involve noneconomic and difficult-to-evaluate values, such as cultural identity, employment, the well-being of poor people, or particular species or ecosystem structures. Although trade-offs need to be considered for successful environmental management, they are often overlooked in favor of win-wins. Management and policy decisions demand approaches that can explicitly acknowledge and evaluate diverse trade-offs. We identified a diversity of apparent trade-offs in a small-scale tropical fishery when ecological simulations were integrated with participatory assessments of social–ecological system structure and stakeholders’ well-being. Despite an apparent win-win between conservation and profitability at the aggregate scale, food production, employment, and well-being of marginalized stakeholders were differentially influenced by management decisions leading to trade-offs. Some of these trade-offs were suggested to be “taboo” trade-offs between morally incommensurable values, such as between profits and the well-being of marginalized women. These were not previously recognized as management issues. Stakeholders explored and deliberated over trade-offs supported by an interactive “toy model” representing key system trade-offs, alongside qualitative narrative scenarios of the future. The concept of taboo trade-offs suggests that psychological bias and social sensitivity may exclude key issues from decision making, which can result in policies that are difficult to implement. Our participatory modeling and scenarios approach has the potential to increase awareness of such trade-offs, promote discussion of what is acceptable, and potentially identify and reduce obstacles to management compliance.

%B Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %V 112 %P 6949-6954 %G eng %N 22 %1 ne/i00324x/1 %2 ne-i00324x-1 %3 32 %4 Kenya %# 000355832200057 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1073/pnas.1414900112 %0 Journal Article %J PLos One %D 2015 %T Exploiting human resource requirements to infer human movement patterns for use in modelling disease transmission systems: an example from Eastern Province, Zambia %A Alderton, Simon %A Noble, Jason %A Schaten, Kathrin %A Welburn, Susan C. %A Atkinson, Peter M. %X

In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

%B PLos One %V 10 %G eng %N 9 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 2 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000362175700124 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0139505 %M 1932-6203 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta %A Darby, Stephen E. %A Dunn, Frances E. %A Nicholls, Robert J. %A Rahman, Munsur %A Riddy, Liam %X

We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21st century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21st century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience of the delta to sea-level rise by giving greater potential for vertical accretion. However, these increased sediment fluxes may not be realised due to uncertainties in the monsoon related response to climate change or other human-induced changes in the catchment: this is a subject for further research.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %V 17 %P 1587-1600 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 6 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000361146500006 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1039/C5EM00252D %M 2050-7887 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal Of Environmental Science And Development %D 2015 %T Flow distribution and sediment transport mechanism in the estuarine systems of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta %A Haque, A. %A .Sumaiya %A Rahman, M. %X

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta is one of the most dynamic tide dominated deltas in the world, a dynamism forced in part by the huge flows and sediments generated in the catchments of the GBM basins. In this study, we apply 1D and 2D dynamic models (HEC RAS and Delft 3D) to analyze the volumetric flow distribution in these estuarine systems. The flow distribution parameters are then used as proxy variables to study the sediment transport mechanism in the region. Flow distribution patterns show that freshwater input and storage are much higher than the saltwater input and storage. Considering freshwater contribution, eastern estuarine system plays important role during monsoon whereas, during dry season it is central estuarine system. Western estuarine system mainly contributes to store saline water. The Lower Meghna estuary is the main flow and sediment carrying channel in the region. Clock-wise estuarine circulation makes the sediments to re-enter from the sea into central estuarine system, forms flocks in the saline environment, and cause sedimentation .

%B International Journal Of Environmental Science And Development %V 07(1) %P 22-30 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.7763/IJESD.2016.V7.735 %0 Journal Article %J Land Use Policy %D 2015 %T Framing ecosystem services: Affecting behaviour of actors in collaborative landscape planning? %A Opdam, Paul %A Coninx, Ingrid %A Dewulf, Art %A Steingrover, Eveliene %A Vos, Claire %A van der Wal, Merel %X

The concept of ecosystem services shifts the human-nature relationship from a conservation-oriented into a utility-oriented one. Advocates of the concept assume that it can alter the attitude and behaviour of human actors with respect to nature. The ecosystem services concept has so far received little attention in scientific literature about collaborative landscape planning. Consequently the potential of information about ecosystem services to influence landscape planning processes is unknown. In this paper we address the impact of different storylines about ecosystem services on actor behaviour. In these storylines, we distinguish three frames on ecosystem services: a social-cultural frame (emphasizing social-cultural services), an economic frame (emphasizing production services) and a sustainability frame (highlighting regulation services). We propose a conceptual framework in which we connect the concept of framing to attitudinal, sender-receiver and contextual factors. The framework is illustrated by a spatial planning experiment with academic students and by a case of collaborative landscape planning. The student experiment illustrates how attitudinal factors may intervene in the impact frames on actor behaviour. The case analysis shows how researchers who facilitated collaborative landscape planning used various frames as they attempted to build up the actor network to create collaborative relations in different phases of the planning process. The significance of our paper is that we provide an approach to investigate how information on ecosystem service benefits is processed by multiple actors in collaborative landscape planning processes. Our exploration implies that planners who facilitate a collaborative planning process have to be aware that purposively using ecosystem service frames stimulates engagement of actors with diverging backgrounds. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

%B Land Use Policy %I ELSEVIER SCI LTD %V 46 %P 223-231 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 11 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000356110500019 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.02.008 %M 0264-8377 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta system: biophysical models to support analysis of ecosystem services and poverty alleviation %A Nicholls, Robert J. %A Whitehead, Paul %A Wolf, Judith %A Rahman, Munsur %A Salehin, Mashfiqus %X

Deltas have been recognised as some of the most vulnerable coastal environments for the last 30 or more years, following initial concerns about climate induced sea-level rise. However, this is just one driver, and it is increasingly recognised that deltas are vulnerable to multiple drivers of change at multiple scales. These include changing catchment management upstream of the deltas, subsidence within the delta, land cover change within the delta and marine processes such as ocean circulation, cyclones and storms.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %V 17 %P 1016 - 1017 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 8 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/C5EM90022K %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Modelling & Software %D 2015 %T A geospatial framework to support integrated biogeochemical modelling in the United Kingdom %A Greene, S. %A Johnes, P. J. %A Bloomfield, J. P. %A Reaney, S. M. %A Lawley, R. %A Elkhatib, Y. %A Freer, J. %A Odoni, N. %A Macleod, C. J. A. %A Percy, B. %X

Anthropogenic impacts on the aquatic environment, especially in the context of nutrients, provide a major challenge for water resource management. The heterogeneous nature of policy relevant management units (e.g. catchments), in terms of environmental controls on nutrient source and transport, leads to the need for holistic management. However, current strategies are limited by current understanding and knowledge that is transferable between spatial scales and landscape typologies. This study presents a spatially-explicit framework to support the modelling of nutrients from land to water, encompassing environmental and spatial complexities. The framework recognises nine homogeneous landscape units, distinct in terms of sensitivity of nutrient losses to waterbodies. The functionality of the framework is demonstrated by supporting an exemplar nutrient model, applied within the Environmental Virtual Observatory pilot (EVOp) cloud cyber-infrastructure. We demonstrate scope for the use of the framework as a management decision support tool and for further development of integrated biogeochemical modelling. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

%B Environmental Modelling & Software %V 68 %P 219-232 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %3 6 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000353073700018 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.02.012 %M 1364-8152 %0 Journal Article %J Lancet Global Health %D 2015 %T Governing the UN sustainable development goals: interactions, infrastructures, and institutions %A Waage, Jeff %A Yap, Christopher %A Bell, Sarah %A Levy, Caren %A Mace, Georgina %A Pegram, Tom %A Unterhalter, Elaine %A Dasandi, Niheer %A Hudson, David %A Kock, Richard %A Mayhew, Susannah %A Marx, Colin %A Poole, Nigel %X

Three of the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) concerned health. There is only one health goal in 17 proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Critiques of the MDGs included missed opportunities to realise positive interactions between goals. Here we report on an interdisciplinary analytical review of the SDG process, in which experts in different SDG areas identified potential interactions through a series of interdisciplinary workshops. This process generated a framework that reveals potential conflicts and synergies between goals, and how their interactions might be governed.

%B Lancet Global Health %V 3 %P e251-e252 %G eng %1 espa-res-001 %2 espa-res-001 %3 15 %4 Global %# 000353150900007 %6 Directorate Research %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/S2214-109X(15)70112-9 %M 2214-109X %0 Journal Article %J Frontiers in Marine Science %D 2015 %T Harnessing the climate mitigation, conservation and poverty alleviation potential of seagrasses: prospects for developing blue carbon initiatives and payment for ecosystem service programmes %A Hejnowicz, Adam P %A Kennedy, Hilary %A Rudd, Murray A %A Huxham, Mark R %X

Seagrass ecosystems provide numerous ecosystem services that support coastal communities around the world. They sustain abundant marine life as well as commercial and artisanal fisheries, and help protect shorelines from coastal erosion. Additionally, seagrass meadows are a globally significant sink for carbon and represent a key ecosystem for combating climate change. However, seagrass habitats are suffering rapid global decline. Despite recognition of the importance of “Blue Carbon,” no functioning seagrass restoration or conservation projects supported by carbon finance currently operate, and the policies and frameworks to achieve this have not been developed. Yet, seagrass ecosystems could play a central role in addressing important international research questions regarding the natural mechanisms through which the ocean and the seabed can mitigate climate change, and how ecosystem structure links to service provision. The relative inattention that seagrass ecosystems have received represents both a serious oversight and a major missed opportunity. In this paper we review the prospects of further inclusion of seagrass ecosystems in climate policy frameworks, with a particular focus on carbon storage and sequestration, as well as the potential for developing payment for ecosystem service (PES) schemes that are complementary to carbon management. Prospects for the inclusion of seagrass Blue Carbon in regulatory compliance markets are currently limited; yet despite the risks the voluntary carbon sector offers the most immediately attractive avenue for the development of carbon credits. Given the array of ecosystem services seagrass ecosystems provide the most viable route to combat climate change, ensure seagrass conservation and improve livelihoods may be to complement any carbon payments with seagrass PES schemes based on the provision of additional ecosystem services.

%B Frontiers in Marine Science %V 2:32 %G eng %1 ne/l001535/1 %2 ne-l001535-1 %4 Kenya; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3389/fmars.2015.00032 %0 Journal Article %J Lancet %D 2015 %T Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health %A Watts, N %A Adger, W. N %A Agnolucci, P %A Blackstock, J %A Byass, P %A Cai, W %A Chaytor, S %A Colbourn, T %A Collins, M %A Cooper, A %A Cox, P %A Depledge, J %A Drummonds, P %A Ekins, P %A Galaz, V %A Grace, D %A Graham, H %A Grubb, M %A Haines, A %A Hamilton, I %A Hunter, A %A Jliang, X %A Li, M %A Kelman, I %A Liang, L %A Lott, M %A Lowe, R %A Luo, Y %A Mace, G %A Maslin, M %A Nilsson, M %A Oreszczyn, T %A Pye, S %A Quinn, T %A Svensdotter, M %A Venevsky, S %A Warner, K %A Xu, B %A Yang, J %A Yin, Y %A Yu, C %A Zhang, Q %A Gong, P %A Montgomery, H %A Costello, A %X

The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. This Commission is multidisciplinary and international in nature, with strong collaboration between academic centres in Europe and China.

%B Lancet %V 386 %P 1861-1914 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60854-6 %0 Journal Article %J Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment %D 2015 %T Heterogeneous preferences and the effects of incentives in promoting conservation agriculture in Malawi %A Ward, P %A Bell, A %A Parkhurst, G %A Droppelmann, K %A Mapemba, L %X

There is a great deal of interest in increasing food security through the sustainable intensification of food production in developing countries around the world. One such approach is through Conservation Agriculture (CA), which improves soil quality through a suite of farming practices that reduce soil disturbance, increase soil cover through retained crop residues, and increase crop diversification. We use discrete choice experiments to study farmers’ preferences for these different CA practices, and assess willingness to adopt CA. Despite many long-term agronomic benefits, some farmers are not willing to adopt CA without incentives. Our results suggest that farmers perceive that CA practices interact with one another differently, sometimes complementing and sometimes degrading the benefits of the other practices. But our results also indicate that preferences are a function of experiences with CA, such that current farm level practices influence willingness to adopt the full CA package. Further, exposure to various risks such as flooding and insect infestations often constrains adoption. Providing subsidies can increase likely adoption of a full CA package, but may generate some perverse incentives that can result in subsequent disadoption.

%B Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment %V 222 %P 67-79 %G eng %1 ne/l001624/1 %2 ne-l001624-1 %3 2 %4 Malawi %# 000384383600008 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.agee.2016.02.005 %0 Journal Article %J African Journal of Agricultural Research %D 2015 %T The impact of animals on crop yields in Malawian rural villages %A Weyell, Jessica %A Eigenbrod, Felix %A Hudson, Malcolm %A Kafumbata, Dalitso %A Tsirizeni, Mathews %A Chiotha, Sosten %A Poppy, Guy %A Wilcock, Simon %X

It is essential that the net effect of biodiversity on crop yields is determined; particularly in developing nations, where both increasing food security and reducing biodiversity losses are of high importance. This study modelled the abundance of pests, pollinators and pest-control animals and determined their impact on crop yield within agroecosystems in four rural villages in Malawi. Data on the habitat area, survivorship, fecundity, birthing month and effect on crop yield for 14 animal functional groups were collated through a focused meta-analysis. Using this data, models were created to determine the abundance of each functional group using land cover as the sole input variable; with Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRA) utilised to validate the model prediction. Bees, birds and insects always improved crop yield, whereas monkeys, rodents and large herbivores always result in losses. Three out of four villages experienced a net benefit to crop yield from the animal biodiversity present. We conclude that models derived from meta-analyses appear useful for broadly predicting the local-scale abundance of functional groups and their qualitative impact on crop yield. However, long-term field observations should be conducted to ensure that the PRA values in this study correlate with direct observation.

%B African Journal of Agricultural Research %V 10(31) %P 3016-3028 %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5897/AJAR2015.9966 %M 1991-637X %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna river system: Low flow and flood statistics %A Whitehead, P.G. %A Barbour, E. %A Futter, M.N. %A Sarkar, S. %A Rodda, H. %A Caesar, J. %A Butterfield, D. %A Jin, L. %A Sinha, R. %A Nicholls, R. %A Salehin, M. %X

The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socioeconomic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such as the mangrove forests, with serious implications for people's livelihoods in the area. The socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality, altering nutrient fluxes being transported into the delta region.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %V 17 %P 1057 - 1069 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 11 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300005 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/c4em00619d %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Environmental Management %D 2015 %T Implications of agricultural land use change to ecosystem services in the Ganges delta %A Islam, G. M. Tarekul %A Islam, A. K. M. Saiful %A Shopan, Ahsan Azhar %A Rahman, Md Munsur %A Lázár, Attila N. %A Mukhopadhyay, Anirban %X

Ecosystems provide the basis for human civilization and natural capital for green economy and sustainable development. Ecosystem services may range from crops, fish, freshwater to those that are harder to see such as erosion regulation, carbon sequestration, and pest control. Land use changes have been identified as the main sources of coastal and marine pollution in Bangladesh. This paper explores the temporal variation of agricultural land use change and its implications with ecosystem services in the Ganges delta. With time agricultural lands have been decreased and wetlands have been increased at a very high rate mainly due to the growing popularity of saltwater shrimp farming. In a span of 28 years, the agricultural lands have been reduced by approximately 50%, while the wetlands have been increased by over 500%. A large portion (nearly 40%) of the study area is covered by the Sundarbans which remained almost constant which can be attributed to the strict regulatory intervention to preserve the Sundarbans. The settlement & others land use type has also been increased to nearly 5%. There is a gradual uptrend of shrimp and fish production in the study area. The findings suggest that there are significant linkages between agricultural land use change and ecosystem services in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. The continuous decline of agricultural land (due to salinization) and an increase of wetland have been attributed to the conversion of agricultural land into shrimp farming in the study area. Such land use change requires significant capital, therefore, only investors and wealthier land owners can get the higher profit from the land conversion while the poor people is left with the environmental consequences that affect their long-term lives and livelihood. An environmental management plan is proposed for sustainable land use in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh.

%B Journal of Environmental Management %V 161 %P 443-452 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 5 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000361264100050 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.11.018 %M 0301-4797 %0 Journal Article %J Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change %D 2015 %T Integrating ecosystem services and climate change responses in coastal wetlands development plans for Bangladesh %A Hossain, Md Sarwar %A Hein, Lars %A Rip, Frans I %A Dearing, John A %X

This study explores the integration of ecosystem services and climate change adaptation in development plans for coastal wetlands in Bangladesh. A new response framework for adaptation is proposed, based on an empirical analysis and consultations with stakeholders, using a modified version of the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework. The framework is tested in the Narail district of Bangladesh, where temperature has increased by about 1 °C in the summer in combination with an increase in rainfall of 0.70 mm day-1 yr-1 in the last decade. Calibrated model (MAGICC/SENGEN) projections forecast, on average, a temperature increase of up to 5 °C and an increase in rainfall of 25 % by the end of this century. Water diversion in the upstream regions of the Ganges River delta contributes to increase water scarcity in the dry season. Enhanced rainfall and the immense pressure of water discharges from upstream water sources are increasing the risk of floods and river erosion in the dry season. An increase in the water holding capacity of rivers, wetlands and canals by dredging is urgently required. The empirical model of this study is intended to support adaptation planning and monitoring in Bangladesh and can be used in other data-poor areas which will suffer from climate change.

%B Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change %V 20 %P 241-261 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 6 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000347952400004 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s11027-013-9489-4 %M 1381-2386 %0 Journal Article %J Scientific Reports %D 2015 %T Iodine source apportionment in the Malawian diet %A Watts, M. J. %A Joy, E. J. M. %A Young, S. D. %A Broadley, M. R. %A Chilimba, A. D. C. %A Gibson, R. S. %A Siyame, E. W. P. %A Kalimbira, A. A. %A Chilima, B. %A Ander, E. L. %X The aim of this study was to characterise nutritional-I status in Malawi. Dietary-I intakes were assessed using new datasets of crop, fish, salt and water-I concentrations, while I status was assessed for 60 women living on each of calcareous and non-calcareous soils as defined by urinary iodine concentration (UIC). Iodine concentration in staple foods was low, with median concentrations of 0.01?mg?kg-1 in maize grain, 0.008?mg?kg-1 in roots and tubers, but 0.155?mg?kg-1 in leafy vegetables. Freshwater fish is a good source of dietary-I with a median concentration of 0.51?mg?kg-1. Mean Malawian dietary-Iodine intake from food, excluding salt, was just 7.8?µg?d-1 compared to an adult requirement of 150?µg?d-1. Despite low dietary-I intake from food, median UICs were 203?µg?L-1 with only 12% defined as I deficient whilst 21% exhibited excessive I intake. Iodised salt is likely to be the main source of dietary I intake in Malawi; thus, I nutrition mainly depends on the usage and concentration of I in iodised salt. Drinking water could be a significant source of I in some areas, providing up to 108?µg?d-1 based on consumption of 2?L?d-1. %B Scientific Reports %I NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP %V 5 %G eng %1 ne/i003347/1 %2 ne-i003347-1 %3 5 %4 Malawi %# 000363446500001 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1038/srep15251 %M 2045-2322 %0 Journal Article %J Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability %D 2015 %T The IPBES Conceptual Framework — connecting nature and people %A Díaz, Sandra %A Demissew, Sebsebe %A Carabias, Julia %A Joly, Carlos %A Lonsdale, Mark %A Ash, Neville %A Larigauderie, Anne %A Adhikari, Jay Ram %A Arico, Salvatore %A Báldi, András %A Bartuska, Ann %A Baste, Ivar Andreas %A Bilgin, Adem %A Brondizio, Eduardo %A Chan, Kai MA %A Figueroa, Viviana Elsa %A Duraiappah, Anantha %A Fischer, Markus %A Hill, Rosemary %A Koetz, Thomas %A Leadley, Paul %A Lyver, Philip %A Mace, Georgina M %A Martin-Lopez, Berta %A Okumura, Michiko %A Pacheco, Diego %A Pascual, Unai %A Pérez, Edgar Selvin %A Reyers, Belinda %A Roth, Eva %A Saito, Osamu %A Scholes, Robert John %A Sharma, Nalini %A Tallis, Heather %A Thaman, Randolph %A Watson, Robert %A Yahara, Tetsukazu %A Hamid, Zakri Abdul %A Akosim, Callistus %A Al-Hafedh, Yousef %A Allahverdiyev, Rashad %A Amankwah, Edward %A Asah, Stanley T %A Asfaw, Zemede %A Bartus, Gabor %A Brooks, L Anathea %A Caillaux, Jorge %A Dalle, Gemedo %A Darnaedi, Dedy %A Driver, Amanda %A Erpul, Gunay %A Escobar-Eyzaguirre, Pablo %A Failler, Pierre %A Fouda, Ali Moustafa Mokhtar %A Fu, Bojie %A Gundimeda, Haripriya %A Hashimoto, Shizuka %A Homer, Floyd %A Lavorel, Sandra %A Lichtenstein, Gabriela %A Mala, William Armand %A Mandivenyi, Wadzanayi %A Matczak, Piotr %A Mbizvo, Carmel %A Mehrdadi, Mehrasa %A Metzger, Jean Paul %A Mikissa, Jean Bruno %A Moller, Henrik %A Mooney, Harold A %A Mumby, Peter %A Nagendra, Harini %A Nesshover, Carsten %A Oteng-Yeboah, Alfred Apau %A Pataki, György %A Roué, Marie %A Rubis, Jennifer %A Schultz, Maria %A Smith, Peggy %A Sumaila, Rashid %A Takeuchi, Kazuhiko %A Thomas, Spencer %A Verma, Madhu %A Yeo-Chang, Youn %A Zlatanova, Diana %X

The first public product of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is its Conceptual Framework. This conceptual and analytical tool, presented here in detail, will underpin all IPBES functions and provide structure and comparability to the syntheses that IPBES will produce at different spatial scales, on different themes, and in different regions. Salient innovative aspects of the IPBES Conceptual Framework are its transparent and participatory construction process and its explicit consideration of diverse scientific disciplines, stakeholders, and knowledge systems, including indigenous and local knowledge. Because the focus on co-construction of integrative knowledge is shared by an increasing number of initiatives worldwide, this framework should be useful beyond IPBES, for the wider research and knowledge-policy communities working on the links between nature and people, such as natural, social and engineering scientists, policy-makers at different levels, and decision-makers in different sectors of society.

%B Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability %V 14 %P 1-16 %G eng %1 ne/l001322/1 %2 ne-l001322-1 %3 138 %4 Benin; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Equatorial Guinea; Ethiopia; Ghana; Kenya; Malawi; Namibia; Nigeria; Sierra Leone; South Africa; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000366330500002 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.cosust.2014.11.002 %M 1877-3435 %0 Journal Article %J PLos One %D 2015 %T Large-scale patterns of turnover and basal area change in Andean forests %A Baez, Selene %A Malizia, Agustina %A Carilla, Julieta %A Blundo, Cecilia %A Aguilar, Manuel %A Aguirre, Nikolay %A Aquirre, Zhofre %A Alvarez, Esteban %A Cuesta, Francisco %A Duque, Alvaro %A Farfan-Rios, William %A Garcia-Cabrera, Karina %A Grau, Ricardo %A Homeier, Jurgen %A Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo %A Malizia, Lucio R. %A Cruz, Omar Melo %A Osinaga, Oriana %A Phillips, Oliver L. %A Reynel, Carlos %A Silman, Miles R. %A Feeley, Kenneth J. %X

General patterns of forest dynamics and productivity in the Andes Mountains are poorly characterized. Here we present the first large-scale study of Andean forest dynamics using a set of 63 permanent forest plots assembled over the past two decades. In the North-Central Andes tree turnover (mortality and recruitment) and tree growth declined with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. In addition, basal area increased in Lower Montane Moist Forests but did not change in Higher Montane Humid Forests. However, at higher elevations the lack of net basal area change and excess of mortality over recruitment suggests negative environmental impacts. In North-Western Argentina, forest dynamics appear to be influenced by land use history in addition to environmental variation. Taken together, our results indicate that combinations of abiotic and biotic factors that vary across elevation gradients are important determinants of tree turnover and productivity in the Andes. More extensive and longer-term monitoring and analyses of forest dynamics in permanent plots will be necessary to understand how demographic processes and woody biomass are responding to changing environmental conditions along elevation gradients through this century.

%B PLos One %G eng %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %4 Ecuador; Peru %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0126594 %0 Working Publication %D 2015 %T Lassa fever and the politics of an emerging disease: The scope for One Health %A Wilkinson, A %X

This paper explores the politics of knowledge and disease control for Lassa fever, a zoonotic viral haemorrhagic fever which is endemic in parts of West Africa. The Lassa virus has been classified as a 'Category A' pathogen, meaning it is considered to be one of the world’s most dangerous organisms and a potential bioweapon. Unusually for a Category A pathogen it also causes endemic human disease with public health implications.

%I ESRC STEPS Centre %C www.steps-centre.org/publications %@ 978-1-78118-224-6 %G eng %K http://steps-centre.org/wp-content/uploads/Lassa-wp-2.pdf %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Habitat International %D 2015 %T Limits of policy and planning in peri-urban waterscapes: The case of Ghaziabad, Delhi, India %A Mehta, Lyla %A Karpouzoglou, Timothy %X

The notion of the waterscape has been proposed to capture the interconnectedness of economic, political, cultural and social processes embedded in water. More recently recognised, yet still relatively under-theorised are waterscapes that are 'in-between' the city and the periphery. This article focuses on pen-urban Delhi, specifically the area around Ghaziabad. We show that peri-urban waterscapes do not fit into existing urban or rural planning models because these same models largely fail to recognise the pen-urban interface as a distinct form of territorial development. As a result a diverse range of mobilisations around water relevant to the pen-urban poor are systematically undermined while power asymmetries that shape access to water remain unrecognised. Pen-urban spaces thus continue to be planned as if in a transition towards urban modernity despite the complex social, political, technological and cultural realities these spaces represent. The failure to address current limits of policy and planning in pen-urban waterscapes has long term implications for the resilience, sustainability and transformative adaptation of both city and periphery. Crown Copyright (c) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

%B Habitat International %I PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD %V 48 %P 159-168 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 4 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000356113200018 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.03.008 %M 0197-3975 %0 Journal Article %J Geology %D 2015 %T Linking reef ecology to island building: Parrotfish identified as major producers of island-building sediment in the Maldives %A Perry, C.T. %A Kench, P.S. %A O’Leary, M.J. %A Morgan, K.M. %A Januchowski-Hartley, F. %X

Reef islands are unique landforms composed entirely of sediment produced on the surrounding coral reefs. Despite the fundamental importance of these ecological-sedimentary links for island development and future maintenance, reef island sediment production regimes remain poorly quantified. Using census and sedimentary data from Vakkaru island (Maldives), a sand-dominated atoll interior island, we quantify the major sediment-generating habitats, the abundance of sediment producers in these habitats, and the rates and size fractions of sediment generated by different taxa. The estimated annual sediment production is 685,000 kg (or 370 m3), ~75% of which is produced on the narrow outer reef flat, despite composing only 21% of the total platform area. Approximately 65% of the platform acts solely as a sediment sink. Census data identify parrotfish as the major sediment producers, generating >85% of the 5.7 kg m–2 of new sand-grade sediment produced on the outer reef flat each year. Halimeda (macroalgae) produce a further 10%, most as gravel-grade material. Comparisons between production estimates and sedimentary data indicate that reef ecology and island sedimentology are tightly linked; reef flat and lagoon sediments are dominated by coral and Halimeda, although fine- to medium-grained coral sand is the dominant (~59%) island constituent. The generation of sediment suitable for maintaining this reef island is thus critically dependent on a narrow zone of high-productivity reef, but most especially on the maintenance of healthy parrotfish populations that can convert reef framework to sand-grade sediment.

%B Geology %V 43 %P 503-506 %G eng %N 6 %1 ne/k010484/1 %2 ne-k010484-1 %3 15 %4 Kenya; Mozambique %# 000358572600014 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1130/g36623.1 %0 Journal Article %J Nature Climate Change %D 2015 %T Livelihood resilience in the face of climate change %A Tanner, T %A Lewis, D %A Wrathall, D %A Bronen, R %A Cradock-Henry, N %A Huq, S %A Lawless, C %A Nawrotzki, R %A Prasad, V %A Rahman, M.A %A Alaniz, R %A King, K %A McNamara, K %A Nadiruzzaman, M %A Henry-Shepard, S %A Thomalla, F %X The resilience concept requires greater attention to human livelihoods if it is to address the limits to adaptation strategies and the development needs of the planet’s poorest and most vulnerable people. Although the concept of resilience is increasingly informing research and policy, its transfer from ecological theory to social systems leads to weak engagement with normative, social and political dimensions of climate change adaptation. A livelihood perspective helps to strengthen resilience thinking by placing greater emphasis on human needs and their agency, empowerment and human rights, and considering adaptive livelihood systems in the context of wider transformational changes. %B Nature Climate Change %V 1 %P 23-26 %G eng %1 fell-2014-106 %2 fell-2014-106 %3 24 %4 Bangladesh %# 000346513900012 %6 ESPA Fellowships %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1038/nclimate2431 %0 Journal Article %J Regional Environmental Change %D 2015 %T Livelihood responses to Lantana camara invasion and biodiversity change in southern India: application of an asset function framework %A Kent, Rebecca %A Dorward, Andrew %X

Natural resources play key roles as assets in the livelihoods of rural communities. However, the benefits of these assets in livelihoods are frequently conceived narrowly as income generating or vulnerability reducing. We contend that they have other important roles to play in poverty reduction and livelihood change. In this paper we use a case study of two ethnic communities in a village in southern India to investigate livelihood responses to change in forest biodiversity through an examination of changes in attributes of natural assets resulting from the invasion of Lantana camara and wider socio-economic change. The invasion of forest by Lantana has contributed to changes in the attributes and functions of four key natural assets: forest grazing, bamboo for basketry, Phoenix loureie for brooms, and wild yams. We observe that differences in households’ and individuals’ ability to substitute important functions of lost or declining assets affect their ability to adapt to changes in resource availability and attributes. Analysing changes in asset attributes for different user groups allows the social effects of environmental change to be disaggregated.

%B Regional Environmental Change %V 15 %P 353-364 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/i004149/1 %2 ne-i004149-1 %3 1 %4 Australia; India; South Africa %# 000347705300012 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s10113-014-0654-4 %M 1436-3798 %0 Report %D 2015 %T Making the links between woodlands and wellbeing: a multi-stakeholder approach %A Isilda Nhantumbo %A Pedro Zorilla Miras %X

The loss of woodland in Mozambique is more than an environmental issue. Choices about land use — whether made locally, provincially or nationally — affect the availability of water, firewood, fertile land and other ‘ecosystem services’ delivered by woodlands. When these services underpin food security and routes out of poverty, what happens to woodlands becomes as much about people. But if the links between land use and the wellbeing of rural communities aren’t recognised and agreed, how can policymakers balance the dual needs of human development and environmental stewardship? The ACES project brought local, provincial and national stakeholders together to identify how woodlands contribute to wellbeing, discuss why ecosystem services are changing, and look forward to future land use. We discuss the areas of agreement and difference that point to some necessary next steps.

%I International Institute for Environment and Development %C London %8 05/2015 %G eng %K http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/17297IIED.pdf %1 NE/K010395/1 %2 ne-k010395-1 %0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %D 2015 %T Mapping social-ecological systems: Identifying 'green-loop' and 'red-loop' dynamics based on characteristic bundles of ecosystem service use %A Hamann, Maike %A Biggs, Reinette %A Reyers, Belinda %X

We present an approach to identify and map social-ecological systems based on the direct use of ecosystem services by households. This approach builds on the premise that characteristic bundles of ecosystem service use represent integrated expressions of different underlying social-ecological systems. We test the approach in South Africa using national census data on the direct use of six provisioning services (freshwater from a natural source, firewood for cooking, firewood for heating, natural building materials, animal production, and crop production) at two different scales. Based on a cluster analysis, we identify three distinct ecosystem service bundles that represent social-ecological systems characterized by low, medium and high levels of direct ecosystem service use among households. We argue that these correspond to 'green-loop', 'transition' and 'red-loop' systems as defined by Cumming et al. (2014). When mapped, these systems form coherent spatial units that differ from systems identified by additive combinations of separate social and biophysical datasets, the most common method of mapping social-ecological systems to date. The distribution of the systems we identified is mainly determined by social factors, such as household income, gender of the household head, and land tenure, and only partly determined by the supply of natural resources. An understanding of the location and characteristic resource use dynamics of different social-ecological systems allows for policies to be better targeted at the particular sustainability challenges faced in different areas. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

%B Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %V 34 %P 218-226 %G eng %1 ne/l001322/1 %2 ne-l001322-1 %3 7 %4 Benin; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Equatorial Guinea; Ethiopia; Ghana; Kenya; Malawi; Namibia; Nigeria; Sierra Leone; South Africa; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000361582000019 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.008 %M 0959-3780 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Modelling hydrology in Himalayan catchments using the PERSiST model %A Futter, M.N. %A Whitehead, P.G. %A Sakar, S. %A Rodda, H. %A Crossman, J. %X

There are ongoing discussions about the appropriate level of complexity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff models. Simulations for operational hydrology, flood forecasting or nutrient transport all warrant different levels of complexity in the modelling approach. More complex model structures are appropriate for simulations of land-cover dependent nutrient transport while more parsimonious model structures may be adequate for runoff simulation. The appropriate level of complexity is also dependent on data availability. Here, we use PERSiST; a simple, semi-distributed dynamic rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit to simulate flows in the Upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We present two sets of simulations driven by single time series of daily precipitation and temperature using simple (A) and complex (B) model structures based on uniform and hydrochemically relevant land covers respectively. Models were compared based on ensembles of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. Equifinality was observed for parameters but not for model structures. Model performance was better for the more complex (B) structural representations than for parsimonious model structures. The results show that structural uncertainty is more important than parameter uncertainty. The ensembles of BIC statistics suggested that neither structural representation was preferable in a statistical sense. Simulations presented here confirm that relatively simple models with limited data requirements can be used to credibly simulate flows and water balance components needed for nutrient flux modelling in large, data-poor basins.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %V special issue in review %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 3 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300006 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/c4em00613e %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change %A Kay, S. %A Caesar, J. %A Wolf, J. %A Bricheno, L. %A Nicholls, R. J. %A Saiful Islam, A. K. M. %A Haque, A. %A Pardaens, A. %A Lowe, J. A. %X

Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3–15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end of this century.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %V 17 %P 1311 - 1322 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 11 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000357793300012 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/C4EM00683F %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Environmental Studies And Sciences %D 2015 %T Opportunities for improved promotion of ecosystem services in agriculture under the water-energy-food nexus %A Bell, A %A Matthews, N %A Zhang, W %X

In this study, we focus on water quality as a vehicle to illustrate the role that the water, energy, and food (WEF) Nexus perspective may have in promoting ecosystem services in agriculture. The mediation of water quality by terrestrial systems is a key ecosystem service for a range of actors (municipalities, fishers, industries, and energy providers) and is reshaped radically by agricultural activity. To address these impacts, many programs exist to promote improved land-use practices in agriculture; however, where these practices incur a cost or other burden to the farmer, adoption can be low unless some form of incentive is provided (as in a payment for ecosystem services (PES) program). Provision of such incentives can be a challenge to sustain in the long term, if there is not a clear beneficiary or other actor willing to provide them. Successfully closing the loop between impacts and incentives often requires identifying a measurable and valuable service with a clear central beneficiary that is impacted by the summative effects of the diffuse agricultural practices across the landscape. Drawing on cases from our own research, we demonstrate how the WEF Nexus perspective—by integrating non-point-source agricultural problems under well-defined energy issues—can highlight central beneficiaries of improved agricultural practice, where none may have existed otherwise.

%B Journal Of Environmental Studies And Sciences %G eng %1 ne/l001624/1 %2 ne-l001624-1 %4 Malawi %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s13412-016-0366-9 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health %D 2015 %T Organising a safe space for navigating social-ecological transformations to sustainability %A Pereira, Laura %A Karpouzoglou, Timothy %A Doshi, Samir %A Frantzeskaki, Niki %X

The need for developing socially just living conditions for the world's growing population whilst keeping human societies within a 'safe operating space' has become a modern imperative. This requires transformative changes in the dominant social norms, behaviours, governance and management regimes that guide human responses in areas such as urban ecology, public health, resource security (e.g., food, water, energy access), economic development and biodiversity conservation. However, such systemic transformations necessitate experimentation in public arenas of exchange and a deepening of processes that can widen multi-stakeholder learning. We argue that there is an emergent potential in bridging the sustainability transitions and resilience approaches to create new scientific capacity that can support large-scale social-ecological transformations (SETs) to sustainability globally, not just in the West. In this article, we elucidate a set of guiding principles for the design of a 'safe space' to encourage stronger interactions between these research areas and others that are relevant to the challenges faced. We envisage new opportunities for transdisciplinary collaboration that will develop an adaptive and evolving community of practice. In particular, we emphasise the great opportunity for engaging with the role of emerging economies in facilitating safe space experimentation.

%B International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health %I MDPI AG %V 12 %P 6027-6044 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 5 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000357268500020 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3390/ijerph120606027 %M 1660-4601 %0 Journal Article %J The Geographical Journal %D 2015 %T The paradox of poverty in rich ecosystems: impoverishment and development in the amazon of Brazil and Bolivia %A Ioris, Antonio %X

The article offers an examination of poverty and development in the Amazon, moving beyond the conventional view which places the blame on infrastructure deficiencies, economic isolation or institutional failures. It examines synergistically connected processes that form the persistent poverty-making geography of the Amazon region. The discussion is based on qualitative research conducted in two emblematic areas in Bolivia (Pando) and Brazil (Pará). The immediate and long-term causes of socioeconomic problems have been reinterpreted through a politico-ecological perspective required to investigate the apparent paradox of impoverished areas within rich ecosystems and abundant territorial resources. Empirical results demonstrate that, first, development is enacted through the exercise of hegemony over the entirety of socionature and, second, because poverty is the lasting materiality of development it cannot be alleviated through conventional mechanisms of economic growth based on socionatural hegemony. The main conclusion is that overcoming the imprint of poverty on Amazonian ecosystem entails a radical socioecological reaction. Additionally, the multiple and legitimate demands of low-income groups do not start from a state of hopeless destitution, but from a position of strength provided by their interaction with the forest ecosystems and with other comparable groups in the Amazon and elsewhere.

%B The Geographical Journal %G eng %1 ne/i004467/1 %2 ne-i004467-1 %4 Bolivia; Brazil %# 000384740500007 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1111/geoj.12124 %0 Journal Article %J Geoforum %D 2015 %T Participatory exclusion – Cyclone Sidr and its aftermath %A Nadiruzzaman, M %A Wrathall, D %X

'Nature does not discriminate, but humans do’ – this deliberately echoed sentiment in an area affected by Cyclone Sidr problematizes the practice of resource distribution in post-disaster situations. While relief and rehabilitation services have the objective of ‘building back better’, the possibility of elite-capture of resource distribution channels, jeopardizes both humanitarian initiatives as well as future development. This paper explores the political economy of post-Sidr interventions from an ethnographic account. The paper establishes links between power networks and access to resources in the study area, finding that marginality is a production of ongoing disaster interventions which favour the relatively well-off over the structurally poor. Ultimately, humanitarian assistance channels resources through established power networks, thus reinforcing them and producing uneven resilience among different social strata. This paper offers important insights for redesigning the distribution of humanitarian assistance.

%B Geoforum %V 64 %P 196-204 %G eng %1 fell-2014-106 %2 fell-2014-106 %3 3 %4 Bangladesh %# 000359887800020 %6 ESPA Fellowships %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.06.026 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2015 %T Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies %A Oteros-Rozas, Elisa %A Martin-Lopez, Berta %A Daw, Tim M. %A Bohensky, Erin L. %A Butler, James R. A. %A Hill, Rosemary %A Martin-Ortega, Julia %A Quinlan, Allyson %A Ravera, Federica %A Ruiz-Mallen, Isabel %A Thyresson, Matilda %A Mistry, Jayalaxshmi %A Palomo, Ignacio %A Peterson, Garry D. %A Plieninger, Tobias %A Waylen, Kerry A. %A Beach, Dylan M. %A Bohnet, Iris C. %A Hamann, Maike %A Hanspach, Jan %A Hubacek, Klaus %A Lavorel, Sandra %A Vilardy, Sandra P. %X

Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1) the context; (2) the original motivations and objectives; (3) the methodological approach; (4) the process; (5) the content of the scenarios; (6) the outputs of the research; and (7) the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

%B Ecology and Society %V 20 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/k010484/1 %2 ne-k010484-1 %3 14 %4 Kenya; Mozambique %# 000367628900025 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/ES-07985-200432 %M 1708-3087 %0 Journal Article %J Science %D 2015 %T Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet %A Steffen, Will %A Richardson, Katherine %A Rockstrom, Johan %A Cornell, Sarah E. %A Fetzer, Ingo %A Bennett, Elena M. %A Biggs, Reinette %A Carpenter, Stephen R. %A de Vries, Wim %A de Wit, Cynthia A. %A Folke, Carl %A Gerten, Dieter %A Heinke, Jens %A Mace, Georgina M. %A Persson, Linn M. %A Ramanathan, Veerabhadran %A Reyers, Belinda %A Sorlin, Sverker %X

The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.

%B Science %V 347 %P 736 %G eng %1 espa-res-001 %2 espa-res-001 %3 584 %4 Global %# 000349221300039 %6 Directorate Research %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1126/science.1259855 %0 Journal Article %J Science of the Total Environment %D 2015 %T Poverty alleviation strategies in eastern China lead to critical ecological dynamics %A Zhang, Ke %A Dearing, John A. %A Dawson, Terence P. %A Dong, Xuhui %A Yang, Xiangdong %A Zhang, Weiguo %X

Poverty alleviation linked to agricultural intensification has been achieved in many regions but there is often only limited understanding of the impacts on ecological dynamics. A central need is to observe long term changes in regulating and supporting services as the basis for assessing the likelihood of sustainable agriculture or ecological collapse. We show how the analyses of 55 time-series of social, economic and ecological conditions can provide an evolutionary perspective for the modern Lower Yangtze River Basin region since the 1950s with powerful insights about the sustainability of modern ecosystem services. Increasing trends in provisioning ecosystem services within the region over the past 60 years reflect economic growth and successful poverty alleviation but are paralleled by steep losses in a range of regulating ecosystem services mainly since the 1980s. Increasing connectedness across the social and ecological domains after 1985 points to a greater uniformity in the drivers of the rural economy. Regime shifts and heightened levels of variability since the 1970s in local ecosystem services indicate progressive loss of resilience across the region. Of special concern are water quality services that have already passed critical transitions in several areas. Viewed collectively, our results suggest that the regional social–ecological system passed a tipping point in the late 1970s and is now in a transient phase heading towards a new steady state. However, the long-term relationship between economic growth and ecological degradation shows no sign of decoupling as demanded by the need to reverse an unsustainable trajectory.

%B Science of the Total Environment %V 506–507 %P 164-181 %G eng %1 eirg-2011-166 %2 eirg-2011-166 %4 China %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.10.096 %M 0048-9697 %0 Journal Article %J PLoS ONE %D 2015 %T Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot %A Brown, Kerry A. %A Parks, Katherine E. %A Bethell, Colin A. %A Johnson, Steig E. %A Mulligan, Mark %X Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future. %B PLoS ONE %V 10 %P e0122721 %G eng %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %3 8 %4 Madagascar %# 000352588500051 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0122721 %M 1932-6203 %0 Journal Article %J Capitalism Nature Socialism %D 2015 %T The production of poverty and the poverty of production in the Amazon: Reflections from those at the sharp end of development %A Ioris, Antonio %X

Few regions in the world have given rise to as much politico-ecological controversy as the Amazon. Since the time of Francisco de Orellana (ca. 1511–1546) and his epic search for El Dorado, the Amazon has been known for an “extravagant” geography, immense challenges, and, potentially, even greater rewards. The region was considered the archetypical representation of the Garden of Eden by renaissance chroniclers and generations of explorers (Holanda 2000). Yet, after the economic boom resultant from highly profitable rubber production at the turn of the 20th century, there was an inescapable reversal to subsistence agriculture and barter economy (Bunker 1985). In the post-World War II period, the Amazon became one of the most disputed frontiers of Western modernity, a process that engulfed, but also recreated, territories, relationships, and peoples. Particularly in its Brazilian section — which comprises around 67 percent of the Amazon River Basin — new development- related initiatives were put into effect by the military dictatorship and resulted in an increasing conversion of catchments and localities into hotspots of intense commodity production. The promise of rapid enrichment, often combined with cultural estrangement and sheer fascination, provided once again the rationale for violent conquest, eviction of existing communities, and the expropriation of land, resources, and livelihoods. Hegemonic relations of production and reproduction have deliberately disregarded ecological limits and aggressively incorporated nature into the logic of commodity production exactly because of the money to be made from the privatization of collective ecosystems and territorial resources (Ioris 2007). Far from being politically neutral, the product of such changes has been primarily accumulated in the hands of a coalition held between traditional elites and emerging business sectors, endorsed by local and national public authorities.

%B Capitalism Nature Socialism %G eng %1 ne/i004467/1 %2 ne-i004467-1 %4 Bolivia; Brazil %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/10455752.2015.1058835 %0 Journal Article %J ICES Journal of Marine Science %D 2015 %T Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios %A Fernandes, Jose A. %A Kay, Susan %A Hoassain, Mostafa A.R. %A Ahmed, Munir %A Cheung, William W. L. %A Lázár, Attila N. %A Barange, Manuel %X

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national gross domestic product and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here, we develop and apply tools to project the long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high-resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca. 11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low-income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh exclusive economic zone by <10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices, we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed, catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared with the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of <20% compared with current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

%B ICES Journal of Marine Science %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 3 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000378640100009 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1093/icesjms/fsv217 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Projections of on-farm salinity in coastal Bangladesh %A Clarke, D. %A Williams, S. %A Jahiruddin, M. %A Parks, K. %A Salehin, M. %X

This paper quantifies the expected impacts of climate change, climate variability and salinity accumulation on food production in coastal Bangladesh during the dry season. This forms part of a concerted series of actions on agriculture and salinity in Bangladesh under the UK funded Ecosystems for Poverty Alleviation programme and the British Council INSPIRE scheme. The work was undertaken by developing simulation models for soil water balances, dry season irrigation requirements and the effectiveness of the monsoon season rainfall at leaching accumulated salts. Simulations were run from 1981 to 2098 using historical climate data and a daily climate data set based on the Met Office Hadley Centre HadRM3P regional climate model. Results show that inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability are key factors that affect the viability of dry season vegetable crop growing. By the end of the 21st century the dry season is expected to be 2-3 weeks longer than now (2014). Monsoon rainfall amounts will remain the same or possibly slightly increase but it will occur over a slightly shorter wet season. Expectations of sea level rise and additional saline intrusion into groundwater aquifers mean that dry season irrigation water is likely to become more saline by the end of the 21st century. A study carried out at Barisal indicates that irrigating with water at up to 4 ppt can be sustainable. Once the dry season irrigation water quality goes above 5 ppt, the monsoon rainfall is no longer able to leach the dry season salt deposits so salt accumulation becomes significant and farm productivity will reduce by as a much as 50%, threatening the livelihoods of farmers in this region.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 9 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300011 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/C4EM00682H %M 2050-7887 %0 Journal Article %J Research Ethics %D 2015 %T Providing ethical guidance for collaborative research in developing countries %A Morris, Nina %X Experience has shown that the application of ethical guidelines developed for research in developed countries to research in developing countries can be, and often is, impractical and raises a number of contentious issues. Various attempts have been made to provide guidelines more appropriate to the developing world context; however, to date these efforts have been dominated by the fields of bioscience, medical research and nutrition. There is very little advice available for those seeking to undertake collaborative social science or natural science research in developing countries and what is there tends to be held within disparate sources. Charting the development of a set of ethics documentation for future use by the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme research community, this paper outlines past and present attitudes towards ethics procedures amongst this community and suggests ways in which ethics procedures might be made more relevant and user-friendly to researchers working in this area. %B Research Ethics %G eng %1 espa-ethics-2011 %2 espa-ethics-2011 %6 Directorate Research %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1177/1747016115586759 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Rainfall runoff modelling of the Upper Ganga and Brahmaputra basins using PERSiST %A Futter, M.N %A Whitehead, P.G %A Sarka %A Sakar, S. %A Rodda, H. %A Crossman, J. %X

There are ongoing discussions about the appropriate level of complexity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff models. Simulations for operational hydrology, flood forecasting or nutrient transport all warrant different levels of complexity in the modelling approach. More complex model structures are appropriate for simulations of land-cover dependent nutrient transport while more parsimonious model structures may be adequate for runoff simulation. The appropriate level of complexity is also dependent on data availability. Here, we use PERSiST; a simple, semi-distributed dynamic rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit to simulate flows in the Upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We present two sets of simulations driven by single time series of daily precipitation and temperature using simple (A) and complex (B) model structures based on uniform and hydrochemically relevant land covers respectively. Models were compared based on ensembles of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. Equifinality was observed for parameters but not for model structures. Model performance was better for the more complex (B) structural representations than for parsimonious model structures. The results show that structural uncertainty is more important than parameter uncertainty. The ensembles of BIC statistics suggested that neither structural representation was preferable in a statistical sense. Simulations presented here confirm that relatively simple models with limited data requirements can be used to credibly simulate flows and water balance components needed for nutrient flux modelling in large, data-poor basins.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %V 17 %P 1070 - 1081 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 3 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300006 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1039/c4em00613e %0 Journal Article %J Regional Environmental Change %D 2015 %T Recent changes in ecosystem services and human well-being in the Bangladesh coastal zone %A Hossain, Md. Sarwar %A Dearing, John A. %A Rahman, M. M. %A Salehin, M. %X

This study takes an historical approach in order to establish how the form and function of the social-ecological system that represents the Bangladesh south-western coastal zone has changed over recent decades. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services and drivers are analysed to define the range of trends, the presence of change points, slow and fast variables and the significant drivers of change. Since the 1980s, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. As a result, the size of population below the poverty line has reduced by *17 %. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. Conversion of rice fields to shrimp farms is almost certainly a factor in increasing soil and surface water salinity. Most of the services experienced statistically significant change points between 1975 and 1980, and among the services, water availability, shrimp farming and maintenance of biodiversity appear to have passed tipping points. An environmental Kuznets curve analysis suggests that the point at which growing economic wealth feeds back into effective environmental protection has not yet been reached for water resources. Trends in indicators of ecosystem services and human well-being point to widespread non-stationary dynamics governed by slowly changing variables with an increased likelihood of systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. The results will feed into simulation models and strategies that can define alternative and sustainable paths for land management.

%B Regional Environmental Change %P 1-15 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 16 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000369005400013 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s10113-014-0748-z %M 1436-3798 %0 Journal Article %J Biological Conservation %D 2015 %T Research ethics: Assuring anonymity at the individual level may not be sufficient to protect research participants from harm %A St. John, F.A.V. %A Brockington, D. %A Bunnefeld, N. %A Duffy, R. %A Homewood, K. %A Jones, J.P.G. %A Keane, A. %A Milner-Gulland, E.J. %A Nuno, A. %A Razafimanahaka, J.H. %X

The recent special edition of Biological Conservation on Conservation Crime provided an opportunity to reflect on the growing use of specialised methods for asking sensitive questions in conservation. Such tools, including the Randomised Response Technique (RRT), are increasingly used to investigate rule breaking in conservation for example, hunting of protected species, use of illegal fishing gear, or other wildlife crimes.

%B Biological Conservation %G eng %1 ne/k010220/1 %2 ne-k010220-1 %3 1 %4 Madagascar %# 000375365300024 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.biocon.2016.01.025 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T A review of arsenic and its impacts in groundwater of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh %A Edmunds, W. M. %A Ahmed, K. M. %A Whitehead, P. G. %X

Arsenic in drinking water is the single most important environmental issue facing Bangladesh; between 35 and 77 million of its 156 million inhabitants are considered to be at risk from drinking As-contaminated water. This dominates the list of stress factors affecting health, livelihoods and the ecosystem of the delta region. There is a vast literature on the subject so this review provides a filter of the more important information available on the topic. The arsenic problem arises from the move in the 1980s and 1990s by international agencies to construct tube wells as a source of water free of pathogens, groundwater usually considered a safe source. Since arsenic was not measured during routine chemical analysis and also is difficult to measure at low concentrations it was not until the late 1990s that the widespread natural anomaly of high arsenic was discovered and confirmed. The problem was exacerbated by the fact that the medical evidence of arsenicosis only appears slowly. The problem arises in delta regions because of the young age of the sediments deposited by the GBM river system. The sediments contain minerals such as biotite which undergo slow "diagenetic" reactions as the sediments become compacted, and which, under the reducing conditions of the groundwater, release in the form of toxic As3+. The problem is restricted to sediments of Holocene age and groundwater of a certain depth (mainly 30-150 m), coinciding with the optimum well depth. The problem is most serious in a belt across southern Bangladesh, but within 50 m of the coast the problem is only minor because of use of deep groundwater; salinity in shallow groundwater here is the main issue for drinking water. The Government of Bangladesh adopted a National Arsenic Policy and Mitigation Action Plan in 2004 for providing arsenic safe water to all the exposed population, to provide medical care for those who have visible symptoms of arsenicosis. There is as yet no national monitoring program in place. Various mitigation strategies have been tested, but generally the numerous small scale technological remedies have proved unworkable at village level. The current statistics show that use of deep groundwater (below 150 m) is the main source of arsenic mitigation over most of the arsenic affected areas as well as rainwater harvesting in certain location.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 9 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300003 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/C4EM00673A %M 2050-7887 %0 Journal Article %J Natural Resources %D 2015 %T Seasonal changes in vegetation and land use %A Kamara, A %A Koroma, B.M %A Gogra, A.B %X

Lassa Fever is endemic to the eastern region of Sierra Leone. It is a haemorrhagic disease that is often transmitted from rats to humans and then human to humans. Ecological disturbances such as changes in land use involving conversion of natural ecosystems to agriculture, mining or for urban expansion are reported to bring humans into close contact with animals such as the Mastomys rat that carries the Lassa Fever virus thereby posing health problems. The nature and extent of such ecological disturbances or land use changes within areas known to be endemic to Lassa Fever are not clearly understood from a research context in Sierra Leone. This study was therefore undertaken to identify the pattern of changes in land use and cropping practices and their potential to bring humans into close interactions with the Mastomys rat that is the host for the Lassa Fever virus. Four communities were chosen for the study, two rural (Lalehun and Majihun) and two urban (Lambayama section in Kenema City and Largo Square section in Segbwema Town). Different vegetation and land use/cropping practices were identified and observations were made on the pattern of changes at different times in the cropping year. There were four common vegetation and cropping practices found in all communities: upland rice intercropping, old fallow, young fallow, and swamp rice cultivation. The study revealed the variations in land use patterns and cropping practices between urban and rural settlements. Agro-forestry practices such as perennial cash crops cacao and rubber plantations were more common in rural communities. The study also revealed that while fallow vegetation persisted in rural areas there had been expansion of settlements into old fallow vegetation indicating a greater threat to the persistence of natural ecosystem in urban than in rural settlements. These disturbances resulted in habitat fragmentation and increased the likelihood of contact between humans and animal species (e.g. Mastomys rat) associated with various habitats.

%B Natural Resources %V 6 %P 450-456 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.4236/nr.2015.67043 %0 Working Publication %D 2015 %T Sharing social data in multidisciplinary, multi-stakeholder research %A Valerie VandenEynden %A Kate Schreckenberg %A Louise Corti %X

There is an increasing drive for openness and sharing of data, with funders and other stakeholders expecting publicly-funded data to be available for further use. Science benefits from data being maximally available as a resource for new and future research and technological advances make it easier for digital information and data to be discoverable and accessible to a very wide audience. Equally, sharing information and data amongst stakeholders is fundamental in collaborative and multi-stakeholder projects. Yet sharing data collected from human participants (e.g. through surveys, questionnaires, interviews, focus groups, participatory methods, video) can present ethical challenges as they often contain personal or confidential information. In multi-disciplinary projects, the collection of social data in conjunction with geospatial information may make it very difficult or impossible to conceal the identity of participants or fieldwork locations. Appropriate procedures are needed to maximise opportunities for future use. This guide seeks to support researchers, consultants and evaluators in sharing their data widely by highlighting key considerations and providing helpful tips, from the planning stages of research and evaluation through to the possible deposit of data with a data repository.

%0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Simulating yield response of rice to salinity stress with the AquaCrop model %A Shahjahan Mondal, M %A Saleh, Abul Fazal M %A Abdur Razzaque Akanda, Md. %A Biswas, Sujit K %A Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md %A Zaman, Sinora %A Lázár, Attila N %A Clarke, Derek %X

The FAO AquaCrop model has been widely applied throughout the world to simulate crop responses to deficit water applications. However, its application to saline conditions is not yet reported, though saline soils are common in coastal areas. In this study, we parameterized and tested AquaCrop to simulate rice yield under different salinity regimes. The data and information required in the model were collected through a field experiment at the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur. The experiment was conducted with the BRRI Dhan28, a popular boro rice variety in Bangladesh, with five levels of saline water irrigation, three replicates for each level. In addition, field monitoring was carried out at Satkhira in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh to collect data and information based on farmers' practices and to further validate the model. The results indicated that the AquaCrop model with most of its default parameters could replicate the variation of rice yield with the variation of salinity reasonably well. The root mean square error and mean absolute error of the model yield were only 0.12 t per ha and 0.03 t per ha, respectively. The crop response versus soil salinity stress curve was found to be convex in shape with a lower threshold of 2 dS m-1, an upper threshold of 10 dS m-1 and a shape factor of 2.4. As the crop production system in the coastal belt of Bangladesh has become vulnerable to climate induced sea-level rise and the consequent increase in water and soil salinity, the AquaCrop would be a useful tool in assessing the potential impact of these future changes as well as other climatic parameters on rice yield in the coastal region.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %V 17 %P 1118-1126 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 3 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300010 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/C5EM00095E %0 Journal Article %J Parasites & Vectors %D 2015 %T Sleeping sickness and its relationship with development and biodiversity conservation in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia %A Anderson, Neil E. %A Mubanga, Joseph %A Machila, Noreen %A Atkinson, Peter M. %A Dzingirai, Vupenyu %A Welburn, Susan C. %X

The Luangwa Valley has a long historical association with Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) and is a recognised geographical focus of this disease. It is also internationally acclaimed for its high biodiversity and contains many valuable habitats. Local inhabitants of the valley have developed sustainable land use systems in co-existence with wildlife over centuries, based on non-livestock keeping practices largely due to the threat from African Animal Trypanosomiasis. Historical epidemics of human sleeping sickness have influenced how and where communities have settled and have had a profound impact on development in the Valley. Historical attempts to control trypanosomiasis have also had a negative impact on conservation of biodiversity. Centralised control over wildlife utilisation has marginalised local communities from managing the wildlife resource. To some extent this has been reversed by the implementation of community based natural resource management programmes in the latter half of the 20th century and the Luangwa Valley provides some of the earliest examples of such programmes. More recently, there has been significant uncontrolled migration of people into the mid-Luangwa Valley driven by pressure on resources in the eastern plateau region, encouragement from local chiefs and economic development in the tourist centre of Mfuwe. This has brought changing land-use patterns, most notably agricultural development through livestock keeping and cotton production. These changes threaten to alter the endemically stable patterns of HAT transmission and could have significant impacts on ecosystem health and ecosystem services. In this paper we review the history of HAT in the context of conservation and development and consider the impacts current changes may have on this complex social-ecological system. We conclude that improved understanding is required to identify specific circumstances where win-win trade-offs can be achieved between the conservation of biodiversity and the reduction of disease in the human population.

%B Parasites & Vectors %V 8 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 5 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000353264700001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1186/S13071-015-0827-0 %M 1756-3305 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2015 %T The social distribution of provisioning forest ecosystem services: Evidence and insights from Odisha, India %A Lakerveld, Roan P. %A Lele, S. %A Crane, T. A. %A Fortuin, K. P. J. %A Springate-Baginski, O. %X

Ecosystem services research has highlighted the importance of ecosystems for human well-being. Most of the research, however, focuses only on aggregate human well-being and disregards distributional and equity issues associated with ecosystem services. We review approaches from institutional economics, political ecology and the social sciences in order to develop an analytical framework to understand the distribution of benefits from ecosystems across different socio-cultural groups and the underlying social processes involved. We then present a case study of the distribution of provisioning ecosystem services in a forest-fringe village in Odisha, India. Our analysis shows the unequal distribution of ecosystem services and complex social processes that determine these. We identify the determining factors and processes to include: differential resource-specific needs, different cultural identities, differentiated social status and bargaining power, exclusionary and inclusionary social practices, differential access. Our analysis proves therefore that aggregation of forest ecosystem benefits obscures crucially important patterns of distribution, and the underlying social processes that determine these. This also demonstrates the necessity of applying social science frameworks in such analyses. Our study also shows that most ecosystem services are co-produced through both ecosystem processes and social actions, and so their assessment cannot be separated from the social context in which they are embedded. In conclusion we recommend that ecosystem services research engages more with process-oriented, context-specific and integrated approaches, based on a recognition of the complexity of social-ecological realities. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (hap:creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

%B Ecosystem Services %I ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV %V 14 %P 56-66 %G eng %N 9 %1 ne/i004661/1 %2 ne-i004661-1 %3 9 %4 India %# 000363666900007 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.04.001 %M 2212-0416 %0 Journal Article %J Sustainability Science %D 2015 %T Soil salinity, household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh %A Szabo, Sylvia %A Hossain, Md Sarwar %A Adger, W. Neil %A Matthews, Zoe %A Ahmed, Sayem %A Lázár, Attila N %A Ahmad, Sate %X

As a creeping process, salinisation represents a significant long-term environmental risk in coastal and deltaic environments. Excess soil salinity may exacerbate existing risks of food insecurity in densely populated tropical deltas, which is likely to have a negative effect on human and ecological sustainability of these regions and beyond. This study focuses on the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and uses data from the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the Soil Resource Development Institute to investigate the effect of soil salinity and wealth on household food security. The outcome variables are two widely used measures of food security: calorie availability and house- hold expenditure on food items. The main explanatory variables tested include indicators of soil salinity and household-level socio-economic characteristics. The results of logistic regression show that in unadjusted models, soil salinisation has a significant negative effect on household food security. However, this impact becomes statistically insignificant when households’ wealth is taken into account. The results further suggest that education and remittance flows, but not gender or working status of the household head, are significant predictors of food insecurity in the study area. The findings indicate the need to focus scholarly and policy attention on reducing wealth inequalities in tropical deltas in the context of the global sustainable deltas initiative and the proposed Sustainable Development Goals.

%B Sustainability Science %P 1-11 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 6 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000374329900004 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s11625-015-0337-1 %M 1862-4065 %0 Journal Article %J Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %D 2015 %T Stakeholder narratives on trypanosomiasis, their effect on policy and the scope for One Health %A Grant, C %A Anderson, N %A Machila, N %X

This paper explores the framings of trypanosomiasis, a widespread and potentially fatal zoonotic disease transmitted by tsetse flies (Glossina species) affecting both humans and livestock. This is a country case study focusing on the political economy of knowledge in Zambia. It is a pertinent time to examine this issue as human population growth and other factors have led to migration into tsetse-inhabited areas with little historical influence from livestock. Disease transmission in new human-wildlife interfaces such as these is a greater risk, and opinions on the best way to manage this are deeply divided.

%B Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 2 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000368345100025 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004241 %0 Book Section %D 2015 %T Struggles over carbon in the Zambezi Valley: the case of Kariba REDD in Hurungwe, Zimbabwe %A Dzingirai, Vupenyu %A Mangwanya, Lindiwe %X Experiments to deal with climate change are presently unfolding in Zimbabwe. The Kariba Carbon REDD Project (KCRP) is one such experiment. In order to explore whether these initiatives are successful in their dual aims of reduced deforestation and poverty, we need to trace backwards and see how such experiments are constructed and presented, and ask who ultimately wins and who loses out. For such experiments come on the back of a long history of related environmental interventions, where questions of equity and disenfranchisement have been raised. These concerns are at the heart of this chapter. %I Routledge %@ 9781138824836 %G eng %K https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781317579984/chapters/10.4324%2F9781315740416-15 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J World Journal Of Engineering And Technology %D 2015 %T Sundarban as a buffer against storm surge flooding %A Sakib, M %A Nihal, F %A Haque, A %A Rahman, M %A Ali, M %X

Sundarban, the largest mangrove forest in the world, is known to act as a buffer against the cyclone and storm surge. Theoretically, Sundarban absorbs the initial thrust of the wind and acts to “resist” the storm surge flooding. The role of Sundarban was evident during the cyclone Sidr when the Sundarban solely defended the initial thrust of the cyclonic wind and the resulting storm surge inundation. In doing this, Sundarban sacrificed 30% of its plant habitats. Although no scientific study has yet been conducted, it is generally believed that Sundarban will continuously play its role as a buffer against the cyclone when landfall of the cyclone is at or close to the Sundarban. Considering these facts, the present study mainly focused on a scientific insight into the role of Sundarban as a buffer against the present-day cyclone and storm surge and also its probable role on the impacts of future storms of similar nature but with different landfall locations. The Delft 3D dashboard and flow model are applied to compute the resulting inundation due to cyclone induced storm surge. The results show that Sundarban indeed acts as a buffer against the storm surge inundation when cyclone landfall is at or close to Sundarban.

%B World Journal Of Engineering And Technology %V 3 %P 59-64 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.4236/wjet.2015.33C009 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %D 2015 %T Temperature and precipitation projections over Bangladesh and the upstream Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna systems %A Caesar, J %A Janes, T %A Lindsay, A %A Bhaskaran, B %X

South Asia is a region of complex atmospheric dynamics and therefore changes resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, combined with existing vulnerability to extreme weather events such as flooding, could put the region at particular risk from climate change. However, current climate projections for the region show a range of uncertainty, particularly in terms of changes in the variability and extremes of precipitation. Focusing on Bangladesh and the region encompassing parts of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins, we aim to explore and quantify climate model uncertainty in climate change projections for the 21st century. We use results from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble of projections from a global climate model which have been used to drive a higher resolution (25 km) regional climate model over the south Asia region from 1971 to 2099. The range of temperature and precipitation responses across the ensemble are assessed including representation of the annual cycle, trends, and changes in precipitation extremes. The 17 ensemble members consistently simulate increasing annual mean temperatures by 2100 compared with present day, ranging between 2.6 o C and 4.8 o C. Additionally, all ensemble members indicate increasing annual precipitation by 2100 of between around 8% and 28%, though with interdecadal variability which results in one ensemble member showing a slight decrease in precipitation in the mid-century period. The frequency of light precipitation events is projected to decrease in the future, but with an increase in the frequency of heavy events. Three members of the climate model ensemble, representing a range of projected climate outcomes, have been selected for use in further impacts modelling for the region.

%B Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts %V 17 %P 1047 - 1056 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 14 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000356057300004 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1039/c4em00650j %0 Journal Article %J Conservation & Society %D 2015 %T Towards an explicit justice framing of the social impacts of conservation %A Martin, Adrian %A Akol, Anne %A Gross-Camp, Nicole %X

This paper proposes that biodiversity conservation practice will benefit from assessment of environmental justice outcomes, especially in contexts of poverty and social marginalisation. Whilst there is an existing body of work that implicitly considers the justices and injustices arising from biodiversity conservation interventions, we suggest that a more explicit justice assessment might complement this work. We develop some general guidelines for such assessment, drawing on traditions of social and environmental justice, highlighting the importance of considering two types of justice outcome: distribution and recognition. We note the non-equivalence of these different justice values, implying that they cannot be traded-off against each other. We try out these guidelines through a case study of the Bwindi Impenetrable National Park in Uganda. We find that the assessment helps us to identify intolerable social impacts of conservation, notably failures to adequately address the long-term impoverishment and domination of the indigenous Batwa people, and offers constructive insight for how conservation can better align with the need for environmental justice.

%B Conservation & Society %V 13(2) %P 166-178 %G eng %1 ne/i003282/1 %2 ne-i003282-1 %3 4 %4 China; India; Uganda %# 000361056800005 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.4103/0972-4923.164200 %0 Journal Article %J Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %D 2015 %T Using modelling to disentangle the relative contributions of zoonotic and anthroponotic transmission: the case of Lassa fever %A Lo Iacono, G. %A Cunningham, A. A. %A Fichet-Calvet, E. %A Garry, R. F. %A Grant, D. S. %A Khan, S. H. %A Leach, M. %A Moses, L. M. %A Schieffelin, J. S. %A Shaffer, J. G. %A Webb, C. T. %A Wood, J. L. N. %X

Background:

Zoonotic infections, which transmit from animals to humans, form the majority of new human pathogens. Following zoonotic transmission, the pathogen may already have, or may acquire, the ability to transmit from human to human. With infections such as Lassa fever (LF), an often fatal, rodent-borne, hemorrhagic fever common in areas of West Africa, rodent-to-rodent, rodent-to-human, human-to-human and even human-to-rodent transmission patterns are possible. Indeed, large hospital-related outbreaks have been reported. Estimating the proportion of transmission due to human-to-human routes and related patterns (e.g. existence of super-spreaders), in these scenarios is challenging, but essential for planned interventions.

Methodology/Principal Findings:

Here, we make use of an innovative modeling approach to analyze data from published outbreaks and the number of LF hospitalized patients to Kenema Government Hospital in Sierra Leone to estimate the likely contribution of human-to-human transmission. The analyses show that almost 20% of the cases at KGH are secondary cases arising from human-to-human transmission. However, we found much of this transmission is associated with a disproportionally large impact of a few individuals ('super-spreaders'), as we found only 5% of human cases result in an effective reproduction number (i.e. the average number of secondary cases per infectious case) >1, with a maximum value up to 12.

Conclusions/Significance:

This work explains the discrepancy between the sizes of reported LF outbreaks and a clinical perception that human-to-human transmission is low. Future assessment of risks of LF and infection control guidelines should take into account the potentially large impact of super-spreaders in human-to-human transmission. Our work highlights several neglected topics in LF research, the occurrence and nature of super-spreading events and aspects of social behavior in transmission and detection.

%B Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %V 9 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 15 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000349318100018 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/Journal.Pntd.0003398 %M 1935-2735 %0 Journal Article %J Asian and Pacific Migration Journal %D 2015 %T Variations in village migration profiles in rural China: An analysis based on the Second National Agricultural Census data %A Wu, Bin %A Robinson, Bernadette %A Long, Wenjin %X

Relatively little attention is paid to variations in rural migration at the village level, even though labor-supplying villages present considerable diversity in economic and development profiles. This paper examines the relationships between labor and household migration at the village level and the factors associated with different migration patterns through an analysis of data from China’s Second National Agricultural Census. The study identified four types of village migration profiles based on labor and household migration data from 4,482 villages in 10 counties across five provinces. The key characteristics of four types of village migration profiles are highlighted and implications for researchers and policy-makers are discussed.

%B Asian and Pacific Migration Journal %V 24(2) %P 160 - 1486 %G eng %1 ne/g008280/1 %2 ne-g008280-1 %3 1 %4 China %# 000355857800002 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1177/0117196815579954 %0 Journal Article %J Global Change Biology Bioenergy %D 2015 %T Water for small-scale biogas digesters in sub-Saharan Africa %A Bansal, V %A Tumwesige, V %A Smith, J %X

Biogas could provide a more sustainable energy source than wood fuels for rural households in sub-Saharan African. However, functioning of biogas digesters can be limited in areas of low water availability. The water required is approximately 50 dm3 day-1 for each cow and 10 dm3 day-1 for each pig providing manure to the digester, or 25 (±6) dm3 day-1 for each person in the household, using a digester volume of 1.3 (±0.3) m3 capita-1. Here, we consider the potential of domestic water recycling, rainwater harvesting, and aquaculture to supply the water needed for digestion in different countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Domestic water recycling was found to be important in every country but was usually insufficient to meet the requirements of the digester, with households in 72% of countries need to collect additional water. Rooftop rainwater harvesting also has an important role, iron roofs being more effective than thatched roofs at collecting water. However, even with an iron roof, the size of roof commonly found in sub-Saharan Africa (15 to 40 m2) is too small to collect sufficient water, requiring an extra area (in m2) for each person of (R/100) (where R is the rainfall in mm). If there is a local market for fish, stocking a pond with tilapia, fed on plankton growing on bioslurry from the digester, could provide an important source of additional income and hold the water required by the digester. In areas where rainfall is low and seasonal, the fishpond might be stocked only in the rainy season, allowing the pond to be covered during the dry period to reduce evaporation. If evaporative losses (E in mm) exceed rainfall, an extra catchment area is needed to maintain the water level in the pond, equivalent to approximately (1.5 × ((E-R)/R)) m2 for each person in the household

%B Global Change Biology Bioenergy %P n/a-n/a %G eng %1 ne/k010441/1 %2 ne-k010441-1 %4 Ethiopia; Uganda %# 000393589600006 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/gcbb.12339 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Modelling & Software %D 2015 %T Web technologies for environmental Big Data %A Vitolo, Claudia %A Elkhatib, Yehia %A Reusser, Dominik %A Macleod, Christopher J. A. %A Buytaert, Wouter %X

Recent evolutions in computing science and web technology provide the environmental community with continuously expanding resources for data collection and analysis that pose unprecedented challenges to the design of analysis methods, workflows, and interaction with data sets. In the light of the recent UK Research Council funded Environmental Virtual Observatory pilot project, this paper gives an overview of currently available implementations related to web-based technologies for processing large and heterogeneous datasets and discuss their relevance within the context of environmental data processing, simulation and prediction. We found that, the processing of the simple datasets used in the pilot proved to be relatively straightforward using a combination of R, RPy2, PyWPS and PostgreSQL. However, the use of NoSQL databases and more versatile frameworks such as OGC standard based implementations may provide a wider and more flexible set of features that particularly facilitate working with larger volumes and more heterogeneous data sources. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

%B Environmental Modelling & Software %V 63 %P 185-198 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %3 36 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000347362900015 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.10.007 %M 1364-8152 %0 Journal Article %J Climatic Change %D 2014 %T Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates %A Ometto, JeanPierre %A Aguiar, Ana Paula %A Assis, Talita %A Soler, Luciana %A Valle, Pedro %A Tejada, Graciela %A Lapola, David M %A Meir, Patrick %X

As land use change (LUC), including deforestation, is a patchy process, estimating the impact of LUC on carbon emissions requires spatially accurate underlying data on biomass distribution and change. The methods currently adopted to estimate the spatial variation of above- and below-ground biomass in tropical forests, in particular the Brazilian Amazon, are usually based on remote sensing analyses coupled with field datasets, which tend to be relatively scarce and often limited in their spatial distribution. There are notable differences among the resulting biomass maps found in the literature. These differences subsequently result in relatively high uncertainties in the carbon emissions calculated from land use change, and have a larger impact when biomass maps are coded into biomass classes referring to specific ranges of biomass values. In this paper we analyze the differences among recently published biomass maps of the Amazon region, including the official information used by the Brazilian government for its communication to the United Nation Framework on Climate Change Convention of the United Nations. The estimated average pre-deforestation biomass in the four maps, for the areas of the Amazon region that had been deforested during the 1990–2009 period, varied from 205±32 Mg ha-1 during 1990–1999, to 216±31 Mg ha-1 during 2000–2009. The biomass values of the deforested areas in 2011 were between 7 and 24 % higher than for the average deforested areas during 1990–1999, suggesting that although there was variation in the mean value, deforestation was tending to occur in increasingly carbon dense areas, with consequences for carbon emissions. To summarize, our key findings were: (i) the current maps of Amazonian biomass show substantial variation in both total biomass and its spatial distribution; (ii) carbon emissions estimates from deforestation are highly dependent on the spatial distribution of biomass as determined by any single biomass map, and on the deforestation process itself; (iii) future deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is likely to affect forests with higher biomass than those deforested in the past, resulting in smaller reductions in carbon dioxide emissions than expected purely from the recent reductions in deforestation rates; and (iv) the current official estimate of carbon emissions from Amazonian deforestation is probably overestimated, because the recent loss of higher-biomass forests has not been taken into account.

%B Climatic Change %V 124 %P 545-560 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 11 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000337146500007 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s10584-014-1058-7 %M 0165-0009 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2014 %T Analysis of ecosystem services provision in the Colombian Amazon using participatory research and mapping techniques %A Ramirez-Gomez, Sara O. I. %A Torres-Vitolas, Carlos A. %A Schreckenberg, Kate %A Honzak, Miroslav %A Cruz-Garcia, Gisella S. %A Willcock, Simon %A Palacios, Erwin %A Pérez-Miñana, Elena %A Verweij, Pita A. %A Poppy, Guy M. %X

Over the last two decades indigenous peoples in the lower Caquetá River basin in Colombia have experienced detrimental changes in the provision of important ecosystem services in ways that have significant implications for the maintenance of their traditional livelihoods. To assess these changes we conducted eight participatory mapping activities and convened 22 focus group discussions. We focused the analysis on two types of change: (1) changes in the location of ecosystem services provisioning areas and (2) changes in the stock of ecosystem services. The focal ecosystem services include services such as provision of food, raw materials and medicinal resources. Results from the study show that in the past two decades the demand for food and raw materials has intensified and, as a result, locations of provisioning areas and the stocks of ecosystem services have changed. We found anecdotal evidence that these changes correlate well with socio-economic factors such as greater need for income generation, change in livelihood practices and consumption patterns. We discuss the use of participatory mapping techniques in the context of marginalized and data-poor regions. We also show how this kind of information can strengthen existing ecosystem-based management strategies used by indigenous peoples in the Colombian Amazon.

%B Ecosystem Services %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %3 12 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000363666400010 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.12.009 %M 2212-0416 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Policy %D 2014 %T Assessing equity in national legal frameworks for REDD plus : The case of Indonesia %A Ituarte-Lima, Claudia %A McDermott, Constance L. %A Mulyani, Mari %X

Schemes for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and enhancing carbon stocks (REDD+) have raised concerns about their effects on forest communities and social equity more generally. National legal frameworks play a critical role in mediating these concerns within different country contexts, from the definition of fundamental constitutional rights to the articulation of specific REDD+ legislation. However, the complexity of REDD+ and its associated legal frameworks makes assessing the balance of rights, responsibilities, benefits and costs challenging indeed. This paper draws on a case study of Indonesia to illustrate how the application of an equity framework can help navigate this complexity.

%B Environmental Science & Policy %V 44 %P 291-300 %G eng %N 10 %1 ne/i00341x/1 %2 ne-i00341x-1 %3 8 %4 Bolivia; Cambodia; Costa Rica; Thailand; Uganda %# 000343839600025 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.04.003 %M 1462-9011 %0 Journal Article %J Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research %D 2014 %T The business case for One Health %A Grace, Delia %X

This article outlines a pathway to develop the business case for One Health. It describes the origin and development of One Health and then identifies five potential areas where One Health can add value and reduce costs. These are: (1) sharing health resources between the medical and veterinary sectors; (2) controlling zoonoses in animal reservoirs; (3) early detection and response to emerging diseases; (4) prevention of pandemics; and (5) generating insights and adding value to health research and development. Examples are given for each category along with preliminary estimates of the potential savings from adopting the One Health approach. The literature reviewed suggests that one dollar invested in One Health can generate five dollars worth of benefits and a global investment of US$ 25 billion over 10 years could generate benefits worth at least US$125bn. Conservation implications: the time has come to make the bigger case for massive investment in One Health in order to transform the management of neglected and emerging zoonoses and to save the lives of millions of people and hundreds of millions of animals whose production supports and nourishes billions of impoverished people per annum.

%B Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research %V 81 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 9 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000345393300008 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.4102/ojvr.v81i2.725 %M 0030-2465 %0 Journal Article %J Frontiers in Earth Science %D 2014 %T Citizen science in hydrology and water resources: opportunities for knowledge generation, ecosystem service management, and sustainable development %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Zulkafli, Zed %A Grainger, Sam %A Acosta, Luis %A Chanie Alemie, Tilashwork %A Bastiaensen, Johan %A De Bièvre, Bert %A Bhusal, Jagat %E Clark, Julian %E Dewulf, Art %E Foggins, Marc %E Hannah, David M. %E Hergarten, Christian %E Isaeva, Aiganysh %E Karpouzoglou, Timos %E Pandeya, Bhopal %E Paudel, Deepak %E Sharma, Keshav %E Steenhuis, Tammo %E Tilahun, Seifu %E Van Hecken, Gert %E Zhumanova, Munavar %X

The participation of the general public in the research design, data collection and interpretation process together with scientists is often referred to as citizen science. While citizen science itself has existed since the start of scientific practice, developments in sensing technology, data processing and visualization, and communication of ideas and results, are creating a wide range of new opportunities for public participation in scientific research. This paper reviews the state of citizen science in a hydrological context and explores the potential of citizen science to complement more traditional ways of scientific data collection and knowledge generation for hydrological sciences and water resources management. Although hydrological data collection often involves advanced technology, the advent of robust, cheap, and low-maintenance sensing equipment provides unprecedented opportunities for data collection in a citizen science context. These data have a significant potential to create new hydrological knowledge, especially in relation to the characterization of process heterogeneity, remote regions, and human impacts on the water cycle. However, the nature and quality of data collected in citizen science experiments is potentially very different from those of traditional monitoring networks. This poses challenges in terms of their processing, interpretation, and use, especially with regard to assimilation of traditional knowledge, the quantification of uncertainties, and their role in decision support. It also requires care in designing citizen science projects such that the generated data complement optimally other available knowledge. Lastly, using 4 case studies from remote mountain regions we reflect on the challenges and opportunities in the integration of hydrologically-oriented citizen science in water resources management, the role of scientific knowledge in the decision-making process, and the potential contestation to established community institutions posed by co-generation of new knowledge.

%B Frontiers in Earth Science %V 2 %G eng %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3389/feart.2014.00026 %M 2296-6463 %0 Journal Article %J Ecopersia %D 2014 %T Climate change induced water conflict in the Himalayas : A case study from Mustang, Nepal %A Bhusal, J %A Subedi, B %X

Water has remained at the centre of human livelihoods from the beginning of civilization. Civilization enriched mostly on the fertile plains and river valleys. In time, people began migrating to highland slopes where there was easy access to water. Two villages in the Mustang region of Nepal were considered for research to drill into the causes of conflicts on water rights and shares. Peoples' perceptions, traditional practices and field evidences from those two villages were collected and analyzed. No evidence was found of conflicts concerning water access and rights between the two villages over a long period of time (until 200 to 300 years previously). When the natural hydrological process derailed, however, people felt the effects of decreasing agriculrual output and pasture due to scarce water. Worsening livelihoods reflected the conflicts over water in the area. Communities were not only demanding greater portions of water shares but were also claiming exclusive right over water sources. The inherent cause of the conflict was attributed to climate change, which appeared through drying springs and changing nature of hydrological cycles.

%B Ecopersia %V 2 %P 585 - 595 %G eng %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %D 2014 %T Creating win-wins from trade-offs? Ecosystem services for human well-being: A meta-analysis of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in the real world %A Howe, Caroline %A Suich, Helen %A Vira, Bhaskar %A Mace, Georgina M. %X Ecosystem services can provide a wide range of benefits for human well-being, including provisioning, regulating and cultural services and benefitting both private and public interests in different sectors of society. Biophysical, economic and social factors all make it unlikely that multiple needs will be met simultaneously without deliberate efforts, yet while there is still much interest in developing win-win outcomes there is little understanding of what is required for them to be achieved. We analysed outcomes in a wide range of case studies where ecosystem services had been used for human well-being. Using systematic mapping of the literature from 2000 to 2013, we identified 1324 potentially relevant reports, 92 of which were selected for the review, creating a database of 231 actual or potential recorded trade-offs and synergies. The analysis of these case studies highlighted significant gaps in the literature, including: a limited geographic distribution of case studies, a focus on provisioning as opposed to nonprovisioning services and a lack of studies exploring the link between ecosystem service trade-offs or synergies and the ultimate impact on human well-being. Trade-offs are recorded almost three times as often as synergies and the analysis indicates that there are three significant indicators that a trade-off will occur: at least one of the stakeholders having a private interest in the natural resources available, the involvement of provisioning ecosystem services and at least one of the stakeholders acting at the local scale. There is not, however, a generalisable context for a win-win, indicating that these trade-off indicators, although highlighting where a trade-off may occur do not indicate that it is inevitable. Taking account of why trade-offs occur (e.g. from failures in management or a lack of accounting for all stakeholders) is more likely to create win-win situations than planning for a win-win from the outset. Consequently, taking a trade-offs as opposed to a win-win approach, by having an awareness of and accounting for factors that predict a trade-off (private interest, provisioning versus other ES, local stakeholder) and the reasons why trade-offs are often the outcome, it may be possible to create the synergies we seek to achieve. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). %B Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %V 28 %P 263-275 %G eng %1 espa-res-001 %2 espa-res-001 %3 66 %4 Global %# 000343839100023 %6 Directorate Research %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.005 %M 0959-3780 %0 Journal Article %J PLoS One %D 2014 %T Decadal trends and common dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal characteristics of the African Great Lakes %A Loiselle, Steven %A Cozar, Andres %A Adgo, Enyew %A Ballatore, Thomas %A Chavula, Geoffrey %A Descy, Jean Pierre %A Harper, David M. %A Kansiime, Frank %A Kimirei, Ismael %A Langenberg, Victor %A Ma, Ronghua %A Sarmento, Hugo %A Odada, Eric %X

The Great Lakes of East Africa are among the world's most important freshwater ecosystems. Despite their importance in providing vital resources and ecosystem services, the impact of regional and global environmental drivers on this lacustrine system remains only partially understood. We make a systematic comparison of the dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal properties of thirteen of the largest African lakes between 2002 and 2011. Lake surface temperatures had a positive trend in all Great Lakes outside the latitude of 0 degrees to 8 degrees south, while the dynamics of those lakes within this latitude range were highly sensitive to global inter-annual climate drivers (i.e. El Nino Southern Oscillation). Lake surface temperature dynamics in nearly all lakes were found to be sensitive to the latitudinal position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Phytoplankton dynamics varied considerably between lakes, with increasing and decreasing trends. Intra-lake differences in both surface temperature and phytoplankton dynamics occurred for many of the larger lakes. This inter-comparison of bio-optical and thermal dynamics provides new insights into the response of these ecosystems to global and regional drivers.

%B PLoS One %I Public Library of Science %V 9 %P e93656 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/i003266/1 %2 ne-i003266-1 %3 4 %4 Burundi; Congo, Dem. Rep; Congo, Rep.; Ethiopia; Kenya; Malawi; Mozambique; Rwanda; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000334105000087 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0093656 %M 1932-6203 %0 Journal Article %J Physiologia Plantarum %D 2014 %T Dietary mineral supplies in Africa %A Joy, Edward J. M. %A Ander, E. Louise %A Young, Scott D. %A Black, Colin R. %A Watts, Michael J. %A Chilimba, Allan D. C. %A Chilima, Benson %A Siyame, Edwin W. P. %A Kalimbira, Alexander A. %A Hurst, Rachel %A Fairweather-Tait, Susan J. %A Stein, Alexander J. %A Gibson, Rosalind S. %A White, Philip J. %A Broadley, Martin R. %X

Dietary micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) are widespread, yet their prevalence can be difficult to assess. Here, we estimate MND risks due to inadequate intakes for seven minerals in Africa using food supply and composition data, and consider the potential of food-based and agricultural interventions. Food Balance Sheets (FBSs) for 46 countries were integrated with food composition data to estimate per capita supply of calcium (Ca), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), iodine (I), magnesium (Mg), selenium (Se) and zinc (Zn), and also phytate. Deficiency risks were quantified using an estimated average requirement (EAR) 'cut-point' approach. Deficiency risks are highest for Ca (54% of the population), followed by Zn (40%), Se (28%) and I (19%, after accounting for iodized salt consumption). The risk of Cu (1%) and Mg (<1%) deficiency are low. Deficiency risks are generally lower in the north and west of Africa. Multiple MND risks are high in many countries. The population-weighted mean phytate supply is 2770 mg capita(-1) day(-1). Deficiency risks for Fe are lower than expected (5%). However, 'cut-point' approaches for Fe are sensitive to assumptions regarding requirements; e. g. estimates of Fe deficiency risks are 43% under very low bioavailability scenarios consistent with high-phytate, low-animal protein diets. Fertilization and breeding strategies could greatly reduce certain MNDs. For example, meeting HARVESTPLUS breeding targets for Zn would reduce dietary Zn deficiency risk by 90% based on supply data. Dietary diversification or direct fortification is likely to be needed to address Ca deficiency risks.

%B Physiologia Plantarum %V 151 %P 208-229 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/i003347/1 %2 ne-i003347-1 %3 32 %4 Malawi %# 000337598900003 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/ppl.12144 %M 0031-9317 %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %D 2014 %T Discontinuity in the responses of ecosystem processes and multifunctionality to altered soil community composition %A Bradford, Mark A. %A Wood, Stephen A. %A Bardgett, Richard D. %A Black, Helaina I. J. %A Bonkowski, Michael %A Eggers, Till %A Grayston, Susan J. %A Kandeler, Ellen %A Manning, Peter %A Setälä, Heikki %A Jones, T. Hefin %X

Ecosystem management policies increasingly emphasize provision of multiple, as opposed to single, ecosystem services. Management for such “multifunctionality” has stimulated research into the role that biodiversity plays in providing desired rates of multiple ecosystem processes. Positive effects of biodiversity on indices of multifunctionality are consistently found, primarily because species that are redundant for one ecosystem process under a given set of environmental conditions play a distinct role under different conditions or in the provision of another ecosystem process. Here we show that the positive effects of diversity (specifically community composition) on multifunctionality indices can also arise from a statistical fallacy analogous to Simpson’s paradox (where aggregating data obscures causal relationships). We manipulated soil faunal community composition in combination with nitrogen fertilization of model grassland ecosystems and repeatedly measured five ecosystem processes related to plant productivity, carbon storage, and nutrient turnover. We calculated three common multifunctionality indices based on these processes and found that the functional complexity of the soil communities had a consistent positive effect on the indices. However, only two of the five ecosystem processes also responded positively to increasing complexity, whereas the other three responded neutrally or negatively. Furthermore, none of the individual processes responded to both the complexity and the nitrogen manipulations in a manner consistent with the indices. Our data show that multifunctionality indices can obscure relationships that exist between communities and key ecosystem processes, leading us to question their use in advancing theoretical understanding—and in management decisions—about how biodiversity is related to the provision of multiple ecosystem services.

%B Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %V 111 %P 14478-14483 %G eng %N 40 %1 ne/k010441/1 %2 ne-k010441-1 %3 45 %4 Ethiopia; Uganda %# 000342633900049 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1073/pnas.1413707111 %0 Book Section %D 2014 %T Ecological and social resilience %A Adger, W. N. %A Hodbod, J. %X

This article defines social resilience as the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change. This definition highlights social resilience in relation to the concept of ecological resilience which is a characteristic of ecosystems to maintain themselves in the face of disturbance. There is a clear link between social and ecological resilience, particularly for social groups or communities that are dependent on ecological and environmental resources for their livelihoods. But it is not clear whether resilient ecosystems enable resilient communities in such situations. This article examines whether resilience is a useful characteristic for describing the social and economic situation of social groups and explores potential links between social resilience and ecological resilience. The origins of this interdisciplinary study in human ecology, ecological economics and rural sociology are reviewed, and a study of the impacts of ecological change on a resource-dependent community in contemporary coastal Vietnam in terms of the resilience of its institutions is outlined.

%I Elgar %@ 978-1782544692 %G eng %K https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/1782544690/ref=rdr_ext_tmb %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2014 %T Ecosystem protection and poverty alleviation in the tropics: Perspective from a historical evolution of policy-making in the Brazilian Amazon %A Pinho, Patricia Fernanda %A Patenaude, Genevieve %A Ometto, Jean P. %A Meir, Patrick %A Toledo, Peter M. %A Coelho, Andrea %A Young, Carlos Eduardo Frickmann %X

Despite increased intellectual and conceptual consideration of the linkages between ecosystem service (ES) provisions and poverty alleviation (PA) globally, there has been limited analysis of how these paradigms are used and framed in the regional context of policy-making. In this paper, we address this question by eliciting perspectives on the historical evolution of policies addressing the environment and poverty nexus in the Brazilian Amazon. Our analysis is twofold. First, through an analysis of policy context, we explore how multilateral and international programs have influenced and helped shape national and regional policy-making in the Amazon. Second, through our analysis of policy content, we provide an in-depth discussion of key ES and/or PA policies implemented in the Amazon. Furthermore, we analyze the operationalization of the policy, describe management options, and highlight their impacts on ES and PA. Our results show dichotomies between environmental programs and their social effectiveness, and between environmental and developmental agendas. More recently, however, some attempts have been made at delivering ES protection and PA jointly in policy-making. In conclusion, we provide a framework for policy analysis that can be applied to other tropical countries in the world. If Brazil is to keep its leading role in addressing the challenges of maintaining ecosystem service provision, while alleviating poverty in the Amazon, it must learn from its own experiences.

%B Ecosystem Services %V 8 %P 97-109 %G eng %1 ne/i002952/1 %2 ne-i002952-1 %3 6 %4 Brazil; Malawi; Nepal; Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000363661300011 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.03.002 %M 2212-0416 %0 Journal Article %J Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment %D 2014 %T Effects of land use and insecticides on natural enemies of aphids in cotton: first evidence from smallholder agriculture in the North China Plain %A Ke Zhou %A Jikun Huang %A Xiangzheng Deng %A Wopke van der Werf %A Wei Zhang %A Yanhui Lu %A Kongming Wu %A Feng Wu %X

Studies conducted in the USA and Europe have shown that diverse landscapes in general support greater natural enemy abundance. No quantitative evidence on the relationship between land use diversity and natural enemies has been reported from developing countries, where fields and farms are much smaller than in modernized agriculture in the west, and where insecticide use is often high and indiscriminate.This paper examines the effects of land use and farmers’ insecticide application on natural enemies of aphids in cotton production, based on a unique dataset that links household and cotton field surveys to a detailed assessment of land uses in the landscapes surrounding the cotton fields in the North China Plain (NCP), a major grain and cotton production region in China. Our results show that, in the NCP where farms are small and landscape is dominated by a few crops, Shannon or Simpson land use diversity index is not a good indicator for explaining the relationship between land use and densities of aphid natural enemies. Instead, the types and proportions of cropland habitat mattered. Landscapes with more maize and grassland have higher ladybeetle populations in cotton fields. Farmers’ pest management practices such as the amount and timing of insecticide use significantly affect ladybeetle densities. These results imply that there is a need to recognize the potential positive role of cropland use in pest management and call for more judicious insecticide use strategies by smallholder farmers in the North China Plain.

%B Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment %I Elsevier %V 183 %P 176-184 %G eng %1 ne/i004335/1 %2 ne-i004335-1 %3 13 %4 China %# 000334002500020 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.agee.2013.11.008 %M 0167-8809 %0 Book Section %D 2014 %T Fisheries in coastal India: Extraction, livelihoods and a way of life %A McGregor, J. Allister %A Salagrama, Venkatesh %A Bahadur, Aditya V. %E Gilberthorpe, E. %E Hilson, G. %X

This chapter provides a stylized analysis of the evolution of a key extractrive industry for the Indian economy and society. As one of the world's fastest growing economies, India provides valuable insights into the challenges that development brings for those people whose livelihoods and way of life revolves around coastal fisheries. It also provides important learning opportunities for development policy makers who aspire to shape development processes in relation to natural resource dependent communities. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the trade-offs that confront all of the stakeholders in coastal India as the country accelerated on its development journey into the 21st century.

%I Ashgate %C Farnham %@ 9781409437772 %G eng %K http://www.academia.edu/8896457/Fisheries_in_Coastal_India_Extraction_Livelihoods_and_a_Way_of_Life# %1 ne/g008337/1 %2 ne-g008337-1 %4 India; Sri Lanka %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences %D 2014 %T Food security in a perfect storm: using the ecosystem services framework to increase understanding %A Poppy, G. M. %A Chiotha, S. %A Eigenbrod, F. %A Harvey, C. A. %A Honzák, M. %A Hudson, M. D. %A Jarvis, A. %A Madise, N. J. %A Schreckenberg, K. %A Shackleton, C. M. %A Villa, F. %A Dawson, T. P. %X

Achieving food security in a ‘perfect storm’ scenario is a grand challenge for society. Climate change and an expanding global population act in concert to make global food security even more complex and demanding. As achieving food security and the millennium development goal (MDG) to eradicate hunger influences the attainment of other MDGs, it is imperative that we offer solutions which are complementary and do not oppose one another. Sustainable intensification of agriculture has been proposed as a way to address hunger while also minimizing further environmental impact. However, the desire to raise productivity and yields has historically led to a degraded environment, reduced biodiversity and a reduction in ecosystem services (ES), with the greatest impacts affecting the poor. This paper proposes that the ES framework coupled with a policy response framework, for example Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR), can allow food security to be delivered alongside healthy ecosystems, which provide many other valuable services to humankind. Too often, agro-ecosystems have been considered as separate from other natural ecosystems and insufficient attention has been paid to the way in which services can flow to and from the agro-ecosystem to surrounding ecosystems. Highlighting recent research in a large multi-disciplinary project (ASSETS), we illustrate the ES approach to food security using a case study from the Zomba district of Malawi.

%B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences %I Royal Society, The %C London %V vol. 369 %G eng %N no. 1639 %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %3 19 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000332466600011 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2012.0288 %M 1471-2970 %0 Journal Article %J Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C %D 2014 %T A global and regional perspective of rainwater harvesting in sub-Saharan Africa's rainfed farming %A Karpouzoglou, Timothy %A Barron, Jennie %X

In semi-arid and sub-humid sub-Saharan Africa highly variable rainfall, frequent droughts and low water productivity are consistently undermining food security. Rainwater harvesting technologies (RWHTs) help utilise water more productively whilst raising yield levels. In this article it is argued that realising the potential of RWHTs for resilience building and climate adaptation requires a better understanding of global and regional processes influencing RWHTs adoption combined with pre-existing analysis at the household scale. On the basis of a systematic literature review, processes of influence in the diffusion and uptake of RWHTs are identified. These relate to shifting ideology associated with food production systems; the scope of investments in agriculture science and technology; emergent actors shaping development assistance; and patterns of farmer mobility. Drawing insights from theory on transformations for sustainability and development, this article adds to the understanding of connectedness between farm-level adoption of RWHTs, and regional to global level actors, institutions and processes. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

%B Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C %I PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD %V 88 %P 43-53 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 5 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000348019800005 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.pce.2014.09.009 %M 1474-7065 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2014 %T The hedgification of maizescapes? Scalability and multifunctionality of Jatropha curcas hedges in a mixed farming landscape in Zambia %A van der Horst, Dan %A Vermeylen, Saskia %A Kuntashula, Elias %X

We argue that reading the local agricultural landscape is a prerequisite to understanding the plausible local impacts of external drivers for change, such as the introduction of new crops and technologies. Initially driven by a desire to understand the potential for small-scale farmers to produce jatropha biodiesel in a sustainable way, we started to examine how farmers related to trees in different parts of the agricultural landscape. This provided us with insights into small-scale processes of land enclosure and conversion, which indicate that agricultural intensification is taking place. We learned that although the landscape could in theory accommodate a lot of jatropha hedges around existing (maize dominated) arable land, farmers were only creating hedges around new fields, carved out in the grazing commons. Already well established within the settlement, jatropha can produce a range of different ecosystem services. However, our case study suggests that scalability is problematic: cultural ecosystem services can be provided at very limited levels of production; supporting ecosystem services require a certain scaling up of production; and provisioning ecosystem services, like biofuels, would require production to be increased well beyond any synergies with ongoing tree plantings or land conversion processes.

%B Ecology and Society %V 19 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/i003819/1 %2 ne-i003819-1 %3 4 %4 Zambia %# 000338711600043 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/es-06437-190248 %M 1708-3087 %0 Journal Article %J The Open Ecology Journal %D 2014 %T Herbivore dynamics and range contraction in Kajiado County Kenya: Climate and land use changes, population pressures, governance, policy and human-wildlife conflicts %A O. Ogutu, Joseph %A Piepho, Hans-Peter %A Said, Mohammed Y. %A Kifugo, Shem C. %X

Wildlife populations are declining severely in many protected areas and unprotected pastoral areas of Africa. Rapid large-scale land use changes, poaching, climate change, rising population pressures, governance, policy, economic and socio-cultural transformations and competition with livestock all contribute to the declines in abundance. Here we analyze the population dynamics of 15 wildlife and four livestock species monitored using aerial surveys from 1977 to 2011 within Kajiado County of Kenya, with a rapidly expanding human population, settlements, cultivation and other developments. The abundance of the 14 most common wildlife species declined by 67% on average (2% / yr) between 1977 and 2011 in both Eastern (Amboseli Ecosystem) and Western Kajiado. The species that declined the most were buffalo, impala, wildebeest, waterbuck, oryx, hartebeest, Thomson’s gazelle and gerenuk in Eastern Kajiado (70% to 88%) and oryx, hartebeest, impala, buffalo, waterbuck, giraffe, eland and gerenuk in Western Kajiado (77% to 99%). Only elephant (115%) and ostrich (216%) numbers increased contemporaneously in Eastern and Western Kajiado, respectively. Cattle and donkey numbers also decreased on average by 78% in Eastern Kajiado and by 37% in Western Kajiado. Sheep and goats decreased the least in Eastern (28%) but increased in Western (96%) Kajiadio. Livestock dominated (70-80%) the total large herbivore biomass throughout the 1977-2011 monitoring period. The distribution of wildlife contracted dramatically during 1977-2011, most especially for wildebeest, giraffe and impala. Only zebra and ostrich distributions expanded in the county. However, livestock distribution expanded to densely cover most of the county. Our findings point to recurrent droughts, intensifying human population pressures, land use changes and other anthropogenic impacts, decades of ineffective or failed government policies, legislations, law enforcement, management institutions and strategies as the salient causes of the declines and range compressions. We recommend several urgent measures to rehabilitate the depleted wildlife populations and habitat richness, restore their ecological resilience to droughts and secure pastoral livelihoods.

%B The Open Ecology Journal %V 7 %G eng %1 ne/i003673/1 %2 ne-i003673-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kenya; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.2174/1874213001407010009 %M 1874-2130 %0 Journal Article %J International Forestry Review %D 2014 %T The impacts of Tanzania's natural resource management programmes for ecosystem services and poverty alleviation %A Patenaude, G. %A Lewis, K. %X

For Tanzania's emerging REDD+ policy to successfully build on existing community based natural resource management structures, a critical analysis of the outcomes of existing policy approaches for ecosystem services and poverty alleviation is needed. Our research addresses this aim, and provides an analysis of Tanzania's four prominent natural resource management programmes. Our analysis focuses on impacts on poverty alleviation (PA) and ecosystem services (ES). The research, conducted between June 2011 and April 2012, involved a 10-months period in Tanzania engaging with key policy and academic experts and reviewing relevant literature. Programmes relating to forests, environment and development as well as to community-based natural resource management in Tanzania were reviewed. These were further analysed based on governance themes, namely their level of: (1) decentralisation; (2) intersectoral integration; (3) community access to resources; (4) operational simplicity; and (5) equitable benefit sharing (both within the local community/user groups, and between governance levels). We derive a relative assessment of the degree of influence (High, Intermediate, Low) and nature of influence (Positive, Neutral, Negative) of the programmes on ES and PA outcomes. Building on this analysis, we provide contextual insights and recommendations specific to Tanzania for nascent policy initiatives (e.g. REDD+). The need for such contextual recommendations has been profoundly stressed.

%B International Forestry Review %V 16 %P 459-473 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/i002952/1 %2 ne-i002952-1 %4 Brazil; Malawi; Nepal; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1505/146554814813484077 %M 1465-5489 %0 Journal Article %J Journal Of Public Economics %D 2014 %T Leadership and the voluntary provision of public goods: Field evidence from Bolivia %A Jack, B.K %A Recalde, M.P %X

We conduct a controlled field experiment in 52 communities in rural Bolivia to investigate the effect that local authorities have on voluntary public good provision. In our study, community members pool resources to provide environmental education material for local schools. We find that voluntary contributions increase when democratically elected local authorities lead by example. The results are driven by two factors: (1) authorities, like other individuals, give more when they are called upon to lead than when they give in private, and (2) high leader contributions increase the likelihood that others follow. Both effects are stronger when authorities, as compared to randomly selected community members, lead by example. We explore two underlying sources of leadership influence. First,we provide evidence that the effect of a leader's contribution is not limited to signaling the value of the public good. Second, we examine how leader characteristics affect the likelihood that others follow. Specifically, our study shows that authority influence is driven by a combination of formal leadership status, observable characteristics, and the amount that authorities contribute when they give publicly before others.

%B Journal Of Public Economics %P 80-93 %G eng %1 ne/i00436x/1 %2 ne-i00436x-1 %4 Bolivia %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.10.003 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2014 %T Livelisystems: a conceptual framework integrating social, ecosystem, development, and evolutionary theory %A Dorward, Andrew R. %X

Human activity poses multiple environmental challenges for ecosystems that have intrinsic value and also support that activity. Our ability to address these challenges is constrained by, among other things, weaknesses in cross-disciplinary understandings of interactive processes of change in social-ecological systems. This paper draws on complementary insights from social and biological sciences to propose a "livelisystems" framework of multiscale, dynamic change across social and biological systems. This describes how material, informational, and relational assets, asset services, and asset pathways interact in systems with embedded and emergent properties undergoing a variety of structural transformations. Related characteristics of "higher" (notably human) livelisystems and change processes are identified as the greater relative importance of (a) informational, relational, and extrinsic (as opposed to material and intrinsic) assets, (b) teleological (as opposed to natural) selection, and (c) innovational (as opposed to mutational) change. The framework provides valuable insights into social and environmental challenges posed by global and local change, globalization, poverty, modernization, and growth in the anthropocene. Its potential for improving interdisciplinary and multiscale understanding is discussed, notably by examination of human adaptation to biodiversity and ecosystem service change following the spread of Lantana camera in the Western Ghats, India.

%B Ecology and Society %V 19 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/i004149/1 %2 ne-i004149-1 %3 3 %4 Australia; India; South Africa %# 000338711600057 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/es-06494-190244 %M 1708-3087 %0 Journal Article %J PLoS One %D 2014 %T A methodology for adaptable and robust ecosystem services assessment %A Villa, Ferdinando %A Bagstad, Kenneth J. %A Voigt, Brian %A Johnson, Gary W. %A Portela, Rosimeiry %A Honzak, Miroslav %A Batker, David %X

Ecosystem Services (ES) are an established conceptual framework for attributing value to the benefits that nature provides to humans. As the promise of robust ES-driven management is put to the test, shortcomings in our ability to accurately measure, map, and value ES have surfaced. On the research side, mainstream methods for ES assessment still fall short of addressing the complex, multi-scale biophysical and socioeconomic dynamics inherent in ES provision, flow, and use. On the practitioner side, application of methods remains onerous due to data and model parameterization requirements. Further, it is increasingly clear that the dominant ‘‘one model fits all’’ paradigm is often ill-suited to address the diversity of real-world management situations that exist across the broad spectrum of coupled human-natural systems. This article introduces an integrated ES modeling methodology, named ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services), which aims to introduce improvements on these fronts. To improve conceptual detail and representation of ES dynamics, it adopts a uniform conceptualization of ES that gives equal emphasis to their production, flow and use by society, while keeping model complexity low enough to enable rapid and inexpensive assessment in many contexts and for multiple services. To improve fit to diverse application contexts, the methodology is assisted by model integration technologies that allow assembly of customized models from a growing model base. By using computer learning and reasoning, model structure may be specialized for each application context without requiring costly expertise. In this article we discuss the founding principles of ARIES - both its innovative aspects for ES science and as an example of a new strategy to support more accurate decision making in diverse application contexts.

%B PLoS One %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %3 68 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000332851300050 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0091001 %M 1932-6203 %0 Journal Article %J Complexity %D 2014 %T Modeling social-ecological problems in coastal ecosystems: A case study %A Forrester, John %A Greaves, Richard %A Noble, Howard %A Taylor, Richard %X

This article applies a twofold modelling approach to a complex socio-ecological system in coastal Kenya.

%B Complexity %I Wiley %G eng %1 ne/i002448/1 %2 ne-i002448-1 %3 6 %4 Bangladesh; Kenya %# 000339548700007 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/cplx.21524 %M 1099-0526 %0 Journal Article %J Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %D 2014 %T Neglected zoonotic diseases - The long and winding road to advocacy %A Mableson, Hayley E. %A Okello, Anna %A Picozzi, Kim %A Welburn, Susan Christina %X

Background:

Years of advocacy for the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) have focused the world's attention on these diseases of the poor, resulting most recently in the 2012 "London Declaration" and the recent World Health Assembly Resolution WHA66.12 on NTDs in May 2013. Control of the endemic neglected zoonotic diseases (NZDs) would benefit from a similar campaign, which needs the support of a global community.

Methodology/Principal Findings:

The resolutions from all 66 World Health Assembly (WHA) meetings held between 1948 and 2013 were examined to determine how many contain a specific focus on any of the following eight NZDs as defined by the World Health Organisation (WHO): anthrax, bovine tuberculosis (TB), brucellosis, Taenia solium cysticercosis, cystic echinococcosis (hydatidosis), leishmaniasis, rabies, and zoonotic human African trypanosomiasis (HAT or sleeping sickness). Twenty-one resolutions adopted in the 16 assemblies between 1948 and 2013 targeted one or more of these eight NZDs, representing 4% of the total resolutions on infectious diseases passed to date. The 2013 adoption of Resolution WHA66.12 targeting all 17 NTDs marks a change in approach by the WHA. Whereas previous resolutions have targeted the NTDs as separate entities, the new approach of the combined resolution will help increase the overall momentum to target these ancient diseases as coendemic clusters in endemic countries. However, three major NZDs remain outside this recent resolution: anthrax, brucellosis, and bovine TB.

Conclusions and Significance:

The recent adoption of a specific resolution at the WHA in 2013 that emphasises a One Health approach for the successful control of 17 NTDs is a major development in advocacy. However, recognition of the importance of three major NZDs to public health in endemic countries-anthrax, brucellosis, and bovine tuberculosis-is still lacking despite being prioritised by the WHA as early as the 1950s. Global advocacy for control of the NZDs as a whole would similarly benefit from adoption of a One Health approach as is promoted for the NTDs under WHA66.12.

%B Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %V 8 %G eng %N 6 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 15 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000338846100002 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/Journal.Pntd.0002800 %M 1935-2735 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences %D 2014 %T New perspectives in ecosystem services science as instruments to understand environmental securities %A Villa, Ferdinando %A Voigt, Brian %A Erickson, Jon D. %X

As societal demand for food, water and other life-sustaining resources grows, the science of ecosystem services (ES) is seen as a promising tool to improve our understanding, and ultimately the management, of increasingly uncertain supplies of critical goods provided or supported by natural ecosystems. This promise, however, is tempered by a relatively primitive understanding of the complex systems supporting ES, which as a result are often quantified as static resources rather than as the dynamic expression of human–natural systems. This article attempts to pinpoint the minimum level of detail that ES science needs to achieve in order to usefully inform the debate on environmental securities, and discusses both the state of the art and recent methodological developments in ES in this light. We briefly review the field of ES accounting methods and list some desiderata that we deem necessary, reachable and relevant to address environmental securities through an improved science of ES. We then discuss a methodological innovation that, while only addressing these needs partially, can improve our understanding of ES dynamics in data-scarce situations. The methodology is illustrated and discussed through an application related to water security in the semi-arid landscape of the Great Ruaha river of Tanzania.

%B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences %I Royal Society, The %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %3 14 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000332466600010 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2012.0286 %M 1471-2970 %0 Journal Article %J Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %D 2014 %T One Health: Past successes and future challenges in three African contexts %A Okello, Anna L. %A Bardosh, Kevin %A Smith, James %A Welburn, Susan C. %X

Background:

The recent emergence of zoonotic diseases such as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) have contributed to dominant Global Health narratives around health securitisation and pandemic preparedness, calling for greater co-operation between the health, veterinary and environmental sectors in the ever-evolving One Health movement. A decade later, One Health advocates face increasing pressure to translate the approach from theory into action.

Methodology/Principal Findings:

A qualitative case study methodology was used to examine the emerging relationships between international One Health dialogue and its practical implementation in the African health policy context. A series of Key Informant Interviews (n = 32) with policy makers, government officials and academics in Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda are presented as three separate case studies. Each case examines a significant aspect of One Health operationalisation, framed around the control of both emerging and Neglected Zoonotic Diseases including HPAI, Human African Trypanosomiasis and rabies. The research found that while there is general enthusiasm and a strong affirmative argument for adoption of One Health approaches in Africa, identifying alternative contexts away from a narrow focus on pandemics will help broaden its appeal, particularly for national or regionally significant endemic and neglected diseases not usually addressed under a "global" remit.

Conclusions/Significance:

There is no 'one size fits all' approach to achieving the intersectoral collaboration, significant resource mobilisation and political co-operation required to realise a One Health approach. Individual country requirements cannot be underestimated, dismissed or prescribed in a top down manner. This article contributes to the growing discussion regarding not whether One Health should be operationalised, but how this may be achieved.

%B Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %V 8 %G eng %N 5 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 12 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000337735100061 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002884 %M 1935-2735 %0 Journal Article %J Biomass and Bioenergy %D 2014 %T A pro-poor biofuel? Household wealth and farmer participation in Jatropha curcas seed production and exchange in eastern Zambia %A Kuntashula, Elias %A van der Horst, Dan %A Vermeylen, Saskia %X

When a new crop is being promoted as a pro-poor, like in the case of Jatropha curcas (J. curcas) in Zambian rural communities, it is pertinent to explore factors that might affect its adoption, on not only homogenous groups but also heterogeneous wealth categories. This is because poorer farmers may be reluctant to invest in any untried innovations mainly due to their limited factors of production. Evidence from a household survey of 249 randomly selected farmers in eastern Zambia indicates that some factors that affect the farmers in embracing J. curcas seed production and exchange activities differ according to wealth. While factors related to household labour availability were crucial to involvement in J. curcas collection and exchange activities among poorest farmers, it was gender of the household heads and access to off-farm income that significantly influenced these activities among the well endowed farmers. Results further indicate that the farmers who are relatively well endowed are the ones most likely to benefit more from J. curcas collection and selling activities. Well endowed households harvested more seed from hedges because they have more labour and currently harvesting of seed is not restricted to private hedges. Further evidence show that even with fewer household members, the poorly endowed could be involved in planting of hedges. This is an avenue that can help the poorest farmers especially when property rights over J. curcas hedges are secured.

%B Biomass and Bioenergy %V 63 %P 187-197 %G eng %1 ne/i003819/1 %2 ne-i003819-1 %3 7 %4 Zambia %# 000335275500020 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.biombioe.2014.01.051 %M 0961-9534 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences %D 2014 %T Riparian ecosystem resilience and livelihood strategies under test: lessons from Lake Chilwa in Malawi and other lakes in Africa %A Kafumbata, Dalitso %A Jamu, Daniel %A Chiotha, Sosten %X

This paper reviews the importance of African lakes and their management challenges. African inland lakes contribute significantly to food security, livelihoods and national economies through direct exploitation of fisheries, water resources for irrigation and hydropower generation. Because of these key contributions, the ecosystem services provided are under significant stress mainly owing to high demand by increasing populations, negative anthropogenic impacts on lake catchments and high levels of poverty which result in unsustainable use. Climate variability exacerbates the stress on these ecosystems. Current research findings show that the lakes cannot sustain further development activities on the scale seen over the past few decades. Millions of people are at risk of losing livelihoods through impacts on livestock and wildlife. The review further shows that the problems facing these lakes are beyond the purview of current management practices. A much better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between different components of the lake socio-ecological systems is needed to address the complex challenges of managing these ecosystem services. This review suggests that the three small wetlands of Chad, Chilwa and Naivasha provide an opportunity for testing novel ideas that integrate sustainability of natural resource management with livelihoods in order to inform policy on how future land use and climatic variability will affect both food security and the ecosystem services associated with it.

%B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences %I Royal Society, The %C London %V 369 %G eng %N 1639 %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %3 4 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000332466600012 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2013.0052 %M 1471-2970 %0 Journal Article %J Sustainability %D 2014 %T The rise, fall and potential resilience benefits of Jatropha in southern Africa %A von Maltitz, Graham %A Gasparatos, Alexandros %A Fabricius, Christo %X

Jatropha is the latest in a list of "miracle crops" that have been promoted in southern Africa for their perceived development benefits. This was based on promises of high yields, low water requirement, ability to grow on marginal land and lack of competition with food. In less than 10 years, tens of thousands of hectares were acquired for jatropha plantations and thousands of hectares were planted, most of which are now unused or abandoned. Overestimations of jatropha yields coupled with underestimations of the management costs have probably been the prime contributors to the collapse of most jatropha projects in southern African. However, a few projects still survive and show signs of possible long-term sustainability. We consider two such projects, a smallholder-based project in Malawi and a large-scale plantation in Mozambique. Though their long-term sustainability is not proven, both projects may increase resilience by diversifying household income streams and contributing to national fuel security. By identifying what seems to be working in these projects we provide insights as to why other projects may have failed in southern Africa and whether there is still place for jatropha in the region. In essence can jatropha still enhance local/national resilience or are jatropha's benefits just a myth?

%B Sustainability %V 6 %P 3615-3643 %G eng %N 6 %1 ne/l001373/1 %2 ne-l001373-1 %3 13 %4 Malawi; Mozambique; Swaziland %# 000338747900024 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3390/su6063615 %M 2071-1050 %0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %D 2014 %T Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems %A Dearing, John A. %A Wang, Rong %A Zhang, Ke %A Dyke, James G. %A Haberl, Helmut %A Hossain, Md. Sarwar %A Langdon, Peter G. %A Lenton, Timothy M. %A Raworth, Kate %A Brown, Sally %A Carstensen, Jacob %A Cole, Megan J. %A Cornell, Sarah E. %A Dawson, Terence P. %A Doncaster, C. Patrick %A Eigenbrod, Felix %A Florke, Martina %A Jeffers, Elizabeth %A Mackay, Anson W. %A Nykvist, Bjorn %A Poppy, Guy M. %X

Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockstrom et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).

%B Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %V 28 %P 227-238 %G eng %1 eirg-2011-166 %2 eirg-2011-166 %3 61 %4 China %# 000343839100020 %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.012 %M 0959-3780 %0 Journal Article %J Parasites & Vectors %D 2014 %T Sodalis glossinidius prevalence and trypanosome presence in tsetse from Luambe National Park, Zambia %A Dennis, Jonny W. %A Durkin, Simon M. %A Horsley-Downie, Jemima E. %A Hamill, Louise C. %A Anderson, Neil E. %A MacLeod, Ewan T. %X

Background:

Tsetse flies are the biological vectors of African trypanosomes, the causative agents of sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in animals. The tsetse endosymbiont Sodalis glossinidius has been suggested to play a role in tsetse susceptibility to infection. Here we investigate the prevalence of African trypanosomes within tsetse from the Luambe National Park, Zambia and if there is an association between S. glossinidius and presence of trypanosomes within the tsetse examined.

Methods:

Tsetse representing three species (Glossina brevipalpis, Glossina morsitans morsitans and Glossina pallidipes), were sampled from Luambe National Park, Zambia. Following DNA extraction, PCR was used to examine the tsetse for presence of trypanosomes and the secondary endosymbiont S. glossinidius.

Results:

S. glossinidius infection rates varied significantly between tsetse species, with G. brevipalpis (93.7%) showing the highest levels of infection followed by G. m. morsitans (17.5%) and G. pallidipes (1.4%). ITS-PCR detected a wide variety of trypanosomes within the tsetse that were analysed. Significant differences were found in terms of trypanosome presence between the three tsetse species. A high proportion of G. m. morsitans were shown to carry T. brucei s.l. DNA (73.7%) and of these around 50% were positive for Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense. T. vivax, T. godfreyi, T. simiae, T. simiae Tsavo and T. congolense were also detected. No association was found between the occurrence of S. glossinidius and the presence of trypanosome DNA in any of the three tsetse species tested.

Conclusion:

The current work shows that T. b. rhodesiense was circulating in Luambe National Park, representing a risk for people living in the park or surrounding area and for tourists visiting the park. The differences in trypanosome DNA presence observed between the different tsetse species tested may indicate host feeding preferences, as the PCR will not discriminate between a fly with an active/resident infection compared to a refractory fly that has fed on an infected animal. This makes it difficult to establish if S. glossinidius may play a role in the susceptibility of tsetse flies to trypanosome infection.

%B Parasites & Vectors %V 7 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 7 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000340910500001 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1186/1756-3305-7-378 %M 1756-3305 %0 Book %D 2014 %T Soil carbon: science, management and policy for multiple benefits %A Banwart, S.A. %E Noellemeyer, E. %E Milne, E. %X

This book brings together the essential evidence and policy opportunities regarding the global importance of soil carbon for sustaining Earth's life support system for humanity. Covering the science and policy background for this important natural resource, it describes land management options that improve soil carbon status and therefore increase the benefits that humans derive from the environment. Written by renowned global experts, it is the principal output from a SCOPE rapid assessment process project.

%I CABI Publishing %@ 9781780645322 %G eng %K https://www.palgrave.com/gb/book/9783319710921# %1 ne/k010441/1 %2 ne-k010441-1 %4 Ethiopia; Uganda %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Conservation Letters %D 2014 %T Toward an empirical analysis of justice in ecosystem governance %A Sikor, Thomas %A Martin, Adrian %A Fisher, Janet %A He, Jun %X

The 2010 Nagoya Protocol under the Convention on Biological Diversity and recent changes in the policies of major international conservation organizations highlight current interest in revisiting the moral case for conservation. Concerns with equity and human rights challenge well-established notions of justice centered on human responsibility toward nature, the common good or the rights of future generations. This review introduces an empirical approach to the analysis of justice and shows how conservation scientists can apply it to ecosystem services-based governance (or in short, ecosystem governance). It identifies dominant notions of justice and points out their compatibility with utilitarian theories of justice. It then discusses the limited appropriateness of these notions in many contexts in which conservation takes place in the Global South and explores how technical components of ecosystem governance influence the realization of the notions in practice. The review highlights the need for conservation scientists and managers to analyze the justice of ecosystem governance in addition to their effectiveness and efficiency. Justice offers a more encompassing perspective than equity for the empirical analysis of conservation governance.

%B Conservation Letters %V 7 %P 524-532 %G eng %N 6 %1 ne/l001411/1 %2 ne-l001411-1 %4 Lao PDR %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R DOI: 10.1111/conl.12142 %M 1755-263X %0 Journal Article %J Water Policy %D 2014 %T Transboundary water justice: a combined reading of literature on critical transboundary water interaction and ‘justice’, for analysis and diplomacy %A Zeitoun, Mark %A Warner, Jeroen %A Mirumachi, Naho %A Matthews, Nathanial %A McLaughlin, Karis %A Woodhouse, Melvin %A Cascão, Ana %A Allan, Tony (J. A.) %X

By reviewing and blending two main bodies of research (critical transboundary water interaction analysis and centuries of thought on social justice) this paper seeks to improve international transboundary water interaction analysis and diplomacy. Various implications for transboundary analysis and diplomacy are grouped under themes of equitability, process/outcomes, and structural concerns. These include shortcomings of analysis and policy based on unfounded assumptions of equality, and options excluded from consideration by the legitimisation of particular concepts of justice over others. As power asymmetry is seen to enable or disable justice claims and conflict resolution efforts, the importance of ensuring equitable outcomes as a pre-condition for cooperation is asserted. Similarly, water conflict resolution is found to be more fair – procedurally – than is conflict management, and may be supported to a limited extent by international water law. A number of analytical tasks are suggested for future research and policy, including a call to scrutinise the source of legitimacy of strands of justice invoked. Given the very many perspectives on justice that exist in the network of relevant actors, potential bias in research and diplomacy could be reduced if all involved openly stated the morals underpinning their understanding of ‘justice’.

%B Water Policy %V 16 %P 174–193 %G eng %N S2 %1 ne/i003282/1 %2 ne-i003282-1 %3 8 %4 China; India; Uganda %# 000349029500010 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.2166/wp.2014.111 %M 1366-7017 %0 Journal Article %J Ambio %D 2014 %T Turning the tide: How blue carbon and Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) might help save mangrove forests %A Locatelli, Tommaso %A Binet, Thomas %A Kairo, James Gitundu %A King, Lesley %A Madden, Sarah %A Patenaude, Genevieve %A Upton, Caroline %A Huxham, Mark %X

In this review paper, we aim to describe the potential for, and the key challenges to, applying PES projects to mangroves. By adopting a "carbocentric approach,'' we show that mangrove forests are strong candidates for PES projects. They are particularly well suited to the generation of carbon credits because of their unrivaled potential as carbon sinks, their resistance and resilience to natural hazards, and their extensive provision of Ecosystem Services other than carbon sequestration, primarily nursery areas for fish, water purification and coastal protection, to the benefit of local communities as well as to the global population. The voluntary carbon market provides opportunities for the development of appropriate protocols and good practice case studies for mangroves at a small scale, and these may influence larger compliance schemes in the future. Mangrove habitats are mostly located in developing countries on communally or state-owned land. This means that issues of national and local governance, land ownership and management, and environmental justice are the main challenges that require careful planning at the early stages of mangrove PES projects to ensure successful outcomes and equitable benefit sharing within local communities.

%B Ambio %V 43 %P 981-995 %G eng %N 8 %1 ne/i003401/1 %2 ne-i003401-1 %3 13 %4 Kenya %# 000344920200001 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s13280-014-0530-y %M 0044-7447 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2014 %T Understanding the relationships between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation: A conceptual framework %A Fisher, Janet A. %A Patenaude, Genevieve %A Giri, Kalpana %A Lewis, Kristina %A Meir, Patrick %A Pinho, Patricia %A Rounsevell, Mark D.A. %A Williams, Mathew %X

As interest grows in the contribution of ecosystem services to poverty alleviation, we present a new conceptual framework, synthesizing insights from existing frameworks in social–ecological systems science and international development. People have differentiated abilities to benefit from ecosystem services, and the framework places emphasis on access to services, which may constrain the poorest more than aggregate availability. Distinctions are also made between categories of ecosystem service in their contribution to wellbeing, provisioning services and cash being comparatively easy to control. The framework gives analytical space for understanding the contribution of payments for ecosystem services to wellbeing, as distinct from direct ecosystem services. It also highlights the consumption of ecosystem services by external actors, through land appropriation or agricultural commodities. Important conceptual distinctions are made between poverty reduction and prevention, and between human response options of adaptation and mitigation in response to environmental change. The framework has applications as a thinking tool, laying out important relationships such that an analyst could identify and understand these in a particular situation. Most immediately, this has research applications, as a basis for multidisciplinary, policy- relevant research, but there are also applications to support practitioners in pursuing joint policy objectives of environmental sustainability and poverty alleviation.

%B Ecosystem Services %I Elsevier %V 7 %P 34-45 %G eng %1 ne/i002952/1 %2 ne-i002952-1 %3 26 %4 Brazil; Malawi; Nepal; Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000363660700005 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.08.002 %M 22120416 %0 Journal Article %J Urban Studies %D 2014 %T Urban poverty in Bangladesh: slum communities, migration and social integration %A Roy, Manoj %X

The study of urban poverty in Bangladesh has so far been patchy, often limited to collections of chapters (Islam, 2010; Rahman, 2011), or based on non-representative surveys (e.g. Islam et al., 1997; Urban Partnerships for Poverty Reduction (UPPR), 2010), or focused on municipal governance (Murtaza, 2002), or concerned primarily with Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital city (Afsar, 2000; Begum, 1999; Siddiqui et al., 2000, 2010). What is missing is commanding scholarship on the urbanization process – such as the ways in which Schandel (2009) and Lewis (2011) have studied Bangladesh’s historical and governance settings.

%B Urban Studies %I SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD %V 51 %P 453-457 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/l001616/1 %2 ne-l001616-1 %3 1 %4 Bangladesh; Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000328727000016 %6 ESPA-2013 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1177/0042098013512698 %M 0042-0980 %0 Book Section %D 2014 %T Vulnerability, poverty and sustaining well-being %A Adger, W. N. %A Winkels, A. %X

This timely and important Handbook takes stock of progress made in our understanding of what sustainable development actually is and how it can be achieved. Twenty years on from the publication of the seminal Brundtland Report, it has become clear that formidable challenges confront policy makers who have publicly stated their commitment to the goal of sustainable development. The Handbook of Sustainable Development seeks to provide an account of the considerable progress made in fleshing out these issues.

%I Elgar %@ 978-1782544692 %G eng %K https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/1782544690/ref=rdr_ext_tmb %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Evidence %D 2014 %T Which components or attributes of biodiversity influence which dimensions of poverty? %A Roe, Dilys %A Fancourt, Max %A Sandbrook, Chris %A Sibanda, Mxolisi %A Giuliani, Alessandra %A Gordon-Maclean, Andrew %X

Background:

There is an explicit assumption in international policy statements that biodiversity can help in efforts to tackle global poverty. This systematic map was stimulated by an interest in better understanding the evidence behind this assumption by disaggregating the terms and asking - as our review question - which components or attributes of biodiversity influence which dimensions of poverty?

Methods:

We employed a search strategy that covered peer-reviewed and grey literature. Relevant studies included in the map were those that described an interaction by poor people with biodiversity in non-OECD countries and documented some kind of contribution (positive or negative) to different aspects of their well-being.

Results:

A total of 387 studies were included in the final systematic map. Of these 248 met our additional criteria that studies should include a measure of the contribution to poverty alleviation. The studies were widely distributed geographically. Ecological distribution was less well spread, however, with the largest number of studies focussed on forests. We found studies addressing 12 different dimensions of poverty/well-being –although the most commonly studied was income. Similarly we found studies addressing all levels of biodiversity from genes to ecosystems. The largest number of studies was focussed on groups of resources –particularly non-timber forest products. In most cases, abundance was the attribute that made biodiversity important for poverty alleviation/well-being, while diversity was the least frequently noted attribute.

Conclusions:

The map highlights a number of apparent gaps in the evidence base. Very few studies documented any causal link between use of biodiversity and an impact on poverty. In the majority of the studies biodiversity was framed in terms of its value as a resource –in the form of specific goods that can be used to generate tangible benefits such as cash, food fuel. Very few studies explored the underpinning role of biodiversity in ecosystem service delivery for poverty alleviation, and fewer investigated the benefits of diversity as a form of insurance or adaptive capacity. This is where we suggest research should be prioritised. 

%B Environmental Evidence %I BioMed Central %V 3 %P 3 %G eng %N 1 %1 eirg-2011-173 %2 eirg-2011-173 %4 Global %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1186/2047-2382-3-3 %M 2047-2382 %0 Book Section %D 2014 %T Zoonoses and Eid %A Butler, C %X

There is increasing understanding, globally, that climate change will have profound and mostly harmful effects on human health. This authoritative book brings together international experts to describe both direct (such as heat waves) and indirect (such as vector-borne disease incidence) impacts of climate change, set in a broad, international, economic, political and environmental context. This unique book also expands on these issues to address a third category of potential longer-term impacts on global health: famine, population dislocation, and conflict. This lively yet scholarly resource explores these issues fully, linking them to health in urban and rural settings in developed and developing countries. The book finishes with a practical discussion of action that health professionals can yet take.

%I CABI %@ 9.7817806427e+012 %G eng %K http://www.cabi.org/bookshop/book/9781780642659 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Book Section %D 2014 %T Zoonotic diseases and their drivers in Africa %A Grace, D. %A Bett, B. %E Butler, C. %X

This chapter focuses on the link between livestock and zoonoses in sub-Saharan Africa. The role of poverty, keeping livestock beside or inside houses, low level of agricultural intensification and input use, and eating bushmeat in the emergence and persistence of zoonoses is described. The exceptional vulnerability to a deadly trifecta of climate change, high rates of demographic increase and uncontrolled disease is discussed.

%I CABI Publishing %@ 9781780642659 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1079/9781780642659.0228 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Access to resources for farmer professional cooperatives in China %A Qi, Gubo %A Wu, Benjian %A Wu, Bin %X

A common constraint facing farmer professional cooperatives (FPCs) in China is the lack of access to key resources, including financial, technology, and governmental support. Based upon empirical observation and interview with two cooperatives in Shangdong Province, this chapter sheds light on the major issues and coping strategies used by farmers. Despite differences in products and organizational structure, two cases share some common characteristics in terms of accumulating and enhancing social capital. However, members in these organizations lack a sense of ownership and endogenous agency when they are obtaining resources. Policy implications are discussed for the sustainable development of the FPCs in China.

%I Routledge %@ 978-0415665674 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/products/9780415665674## %1 ne/g008280/1 %2 ne-g008280-1 %4 China %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Global And Planetary Change %D 2013 %T Assessing dissolved inorganic nitrogen flux in the Yangtze River, China: Sources and scenarios %A Xu, Hao %A Chen, Zhongyuan %A Finlayson, Brian %A Webber, Michael %A Wu, Xiaodan %A Li, Maotian %A Chen, Jing %A Wei, Taoyuan %A Barnett, Jon %A Wang, Mark %X

This study gives a thorough assessment of the occurrences of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in the Yangtze River in the past half century. The results have shown that nitrogen fertilizer, a major DIN source, has been replaced by domestic sewage in the last decade, which has dramatically driven up DIN loads in the Yangtze. DIN concentrations showed a rapid increase from <0.5 mg L-1 in the 1960s to nearly 1.5 mg L-1 at the end of the 1990s. Since then DIN has remained steady at ca. 1.6-1.8 mg L-1. A significant relationship between the historical DIN record at the downstream gauging station (Datong) and nitrogen (N) sources in the Yangtze River basin is established using principal components analysis. This allows us to apportion DIN loads for the year 2007 (the most recent year of measured DIN data available) to various N sources, listed here in order of weight: sewage (0391 million tons); atmosphere (0358 million tons); manure (0318 million tons), N-fertilizer (0271 million tons). Therefore, we estimated that a DIN load of 1339 x 10(6) t was delivered to the lower Yangtze and its estuarine water in that year. We established scenarios to predict DIN concentrations in the lower Yangtze at 10 year intervals to 2050. For a dry year (20,000 m(3) s(-1)) DIN concentrations would range from 22-3.0 mg L-1 for 2020-2050. This far exceeds the 2.0 mg L-1 defined on the Chinese National Scale as the worst class for potable source water. The scenario results suggest that upgrading the sewage treatment systems throughout the basin will be an effective way to help reduce DIN concentrations to less than 2.0 mg L-1 in the lower Yangtze. This would save the Shanghai megacity from the increasing threat of heavily polluted water sources, where >23 million people are at present dependent on the Yangtze estuary for 70% of their freshwater intake. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

%B Global And Planetary Change %I ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV %V 106 %P 84-89 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %3 4 %4 Bangladesh; India %# 000320490800009 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.03.005 %M 0921-8181 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Basin Justice: Using social justice to address gaps in river basin management %A Zeitoun, Mark %X

Society, economy and environment. As in the first of the Dublin Principles, the three are always given near-equal measure in water research and policy circles as the 'pillars' of water resources management. When unpacked, the social pillar is inevitably composed in part on the principle of 'equity'. Justice, or some variation of it, then, claims a foundational role in water resources management alongside principles from the sister pillars of efficiency and environmental sustainability.

This chapter explores the extent to which the assertion holds in relation to the management of river basins. More specifically, its goal is to assess the utility of justice as a lens to both evaluate and inform basin management. The chapter achieves this goal through two distinct examinations of basin management: (a) according to the justic components of its theoretical norms (mainly the Dublin Principles and Integrated Water Resources Mangement (IWRM), and (b) through the lens of various notions of social justice (i.e. egalitarian, Rawlsian, utilitarian and individualistic models of justice).

%I Earthscan %@ 978-0-415-82539-9 %G eng %K https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=dd0cAAAAQBAJ&pg=PT137&lpg=PT137&dq=Basin+Justice:+Using+social+justice+to+address+gaps+in+river+basin+management&source=bl&ots=aSjbVKx20j&sig=W7dj9ultukw_3Qv3cQzj8Vu64qM&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwijp5-PzqTVAhUBqxoKHY4wBDoQ6 %1 ne/i003282/1 %2 ne-i003282-1 %4 China; India; Uganda %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Policy and Law %D 2013 %T Catalysing biofuel sustainability: International and national policy interventions %A Gasparatos, Alexandros %X

The paper identifies the main policy drivers behind biofuel production, and the peripheral role of biofuel sustainability in current policies, particularly focusing on the successes and future challenges of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in promoting biofuel sustainability. Then, by using Sub-Saharan Africa as an example, it describes how the concept of “ecosystem services” can be of use for better understanding biofuel-related trade-offs as well as becoming the basis for assessment tools that can quantify such trade-offs in a policy-relevant manner.

%B Environmental Policy and Law %I IOS Press %V 43 %P 216-221 %G eng %K https://www.ecolex.org/details/literature/sub-saharan-africa-catalysing-biofuel-sustainability-international-and-national-policy-interventions-ana-090671/#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M64 %1 eirg-2011-180 %2 eirg-2011-180 %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ No %M 0378-777X %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Changing places: migration and adaptation to climate change %A Adams, Helen %X

Book chapter on the role of migration as an adaptation to a changing climate and the role of ecosystem services in influencing migration decision-making under environmental change.

%I Routledge %@ 1136272496 %G eng %K http://hdl.handle.net/10871/20336#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M70 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J The Open Conservation Biology Journal %D 2013 %T Changing wildlife populations in Nairobi National Park and adjoining Athi-Kaputiei Plains: collapse of the migratory wildebeest %A Ogutu, Joseph O. %A Owen-Smith, Norman %A Piepho, Hans-Peter %A Said, Mohammed Y. %A Kifugo, Shem C. %A Reid, Robin S. %A Gichohi, Helen %A Kahumbu, Paula %A Andanje, Samule %X

There is mounting concern about declines in wildlife populations in many protected areas in Africa. Migratory ungulates are especially vulnerable to impacts of changing land use outside protected areas on their abundance. Range compression may compromise the capacity of migrants to cope with climatic variation, and accentuate both competitive interactions and predation. We analyzed the population dynamics of 11 ungulate species within Kenya's Nairobi National Park, and compared them to those in the adjoining Athi-Kaputiei Plains, where human settlements and other developments had expanded. The migratory wildebeest decreased from almost 30,000 animals in 1978 to around 5,000 currently but the migratory zebra changed little regionally. Hartebeest, impala, eland, Thomson's gazelle, Grant's gazelle, waterbuck, warthog and giraffe numbers declined regionally, whereas buffalo numbers expanded. Bimonthly counts indicated temporary movements of several species beyond the unfenced park boundaries, especially during very wet years and that few wildebeest entered the park during the dry season following exceptionally wet conditions in 1998. Wildebeest were especially vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts in their wet season dispersal range on the plains. Deterioration in grassland conditions in the park following high rainfall plus lack of burning may have discouraged these animals from using the park as a dry season refuge. Our findings emphasise the interdependency between the park and the plains for seasonal wildlife movements, especially in exceptionally dry or wet years. To effectively conserve these ungulates, we recommend implementation of the new land-use plan for the Athi-Kaputiei Plains by the county government; expansion of the land leasing program for biodiversity payments; collecting poacher's snares; negotiation and enforcement of easements, allowing both wildlife and livestock to move through the Athi-Kaputiei Plains, providing incentives for conservation to landowners; and improving grassland conditions within the park through controlled burning so that more wildlife can gain protection there.

%B The Open Conservation Biology Journal %V 7 %P 11-26 %G eng %1 ne/i003673/1 %2 ne-i003673-1 %4 Ethiopia; Kenya; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.2174/1874839201307010011 %0 Book %D 2013 %T China's development and harmonization: towards a balance with nature, society and the international community %A Wu, Bin %E Yao, Shujie %E Chen, Jian %X

This book examines the experience of enacting the concept of harmonisation in China in recent years. It explores this in terms of development within Chinese society, economic development and changes in business practices, environmental challenges and coping strategies, and changing patterns of international relations. Thoughout, it discusses the gaps between rhetoric and reality, policy and practice.

%I Routledge Studies on the Chinese Economy %@ 978-0-415-66567-4 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/products/9780415665674## %1 ne/g008280/1 %2 ne-g008280-1 %4 China %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %0 Book Section %B Kenya: A Natural Outlook. Geo-environmental resources and hazards %D 2013 %T Coastal waters %A Christine A. Omuombo %A Daniel O. Olago %A Eric O. Odada %X

The Indian Ocean waters off the Kenyan coast is stratified due to temperature, salinity and pressure differences between the warm less saline less dense surface waters and the deep saline cooler waters. This stratification displays local variations influenced by rainfall or heavy water discharges of the deltas of Tana and Sabaki as well as the monsoon with maximum temperatures during the transition periods of the monsoons when the winds are light and the solar insolation is high. Turbidity increases due to sediment discharges at the mouths of the Tana and Sabaki deltas has been noted with high turbidity during the long rains in April–May and short rains in October–November, the East African Coastal Current transports the sediment northwards to the northern banks with a minimum influence on the water quality south of the coast. Sedimentation rates of 3–4 mg/cm2/day have been recorded from the Galana and Tana deltas where increased concentrations of elements such as Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, V and Zn have been reported. The semidiurnal tidal regime is influenced by the monsoon winds with the larger waves (>1.5 m) during the southeast monsoons and the lower waves (<1.5 m) during the northeast monsoons. The coastal zone has witnessed an increase pressure from human occupation, mining, agriculture, fisheries and transport and port activities. The coastal ecosystems have experienced shocks linked oil spills in 1988 and 2005 of which evaluations have displayed slow recovery. The export-processing zone is a potential pollutant alongside the industries and mining activities that discharge untreated solid and liquid effluents into the sea. Population pressure has led to urban and informal human settlements that coupled by the lack of knowledge and awareness of the waste management system alongside the impacts of these waste discharges on the environment in the open seas or the mangroves can be postulated to have influenced the water quality although these pollutants have not been recorded to lack of long-term monitoring of the water quality. The establishment of the Coastal Development Authority to coordinate development projects along the coast and the Environmental Management Coordination Act provides an appropriate legal and institutional framework for controlled activities along the coastal region.

%B Kenya: A Natural Outlook. Geo-environmental resources and hazards %I Elsevier Science & Technology %V 16 %@ 978-0-444-59559-1 %G eng %K http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780444595591000098 %1 ne/i003266/1 %2 ne-i003266-1 %4 Burundi; Congo, Dem. Rep; Congo, Rep.; Ethiopia; Kenya; Malawi; Mozambique; Rwanda; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %& 9 %0 Journal Article %J Ambio %D 2013 %T Connecting marine ecosystem services to human well-being: insights from participatory well-being assessment in Kenya %A Abunge, Caroline %A Coulthard, Sarah %A Daw, Tim M. %X

The linkage between ecosystems and human well-being is a focus of the conceptualization of "ecosystem services" as promoted by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. However, the actual nature of connections between ecosystems and the well-being of individuals remains complex and poorly understood. We conducted a series of qualitative focus groups with five different stakeholder groups connected to a small-scale Kenyan coastal fishery to understand (1) how well-being is understood within the community, and what is important for well-being, (2) how people's well-being has been affected by changes over the recent past, and (3) people's hopes and aspirations for their future fishery. Our results show that people conceive well-being in a diversity of ways, but that these can clearly map onto the MA framework. In particular, our research unpacks the "freedoms and choices" element of the framework and argues for greater recognition of these aspects of well-being in fisheries management in Kenya through, for example, more participatory governance processes.

%B Ambio %I Springer Verlag (Germany) %V 42 %P 1010-1021 %G eng %N 8 %1 ne/i00324x/1 %2 ne-i00324x-1 %3 13 %4 Kenya %# 000326892600010 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s13280-013-0456-9 %M 0044-7447 %0 Journal Article %J Nature Communications %D 2013 %T Continent-wide panmixia of an African fruit bat facilitates transmission of potentially zoonotic viruses %A Peel, Alison J. %A Sargan, David R. %A Baker, Kate S. %A Hayman, David T. S. %A Barr, Jennifer A. %A Crameri, Gary %A Suu-Ire, Richard %A Broder, Christopher C. %A Lembo, Tiziana %A Wang, Lin-Fa %A Fooks, Anthony R. %A Rossiter, Stephen J. %A Wood, James L. N. %A Cunningham, Andrew A. %X

The straw-coloured fruit bat, Eidolon helvum, is Africa's most widely distributed and commonly hunted fruit bat, often living in close proximity to human populations. This species has been identified as a reservoir of potentially zoonotic viruses, but uncertainties remain regarding viral transmission dynamics and mechanisms of persistence. Here we combine genetic and serological analyses of populations across Africa, to determine the extent of epidemiological connectivity among E. helvum populations. Multiple markers reveal panmixia across the continental range, at a greater geographical scale than previously recorded for any other mammal, whereas populations on remote islands were genetically distinct. Multiple serological assays reveal antibodies to henipaviruses and Lagos bat virus in all locations, including small isolated island populations, indicating that factors other than population size and connectivity may be responsible for viral persistence. Our findings have potentially important public health implications, and highlight a need to avoid disturbances that may precipitate viral spillover.

%B Nature Communications %V 4 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 30 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000328023900008 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1038/Ncomms3770 %M 2041-1723 %0 Journal Article %J Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-climate Change %D 2013 %T Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation %A Dewulf, Art %X

The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially far-reaching implications for the shape and success of adaptation projects. From the available literature on how the meaning of climate change adaptation is constructed and debated, three key dimensions of frame differences were identified: (1) the tension between adaptation and mitigation as two contrasting but interrelated perspectives on climate change; (2) the contrast between framing climate change adaptation as a tame technical problem, and framing climate change as a wicked problem of governance; and (3) the framing of climate change adaptation as a security issue, contrasting state security frames with human security frames. It is argued that the study of how climate change adaptation gets framed could be enriched by connecting these dimensions more closely with the following themes in framing research: (1) how decision-making biases that to framing issues as structured technical problems; (2) the process of scale framing by which issues are situated at a particular scale level; and (3) the challenge of dealing with the variety of frames in adaptation processes. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:321-330. doi: 10.1002/wcc.227 Conflict of interest: The author has declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

%B Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-climate Change %I WILEY-BLACKWELL %V 4 %P 321-330 %G eng %N 7 %1 ne/k010239/1 %2 ne-k010239-1 %3 24 %4 Ethiopia; Kyrgyz Republic; Nepal; Peru %# 000320400400008 %6 ESPA-2012 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1002/wcc.227 %M 1757-7780 %0 Journal Article %J Conservation & Society %D 2013 %T Ecosystem services: origins, contributions, pitfalls and alternatives %A Lele, S %A Springate-Baginski, O %A Lakerveld, R %A Deb, D %A Dash, P %X

The concept of ecosystem services (ES) has taken the environmental science and policy literature by storm, and has become almost the approach to thinking about and assessing the nature-society relationship. In this review, we ask whether and in what way the ES concept is a useful way of organising research on the nature-society relationship. We trace the evolution of the different versions of the concept and identify key points of convergence and divergence. The essence of the concept nevertheless is that the contribution of biotic nature to human well-being is unrecognised and undervalued, which results in destruction of ecosystems. We discuss why this formulation has attracted ecologists and summarise the resultant contributions to research, particularly to the understanding of indirect or regulating services. We then outline three sets of weaknesses in the ES framework: confusion over ecosystem functions and biodiversity, omission of dis-services, trade-offs and abiotic nature, and the use of an economic valuation framework to measure and aggregate human well-being. Underlying these weaknesses is a narrow problem frame that is unidimensional in its environmental concern and techno-economic in its explanation of environmental degradation. We argue that an alternative framing that embraces broader concerns and incorporates multiple explanations would be more useful, and outline how this approach to understanding the nature-society relationship may be implemented.

%B Conservation & Society %V 11 %P 343-358 %G eng %1 ne/i004661/1 %2 ne-i004661-1 %3 41 %4 India %# 000331590800003 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.4103/0972-4923.125752 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T The effects of drought on Amazonian rain forests %A Meir, P. %A Brando, P. %A Nepstad, D. %A Vasconcelos, S. %A Costa, A. C. L. %A Davidson, E. %A Almeida, S. %A Fisher, R. A. %A Sotta, E. D. %A Zarin, D. %A Cardinot, G. %X

The functioning of Amazonian rain forest ecosystems during drought has become a scientific focal point because of associated risks to forest integrity and climate. We review current understanding of drought impacts on Amazon rain forests by summarising the results from two throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments in old-growth rain forests at Caxiuanã and Tapajós National Forest Reserves, and an irrigation experiment in secondary forest, near Castanhal, Brazil. Soil physical properties strongly influenced drought impacts at each site. Over years 1 to 3 of soil moisture reduction, leaf area index declined by 20–30% at the TFE sites. Leaf physiology and tree mortality results suggested some species-based differences in drought resistance. Mortality was initially resistant to drought but increased after 3 years at Tapajós to 9%, followed by a decline. Transpiration and gross primary production were reduced under TFE at Caxiuanã by 30–40% and 12– 13%, respectively, and the maximum fire risk at Tapajós increased from 0.27 to 0.47. Drought reduced soil CO2 emissions by more than 20% at Caxiuanã and Castanhal but not at Tapajós, where N2O and CH4 emissions declined. Overall, the results indicate short-term resistance to drought with reduced productivity, but that increased mortality is likely under substantial, multiyear, reductions in rainfall. These data sets from field-scale experimental manipulations uniquely complement existing observations from Amazonia and will become increasingly powerful if the experiments are extended. Estimating the long-term (decadal-scale) impacts of continued drought on Amazonian forests will also require integrated models to couple changes in vegetation, climate, land management, and fire risk.

%I American Geophysical Union %@ 9781118670347 %G eng %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 16 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000289443400025 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1029/2008GM000718 %0 Journal Article %J Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability %D 2013 %T Elucidating the pathways between climate change, ecosystem services and poverty alleviation %A Howe, Caroline %A Suich, Helen %A van Gardingen, Paul %A Rahman, Atiq %A Mace, Georgina M %X A rapid review of the current literature on the links between climate change, ecosystem services (ES) and poverty alleviation has identified 41 papers. Of these, 19 were considered relevant as they specifically discussed the linkages between ES and poverty and the influence of climate change on that relationship. The papers reviewed focused on a limited number of ES and rarely considered multiple dimensions of poverty or the full range of climate change effects. The authors collectively recognise a complex network of relationships between ES and poverty, further complicated by the potential impacts of climate change. There is an urgent need for empirical research and interdisciplinarity, including developing a commonly understood set of definitions, in order to begin to elucidate pathways that will significantly affect the abilities of people to adapt to our rapidly changing climate. %B Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability %I Elsevier %G eng %1 espa-res-001 %2 espa-res-001 %3 9 %4 Global %# 000317326900014 %6 Directorate Research %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.cosust.2013.02.004 %M 18773435 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Policy %D 2013 %T Extraction, inequality and indigenous peoples: Insights from Bolivia %A Humphreys Bebbington, Denise %X

For most of the last two hundred years, the Bolivian Chaco has existed at the physical and political margins of the nation state. Following the discovery of large quantities of natural gas in the mid-1990s the region has become a motor of national economic growth and fertile ground for political disputes. In large measure, these disputes reflect differing approaches to the governance of the Chaco's ecosystem services and the unequal distribution of the benefits and costs that this governance might deliver. This article explores how a shift in the global valuation of one ecosystem service has interacted with valuations of a range of other ecosystem services in the Chaco and with existing "contextual" relationships of inequity to produce new, and reinforce prior, patterns of inequity. The article draws on the experiences of two indigenous populations whose territories are impacted by natural gas extraction and who have suffered long histories of discrimination and exclusion. These lessons from Bolivia have wider relevance for the governance of ecosystems affected by resource extraction. I argue that any effort to reduce inequality of outcomes produced by the governance of ecosystem services should first recognize and address asymmetric relationships and inequities in access to economic and political opportunity prior to undertaking new forms of resource exploitation rather than after the fact.

%B Environmental Science & Policy %I Elsevier %V 33 %P 438–446 %G eng %1 ne/i00341x/1 %2 ne-i00341x-1 %3 10 %4 Bolivia; Cambodia; Costa Rica; Thailand; Uganda %# 000327686500039 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.027 %M 14629011 %0 Journal Article %J Agriculture and Human Values %D 2013 %T Farmer innovation diffusion via network building: a case of winter greenhouse diffusion in China %A Wu, Bin %A Zhang, Liyan %X

Farmer innovation diffusion (FID) in the developing world is not simply the adoption of an innovation made by farmers, but a process of communication and cooperation between farmers, governments, and other stakeholders. While increasing attention has been paid to farmer innovation, little is known about how farmers’ innovations are successfully diffused. To fill this gap, this paper aims to address the following questions: What conditions are necessary for farmers to participate in FID? How is a collaborative network built up between farmers and stakeholders for this purpose? And what roles can government play? The above questions are addressed through analysis of the diffusion of winter greenhouse technology in China. A framework for analyzing a FID system is developed, and the conclusion is drawn that building mutual trust and collaborative networks is crucial for the success of FID. Furthermore, this network building can be broken down into various levels with different scales, speeds and consequences for FID: informal networks among farmers themselves, farmer-led networks, and government-facilitated networks. The success of government intervention depends upon building and enhancing the collaborative networks in which farmer leadership is crucial.

%B Agriculture and Human Values %V 30 %P 641-651 %G eng %1 ne/g008280/1 %2 ne-g008280-1 %3 6 %4 China %# 000328052300012 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s10460-013-9438-6 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Health, environment and the ecosystem services framework: A justice critique %A Few, Roger %X

This chapter critically assesses the potential contribution of an ecosystem services (ES) approach applied to the field of health. In doing so, admittedly, it likely poses more questions than it answers. Health is one of the core components of the ES framework (as articulated for example in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the UK’s ESPA funding programme), but I contend that, to date, it remains one of the most scantily scrutinized aspects of the ES approach. In an attempt to stir critical review, I intentionally cast a few ripples. From a perspective rooted in the critical social sciences and particularly in the endeavour to identify and analyse inequities of health and environmental health affecting lower-income populations in developing countries, the chapter weighs up the positives as well as the negatives of the ES framework. It acknowledges advantages the framework can bring in drawing attention to different ES benefits, but contends that an ES approach promotes certain conceptualizations of well-being-environment linkages that do not necessarily challenge and may potentially exacerbate health injustices. Justice is understood in this chapter primarily to refer to fairness in the distribution of goods and bads (resources for health, hazards to health) and fairness in the procedural mechanisms through which decisions are made that have a bearing on health and well-being.

%I Earthscan %@ 978-0-415-82539-9 %G eng %1 ne/i003282/1 %2 ne-i003282-1 %4 China; India; Uganda %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.4324/9780203395288 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal for Vitamin and Nutrition Research %D 2013 %T A high prevalence of zinc- but not iron-deficiency among women in rural Malawi: a cross-sectional study %A Siyame, Edwin W. P. %A Hurst, Rachel %A Wawer, Anna A. %A Young, Scott D. %A Broadley, Martin R. %A Chilimba, Allan D. C. %A Ander, Louise E. %A Watts, Michael J. %A Chilima, Benson %A Gondwe, Jellita %A Kang'ombe, Dalitso %A Kalimbira, Alexander %A Fairweather-Tait, Susan J. %A Bailey, Karl B. %A Gibson, Rosalind S. %X

Background: Zinc deficiency is often associated with nutritional iron deficiency (ID), and may be exacerbated by low selenium status. 

Aim: To investigate risk of iron and zinc deficiency in women with contrasting selenium status. 

Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 1-day diet composites and blood samples were collected from self-selected Malawian women aged 18-50 years from low- (Zombwe) (n=60) and high-plant-available soil selenium (Mikalango) (n=60) districts. Diets were analyzed for trace elements and blood for biomarkers.

Results: Zinc deficiency (>90 %) was greater than ID anemia (6 %), or ID (5 %), attributed to diets low in zinc (median 5.7 mg/day) with high phytate:zinc molar ratios (20.0), but high in iron (21.0 mg/day) from soil contaminant iron. Zombwe compared to Mikalango women had lower (p<0.05) intakes of selenium (6.5 vs. 55.3 mu g/day), zinc (4.8 vs. 6.4 mg/day), iron (16.6 vs. 29.6 mg/day), lower plasma selenium (0.72 vs. 1.60 mu mol/L), and higher body iron (5.3 vs. 3.8 mg/kg), although plasma zinc was similar (8.60 vs. 8.87 mu mol/L). Body iron and plasma zinc were positive determinants of hemoglobin.

Conclusion: Risk of zinc deficiency was higher than ID and was shown not to be associated with selenium status. Plasma zinc was almost as important as body iron as a hemoglobin determinant.

%B International Journal for Vitamin and Nutrition Research %V 83 %P 176-187 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/i003347/1 %2 ne-i003347-1 %3 9 %4 Malawi %# 000337664200005 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1024/0300-9831/a000158 %M 0300-9831 %0 Journal Article %J Land Use Policy %D 2013 %T How does "Free, Prior and Informed Consent" (FPIC) impact social equity? Lessons from mining and forestry and their implications for REDD+ %A Mahanty, Sango %A McDermott, Constance L. %X

The principle of "Free, Prior and Informed Consent" (FPIC) is promoted through international agreements and safeguards in order to strengthen social equity in resource management by requiring consent from indigenous and/or local communities prior to actions that affect their land and resource rights. Based on early experiences with implementing FPIC standards in mining and forestry, we examine how FPIC has impacted social equity and why. In both sectors FPIC was first operationalized through non-governmental standards that revealed ambiguities surrounding its definition and implementation. In mining, FPIC was first codified in the standards of financial investors, while in forestry FPIC emerged within competing market-based certification schemes, resulting in contrasting definitions. In both sectors, contextual factors such as government laws and policies, the socio-political environment and the overall distribution of rights and resources strongly shape the impacts of FPIC on equity particularly for actors without strong legal rights. These findings are significant for emerging arenas such as REDD+, where there is much debate around the role of governments, financial institutions and market-based actors in applying FPIC for social equity outcomes.

%B Land Use Policy %I Elsevier %V 35 %P 406-416 %G eng %1 ne/i00341x/1 %2 ne-i00341x-1 %3 25 %4 Bolivia; Cambodia; Costa Rica; Thailand; Uganda %# 000324657200039 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.06.014 %M 02648377 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Human resilience in the face of biodiversity tipping points at local and regional scales %A Howard, Patricia %X

Biodiversity and cultural diversity are intertwined. The threats to biodiversity are already observable and are accelerating. The spread of non-native species is an under-examined threat to biodiversity and to food production. Biodiversity tipping points may most likely appear at the regional scale, as in the drying of the Amazon. The failure of ecosystem integrity and inherent resilience offers a further threat, and the reaction of humans to all of these challenges adds fuel to the fire. Over one-third of the whole population depends on biodiversity — and help to maintain it. Yet part of this vital group is being displaced, losing their cultural integrity, and their language. The tipping points of biodiversity loss are also tipping points of cultural distinctiveness loss.

%I British Academy 2013 %G eng %K http://britishacademy.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.5871/bacad/9780197265536.001.0001/upso-9780197265536-chapter-6#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M147 %1 ne/i004149/1 %2 ne-i004149-1 %4 Australia; India; South Africa %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Frontiers In Public Health %D 2013 %T The importance of veterinary policy in preventing the emergence and re-emergence of zoonotic disease: examining the case of human African trypanosomiasis in Uganda %A Okello, AL %A Welburn, SC %X

Rapid changes in human behavior, resource utilization, and other extrinsic environmental factors continue to threaten the current distribution of several endemic and historically neglected zoonoses in many developing regions worldwide. There are numerous examples of zoonotic diseases which have circulated within relatively localized geographical areas for some time, before emerging into new regions as a result of changing human, environmental, or behavioral dynamics. While the world’s focus is currently on the Ebola virus gaining momentum in western Africa, another pertinent example of this phenomenon is zoonotic human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), endemic to south and eastern Africa, and spread via infected cattle. In recent years, the ongoing northwards spread of this disease in the country has posed a serious public health threat to the human population of Uganda, increasing the pressure on both individual families and government services to control the disease. Moreover, the emergence of HAT into new areas of Uganda in recent years exemplifies the important role of veterinary policy in mitigating the severe human health and economic impacts of zoonotic disease. The systemic challenges surrounding the development and enforcement of veterinary policy described here are similar across sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the necessity to consider and support zoonotic disease control in broader human and animal health systems strengthening and associated development programs on the continent.

%B Frontiers In Public Health %V 2 %P 218 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.3389/fpubh.2014.00218 %M 2296-2565 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Innovative farmers in ecologically fragile areas of China: Profiles and characteristics of innovative farmers in Yanchi, Ningxia %A Li Chen %A Ting Zuo %A Tianlai Gou %A Haofang Chai %A Fengyang Li %A Ronnie Vernooy %I Routledge %@ 9780415665674 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/products/9780415665674 %1 ne/g008280/1 %2 ne-g008280-1 %4 China %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Introduction: Linking ecosystem services with environmental justice %A Sikor, Thomas %X

Humankind benefits from a multitude of resources and processes that are supplied by ecosystems, and collectively these benefits are known as ecosystem services. Interest in this topic has grown exponentially over the last decade, as biologists and economists have tried to quantify these benefits to justify management interventions. Yet, as this book demonstrates, the implications for justice and injustice have rarely been explored and works on environmental justice are only now addressing the importance of ecosystem services.

%I Earthscan %@ 978-0-415-82539-9 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/The-Justices-and-Injustices-of-Ecosystem-Services/Sikor/p/book/9780415825405# %1 ne/i003282/1 %2 ne-i003282-1 %4 China; India; Uganda %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Harvard Review Of Latin America %D 2013 %T Investing in Latin America's water factories: Incentives and institutions for climate compatible development %A Asquith, N %X

Trouble had been brewing in the Bolivian village of Santa Rosa for weeks. That morning, one of Serafin Carrasco’s cows had been killed, the neighbors angry that Serafin and his four colleagues were starting a watershed forest conservation program. “We should wait a few months for the tension to disappear,” the four others had agreed. Although alone in his determination, Serafin was in no mood to give up. “No one will tell me what I can and cannot do on my land” he declared, pounding on the table. “Every year the rains fail and every year there is less water in the river. I will conserve my forest in order to protect our water and I will ask the people downstream to help me do so.”

%B Harvard Review Of Latin America %V 2013 %P 21-24 %G eng %K http://revista.drclas.harvard.edu/book/investing-latin-americas-water-factories %1 ne/i00436x/1 %2 ne-i00436x-1 %4 Bolivia %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Just conservation? On the fairness of sharing benefits %A Martin, Adrian %A Akol, Anne %X

Humankind benefits from a multitude of resources and processes that are supplied by ecosystems, and collectively these benefits are known as ecosystem services. Interest in this topic has grown exponentially over the last decade, as biologists and economists have tried to quantify these benefits to justify management interventions. Yet, as this book demonstrates, the implications for justice and injustice have rarely been explored and works on environmental justice are only now addressing the importance of ecosystem services.

%I Earthscan %@ 978-0-415-82539-9 %G eng %1 ne/i003282/1 %2 ne-i003282-1 %4 China; India; Uganda %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.4324/9780203395288 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T The justices and injustices of ecosystem services %A Sikor, Thomas %A Fisher, Janet %A Martin, Adrian %A Few, Roger %X

Humankind benefits from a multitude of resources and processes that are supplied by ecosystems, and collectively these benefits are known as ecosystem services. Interest in this topic has grown exponentially over the last decade, as biologists and economists have tried to quantify these benefits to justify management interventions. Yet, as this book demonstrates, the implications for justice and injustice have rarely been explored and works on environmental justice are only now addressing the importance of ecosystem services. The authors establish important new middle ground in arguments between conservationists and critics of market-based interventions such as Payment for Ecosystem Services. Neither can environmental management be separated from justice concerns, as some conservationists like to believe, nor is it in fundamental opposition to justice, as critics like to put it. The book develops this novel interpretation of justice in environmental management through analyses of prominent governance interventions and the conceptual underpinnings of the ecosystem services framework. Key examples described are revenue-sharing around protected areas and REDD+ for forest ecosystems. The analyses demonstrate that interventions create opportunities for enhancing social justice, yet also reveal critical design features that cause ostensibly technical interventions to generate injustices.

%I Earthscan %@ 978-0-415-82539-9 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/The-Justices-and-Injustices-of-Ecosystem-Services/Sikor/p/book/9780415825405#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M280 %1 ne/i003282/1 %2 ne-i003282-1 %4 China; India; Uganda %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Global Change Biology %D 2013 %T Making predictions of mangrove deforestation: a comparison of two methods in Kenya %A Rideout, Alasdair J R %A Joshi, Neha P %A Viergever, Karin M %A Huxham, Mark %A Briers, Robert A %X

Deforestation of mangroves is of global concern given their importance for carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling and the provision of other ecosystem services, but the links between rates of loss and potential drivers or risk factors are rarely evaluated. Here, we identified key drivers of mangrove loss in Kenya and compared two different approaches to predicting risk. Risk factors tested included various possible predictors of anthropogenic deforestation, related to population, suitability for land use change and accessibility. Two approaches were taken to modelling risk; a quantitative statistical approach and a qualitative categorical ranking approach. A quantitative model linking rates of loss to risk factors was constructed based on generalized least squares regression and using mangrove loss data from 1992 to 2000. Population density, soil type and proximity to roads were the most important predictors. In order to validate this model it was used to generate a map of losses of Kenyan mangroves predicted to have occurred between 2000 and 2010. The qualitative categorical model was constructed using data from the same selection of variables, with the coincidence of different risk factors in particular mangrove areas used in an additive manner to create a relative risk index which was then mapped. Quantitative predictions of loss were significantly correlated with the actual loss of mangroves between 2000 and 2010 and the categorical risk index values were also highly correlated with the quantitative predictions. Hence, in this case the relatively simple categorical modelling approach was of similar predictive value to the more complex quantitative model of mangrove deforestation. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed, and the implications for mangroves are outlined.

%B Global Change Biology %I Wiley-Blackwell %G eng %1 ne/i003401/1 %2 ne-i003401-1 %3 5 %4 Kenya %# 000325567100022 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1111/gcb.12176 %M 1365-2486 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Media coverage of tipping points %A O'Riordan, Timothy %E Lenton, Timothy %X

Humanity tends to be fearful of change, yet change is our constant companion. What seems to be new about change is that climate science and linked policy research are indicating the possibility of abrupt and hazardous transformations. Yet change can be exhilarating if embraced with a spirit of creativity. In personal and working lives, and in business and public institutions, change is not just accepted, it is often actively sought. It is central to any notion of modernity. The media struggle to imagine or represent potential broad system changes, yet are constantly in search of apparently new ‘stories’. This volume contains plenty of examples of the kinds of difficult new knowledge that climate research and other Earth system adjustments are generating. Such alterations are novel threats, and have at times, generated fearful accounts of possible futures. However, there are also many ideas, innovations, as well as long-established practices that can permit human thriving, whatever may come its way. In this chapter I seek to cover both the media dilemma of how to inform and engage yet not panic, and the growing body of optimistic research which reveals how much humanity can cope. Here I consider the ways in which the media might limit or enable learning and debate about the causes and consequences of climate change tipping points, and of ways of adapting to them. It is written during a period of widespread ‘climate change fatigue’ when cynicism and suspicion infect influential portions of the media and substantial minorities of public opinion. Yet it also takes place at a time when an unprecedented body of intellectual and creative effort is going into making sense of anticipating and responding to global environmental changes more generally. In short, humanity’s relationship with the non-human natural world is being dramatically revised in a very short space of time. If that isn’t a story: what is? I begin with a summary of six distinct features of the cultural politics of climate change. These are the ground-conditions for media production and consumption. I subsequently consider the quality of media performance around these issues. This includes a discussion of the scope of media coverage about, and for, those people who are most vulnerable to the social and physical impacts of abrupt climate change. In this chapter I conclude with a discussion of how society might balance media accounts of potentially doom laden environmental presents and futures which have been at the core of environmental politics in the past, with stories from the ‘islands of successful transformation’ referred to in the final chapter.

%I Oxford University Press %@ 978-0-19-726553-6 %G eng %1 ne/i004149/1 %2 ne-i004149-1 %4 Australia; India; South Africa %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5871/bacad/9780197265536.003.0019 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Migration as an adaptation strategy to environmental change %A Adger, Neil %A Adams, Helen %X

A chapter in the World Social Science Report produced by the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and UNESCO on the different ways that migration interacts with environmental change.

%I OECD Publishing %P 259 %@ 9789264203402 %G eng %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1787/9789264203419-en %0 Journal Article %J Conservation Letters %D 2013 %T Payments for ecosystem services and the fatal attraction of win-win solutions %A Muradian, R. %A Arsel, M. %A Pellegrini, L. %A Adaman, F. %A Aguilar, B. %A Agarwal, B. %A Corbera, E. %A de Blas, D. Ezzine %A Farley, J. %A Froger, G. %A Garcia-Frapolli, E. %A Gómez-Baggethun, E. %A Gowdy, J. %A Kosoy, N. %A Le Coq, J.F. %A Leroy, P. %A May, P. %A Méral, P. %A Mibielli, P. %A Norgaard, R. %A Ozkaynak, B. %A Pascual, U. %A Pengue, W. %A Perez, M. %A Pesche, D. %A Pirard, R. %A Ramos-Martin, J. %A Rival, L. %A Saenz, F. %A Van Hecken, G. %A Vatn, A. %A Vira, B. %A Urama, K. %X

In this commentary we critically discuss the suitability of payments for ecosystem services and the most important challenges they face. While such instruments can play a role in improving environmental governance, we argue that over-reliance on payments as win-win solutions might lead to ineffective outcomes, similar to earlier experience with integrated conservation and development projects. Our objective is to raise awareness, particularly among policy makers and practitioners, about the limitations of such instruments and to encourage a dialogue about the policy contexts in which they might be appropriate.

%B Conservation Letters %I Blackwell Publishing %G eng %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 114 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000323041600007 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2012.00309.x %M 1755263X %0 Journal Article %J Forest Ecology and Management %D 2013 %T Propagating uncertainty to estimates of above-ground biomass for Kenyan mangroves: A scaling procedure from tree to landscape level %A Cohen, R. %A Kaino, J. %A Okello, J.A. %A Bosire, J.O. %A Kairo, J.G. %A Huxham, M. %A Mencuccini, M. %X

Mangroves are globally important carbon stores and as such have potential for inclusion in future forestbased climate change mitigation strategies such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+). Participation in REDD+ will require developing countries to produce robust estimates of forest above-ground biomass (AGB) accompanied by an appropriate measure of uncertainty. Final estimates of AGB should account for known sources of uncertainty (measurement and predictive) particularly when estimating AGB at large spatial scales. In this study, mixed-effects models were used to account for variability in the allometric relationship of Kenyan mangroves due to species and site effects. A generic biomass equation for Kenyan mangroves was produced in addition to a set of species-site specific equations. The generic equation has potential for broad application as it can be used to predict the AGB of new trees where there is no pre-existing knowledge of the specific species-site allometric relationship: the most commonly encountered scenario in practical biomass studies. Predictions of AGB using the mixed-effects model showed good correspondence with the original observed values of AGB although displayed a poorer fit at higher AGB values, suggesting caution in extrapolation. A strong relationship was found between the observed and predicted values of AGB using an independent validation dataset from the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique (R2 = 0.96, p = < 0.001). The simulation based approach to uncertainty propagation employed in the current study produced estimates of AGB at different spatial scales (tree – landscape level) accompanied by a realistic measure of the total uncertainty. Estimates of mangrove AGB in Kenya are presented at the plot, regional and landscape level accompanied by 95% prediction intervals. The 95% prediction intervals for landscape level estimates of total AGB stocks suggest that between 5.4 and 7.2 megatonnes of AGB is currently held in Kenyan mangrove forests.

%B Forest Ecology and Management %I Elsevier %V 310 %P 968-982 %G eng %1 ne/i003401/1 %2 ne-i003401-1 %3 11 %4 Kenya %# 000330601000100 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.047 %M 0378-1127 %0 Journal Article %J Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology %D 2013 %T Public perceptions of papyrus: community appraisal of wetland ecosystem services at Lake Naivasha, Kenya %A Morrison, Edward H. J. %A Upton, Caroline %A Pacini, Nic %A Odhiambo-K'oyooh, Ken %A Harper, David M. %X

Papyrus wetlands form ecological buffer zones, protecting lake shallows from sedimentation and open water from eutrophication. Multiple wetland processes and functions also support the livelihoods of adjacent riparian communities. However, ecohydrologists have in the past typically placed insufficient emphasis on social and cultural factors operating within the catchments that they study. Here we outline a process that better integrates social science research methods within ecohydrology, using the ‘language’ of ecosystem services to prioritise objectives for the rehabilitation of papyrus wetlands at Lake Naivasha in Kenya. Reference is made to Lake Victoria for comparison and to illustrate how and why stakeholders’ perceptions of wetland services may vary over even short distances.

%B Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology %V 13 %P 135-147 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/i003266/1 %2 ne-i003266-1 %4 Burundi; Congo, Dem. Rep; Congo, Rep.; Ethiopia; Kenya; Malawi; Mozambique; Rwanda; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.ecohyd.2013.03.008 %M 1642-3593 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Quantifying and valuing ecosystem services: an application of ARIES to the San Pedro River basin, USA %A Bagstad, Kenneth %A Johnson, Gary %A Semmens, Darius %A Villa, Ferdinando %X

Book chapter on the validation of the ecosystem services approach adopted in the project

%I Edwar Elgar %@ Unknown %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.4337/9781781951514.00017 %0 Journal Article %J PLos One %D 2013 %T Quantifying trends in disease impact to produce a consistent and reproducible definition of an emerging infectious disease %A Funk, Sebastian %A Bogich, Tiffany L. %A Jones, Kate E. %A Kilpatrick, A. Marm %A Daszak, Peter %X

The proper allocation of public health resources for research and control requires quantification of both a disease's current burden and the trend in its impact. Infectious diseases that have been labeled as "emerging infectious diseases'' (EIDs) have received heightened scientific and public attention and resources. However, the label 'emerging' is rarely backed by quantitative analysis and is often used subjectively. This can lead to over-allocation of resources to diseases that are incorrectly labelled "emerging,'' and insufficient allocation of resources to diseases for which evidence of an increasing or high sustained impact is strong. We suggest a simple quantitative approach, segmented regression, to characterize the trends and emergence of diseases. Segmented regression identifies one or more trends in a time series and determines the most statistically parsimonious split(s) (or joinpoints) in the time series. These joinpoints in the time series indicate time points when a change in trend occurred and may identify periods in which drivers of disease impact change. We illustrate the method by analyzing temporal patterns in incidence data for twelve diseases. This approach provides a way to classify a disease as currently emerging, re-emerging, receding, or stable based on temporal trends, as well as to pinpoint the time when the change in these trends happened. We argue that quantitative approaches to defining emergence based on the trend in impact of a disease can, with appropriate context, be used to prioritize resources for research and control. Implementing this more rigorous definition of an EID will require buy-in and enforcement from scientists, policy makers, peer reviewers and journal editors, but has the potential to improve resource allocation for global health.

%B PLos One %V 8 %G eng %N 8 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 5 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000323221500010 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0069951 %M 1932-6203 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T REDD+: Justice effects of technical design %A Sikor, Thomas %X

Book chapter.

%I Earthscan %@ 978-0-415-82539-9 %G eng %K https://www.routledge.com/The-Justices-and-Injustices-of-Ecosystem-Services/Sikor/p/book/9780415825405#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M236 %1 ne/i003282/1 %2 ne-i003282-1 %4 China; India; Uganda %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2013 %T Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+): transaction costs of six Peruvian projects %A Rendon Thompson, Olivia %X

This article describes a study examining the costs of setting up a series of carbon-based conservation projects in southern Peru. The reported values provide a basis for estimating the cost of setting up similar projects across the whole of the Peruvian Amazon in order to meet government conservation objectives.

%B Ecology and Society %V 18 %G eng %1 ne/g00840x/1 %2 ne-g00840x-1 %3 13 %4 Peru %# 000317184800015 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/ES-05239-180117 %M 1708-3087 %0 Journal Article %J Land use policy %D 2013 %T Responses to climate change and farming policies by rural communities in northern China: A report on field observation and farmers’ perception in dryland north Shaanxi and Ningxia %A Sjögersten , S. %X

To understand climate impacts on farming practice in poor areas of China, field observation and village reconnaissance took place in the summer of 2009 in three selected counties of Shaanxi and Ningxia Province, northern China. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with householders in rural communities aiming to explore the impacts of recent climate and environmental changes and the role of land management practices on individual and community livelihood incomes as well as individual understanding and engagement with these concepts. The findings were complemented with secondary agricultural, economic and climatic data from the study regions. Respondents argued that land conversion programmes improved income potential, sustainability of livestock grazing and environmental quality in the region. However, water availability was thought to increasingly limit agriculture and human wellbeing in some of the regions with water resources becoming notably scarcer. Understanding of climate change as a concept varied amongst farmers potentially hampering the ability to adapt existing farming practices to maximise livelihood incomes sustainably. Positive effects of the government's land management schemes were unevenly distributed within villages and amongst regions, often linked to a lack of knowledge transfer and shared resources resulting in marginalised households and/or communities. Off-farm labour (in many cases relating to young adult rural to urban migration) appears a crucial source of income for households in the study region. Respondents in Ningxia expressed reservations about the future prospect of productive farming if the water availability continued to diminish.

%B Land use policy %I Science Direct %V 32 %G eng %1 ne/g008280/1 %2 ne-g008280-1 %3 13 %4 China %# 000315426600013 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.09.014 %M 0264-8377 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Retreading negotiations on equity in environmental governance: case studies contrasting the evolution of ABS and REDD+ %A Ituarte-Lima, Claudia %X

Irrespective of the type or scale of economy, biodiversity loss and climate change are over-riding concerns for all countries. In this context, the role of tropical rainforests, which host important biodiversity and hold large reserves of carbon, cannot be overemphasised. In 2009, the Bali Action Plan recommended the development of a market-based incentive mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Since then, there has been much discussion and debate over the ethical and equity aspects of such arrangements to various stakeholders. Concerns over equity in the realm of the environment or even specifically biodiversity are not new in the international arena. Lengthy negotiations related to the development of a protocol on access to genetic resources and equitable sharing of benefits arising from their utilisation (ABS) within the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) process were initiated in 2004. What the discussions during the intervening period have taught us are useful lessons to manage expectations on rewards from incentives. These have to be tempered with realistic notions of rights of various stakeholders over bio-cultural resources, knowledge and property. Given that REDD-plus agreements can also be categorised as pertaining to bio-cultural agreements, we think that it would be useful for these discussions to take cognisance of some of the debates, especially those related to equity, within the ABS context.

%I Edward Elgar Publishing %C Surrey and Northampton %P 178-208 %@ 9781782546887 %G eng %1 ne/i00341x/1 %2 ne-i00341x-1 %4 Bolivia; Cambodia; Costa Rica; Thailand; Uganda %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.4337/9781782546894 %0 Book Section %D 2013 %T Servicios ambientales y justicia hidrica %A Budds, Jessica %E Arroyo, A. %E Boelens, R.A. %E Swyngedouw, E. %I Abya-Yala, Justicia Hídrica, IEP Instituto de Estudios Peruanos %@ 9789942091543 %G eng %K http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=pOcnngEACAAJ %1 ne/i004718/1 %2 ne-i004718-1 %4 Bolivia; Colombia; Ecuador; Peru %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J The Solutions Journal %D 2013 %T Soap security: African home economics after the biofuel hype %A van der Horst, Dan %A Vermeylen, Saskia %X

After failed efforts by biofuel investors (mostly from developed countries) to commercialise jatropha curcas production, Zambian farmers were left with unsold seeds from their existing jatropha trees. Action research with a farming community (started at their own request) shows that soap making from jatropha is 2-3 times more profitable than selling the seeds for biodiesel production. Farmers (especially women) were very keen on their home-made jatropha soap, and were using it in stead of industrially produced soap and detergent. Four out of five households reported that they regularly ran out of soap for several days per month. This exposed them to discomfort and increased risks of disease (especially gastro-enteritis). Home-made jatropha soap can help to bridge such gaps in disease exposure, it can reduce household expenditure on soap, it can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (by displacing detergent) and it can provide a value added product which could be sold or bartered when production exceeds family needs.

%B The Solutions Journal %I Solutions Journal %V 3 %G eng %K https://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/article/soap-security-african-home-economics-after-the-biofuel-hype/# %N 6 %1 ne/i003819/1 %2 ne-i003819-1 %4 Zambia %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %M 2154-0926 %0 Journal Article %J Social Science & Medicine %D 2013 %T The social and political lives of zoonotic disease models: narratives, science and policy %A Scoones, Ian %X

Zoonotic diseases currently pose both major health threats and complex scientific and policy challenges, to which modelling is increasingly called to respond. In this article we argue that the challenges are best met by combining multiple models and modelling approaches that elucidate the various epidemiological, ecological and social processes at work. These models should not be understood as neutral science informing policy in a linear manner, but as having social and political lives: social, cultural and political norms and values that shape their development and which they carry and project. We develop and illustrate this argument in relation to the cases of H5N1 avian influenza and Ebola, exploring for each the range of modelling approaches deployed and the ways they have been co-constructed with a particular politics of policy. Addressing the complex, uncertain dynamics of zoonotic disease requires such social and political lives to be made explicit in approaches that aim at triangulation rather than integration, and plural and conditional rather than singular forms of policy advice.

%B Social Science & Medicine %I Elsevier %V 88 %G eng %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 41 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000320477900002 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.03.017 %M 0277-9536 %0 Journal Article %J Scientific Reports %D 2013 %T Soil-type influences human selenium status and underlies widespread selenium deficiency risks in Malawi %A Hurst, Rachel %A Siyame, Edwin W. P. %A Young, Scott D. %A Chilimba, Allan D. C. %A Joy, Edward J. M. %A Black, Colin R. %A Ander, E. Louise %A Watts, Michael J. %A Chilima, Benson %A Gondwe, Jellita %A Kang ombe, Dalitso %A Stein, Alexander J. %A Fairweather-Tait, Susan J. %A Gibson, Rosalind S. %A Kalimbira, Alexander A. %A Broadley, Martin R. %X

Selenium (Se) is an essential human micronutrient with critical roles in immune functioning and antioxidant defence. Estimates of dietary Se intakes and status are scarce for Africa although crop surveys indicate deficiency is probably widespread in Malawi. Here we show that Se deficiency is likely endemic in Malawi based on the Se status of adults consuming food from contrasting soil types. These data are consistent with food balance sheets and composition tables revealing that >80% of the Malawi population is at risk of dietary Se inadequacy. Risk of dietary Se inadequacy is >60% in seven other countries in Southern Africa, and 22% across Africa as a whole. Given that most Malawi soils cannot supply sufficient Se to crops for adequate human nutrition, the cost and benefits of interventions to alleviate Se deficiency should be determined; for example, Se-enriched nitrogen fertilisers could be adopted as in Finland.

%B Scientific Reports %I Nature Publishing Group %G eng %1 ne/i003347/1 %2 ne-i003347-1 %3 25 %4 Malawi %# 000315938400001 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1038/srep01425 %M 2045-2322 %0 Journal Article %J Ecosystem Services %D 2013 %T Spatial dynamics of ecosystem service flows: A comprehensive approach to quantifying actual services %A Bagstad, Kenneth J. %A Johnson, Gary W. %A Voigt, Brian %A Villa, Ferdinando %X

Recent ecosystem services research has highlighted the importance of spatial connectivity between ecosystems and their beneficiaries. Despite this need, a systematic approach to ecosystem service flow quantification has not yet emerged. In this article, we present such an approach, which we formalize as a class of agent-based models termed ‘‘Service Path Attribution Networks’’ (SPANs). These models, developed as part of the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) project, expand on ecosystem services classification terminology introduced by other authors. Conceptual elements needed to support flow modeling include a service’s rivalness, its flow routing type (e.g., through hydrologic or transportation networks, lines of sight, or other approaches), and whether the benefit is supplied by an ecosystem’s provision of a beneficial flow to people or by absorption of a detrimental flow before it reaches them. We describe our implementation of the SPAN framework for five ecosystem services and discuss how to generalize the approach to additional services. SPAN model outputs include maps of ecosystem service provision, use, depletion, and flows under theoretical, possible, actual, inaccessible, and blocked conditions. We highlight how these different ecosystem service flow maps could be used to support various types of decision making for conservation and resource management planning.

%B Ecosystem Services %I Elsevier %V 4 %P 117-125 %G eng %1 ne/j002267/1 %2 ne-j002267-1 %3 85 %4 Colombia; Malawi; Peru %# 000209520700013 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.ecoser.2012.07.012 %M 2212-0416 %0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %D 2013 %T Strengthening conceptual foundations: Analysing frameworks for ecosystem services and poverty alleviation research %A Fisher, Janet A. %A Patenaude, Genevieve %A Meir, Patrick %A Nightingale, Andrea J. %A Rounsevell, Mark D.A. %A Williams, Mathew %A Woodhouse, Iain H. %X

A research agenda is currently developing around the linkages between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation. It is therefore timely to consider which conceptual frameworks can best support research at this nexus. Our review of frameworks synthesises existing research on poverty/environment linkages that should not be overlooked with the adoption of the topical language of ecosystem services. A total of nine conceptual frameworks were selected on the basis of relevance. These were reviewed and compared to assess their ability to illuminate the provision of ecosystem services, the condition, determinants and dynamics of poverty, and political economy factors that mediate the relationship between poverty and ecosystem services. The paper synthesises the key contributions of each of these frameworks, and the gaps they expose in one another, drawing out lessons that can inform emerging research. Research on poverty alleviation must recognize social differentiation, and be able to distinguish between constraints of access and constraints of aggregate availability of ecosystem services. Different frameworks also highlight important differences between categories of services, their pathways of production, and their contribution to poverty alleviation. Furthermore, we highlight that it is important to acknowledge the limits of ecosystem services for poverty alleviation, given evidence that ecosystem services tend to be more associated with poverty prevention than reduction. We conclude by reflecting on the relative merits of dynamic Social–Ecological Systems frameworks versus more static checklists, and suggest that research on ecosystem services and poverty alleviation would be well served by a new framework distilling insights from the frameworks we review.

%B Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %I Elsevier %G eng %1 ne/i002952/1 %2 ne-i002952-1 %3 31 %4 Brazil; Malawi; Nepal; Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000328179400027 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.04.002 %M 09593780 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Evidence %D 2013 %T A systematic map protocol: which components or attributes of biodiversity affect which dimensions of poverty? %A Roe, Dilys %A Sandbrook, Chris %A Fancourt, Max %A Schulte, Bjorn %A Munroe, Robert %A Sibanda, Mxolisi %X

Background:

The assumption that biodiversity and ecosystem services can help in efforts to tackle poverty is implicit in international targets set for biodiversity conservation (by the Convention on Biological Diversity) and for poverty reduction (enshrined in the Millennium Development Goals). The 2010 United Nations General Assembly further stressed the linkage, claiming: “preserving biodiversity is inseparable from the fight against poverty.” Nevertheless the evidence-base on biodiversity – poverty links is not as robust as one might assume. Studies in the academic and “grey” literature have used diverse methods and metrics, different components of biodiversity and dimensions of poverty have been studied, and the scale of impact has rarely been assessed.

Methods/Design:

This systematic map protocol sets out the proposed methodology for exploring the primary question: Which components or attributes of biodiversity affect (positively or negatively) which dimensions of poverty? The overall aim of our review is to unpack the broad claims and assumptions that are made about biodiversity-poverty links such as those above, and provide researchers, policy-makers and practitioners with a methodical overview of the type and quantity of evidence. The online databases SCOPUS and Web of Science will be searched for relevant peer-reviewed literature using search terms and Boolean search operators. Relevant grey literature will be identified through the membership and resources of the Poverty and Conservation Learning Group. The literature searches will be followed by a title and abstract level search using inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data will be extracted from the final list of papers using a questionnaire established through literature review and an expert workshop. A report and online database will be produced based on the results of the review.

Keywords: Biodiversity, Nature conservation, Wildlife conservation, Poverty, Livelihoods

%B Environmental Evidence %I BioMed Central %V 2 %P 8 %G eng %N 1 %1 eirg-2011-173 %2 eirg-2011-173 %4 Global %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1186/2047-2382-2-8 %M 2047-2382 %0 Journal Article %J Hydrolink %D 2013 %T Understanding climate change livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh %A Nicholls, R.J. %A Hutton, C.W. %A Lazar, A.N. %A Rahman, M.M. %A Salehin, M. %A Ghosh, T. %X

In recent years, there has been a growing concern about the effect of climate-induced sea-level rise on the environment, population and livelihoods around the worlds’ coastline. However, these issues are highly spatially variable, as sea level is only one of several drivers of coastal change (Nicholls et al 2007). It was recognised in the 1980s (Milliman et al 1989) that deltaic environments are amongst the most vulnerable coastal areas to such rise because of their low altitude and often large, poor and growing population. Threats act on multiple scales including global (e.g. sea level rise), regional (e.g. catchment management reducing water and sediment input) and delta plain (e.g. water extraction, sediment starvation, natural and more importantly human-induced subsidence) scales. The result of these changes might result in an increase in flooding, salinization of water resources and soil, land loss due to erosion, subsidence and inundation, and degrading the quality of ecosystem services such as crop productivity, fish stocks and protection against storm surges. Thus, delta environments are complex social-environmental systems where the change is only partially driven by sea level rise and climate change, and human-induced development activities are also critical drivers.

%B Hydrolink %V 2 %P 40-42 %G eng %K https://www.iahr.org/site/cms/newsarticle.asp?chapter=1&nid=311 %1 ne/j002755/1 %2 ne-j002755-1 %4 Bangladesh; India %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Paleolimnology %D 2013 %T Why 'Future Earth' needs lake sediment studies %A Dearing, John A. %X

The new 'Future Earth' Framework and International Council of Science (ICSU) Grand Challenges highlight the need to combine environmental and complexity sciences. An improved understanding of trajectories, interactions, fast and slow processes, alternate steady states and thresholds in key natural and social phenomena are vital to the design of sustainable management strategies. Lake sediment records can provide highly resolved time-series of data that give essential long term perspectives for complex socio-ecological systems, especially at regional scales. This means that these records have important roles in addressing the 'Future Earth' agenda, especially for 'Forecasting', 'Observing' and 'Confining' environmental change within the proposed interdisciplinary themes of Dynamic Planet and Global Development.

%B Journal of Paleolimnology %V 49 %P 537-545 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/i002960/1 %2 ne-i002960-1 %3 7 %4 China %# 000316886900015 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1007/s10933-013-9690-1 %M 0921-2728 %0 Journal Article %J Natural Resources Forum %D 2013 %T Why keep lions instead of livestock? Assessing wildlife tourism-based payment for ecosystem services involving herders in the Maasai Mara, Kenya %A Osano, Philip M. %A Said, Mohammed Y. %A de Leeuw, Jan %A Ndiwa, Nicholas %A Kaelo, Dickson %A Schomers, Sarah %A Birner, Regina %A Ogutu, Joseph O. %X

This paper examines the effects of wildlife tourism-based payments for ecosystem services (PES) on poverty, wealth inequality and the livelihoods of herders in the Maasai Mara Ecosystem in south-western Kenya. It uses the case of Olare Orok Conservancy PES programme in which pastoral landowners have agreed to voluntary resettlement and exclusion of livestock grazing from their sub-divided lands. These lands are set aside for wildlife tourism, in return for direct monetary payments by a coalition of five commercial tourism operators. Results show that, on the positive side, PES is the most equitable income source that promotes income diversification and buffers households from the livestock income declines during periods of severe drought, such as in 2008-2009. Without accounting for the opportunity costs, the magnitude of the PES cash transfer to households is, on average, sufficient to close the poverty gap. The co-benefits of PES implementation include the creation of employment opportunities in the conservancy and provision of social services. There is however a need to mitigate the negative effects of PES, including the widening inequality in income between PES and non-PES households and the leakages resulting from the displacement of settlements and livestock to currently un-subdivided pastoral commons.

%B Natural Resources Forum %I WILEY-BLACKWELL %V 37 %P 242-256 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/i003673/1 %2 ne-i003673-1 %3 5 %4 Ethiopia; Kenya; Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000330131100004 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1111/1477-8947.12027 %M 0165-0203 %0 Journal Article %J Global Change Biology %D 2012 %T Agricultural encroachment: implications for carbon sequestration in tropical African wetlands %A Saunders, Matthew J. %A Kansiime, Frank %A Jones, Michael B. %X

Tropical wetlands have been shown to exhibit high rates of net primary productivity and may therefore play an important role in global climate change mitigation through carbon assimilation and sequestration. Many permanently flooded areas of tropical East Africa are dominated by the highly productive C4 emergent macrophyte sedge, Cyperus papyrus L. (papyrus). However, increasing population densities around wetland margins in East Africa are reducing the extent of papyrus coverage due to the planting of subsistence crops such as Colocasia esculenta (cocoyam). In this paper, we assess the impact of this land use change on the carbon cycle and in particular the impacts of land conversion on net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange. Eddy covariance techniques were used, on a campaign basis, to measure fluxes of carbon dioxide over both papyrus and cocoyam dominated wetlands located on the Ugandan shore of Lake Victoria. Peak rates of net photosynthetic CO2 assimilation, derived from monthly diurnal averages of net ecosystem exchange, of 28–35 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 and 15–20 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 were recorded in the papyrus and cocoyam wetlands, respectively, whereas night-time respiratory losses ranged between 10 and 15 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 at the papyrus wetland and 5–10 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 at the cocoyam site. The integration of the flux data suggests that papyrus wetlands have the potential to act as a sink for significant amounts of carbon, in the region of 10 t C ha-1 yr-1. The cocoyam vegetation assimilated ~7 t C ha-1 yr-1 but when carbon exports from crop biomass removal were accounted for these wetlands represent a significant net loss of carbon of similar magnitude. The development of sustainable wetland management strategies are therefore required to promote the dual wetland function of crop production and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions especially under future climate change scenarios.

%B Global Change Biology %I Wiley-Blackwell %V 18 %P 1312-1321 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/i003266/1 %2 ne-i003266-1 %3 13 %4 Burundi; Congo, Dem. Rep; Congo, Rep.; Ethiopia; Kenya; Malawi; Mozambique; Rwanda; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000301533100009 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02633.x %M 13541013 %0 Book %D 2012 %T Animal waste water quality and human health: WHO emerging issues in water & infectious disease series %A Dufour, Al %E Bartram, Jamie %E Bos, Robert %E Gannon, Victor %X

Domestic animals contaminate recreational waters and drinking-water sources with excreta and pathogens; but this threat to public health is inadequately understood and is insufficiently addressed in regulations. More than 85% of the world’s faecal wastes is from domestic animals such as poultry, cattle, sheep and pigs. These animals harbor zoonotic pathogens that are transported in the environment by water, especially runoff. However little information exists on health effects associated with exposure to this potential hazard to human health; and water standards focused on control of human fecal contamination do reflect the contribution of non-human fecal contamination to risk. Does compliance with current monitoring practices using microbial indicators provide protection against animal and bird sources of fecal contamination? Prepared with contributions from a group of international experts, this book considers microbial contamination from domestic animal and bird sources and explores the health hazards associated with this microbial contamination and approaches to protecting public health? This book will be of interest to regulators with responsibility for recreational waters, drinking water quality and water reuse; policymakers working in water quality, public health and agriculture; decision makers responsible for livestock management; and scientists and practitioners concerned with many affected subjects.

%I World Health Organization %@ 9789241564519 %G eng %K http://www.searo.who.int/thailand/publications/2013/9789241564519/en/ %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Journal Article %J PLoS ONE %D 2012 %T Basin-scale control on the phytoplankton biomass in Lake Victoria, Africa %A Andrés Cózar %A Miguel Bruno %A Nadia Bergamino %A Barbara Ubeda %A Luca Bracchini %A Arduino M. Dattilo %A Steven A. Loiselle %X

The relative bio-optical variability within Lake Victoria was analyzed through the spatio-temporal decomposition of a 1997– 2004 dataset of remotely-sensed reflectance ratios in the visible spectral range. Results show a regular seasonal pattern with a phase shift (around 2 months) between the south and north parts of the lake. Interannual trends suggested a teleconnection between the lake dynamics and El-Nino phenomena. Both seasonal and interannual patterns were associated to conditions of light limitation for phytoplankton growth and basin-scale hydrodynamics on phytoplankton access to light. Phytoplankton blooms developed during the periods of lake surface warming and water column stability. The temporal shift apparent in the bio-optical seasonal cycles was related to the differential cooling of the lake surface by southeastern monsoon winds. North-south differences in the exposure to trade winds are supported by the orography of the Eastern Great Rift Valley. The result is that surface layer warming begins in the northern part of the lake while the formation of cool and dense water continues in the southern part. The resulting buoyancy field is sufficient to induce a lakewide convective circulation and the tilting of the isotherms along the north-south axis. Once surface warming spreads over the whole lake, the phytoplankton bloom dynamics are subjected to the internal seiche derived from the relaxation of thermocline tilting. In 1997–98, El-Nino phenomenon weakened the monsoon wind flow which led to an increase in water column stability and a higher phytoplankton optical signal throughout the lake. This suggests that phytoplankton response to expected climate scenarios will be opposite to that proposed for nutrient-limited great lakes. The present analysis of remotely-sensed bio-optical properties in combination with environmental data provides a novel basin-scale framework for research and management strategies in Lake Victoria.

%B PLoS ONE %V 7 %P 1-9 %8 01/2012 %G eng %N 1 %1 NE/I003266/1 %2 ne-i003266-1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0029962 %0 Journal Article %J PLoS One %D 2012 %T A battle lost? Report on two centuries of invasion and management of Lantana camara L. in Australia, India and South Africa %A Bhagwat, Shonil A. %A Breman, Elinor %A Thekaekara, Tarsh %A Thornton, Thomas F. %A Willis, Katherine J. %X

Recent discussion on invasive species has invigorated the debate on strategies to manage these species. Lantana camara L., a shrub native to the American tropics, has become one of the worst weeds in recorded history. In Australia, India and South Africa, Lantana has become very widespread occupying millions of hectares of land. Here, we examine historical records to reconstruct invasion and management of Lantana over two centuries and ask: Can we fight the spread of invasive species or do we need to develop strategies for their adaptive management? We carried out extensive research of historical records constituting over 75% of records on invasion and management of this species in the three countries. The records indicate that governments in Australia, India and South Africa have taken aggressive measures to eradicate Lantana over the last two centuries, but these efforts have been largely unsuccessful. We found that despite control measures, the invasion trajectory of Lantana has continued upwards and that post-war land-use change might have been a possible trigger for this spread. A large majority of studies on invasive species address timescales of less than one year; and even fewer address timescales of >10 years. An understanding of species invasions over long time-scales is of paramount importance. While archival records may give only a partial picture of the spread and management of invasive species, in the absence of any other long-term dataset on the ecology of Lantana, our study provides an important insight into its invasion, spread and management over two centuries and across three continents. While the established paradigm is to expend available resources on attempting to eradicate invasive species, our findings suggest that in the future, conservationists will need to develop strategies for their adaptive management rather than fighting a losing battle.

%B PLoS One %G eng %1 ne/i004149/1 %2 ne-i004149-1 %3 33 %4 Australia; India; South Africa %# 000303017700050 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pone.0032407 %M 1932-6203 %0 Journal Article %J Trends in Ecology & Evolution %D 2012 %T Biodiversity and ecosystem services: a multilayered relationship %A Mace, Georgina M. %A Norris, Ken %A Fitter, Alastair H. %X The relationship between biodiversity and the rapidly expanding research and policy field of ecosystem services is confused and is damaging efforts to create coherent policy. Using the widely accepted Convention on Biological Diversity definition of biodiversity and work for the UK National Ecosystem Assessment we show that biodiversity has key roles at all levels of the ecosystem service hierarchy: as a regulator of underpinning ecosystem processes, as a final ecosystem service and as a good that is subject to valuation, whether economic or otherwise. Ecosystem science and practice has not yet absorbed the lessons of this complex relationship, which suggests an urgent need to develop the interdisciplinary science of ecosystem management bringing together ecologists, conservation biologists, resource economists and others. %B Trends in Ecology & Evolution %I Elsevier (Cell Press) %V 27 %P 19-26 %G eng %N 1 %1 espa-res-001 %2 espa-res-001 %3 339 %4 Global %# 000299712900008 %6 Directorate Research %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.tree.2011.08.006 %M 01695347 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2012 %T Biodiversity and human health –hubris, humility and the unknown %A Stephens, Carolyn %X

In November 2011, botanists on a remote island off Papua New Guinea discovered a new species of orchid—uniquely and mysteriously night-flowering [1]. New to science, and with so much more to understand, this flower is threatened by deforestation [2]. Also in November 2011, a survey of 583 conservation scientists reported a unanimous (99.5%) view that 'it is likely a serious loss of biological diversity is underway at a global extent'and that, for scientists, 'protection of biological diversity for its cultural and spiritual values and because of its usefulness to humans were low priorities, which suggests that many scientists do not fully support the utilitarian concept of ecosystem services' [3]. In terms of management, some scientists now advocate controversial conservation strategies such as triage (prioritization of species that provide unique or necessary functions to ecosystems) [4, 5].

%B Environmental Research Letters %I Institute of Physics %G eng %1 ne/i003134/1 %2 ne-i003134-1 %3 4 %4 Argentina; Bolivia; Brazil; Peru %# 000302580600009 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/011008 %M 11008 %0 Book %D 2012 %T Biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation: Exploring the evidence for a link %A Roe, Dilys %E Elliot, Joanna %E Sandbrook, Chris %E Walpole, Matt %X

Biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation are both important societal goals demanding increasing international attention. While they may seem to be unrelated, the international policy frameworks that guide action to address them make an explicit assumption that conserving biodiversity will help to tackle global poverty. Part of the Conservation Science and Practice Series published with the Zoological Society of London, this book explores the validity of that assumption. The book addresses a number of critical questions: - Which aspects of biodiversity are of value to the poor? - Does the relationship between biodiversity and poverty differ according to particular ecological conditions? - How do different conservation interventions vary in their poverty impacts? - How do distributional and institutional issues affect the poverty impacts of interventions? - How do broader issues such as climate change and the global economic system affect the biodiversity - poverty relationship at different scales?

%I Wiley-Blackwell %@ 9780470674796 %G eng %1 eirg-2011-173 %2 eirg-2011-173 %4 Global %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1002/9781118428351 %0 Journal Article %J Nature %D 2012 %T Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity %A Cardinale, Bradley J. %A Duffy, J. Emmett %A Gonzalez, Andrew %A Hooper, David U. %A Perrings, Charles %A Venail, Patrick %A Narwani, Anita %A Mace, Georgina M. %A Tilman, David %A Wardle, David A. %A Kinzig, Ann P. %A Daily, Gretchen C. %A Loreau, Michel %A Grace, James B. %A Larigauderie, Anne %A Srivastava, Diane S. %A Naeem, Shahid %X The most unique feature of Earth is the existence of life, and the most extraordinary feature of life is its diversity. Approximately 9 million types of plants, animals, protists and fungi inhabit the Earth. So, too, do 7 billion people. Two decades ago, at the first Earth Summit, the vast majority of the world's nations declared that human actions were dismantling the Earth's ecosystems, eliminating genes, species and biological traits at an alarming rate. This observation led to the question of how such loss of biological diversity will alter the functioning of ecosystems and their ability to provide society with the goods and services needed to prosper. %B Nature %I Nature Publishing Group %V 486 %P 59-67 %G eng %N 7401 %1 espa-res-001 %2 espa-res-001 %3 1216 %4 Global %# 000304854000027 %6 Directorate Research %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1038/Nature11148 %M 0028-0836 %0 Journal Article %J Ecology and Society %D 2012 %T Can we be both resilient and well, and what choices do people have? Incorporating agency into the resilience debate from a fisheries perspective %A Coulthard, Sarah %X

In the midst of a global fisheries crisis, there has been great interest in the fostering of adaptation and resilience in fisheries, as a means to reduce vulnerability and improve the capacity of fishing society to adapt to change. However, enhanced resilience does not automatically result in improved well-being of people, and adaptation strategies are riddled with difficult choices, or trade-offs, that people must negotiate. This paper uses the context of fisheries to explore some apparent tensions between adapting to change on the one hand, and the pursuit of well-being on the other, and illustrates that trade-offs can operate at different levels of scale. It argues that policies that seek to support fisheries resilience need to be built on a better understanding of the wide range of consequences that adaptation has on fisher well-being, the agency people exert in negotiating their adaptation strategies, and how this feeds back into the resilience of fisheries as a social-ecological system. The paper draws from theories on agency and adaptive preferences to illustrate how agency might be better incorporated into the resilience debate.

%B Ecology and Society %I Resilience Alliance %V 17 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/g008337/1 %2 ne-g008337-1 %3 42 %4 India; Sri Lanka %# 000302713700005 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5751/es-04483-170104 %M 1708-3087 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Policy %D 2012 %T Certification and equity: Applying an “equity framework” to compare certification schemes across product sectors and scales %A McDermott, Constance L. %X

This paper applies a comprehensive equity framework to compare the priorities and tradeoffs of different environmental and social certification schemes. The schemes selected for comparison are the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification Schemes (PEFC), the Fairtrade Labelling Organization (FLO), and the Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance (CCBA). The framework considers how the parameters of equity are set in certification scheme governance, including who are the primary decision-makers and intended beneficiaries, and how this is reflected in the content of scheme standards and certification outcomes. Each of these parameters is assessed across the dimensions of procedural, contextual and distributive equity.

%B Environmental Science & Policy %I Elsevier %V 33 %P 428-437 %G eng %1 ne/i00341x/1 %2 ne-i00341x-1 %3 21 %4 Bolivia; Cambodia; Costa Rica; Thailand; Uganda %# 000327686500038 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.06.008 %M 14629011 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Policy %D 2012 %T Challenges and opportunities in linking carbon sequestration, livelihoods and ecosystem service provision in drylands %A Stringer, L. C. %A Dougill, A. J. %A Thomas, A. D. %A Spracklen, D. V. %A Chesterman, S. %A Ifejika Speranza, C. %A Rueff, H. %A Riddell, M. %A Williams, M. %A Beedy, T. %A Abson, D. J. %A Klintenberg, P. %A Syampungani, S. %A Powell, P. %A Palmer, A. R. %A Seely, M. K. %A Mkwambisi, D. D. %A Falcao, M. %A Sitoe, A. %A Ross, S. %A Kopolo, G. %X Changes in land use and management practices to store and sequester carbon are becoming integral to global efforts that both address climate change and alleviate poverty. Knowledge and evidence gaps nevertheless abound. This paper analyses the most pressing deficiencies in understanding carbon storage in both soils and above ground biomass and the related social and economic challenges associated with carbon sequestration projects. Focusing on the semi-arid and dry sub-humid systems of sub-Saharan Africa which are inhabited by many of the world's poor, we identify important interdisciplinary opportunities and challenges that need to be addressed, in order for the poor to benefit from carbon storage, through both climate finance streams and the collateral ecosystem service benefits delivered by carbon-friendly land management. We emphasise that multi-stakeholder working across scales from the local to the regional is necessary to ensure that scientific advances can inform policy and practice to deliver carbon, ecosystem service and poverty alleviation benefits. %B Environmental Science & Policy %I Elsevier %V 19-20 %P 121-135 %G eng %1 ne/i003320/1 %2 ne-i003320-1 %3 41 %4 Botswana; Malawi; Namibia; South Africa; Zambia %# 000304897500011 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.02.004 %M 1462-9011 %0 Journal Article %J Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions %D 2012 %T A critical assessment of the JULES land surface model hydrology for humid tropical environments %A Zulkafli, Z. %A Buytaert, W. %A Onof, C. %A Lavado, W. %A Guyot, J. L. %X

Global land surface models (LSMs) such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are originally developed to provide surface boundary conditions for climate models. They are increasingly used for hydrological simulation, for instance to simulate the impacts of land-use changes and other perturbations on the water cycle. This study investigates how well such models represent the major hydrological fluxes at the relevant spatial and temporal scales – an important question for reliable model applications in poorly understood, data-scarce environments. The JULES-LSM is implemented in a 360 000km2 humid tropical mountain basin of the Peruvian Andes–Amazon at 12 km grid resolution, forced with daily satellite and climate reanalysis data. The simulations are evaluated using conventional discharge-based evaluation methods, and by further comparing the magnitude and internal variability of the basin surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration, throughfall, and surface and subsurface runoff, of the model with those observed in similar environments elsewhere. We find reasonably positive model efficiencies and high correlations between the simulated and observed streamflows, but high root-mean-square errors affecting the performance in smaller, upper sub-basins. We attribute this to errors in the water balance and JULES-LSM’s inability to model baseflow. We also found a tendency to underrepresent the high evapotranspiration rates of the region. We conclude that strategies to improve the representation of tropical systems to be (1) addressing errors in the forcing (2) incorporating local wetland and regional floodplain in the subsurface representation.

%B Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions %I Copernicus Publications %V 9 %P 12523-12561 %G eng %N 11 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %3 11 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000316961300017 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5194/hess-17-1113-2013 %M 1812-2116 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Research Letters %D 2012 %T Cultivating C4 crops in a changing climate: sugarcane in Ghana %A Black, Emily %A Vidale, Pier Luigi %A Verhoef, Anne %A Cuadra, Santiago Vianna %A Osborne, Tom %A Van den Hoof, Catherine %X

Over the next few decades, it is expected that increasing fossil fuel prices will lead to a proliferation of energy crop cultivation initiatives. The environmental sustainability of these activities is thus a pressing issue—particularly when they take place in vulnerable regions, such as West Africa. In more general terms, the effect of increased CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures on biomass production and evapotranspiration affects the evolution of the global hydrological and carbon cycles. Investigating these processes for a C4 crop, such as sugarcane, thus provides an opportunity both to extend our understanding of the impact of climate change, and to assess our capacity to model the underpinning processes. This paper applies a process-based crop model to sugarcane in Ghana (where cultivation is planned), and the São Paulo region of Brazil (which has a well-established sugarcane industry). We show that, in the Daka River region of Ghana, provided there is sufficient irrigation, it is possible to generate approximately 75% of the yield achieved in the São Paulo region. In the final part of the study, the production of sugarcane under an idealized temperature increase climate change scenario is explored. It is shown that doubling CO2 mitigates the degree of water stress associated with a 4°C increase in temperature.

%B Environmental Research Letters %V 7 %P 044027 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/i00307x/1 %2 ne-i00307x-1 %3 5 %4 Brazil; Ghana %# 000312696400031 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044027 %M 1748-9326 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal for Vitamin and Nutrition Research %D 2012 %T Dietary requirements for magnesium, but not calcium, are likely to be met in Malawi based on national food supply data %A Broadley, Martin R. %A Chilimba, Allan D. C. %A Joy, Edward J. M. %A Young, Scott D. %A Black, Colin R. %A Ander, E. Louise %A Watts, Michael J. %A Hurst, Rachel %A Fairweather-Tait, Susan J. %A White, Philip J. %A Gibson, Rosalind S. %X

Mineral malnutrition is widespread in sub-Saharan Africa but its extent is difficult to quantify. Using Malawi as a case study, the aim of this work was to investigate the adequacy of calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) nutrition by combining national food supply and food composition data with a new spatial survey of maize grain. Non-maize dietary sources of Ca and Mg were estimated using existing food supply and composition data. Calcium and Mg concentrations in maize grain were determined at 88 field sites, representing >75 % of Malawi's land area in terms of soil classification. Median maize grain concentrations from the survey were 34 and 845 mg kg(-1), representing a per capita supply of 12 and 299 mg d(-1) of Ca and Mg, respectively. Combining these data with food supply and composition data reveals that average Ca nutrition is likely to be inadequate for many individuals, whereas average Mg nutrition appears adequate. Optimal supply of Ca per capita depends critically on balanced food availability and choice. Since maize grain sourced from highly calcareous soils is still unlikely to deliver >5 % of estimated average requirements, agronomic solutions to rectify Ca malnutrition via maize are limited, in comparison with strategies for dietary diversification.

%B International Journal for Vitamin and Nutrition Research %V 82 %P 192-199 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/i003347/1 %2 ne-i003347-1 %3 7 %4 Malawi %# 000314481100009 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1024/0300-9831/a000111 %M 0300-9831 %0 Working Publication %D 2012 %T Environmental and socio-economic consequences of forest carbon payments in Bolivia: Results of the OSIRIS-Bolivia model %A Andersen, Lykke %A Busch, Jonah %A Curran, Elizabeth %A Mayorga, Joaquin %A Bellier, Mélissa %A Ledezma, Juan Carlos %X

Bolivia has significant potential to abate climate change by reducing deforestation. This opportunity presents economic and environmental tradeoffs. While these tradeoffs have been hotly debated, they have as yet been the subject of little quantitative analysis. We introduce the OSIRIS-Bolivia model to provide a quantitative basis for decision-making. OSIRIS-Bolivia is an Excel-based tool for analyzing the potential effects of incentive payments to reduce emissions from deforestation (REDD) in Bolivia. It is based on a spatial econometric model of deforestation in Bolivia during the period 2001-2005, and uses information on forest cover, deforestation rates, geographical conditions, and drivers of deforestation, including agricultural opportunity costs, for more than 120,000 pixels covering the whole country. OSIRIS-Bolivia is based on a partial equilibrium model in which reductions in deforestation in one region reduce the supply of agricultural products to the domestic market, which in turn causes an increase in the price of agricultural products, making conversion of land to agriculture more attractive and thus stimulating an increase in deforestation in other regions (leakage). The model can help answer questions such as: Where in Bolivia are carbon incentive payments most likely to result in reduced deforestation? Who are most likely to benefit from REDD? How much money will it take to reduce deforestation by a given amount? To what extent might transaction costs or preferences for agricultural income undermine the goals of the REDD program?

%I Institute for Advanced Development Studies %C Institute for Advanced Development Studies %G eng %K http://www.inesad.edu.bo/pdf/wp2012/wp02_2012.pdf %1 ne/i003185/1 %2 ne-i003185-1 %4 Bolivia %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Policy %D 2012 %T Examining equity: A multidimensional framework for assessing equity in payments for ecosystem services %A McDermott, Melanie %A Mahanty, Sango %A Schreckenberg, Kate %X

Concern over social equity dominates current debates about payments for ecosystem services and reduced deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Yet, despite the apprehension that these initiatives may undermine equity, the term is generally left undefined. This paper presents a systematic framework for the analysis of equity that can be used to examine how local equity is affected as the global value of ecosystem services changes. Our framework identifies three dimensions that form the content (the what) of equity. The first, distributive equity, addresses the distribution of benefits and costs. The second, procedural equity, refers to decision-making. These are linked by the third dimension, contextual equity, which incorporates the pre-existing conditions that limit or facilitate people's access to decision-making procedures, resources and, thereby, benefits. The framework then asks how these dimensions are shaped by the scale and target group of concern (who), the framing of goals with respect to equity (why), and, crucially, how the decisions about the content, target and aims of equity are taken. By spurring debate around the fundamental ethical values at stake, this framework can guide analysts, policymakers and planners towards more open and inclusive processes for defining equity, along with affirmative efforts to engage marginalised people.

%B Environmental Science & Policy %I Elsevier %V 33 %P 416-427 %G eng %1 ne/i00341x/1 %2 ne-i00341x-1 %3 65 %4 Bolivia; Cambodia; Costa Rica; Thailand; Uganda %# 000327686500037 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.10.006 %M 14629011 %0 Journal Article %J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %D 2012 %T Extending the timescale and range of ecosystem services through paleoenvironmental analyses: the example of the lower Yangtze basin %A Dearing, John A. %A Yang, Xiangdong %A Dong, Xuhui %A Zhang, Enlou %A Chen, Xu %A Langdon, Peter G. %A Zhang, Ke %A Zhang, Weiguo %A Dawson, Terence P. %X

Ecosystem services have become central to discussions about the sustainable management of natural resources. But in many regions worldwide there are critical knowledge gaps, especially with regards the dynamics of services that support and regulate ecosystems. Here we review the role of paleoenvironmental sequences to provide multi-decadal information for ecosystem services, exemplified by a case study from the lower Yangtze basin. The Chinese study shows rapid losses of regulating services especially since the 1980s mirroring the rise in population and economic growth. The findings imply that land management practices are critically unsustainable.

%B Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences %I National Academy of Sciences %V 109 %P E1111-E1120 %G eng %N 18 %1 ne/i002960/1 %2 ne-i002960-1 %3 45 %4 China %# 000303602100012 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1073/pnas.1118263109 %M 0027-8424 %0 Journal Article %J Nature %D 2012 %T Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state %A Wang, Rong %A Dearing, John A. %A Langdon, Peter G. %A Zhang, Enlou %A Yang, Xiangdong %A Dakos, Vasilis %A Scheffer, Marten %X

There is a recognized need to anticipate tipping points, or critical transitions, in social-ecological systems(1,2). Studies of mathematical(3-5) and experimental(6-9) systems have shown that systems may 'wobble' before a critical transition. Such early warning signals(10) may be due to the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which causes a system to recover slowly from small impacts, or to a flickering phenomenon, which causes a system to switch back and forth between alternative states in response to relatively large impacts. Such signals for transitions in social-ecological systems have rarely been observed(11), not the least because high-resolution time series are normally required. Here we combine empirical data from a lake-catchment system with a mathematical model and show that flickering can be detected from sparse data. We show how rising variance coupled to decreasing autocorrelation and skewness started 10-30 years before the transition to eutrophic lake conditions in both the empirical records and the model output, a finding that is consistent with flickering rather than critical slowing down(4,12). Our results suggest that if environmental regimes are sufficiently affected by large external impacts that flickering is induced, then early warning signals of transitions in modern social-ecological systems may be stronger, and hence easier to identify, than previously thought.

%B Nature %V 492 %P 419-422 %G eng %N 7429 %1 ne/i002960/1 %2 ne-i002960-1 %3 121 %4 China %# 000312488200054 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1038/nature11655 %M 0028-0836 %0 Journal Article %J Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences %D 2012 %T A framework for the study of zoonotic disease emergence and its drivers: spillover of bat pathogens as a case study %A Wood, James L N %X

Many serious emerging zoonotic infections have recently arisen from bats, including Ebola, Marburg, SARS-coronavirus, Hendra, Nipah, and a number of rabies and rabies-related viruses, consistent with the overall observation that wildlife are an important source of emerging zoonoses for the human population. Mechanisms underlying the recognized association between ecosystem health and human health remain poorly understood and responding appropriately to the ecological, social and economic conditions that facilitate disease emergence and transmission represents a substantial societal challenge. In the context of disease emergence from wildlife, wildlife and habitat should be conserved, which in turn will preserve vital ecosystem structure and function, which has broader implications for human wellbeing and environmental sustainability, while simultaneously minimizing the spillover of pathogens from wild animals into human beings. In this review, we propose a novel framework for the holistic and interdisciplinary investigation of zoonotic disease emergence and its drivers, using the spillover of bat pathogens as a case study. This study has been developed to gain a detailed interdisciplinary understanding, and it combines cutting-edge perspectives from both natural and social sciences, linked to policy impacts on public health, land use and conservation.

%B Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences %I Royal Society, The %V 367 %P 2881-92 %G eng %N 1604 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 67 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000308811400009 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1098/rstb.2012.0228 %M 1471-2970 %0 Journal Article %J The Solutions Journal %D 2012 %T How valuing nature can transform agriculture %A Farley, Joshua %A Schmitt F., Abdon %A Alvez, Juan %A de Freitas Jr, Norton Ribeiro %X

Society must increase food production and restore vital ecosystem services or suffer unacceptable consequences. Unfortunately, conventional agriculture may be the single greatest threat to ecosystem function. At the same time, reducing ecologically harmful agricultural inputs or restoring farmlands to native ecosystems threatens food production. We fell into this predicament because we designed agricultural and economic systems that failed to account for ecosystem services, and the path forward requires redesigning both systems. Agroecology—which applies ecological principles to design sustainable farming methods that can increase food production, wean us away from non-renewable and harmful agricultural inputs, and restore ecosystem services—promises to be an appropriate redesign of agricultural systems. We focus on the example of management-intensive grazing (MIG), which mimics natural grassland-grazer dynamics. Compared to conventional systems, MIG increases pasture growth and cattle production, reduces the use of fertilizers and pesticides, and enhances biodiversity, water quality, nutrient capture, and carbon sequestration. Redesigning economic institutions to reward the provision of ecosystem services and provide the public goods required for the global-scale development and dissemination of agroecology practices still presents a serious challenge. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) are a promising mechanism through which those who benefit from ecosystem services can compensate those who provide them, for mutual gain. Numerous schemes already exist that pay landowners for land uses that sequester carbon, regulate and purify water, and enhance biodiversity, but their effectiveness is debated. We propose a form of PES in which the potential public beneficiaries of ecosystem services at the local, national, and global scales fund the research and development, extension work (i.e., farmer education, usually supported by government agencies), and affordable credit required to scale agroecology up to the level required to provide for a growing global population.

%B The Solutions Journal %I Open access journal: http://thesolutionsjournal. %V 6 %P 64-73 %G eng %K https://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/article/how-valuing-nature-can-transform-agriculture/ %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %M 111 %0 Book Section %D 2012 %T Lassa fever %A Bausch, D.G %A Moses, L.M %A Goba, A %A Grant, D.S %A Khan, H %X

Viral hemorrhagic fevers have captured the imagination of the public and made their way into popular books and movies by virtue of their extreme virulence and mysterious origins. Since 2001, concerns have grown about the potential use of many hemorrhagic fever viruses as biological weapons. This has led to a resurgence in research to develop improved diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics - both for biodefense purposes and to treat naturally exposed persons.

%I Taylor & Francis %@ 978-1439884294 %G eng %K https://www.amazon.co.uk/Viral-Hemorrhagic-Fevers-Sunit-Singh/dp/1439884293/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1465467407&sr=1-1&keywords=Viral+Hemorrhagic+Fevers %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Book %D 2012 %T Linking biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation: What, why and where? %A Roe, Dilys %E Walpole, Matt %E Elliott, Joanne %E Sandbrook, Chris %X

Recognising the diversity of opinion as to the nature and scale of biodiversity-poverty links and the most appropriate mechanisms that can help to maximise them, this book is intended to explore the current state of knowledge on different aspects of this relationship. The book is based on a symposium held in April 2010 at the Zoological Society of London that brought together leading experts to discuss the nature of the links between biodiversity and poverty in different ecological contexts and for different groups of poor people.

%I John Wiley & Sons, Ltd %C Chichester %@ 9780470674796 %G eng %1 eirg-2011-173 %2 eirg-2011-173 %4 Global %6 EIRG 2011 %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1002/9781118428351.ch1 %0 Journal Article %J Tropical Animal Health and Production %D 2012 %T The multiple burdens of zoonotic disease and an ecohealth approach to their assessment %A Grace, Delia %A Gilbert, Jeff %A Randolph, Thomas %A Kang’ethe, Erastus %X

Zoonoses occur at the interface of human and animal disease and partly because their impact and management fall across two sectors they are often neglected. The Global Burden of Disease captures the impact of zoonoses on human health in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Based on this, we estimate that in low income countries, zoonoses and diseases which recently emerged from animals make up 26 % of the DALYs lost to infectious disease and 10 % of the total DALYs lost. In contrast, in high income countries, zoonoses and diseases recently which emerged from animals represent less than 1 % of DALYs lost to infectious disease and only 0.02 % of the total disease burden. We present a framework that captures the costs of zoonoses and emerging disease to human, animal and ecosystem health in terms of cost of treatment, cost of prevention, health burden and intangible and opportunity costs. We also discuss how ecohealth concepts of transdisciplinarity, participation and equity can help in assessing the importance of zoonoses in developing countries and illustrate these with an example of assessing milk-borne disease.

%B Tropical Animal Health and Production %I Springer Verlag (Germany) %V 44 %P 67-73 %G eng %N S1 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 7 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000308552400011 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s11250-012-0209-y %M 0049-4747 %0 Journal Article %J Economic and Political Weekly %D 2012 %T Negotiating trade-offs: choices about ecosystem services for poverty alleviation %A Vira, Bhaskar %A Adams, Bill %A Agarwal, Chetan %A Badiger, Shrinivas %A Hope, R. A. %A Krishnaswamy, Jagdish %A Kumar, Chetan %X

This paper reviews the ways in which the ecosystem services concept has evolved in an Indian context, and the political economy issues that arise in making choices about ecosystem services for poverty alleviation.

%B Economic and Political Weekly %I Economic & Political Weekly %C Mumbai, India %V 47 %P 67-75 %G eng %K https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236960000_Negotiating_Trade-offs_Choices_about_Ecosystem_Services_for_Poverty_Alleviation#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M199 %N 9 %1 ne/i003924/1 %2 ne-i003924-1 %4 India %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %M 0012-9976 %0 Journal Article %J Geoscientific Model Development Discussions %D 2012 %T The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use %A Souty, F. %A Brunelle, T. %A Dumas, P. %A Dorin, B. %A Ciais, P. %A Crassous, R. %A Müller, C. %A Bondeau, A. %X

Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. NOTE Patrice Dumas (CIRED) has been funded under a sub-contract within ICWALPA to develop this model and apply it to our study. He was a key contributor to this paper.

%B Geoscientific Model Development Discussions %V 5 %P 571-638 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/i00307x/1 %2 ne-i00307x-1 %4 Brazil; Ghana %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.5194/gmdd-5-571-2012 %M 1991-962X %0 Journal Article %J International Review of Sociology %D 2012 %T Ownership claims, valuation practices, and the unpacking of energy-landscape conflicts %A van der Horst, Dan %A Vermeylen, Saskia %X

There is now a substantive body of academic literature which focuses on protests against local infrastructural developments. This literature is often characterised by the key words ‘NIMBY’ or (facility-) ‘siting controversies’. The rapid development of renewable energy technologies - which are largely sited in rural areas - has created a new version of this controversy; energy-landscape conflicts. In many countries, large infrastructural developments are regulated through spatial planning legislation, often causing various tensions between new technologies, an evolving policy agenda, and a legislative framework which was largely conceived in a different era and which is slow to adapt. Alternatively, and in line with neo-liberal thinking, the logic of development can be subjected to cost-benefit analysis, whereby the value of the wind farm can be compared with the value of the ‘unspoiled’ landscape. This paper takes a more holistic approach to energy-landscape conflicts, by examining claims of ownership and notions and measures of value inherent in different claims and value systems which (seek to) influence decision-making. We examine both the logic of monetary valuation and the implicit value statements in various policy intervention options to point at the need for a more heterogeneous and multidisciplinary approach to policy evaluation. We then look at notions of ownership, rights and duties in relation to landscape and to our energy future, and we highlight the potential for using an analytical property rights framework which cuts across various levels of claims and value statements, from the national and ideological to the personal and practice-based.

%B International Review of Sociology %V 22 %P 429-445 %G eng %1 ne/i003819/1 %2 ne-i003819-1 %4 Zambia %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/03906701.2012.730822 %0 Book %D 2012 %T Proceedings of the 2012 workshop on complex systems modelling and simulation %A Stepney, Susan %A Andrews, Paul %A Read, Mark %X

The study of complex systems is growing rapidly and modelling and simulation tools are an important part of the process. This volume brings together work from a multidisciplinary group of scientists, who are studying a variety of techniques and applications for modelling and simulating complex systems. Building on the success of previous CoSMoS workshops, these proceedings explore a range of modelling and simulation techniques together with a selection of complex systems case-studies.

%I Luniver Press 2012 %@ 9781905986378 %G eng %K http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2424145 %1 ne/i002448/1 %2 ne-i002448-1 %4 Bangladesh; Kenya %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Environmental Planning and Management %D 2012 %T Reframing water governance: a multi-perspective study of an over-engineered catchment in China %A Wei, Yongping %A Ison, Ray %A Colvin, John %A Collins, Kevin %X

Climate change, over abstraction, pollution and questionable engineering-based paradigms are contributing to a state of crisis in water governance. This paper reports on preliminary research in Lake Baiyangdian catchment, China, which has the potential to realise more systemic and adaptive forms of water governance through development and use of a method that reframes water catchment management in the form of social learning. A cross-disciplinary research group worked together with multiple-department managers and stakeholder representatives within a purposefully designed ‘learning system’ to create an insipient social learning platform. The results demonstrate the potential to reframe water catchment management in Lake Baiyangdian so as to better address the questions: who should manage the water catchment and what in the catchment should be the focus of managing?

%B Journal of Environmental Planning and Management %I Taylor & Francis (Routledge) %V 55 %P 297-318 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/g008582/1 %2 ne-g008582-1 %3 3 %4 China; South Africa %# 000303571300002 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/09640568.2011.597589 %M 0964-0568 %0 Journal Article %J Plant and Soil %D 2012 %T Risk of dietary magnesium deficiency is low in most African countries based on food supply data %A Joy, Edward J. M. %A Young, Scott D. %A Black, Colin R. %A Ander, E. Louise %A Watts, Michael J. %A Broadley, Martin R. %X

Background:

Dietary mineral deficiencies are widespread in Africa. Our previous studies in Malawi revealed population-level shortfalls in dietary calcium and selenium supply but adequate dietary magnesium (Mg) supply. Here we examine dietary Mg supply throughout Africa.

Methods:

Food supply data from 1961 to 2007 were compiled using Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Balance Sheets (FBSs). Magnesium supply was estimated for each country using regional food Mg composition tables.

Results:

Mean Mg supply in 2007 was 649 mg capita-1 d-1, ranging from 188 mg d-1 in Eritrea to 1,828 mg d-1 in Burkina Faso. Magnesium supply was greater in West Africa than in other regions, was dominated by sorghum, maize and wheat and was correlated with calorie supply. The World Health Organization (WHO) Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) for Mg (217 mg capita-1 d-1 for adult males) was exceeded in most countries. Using the EAR cut-point method, the risk of dietary Mg deficiency in Africa is <4 % and unlikely to be a major problem, assuming access to sufficient food and that phytic acid does not compromise Mg absorption.

Conclusions:

Estimating Mg supply is highly sensitive to concentration data available for the primary staple crops. Given that soil factors profoundly affect crop Mg concentration, there is a need to increase the spatial resolution of food composition tables for the staple crops.

%B Plant and Soil %I Springer Verlag (Germany) %G eng %1 ne/i003347/1 %2 ne-i003347-1 %3 10 %4 Malawi %# 000321641700010 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s11104-012-1388-z %M 0032-079X %0 Journal Article %J Development %D 2012 %T Sustainable development through policy integration in Latin America: a comparative approach %A Rival, Laura %X

'Greening' the economy requires the creation of new markets in ecological goods and services, and there exist today many different payment mechanisms that differ significantly in terms of their distributional outcomes. Laura Rival compares three case studies: a forest conservation scheme involving payments for ecosystem services (PES) in the state of Amazonas, Brazil; Ecuador’s government-led PES aimed at avoiding carbon dioxide emissions by keeping oil in the ground; and a ten-year grassroots project in the state of Minas Geiras, Brazil, which combats social exclusion with the dissemination of agroecological practices among poor small-scale farmers to provide viable economic alternatives to out-migration. The three programmes result from the efforts of social actors who have sought to create innovative sustainability-enhancing institutions in order to achieve environmental and social policy integration.

%B Development %I Palgrave Macmillan %V 55 %P 63-70 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1057/dev.2011.111 %M 1011-6370 %0 Journal Article %J Sustainability Science %D 2012 %T Transdisciplinary research in sustainability science: practice, principles, and challenges %A Lang, DanielJ %A Wiek, Arnim %A Bergmann, Matthias %A Stauffacher, Michael %A Martens, Pim %A Moll, Peter %A Swilling, Mark %A Thomas, ChristopherJ %X

There is emerging agreement that sustainability challenges require new ways of knowledge production and decision-making. One key aspect of sustainability science, therefore, is the involvement of actors from outside academia into the research process in order to integrate the best available knowledge, reconcile values and preferences, as well as create ownership for problems and solution options. Transdisciplinary, community-based, interactive, or participatory research approaches are often suggested as appropriate means to meet both the requirements posed by real-world problems as well as the goals of sustainability science as a transformational scientific field. Dispersed literature on these approaches and a variety of empirical projects applying them make it difficult for interested researchers and practitioners to review and become familiar with key components and design principles of how to do transdisciplinary sustainability research. Starting from a conceptual model of an ideal-typical transdisciplinary research process, this article synthesizes and structures such a set of principles from various strands of the literature and empirical experiences. We then elaborate on them, looking at challenges and some coping strategies as experienced in transdisciplinary sustainability projects in Europe, North America, South America, Africa, and Asia. The article concludes with future research needed in order to further enhance the practice of transdisciplinary sustainability research.

%B Sustainability Science %V 7 %P 25-43 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/i004351/1 %2 ne-i004351-1 %3 287 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000308363900003 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s11625-011-0149-x %M 1862-4065 %0 Journal Article %J Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %D 2012 %T Trypanosome diversity in wildlife species from the Serengeti and Luangwa Valley ecosystems %A Auty, Harriet %A Anderson, Neil E. %A Picozzi, Kim %A Lembo, Tiziana %A Mubanga, Joseph %A Hoare, Richard %A Fyumagwa, Robert D. %A Mable, Barbara %A Hamill, Louise %A Cleaveland, Sarah %A Welburn, Susan C. %X

Background:

The importance of wildlife as reservoirs of African trypanosomes pathogenic to man and livestock is well recognised. While new species of trypanosomes and their variants have been identified in tsetse populations, our knowledge of trypanosome species that are circulating in wildlife populations and their genetic diversity is limited.

%B Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases %V 6 %G eng %N 10 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %3 23 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %# 000310527200007 %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001828 %M 1935-2735 %0 Book %D 2012 %T Valuation of regulating services of ecosystems: Methodology and applications %A Kumar, Pushpam %E Wood, Michael %X

Policy and management decisions are often made on financial grounds. However, the economic value of the benefits that people derive from ecosystems, that is, ecosystem services, may not be fully recognised and hence ecosystem considerations may not be incorporated adequately into decision-making processes. This is particularly true for regulating services, the benefits obtained from the regulation of ecosystem processes, the valuation of which requires an interdisciplinary approach. In essence, valuation is a problem solving strategy and a problem is a problem, it does not respect the boundary of any particular discipline. The valuation of regulating services is an evolving field of ecological economics. In this book, Dr. Pushpam Kumar and Dr. Michael D. Wood have invited some of the foremost international experts in the field of ecosystem services valuation to contribute chapters on the valuation of regulating services and highlight some of the main obstacles to the implementation and acceptance of these methodologies in the context of decision-making.The contributors explore the theoretical underpinning of valuation of ecosystem services and demonstrate ways in which these theories can be applied to case-specific problems in order to inform decision-making processes. This collection clarifies some of the doubt and uncertainty regarding the valuation of regulating services. Innovative methodologies in this field have started to emerge and in coming years there may be much further discussion on this topic as methodologies and understanding continue to evolve. This is a highly active area of interdisciplinary research with far reaching social and environmental implications, and this book should be of interest to those who are new to the field, as well as established experts, in moving both theory and practice forward.

%I Routledge %C London %@ 9780415539821 %G eng %K http://www.tandfebooks.com/isbn/9780203847602# %1 ne/g008396/1 %2 ne-g008396-1 %4 India %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Hydrological Processes %D 2012 %T On virtual observatories and modelled realities (or why discharge must be treated as a virtual variable) %A Beven, Keith %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Smith, Leonard A %X

Out there in the cloud, there is more computing power, and there are more databases, more images, more models and more model output than have ever existed before. There also are a variety of projects in different countries to provide ways of making all that information more readily available at different scales and to different types of users, such as the Natural Environment Research Council-funded pilot Virtual Observatory project in the UK, the Earth Cube initiative of the US National Science Foundation, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems. There also are calls for hyper-resolution earth system science models at the global scale, analogous to virtual observatories, as a way ahead in predicting global change (Wood et al., 2011).

%B Hydrological Processes %I Wiley-Blackwell %V 26 %P 1905-1908 %G eng %N 12 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %3 21 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000304909700014 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1002/hyp.9261 %M 08856087 %0 Journal Article %J Water Resources Research %D 2012 %T Water for cities: The impact of climate change and demographic growth in the tropical Andes %A Buytaert, W. %A De Bièvre, B. %X

Globally, water resources for cities are under increasing stress. Two main stressors are climate change and population growth, but evaluating their relative impact is difficult, especially because of the complex topology of water supply. This is especially true in the tropical Andes, which is a region with strong climatic gradients and topographical limits to water resources. This paper presents an evaluation of both stressors on water resources in a geospatial framework to identify gradients in water availability that may lead to conflicts over water use. We focus on four major cities in, or receiving water from, the tropical Andes. A multimodel data set of 19 climate models is used as input for a regional water balance model. Per capita water availability is evaluated along topographic gradients for the present and for future scenarios of population growth and climate change. In all cases, the median projection of climate change suggests a relatively limited impact on water availability, but uncertainties are large. Despite these uncertainties, we find that the expected demographic changes are very likely to outpace the impact of climate change on water availability and should therefore be the priority for local policy making. However, distinctive geospatial patterns characterize the supply systems of the studied cities, highlighting the need to analyze the topology of water supply within an ecosystem services context. Our approach is flexible enough to be extended to other regions, stressors and water resources topologies.

%B Water Resources Research %I American Geophysical Union (AGU) %V 48 %P n/a-n/a %G eng %N 8 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %3 31 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000307183300001 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1029/2011WR011755 %M 00431397 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Science & Technology %D 2012 %T Web-based environmental simulation: bridging the gap between scientific modeling and decision-making %A Buytaert, Wouter %A Baez, Selene %A Bustamante, Macarena %A Dewulf, Art %X

Data availability in environmental sciences is growing rapidly. Conventional monitoring systems are collecting data at increasing spatial and temporal resolutions; satellites provide a constant stream of global observations, and citizen scientist generate local data with electronic gadgets and cheap devices. There is a need to process this stream of heterogeneous data into useful information, both for science and for decision-making. Advances in networking and computer technologies increasingly enable accessing, combining, processing, and visualizing these data. This Feature reflects upon the role of environmental models in this process. We consider models as the primary tool for data processing, pattern identification, and scenario analysis. As such, they are an essential element of science-based decision-making. The new technologies analyzed here have the potential to turn the typical top-down flow of information from scientists to users into a much more direct, interactive approach. This may accelerate the dissemination of environmental information to a larger community of users. It may also facilitate harvesting feedback, and evaluating simulations and predictions from different perspectives. However, the evolution poses challenges, not only to model development but also to the communication of model results and their assumptions, shortcomings, and errors.

%B Environmental Science & Technology %I American Chemical Society %V 46 %P 1971-1976 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/i004017/1 %2 ne-i004017-1 %3 12 %4 Ecuador; Peru %# 000300465900003 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1021/es2031278 %M 0013-936X %0 Book Section %D 2012 %T Zoonotic Waterborne Pathogen Loads In Livestock %A Gannon, Victor %A Li, Xunde %A Grace, Delia %A Atwill, Edward R. %X This chapter provides an overview on the prevalence and environmental load of waterborne zoonotic pathogens of public health importance shed in the excreta of livestock. Chapter 2 presents the five zoonotic pathogens that will be reviewed in this book: Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia duodenalis, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Campylobacter. These protozoa and bacteria are important disease-causing agents and satisfy the three criteria agreed to be classified as priority one waterborne zoonotic pathogens associated with livestock populations: capacity to induce clinical illness in susceptible humans, capability to be transmitted to humans through water, and prevalence in a biological reservoir host including one or more livestock species. A biological reservoir is defined as a host (in the context of this book: a livestock species) that allows thepathogen to amplify or reproduce and not merely pass through. Information on the prevalence, intensity and environmental load of these five pathogens is presented along with methodological concerns on how we draw inferences from these measures of occurrence and the human health risk they represent. Important aspects of the ecology and epidemiology of these five pathogens in livestock populations are also discussed in as much as they may be useful in the development of intervention strategies to limit their prevalence in livestock and to reduce the risks of waterborne transmission to humans. %I World Health Organization %@ 9789241564519 %G eng %K http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/resources/ch3.pdf?ua=1 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Book Section %D 2012 %T Zoonotic waterborne pathogen loads in livestock and their excreta - interventions %A Dufour, A %A Bartram, J %A Bos, R %A Gannon, V %X

In the present Chapter, methods used to reduce these zoonotic pathogens in animal populations and their waste products are presented. However, it must be borne in mind that farm-level interventions are rarely primarily aimed at reducing risks associated with waterborne disease in humans; most commonly the objective is to reduce foodborne zoonotic illness (caused by the same pathogens) or to reduce production losses in domestic animals. In the case of so-called “dual burden pathogens”, that is micro-organisms with major deleterious impacts on both human and animal populations, the objectives are to both improve good safety and reduce production losses. A subsequent Chapter discusses some of the implications when effective control requires coordination of multiple actors and where costs are borne by one actor but benefits accrue to multiple actors, which may or may not include the actor investing in control.

%I IWA Publishing %@ 9.7892415645e+012 %G eng %K https://www.amazon.co.uk/Animal-Quality-Emerging-Infectious-Disease/dp/178040123X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1465467089&sr=1-1&keywords=9781780401232 %1 ne/j001570/1 %2 ne-j001570-1 %4 Ghana; Kenya; Sierra Leone; Zambia; Zimbabwe %6 ESPA-2011 Grants %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Carbon Management %D 2011 %T Amazon deforestation in Brazil: effects, drivers and challenges %A Ometto, Jean Pierre %A Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra %A Martinelli, Luiz Antonio %X

The concept of global ecosystem services has become a powerful paradigm for understanding the link between ecosystem processes and related human activities, which is expressed by the economic and ecological quantification of the services in regards to sustainable development. The role of tropical forests in the global climate system and the uncertainty of the exact magnitude of this complex interaction has become a major concern to the scientific community. In this paper we review and synthesize the global effects of Amazon deforestation in Brazil, as well as drivers and challenges related to this process. To this end, we provide data on carbon emissions from combined annual maps of clear cutting of primary forests and spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types and secondary vegetation growth, as well as the temporal dynamic related to the deforestation process and its interregional heterogeneity, the social and institutional drivers. In 2009, during the Conference of Parties, of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (Copenhagen, Denmark), Brazil announced a voluntary commitment to reduce the national GHG emissions by 2020 and, to this end, such commitment requires reducing Amazon rainforest deforestation by 80% over a decade. To achieve this target, a set of consolidated remote sensing techniques have served to monitor and calculate the extent of deforestation, which became indispensable auditing tools for conservation, forest restoration and implementing climate change mitigation schemes.

%B Carbon Management %I Future Science %V 2 %P 575-585 %G eng %N 5 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 10 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000208650500016 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.4155/cmt.11.48 %M 1758-3004 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Conservation %D 2011 %T Applying the ecosystem services concept to poverty alleviation: the need to disaggregate human well-being %A Daw, Tim %A Brown, Katrina %A Rosendo, Sergio %A Pomeroy, Robert %X

The concept of ecosystem services (ES), the benefits humans derive from ecosystems, is increasingly applied to environmental conservation, human wellbeing and poverty alleviation, and to inform the development of interventions. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) implicitly recognize the unequal distribution of the costs and benefits of maintaining ES, through monetary compensation from 'winners' to 'losers'. Some research into PES has examined how such schemes affect poverty, while other literature addresses trade-offs between different ES. However, much evolving ES literature adopts an aggregated perspective of humans and their well-being, which can disregard critical issues for poverty alleviation. This paper identifies four issues with examples from coastal ES in developing countries. First, different groups derive well-being benefits from different ES, creating winners and losers as ES, change. Second, dynamic mechanisms of access determine who can benefit. Third, individuals' contexts and needs determine how ES contribute to well-being. Fourth, aggregated analyses may neglect crucial poverty alleviation mechanisms such as cash-based livelihoods. To inform the development of ES interventions that contribute to poverty alleviation, disaggregated analysis is needed that focuses on who derives which benefits from ecosystems, and how such benefits contribute to the well-being of the poor. These issues present challenges in data availability and selection of how and at which scales to disaggregate. Disaggregation can be applied spatially, but should also include social groupings, such as gender, age and ethnicity, and is most important where inequality is greatest. Existing tools, such as stakeholder analysis and equity weights, can improve the relevance of ES research to poverty alleviation.

%B Environmental Conservation %I Cambridge University Press (CUP) %V 38 %P 370-379 %G eng %N 04 %1 ne/i00324x/1 %2 ne-i00324x-1 %3 130 %4 Kenya %# 000297926400002 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1017/s0376892911000506 %M 0376-8929 %0 Book %D 2011 %T Bundles of energy: The case for renewable biomass energy %A Macqueen, Duncan %A Korhaliller, Sibel %X

Biomass energy currently makes up 10 per cent of the world's primary energy supply mix, but the International Energy Agency predicts that this will rise to 30 per cent by 2050. Since non-OECD countries are disproportionately dependent on biomass energy (meeting 26 per cent of their energy needs) they could capitalise on this trend. By acting now to legalise sustainable biomass value chains, such countries could create a platform for more advanced biomass energy options in the future. When managed sustainably, biomass has significant advantages over other forms of energy in non-OECD countries, including local accessibility and energy security, low carbon emissions over long timeframes and the flexibility to be converted into heat, electricity, liquid or gas at a range of commercial scales. Per unit of energy, biomass production is also more labour intensive than other energy sources and may also hold the potential to boost rural employment and reduce poverty. This report aims to inform forest and energy decision makers in non-OECD countries of key issues surrounding the biomass energy boom. It describes the advantages and challenges of biomass, how it compares with renewable alternatives, and how to develop policy frameworks that optimise its impact on poverty reduction, climate change mitigation and the preservation of ecosystem services. It seeks to stimulate interest in the topic and promote serious discussion about how the full potential of biomass energy can be harnessed in the service of national interests.

%I IIED %C London %@ 978-1-84369-792-3 %G eng %K http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/13556IIED.pdf#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M60 %1 ne/i002537/1 %2 ne-i002537-1 %4 India; Kenya; Malawi %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %0 Book Section %D 2011 %T Climatic change and seasonally dry tropical forests %A Meir, Patrick %X

Recent emphasis in research on Latin American tropical forests dominates our understanding of how seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) may respond to climatic change and also of how changes in land use and fire incidence may interact with this response. As a consequence, our analysis focuses mainly on how Latin American SDTF may interact with climate over the twenty-first century and the wider context within which this interaction may occur, especially with respect to rain forest. In Latin America, SDTFs generally occur where rainfall is less than 1600 millimeters per year and where the dry season is substantial, lasting at least 4 to 6 months during which precipitation is generally less than 100 millimeters per month (Gentry 1995). Apart from rainfall, SDTFs are also associated with specific edaphic factors, notably nutrient-rich soils (Ratter et al. 1973; Furley 1992; Vargas et al. 2008). In contrast, Neotropical savannas, while often occurring under identical climatic conditions, are found on nutrient-poor soils that are usually high in aluminum and sometimes seasonally flooded (fig. 16-1). Savannas and SDTFs are further distinguished ecologically by deciduousness, structure, and fire resistance. Savanna trees are frequently evergreen, whereas most SDTF species are deciduous or semideciduous. Savannas are open, grass-rich vegetation, whereas SDTFs have a closed canopy with few understory grasses. Without human intervention, although SDTF trees may occasionally possess fire adaptations (e.g., thick corky bark), they lack the widespread fire-resistant features above and below ground that are characteristic of the woody flora of Neotropical savannas, which frequently burn during the dry season because of the presence of flammable C4 grasses (Taiz and Zeiger 2006). While SDTF, savanna, and rain forest have complex relationships and perhaps represent points on a continuum of vegetation types, there are in general clear ecological differences between savanna and SDTF that must be taken into account when considering the effects of climate on tropical forests.

%I Island Press %@ 9781597267045 %G eng %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.5822/978-1-61091-021-7_16 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Environmental Management %D 2011 %T A conjoint analysis of landholder preferences for reward-based land-management contracts in Kapingazi watershed, Eastern Mount Kenya %A Balana, Bedru Babulo %A Yatich, Thomas %A Mäkelä, Miika %X

Unsustainable land-use decisions and agricultural practices have become the key drivers of deteriorating watershed services in developing countries. However, landholders may have little or no incentives to take these impacts into account in their decision-making process. In recent years, reward-based provision of environmental services has emerged as an important market-based incentive for motivating landholders to adopt environmentally friendly land-use changes and agricultural practices. In this regard, for instance, the Pro-Poor Rewards for Environmental Services in Africa (PRESA) project has emerged as a large network to support and facilitate reward mechanisms in Africa. However, in many African rural settings, little is known about landholder attitudes and preferences related to the alternative land-management schemes. Using locally identified sets of six key land-management attributes, this paper applies conjoint methods to evaluate landholder preferences towards alternative land-management schemes aimed at enhancing the provision of watershed services in the River Kapingazi catchment in central Kenya. Data were collected from primary sources through focus groups and a questionnaire based conjoint survey. Three conjoint models were used; a traditional conjoint ratings model, a binary logit model, and an ordered logit model. Results from the focus groups indicated that shortage of water for both domestic use and irrigation was perceived as the most acute environmental problem in the area. Deforestation, poor river bank management and agricultural practices were identified as the major causes of the problem. Results from conjoint models show that the three principal attributes influencing landholder’s ratings and probability of adopting the proposed land management options were ‘size of land area to be committed’, ‘length of contract period’, and ‘granting or prohibiting rights to harvest environmental products from the committed land’. Thus, these attributes should be the focal points in designing land-management contract for watershed services in the study area.

%B Journal of Environmental Management %I Elsevier %V 92 %P 2634-2646 %G eng %N 10 %1 ne/g008264/1 %2 ne-g008264-1 %3 3 %4 Kenya; Tanzania, United Republic of %# 000294585900035 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.06.001 %M 03014797 %0 Journal Article %J Cybernetics and Human Knowing %D 2011 %T Cybersystemic conviviality: addressing the conundrum of ecosystems services %A Ison, Ray %X

Journal article

%B Cybernetics and Human Knowing %I Imprint Academic %V 18 %P 135-141 %G eng %K http://oro.open.ac.uk/id/eprint/37381#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M88 %1 ne/g008582/1 %2 ne-g008582-1 %4 China; South Africa %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %M 0907-0877 %0 Journal Article %J Climate Dynamics %D 2011 %T Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins %A Marengo, Jose A. %A Chou, Sin Chan %A Kay, Gillian %A Alves, Lincoln M. %A Pesquero, Jose F. %A Soares, Wagner R. %A Santos, Daniel C. %A Lyra, Andre A. %A Sueiro, Gustavo %A Betts, Richard %A Chagas, Diego J. %A Gomes, Jorge L. %A Bustamante, Josiane F. %A Tavares, Priscila %X

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6A degrees C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and So Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.

%B Climate Dynamics %I Springer Verlag (Germany) %V 38 %P 1829-1848 %G eng %N 9-10 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 65 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000303448300009 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s00382-011-1155-5 %M 0930-7575 %0 Journal Article %J Climate Dynamics %D 2011 %T Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs %A Chou, Sin Chan %A Marengo, Jose A. %A Lyra, Andre A. %A Sueiro, Gustavo %A Pesquero, Jose F. %A Alves, Lincoln M. %A Kay, Gillian %A Betts, Richard %A Chagas, Diego J. %A Gomes, Jorge L. %A Bustamante, Josiane F. %A Tavares, Priscila %X

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce "present climate" - the period 1961-1990 - reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5A degrees latitude x 3.75A degrees longitude were provided at a frequency of 6 h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961-90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Niño and La Niña years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nio 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Niño and La Niña events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.

%B Climate Dynamics %V 38 %P 635-653 %G eng %N 3-4 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 46 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000299899300012 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s00382-011-1002-8 %M 0930-7575 %0 Book Section %D 2011 %T The environment, ethics and public health: The dilemmas of global warming %A Kessel, A %A Stephens, C %X

In this chapter we explore the relationship between the environment, ethics and public health (Kessel, 2006). To do this we take the theme of climate change and public health (with climate representing the natural environment), and we examine the relationship between our climatic environment and public health ethics. We illustrate the changing relationship between public health and the environment, and examine the place of ethics in the relationship between the environment and public health. In particular, we critique the status of utilitarianism as a moral foundation for public health. The importance of environmental justice, environmental philosophy and development ethics to the future of public health are discussed.

%I Cambridge University Press %@ 9780511862670 %G eng %1 ne/i003134/1 %2 ne-i003134-1 %4 Argentina; Bolivia; Brazil; Peru %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1017/CBO9780511862670 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Environmental Planning and Management %D 2011 %T Hydrological modelling of water allocation, ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in the Pongola floodplain, South Africa %A Lankford, Bruce %A Pringle, Catherine %A Dickens, Chris %A Lewis, Fonda %A Mander, Myles %A Chhotray, Vasudha %A Goulden, Marisa %A Nxele, Zibonele %A Quayle, Leo %X

The Pongola River Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (PRESPA) project quantified the economic benefits accuring to different livelihood sectors from the water resources of the Pongola floodplain, South Africa. The floodplain carries a diverse economy and ecology which is supported by flood events that once occured naturally but are now regulated by an upstream dam.

%B Journal of Environmental Planning and Management %I Taylor & Francis (Routledge) %V 54 %P 1237-1260 %G eng %N 9 %1 ne/g008213/1 %2 ne-g008213-1 %3 4 %4 South Africa %# 000299202100005 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/09640568.2011.567127 %M 0964-0568 %0 Journal Article %J Freshwater Biological Association %D 2011 %T Lake Naivasha, Kenya: ecology, society and future %A Harper, David M. %X

We examine the degradation of the natural capital and ecosystem services of an important tropical lake, Kenya's Lake Naivasha, in the context of human activities and exploitation since the mid-20th century. These factors have culminated in the recent emergence of innovative governance arrangements with potential contributions to the future sustainability of the lake ecosystem. Lake Naivasha maintains high ecological interest and biodiversity value despite its food web being controlled, at three trophic levels, by alien species for the past 40 years. The lake now has very high economic value, being the centre of Kenya’s floricultural industry, itself the top foreign exchange earner for the country. It became internationally-renowned in 1999 as one of the first wetland sites worldwide to be nominated by the government for Ramsar status as a result of local action, guided by the Lake Naivasha Riparian Association (LNRA). This led, in 2004, to gazettement by the Kenyan Government for the management of the lake by a Committee under LNRA guidance. By 2010, however, progress towards sustainable management was limited, not least because the lake water had continued to be over-exploited for irrigation, geothermal power exploration and domestic supplies outside the catchment. A prolonged drought in Kenya in 2009-10, in conjunction with this ongoing over-exploitation, caused the lake level to recede to the lowest since the late 1940s and brought the ecological degradation to global attention. Arguably, this new prominence catalysed the political interventions which now offer new hope of progress towards a sustainable lake basin.

%B Freshwater Biological Association %I Freshwater Biological Association %V 4 %P 89-114 %G eng %1 ne/i003266/1 %2 ne-i003266-1 %4 Burundi; Congo, Dem. Rep; Congo, Rep.; Ethiopia; Kenya; Malawi; Mozambique; Rwanda; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1608/FRJ-4.2.149 %0 Journal Article %J Landscape Research %D 2011 %T Local rights to landscape in the global moral economy of carbon %A van der Horst, Dan %A Vermeylen, Saskia %X

Energy policy is an increasingly influential driver for landscape change in the Global North and in rapidly industrializing nations. The renewable energy industry and the large utilities installing wind farms are increasingly powerful actors in the global economy, and their activities are giving rise to a growing number of energy-landscape conflicts. Dependent on its characteristics with regards to the local landscape and the energy system it is part of, a renewable energy project can be portrayed as representing either development or conservation, and representing either globalization or localization. By interrogating landscape as a right, and carbon as a commodity, this paper reveals a number of tensions between abstract, aggregate and top-down narratives that are typical of a globalist discourse, and more localized, contextualized and individuated concerns. We draw attention to examples of reconciliation through customized entrepreneurial activities which manage to make sense of landscape, energy and climate issues at the local level, and which can be enacted and presented through both a globalist and a local narrative. These developments illustrate that hybridity of the local and the global is yielding differential rural energy geographies, consistent with Woods's (2007) concept of global countryside.

%B Landscape Research %V 36 %P 455-470 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/i003819/1 %2 ne-i003819-1 %3 4 %4 Zambia %# 000299211000005 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/01426397.2011.582941 %M 0142-6397 %0 Journal Article %J Scientific Reports %D 2011 %T Maize grain and soil surveys reveal suboptimal dietary selenium intake is widespread in Malawi %A Chilimba, Allan D. C. %A Young, Scott D. %A Black, Colin R. %A Rogerson, Katie B. %A Ander, E. Louise %A Watts, Michael J. %A Lammel, Joachim %A Broadley, Martin R. %X

Selenium is an essential element in human diets but the risk of suboptimal intake increases where food choices are narrow. Here we show that suboptimal dietary intake (i.e. 20–30 µg Se person-1 d-1) is widespread in Malawi, based on a spatial integration of Se concentrations of maize (Zea mays L.) grain and soil surveys for 88 field sites, representing 10 primary soil types and >75% of the national land area. The median maize grain Se concentration was 0.019 mg kg-1 (range 0.005–0.533), a mean intake of 6.7 µg Se person-1 d-1 from maize flour based on national consumption patterns. Maize grain Se concentration was up to 10-fold higher in crops grown on soils with naturally high pH (>6.5) (Eutric Vertisols). Under these less acidic conditions, Se becomes considerably more available to plants due to the greater solubility of Se(IV) species and oxidation to Se(VI)

%B Scientific Reports %I Nature Publishing Group %P 72 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/i003347/1 %2 ne-i003347-1 %3 30 %4 Malawi %# 000296052000002 %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1038/srep00072 %M 2045-2322 %0 Journal Article %J Hydrobiologia %D 2011 %T Managing the natural capital of papyrus within riparian zones of Lake Victoria, Kenya %A Morrison, E. H. J. %A Upton, C. %A Odhiambo-K'oyooh, K. %A Harper, D. M. %X

The harvesting of natural products such as papyrus (Cyperus papyrus L.), whether for subsistence value or for the production of commodities intended for sale at local markets, contributes to the well-being of riparian peoples around Lake Victoria, Kenya. Serious losses of papyrus wetlands across East Africa have been reported, most of which are attributed to increasing anthropogenic stressors. Recent studies have called for restoration of these wetlands, emphasizing the need for sustainable harvesting strategies to be put in place, although few have provided suggestions as to how this might happen in practical terms and, crucially, with the consent and active participation of local communities as key stakeholders. Here we explore the socioeconomic characteristics of livelihoods based on papyrus, presenting data generated from surveys, interviews and group discussions collected at multiple sites within the Nyando river basin, Kenya. Conceptualizing papyrus stands as living stocks of natural capital, we then outline our proposal for maintaining the provisioning services of this species, without compromising the critical ecohydrological functions of these swamps as land-water buffer zones. Finally we suggest how this approach might be adapted for wider dissemination around Lake Victoria and beyond, motivated by what we believe to be the first reported case of successful papyrus restoration by a local community.

%B Hydrobiologia %I Springer Verlag (Germany) %V 692 %P 5-17 %G eng %N 1 %1 ne/i003266/1 %2 ne-i003266-1 %3 4 %4 Burundi; Congo, Dem. Rep; Congo, Rep.; Ethiopia; Kenya; Malawi; Mozambique; Rwanda; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000305215700002 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s10750-011-0839-5 %M 0018-8158 %0 Journal Article %J Ocean & Coastal Management %D 2011 %T Mapping of mangrove forest land cover change along the Kenya coastline using Landsat imagery %A Kirui, K.B. %A Kairo, J.G. %A Bosire, J. %A Viergever, K.M. %A Rudra, S. %A Huxham, M. %A Briers, R.A. %X

Mangroves in Kenya provide a wide range of valuable services to coastal communities despite their relatively small total area. Studies at single sites show reductions in extent and quality caused by extraction for fuel wood and timber and clearance for alternative land use including saltpans, aquaculture, and tourism. Such studies suggest that Kenyan mangroves are likely to conform to the general global trend of declining area but there are no reliable recent estimates of either total mangrove extent or trends in coverage for the country. The total extent of Kenyan mangroves was estimated at four points in time (1985, 1992, 2000 and 2010) using Landsat satellite imagery. Due to its medium resolution, Landsat may underestimate mangrove areas in Kenya where relatively small, linear, coastal features occur. There is also a high frequency of clouds in the coastal areas which can cause data gaps during analysis. However comparison with aerial photographs taken in 1992 showed satisfactory levels of accuracy (87.5%) and Cohen’s Kappa (0.54) validating its use in this context. These 1992 data provided an independently validated baseline from which to detect changes (fore- and hind-casted) in other periods after removing cloud coverage. We estimated total mangrove coverage in 2010 at 45,590 ha representing a loss of 18% (0.7% yr¯1) in the 25 years between 1985 and 2010. Rates of mangrove loss for Kenya varied both spatially and temporally with variations possibly due to legislative inadequacies and differences in habitat alteration patterns. Hence freely available Landsat images proved adequate to detect changes in mangroves and revealed that Kenya shows rates of decline similar to (although slower than) global estimates.

%B Ocean & Coastal Management %I Elsevier %G eng %1 ne/i003401/1 %2 ne-i003401-1 %3 19 %4 Kenya %# 000325671900004 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.12.004 %M 09645691 %0 Journal Article %J Marine Policy %D 2011 %T More than just access to fish: The pros and cons of fisher participation in a customary marine tenure (Padu) system under pressure %A Coulthard, Sarah %X

The Padu system of South Asia has received growing attention as an example of customary marine tenure that has survived despite rapid development and change throughout the region’s fisheries. This paper describes the Padu system as it functions at Pulicat lagoon, India, where it has enjoyed decades of legitimacy amongst its members, and has contributed to sustainable fishing. Recently, however, the Padu system has become unstable, driven by pressures of an expanding fishing population, reduced access to fishing grounds and a growing ‘shared poverty’. In spite of this, fisher loyalty to uphold the Padu system remains strong. This raises questions about the broader social, political and cultural meanings of Padu, which extend beyond access to a lucrative fishery. The paper highlights a trade-off between the benefits received through Padu membership at a societal level through collective action, and the individual costs of partaking in ‘shared poverty’, which is inherently distributed unequally amongst fishing families. The paper concludes with a discussion on the future of the Padu system in Pulicat, drawing from evolutionary pathways of other Padu systems in the region. It is suggested that, in the Pulicat case, the high social values attributed to the Padu system, alongside complex power structures, may hinder institutional adaptation.

%B Marine Policy %I Elsevier %V 35 %P 405-412 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/g008337/1 %2 ne-g008337-1 %3 14 %4 India; Sri Lanka %# 000287276400015 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.marpol.2010.11.006 %M 0308597X %0 Journal Article %J Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C %D 2011 %T The potential use of storm water and effluent from a constructed wetland for re-vegetating a degraded pyrite trail in Queen Elizabeth National Park, Uganda %A Osaliya, R. %A Kansiime, F. %A Oryem-Origa, H. %A Kateyo, E. %X

During the operation of the Kilembe Mines (copper mining) a cobaltiferous stockpile was constructed, which began to erode after the closure of the mines in the early 1970s. The erosion of the pyrite stockpile resulted in a large acid trail all the way to Lake George (a Ramsar site). The acid trail contaminated a large area of Queen Elizabeth National Park (QENP) resulting in the death of most of the shallow-rooted vegetation. Processes and conditions created by storm water and effluent from a constructed wetland were assessed for vegetation regeneration in the degraded QENP pyrite trail. Cynodon dactylon, Imperata cylindrica and Hyparrhenia filipendula dominated the regeneration zone (RZ) where storm water and effluent from a constructed wetland was flowing; and the adjacent unpolluted area (UP) with importance value indices of 186.4 and 83.3 respectively. Typha latifolia and C. dactylon formed two distinct vegetation sub-zones within the RZ with the former inhabiting areas with a higher water table. Soil pH was significantly higher in the RZ, followed by UP and bare pyrite trail (BPT) at both 0–15 cm and 16–30 cm depths. Soil electrical conductivity was not significantly different in the RZ and BPT but significantly higher than that in UP for both depths. For 0–15 cm depth, RZ had significantly higher concentrations of copper than BPT and UP which had similar concentrations. Still at this depth (0–15 cm), the unpolluted area had significantly higher concentrations of total phosphorus and total nitrogen than the regeneration zone and the bare pyrite trail which had similar concentrations. The RZ dominated by Typha had significantly higher concentrations of TP and TN compared to the RZ dominated by Cynodon. The concentrations of NH4–N were significantly lower in Typha regeneration zone than in CRZ at 0–15 cm depth but similar at 16–30 cm depth. At 16–30 cm depth, concentrations of copper were significantly higher in the regeneration zone followed by the bare pyrite trail and the unpolluted zone. The concentration of lead in the regeneration zone and bare pyrite trail were similar but significantly higher in the unpolluted zone. Concentrations of TP and TN were significantly higher in unpolluted zone, followed by regeneration zone and bare pyrite trail. Storm water and effluent from a constructed wetland enhanced the revegetation process by modifying soil pH, making plant growth nutrients available and by providing a steady supply of moisture necessary for plant growth. T. latifolia and C. dactylon which seem to have tolerance of high concentrations of metals were the dominant species in the regeneration zone. If storm water and effluent supply continues, the aforementioned vegetation will colonize the pyrite trail and will eventually protect QENP and Lake George from metal contamination.

%B Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C %V 36 %P 842-852 %G eng %N 14–15 %1 ne/i003266/1 %2 ne-i003266-1 %3 2 %4 Burundi; Congo, Dem. Rep; Congo, Rep.; Ethiopia; Kenya; Malawi; Mozambique; Rwanda; Tanzania, United Republic of; Uganda; Zambia %# 000296306100015 %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.pce.2011.07.065 %M 1474-7065 %0 Journal Article %J Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %D 2011 %T Poverty, sustainability and human wellbeing: A social wellbeing approach to the global fisheries crisis %A Coulthard, Sarah %A Johnson, Derek %A McGregor, J. Allister %X

The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which a social wellbeing approach can offer a useful way of addressing the policy challenge of reconciling poverty and environmental objectives for development policy makers. In order to provide detail from engagement with a specific policy challenge it takes as its illustrative example the global fisheries crisis. This crisis portends not only an environmental disaster but also a catastrophe for human development and for the millions of people directly dependent upon fish resources for their livelihoods and food security. The paper presents the argument for framing the policy problem using a social conception of human wellbeing, suggesting that this approach provides insights which have the potential to improve fisheries policy and governance. By broadening the scope of analysis to consider values, aspirations and motivations and by focusing on the wide range of social relationships that are integral to people achieving their wellbeing, it provides a basis for better understanding the competing interests in fisheries which generate conflict and which often undermine existing policy regimes.

%B Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions %I Elsevier %V 21 %P 453-463 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/g008337/1 %2 ne-g008337-1 %3 78 %4 India; Sri Lanka %# 000292177500018 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.003 %M 09593780 %0 Journal Article %J Harvard Review Of Latin America %D 2011 %T Reciprocal agreements for water: An environmental management revolution in the Santa Cruz valleys %A Asquith, N %X

September 21, 1967. A hot wind sweeps tumbleweed through the village of Alto Seco. Women peer from behind drawn shutters, to catch a glimpse of the visitors who arrived earlier in the day. They had walked slowly into the village, carrying immense backpacks. The men made camp in an abandoned house next to a waterhole, and during the evening talked to a group of 15 amazed and silent peasants: “The government has abandoned Alto Seco: you have no healthcare, no paved road, and no clean water.” “But don’t worry” said Comandante Che Guevara. “We’re here to help. We’re communists.”

%B Harvard Review Of Latin America %V 2011 %P 58-60 %G eng %K https://revista.drclas.harvard.edu/book/reciprocal-agreements-water %1 ne/i00436x/1 %2 ne-i00436x-1 %4 Bolivia %6 ESPA Programme Framework Grant %] 1 %+ Yes %0 Journal Article %J Water Resources Management %D 2011 %T Sustainable catchment managing in a climate changing world: new integrative modalities for connecting policy makers, scientists and other stakeholders %A Ison, Ray %A Collins, Kevin %A Colvin, John %A Jiggins, Janice %A Roggero, Pier Paolo %A Seddaiu, Giovanna %A Steyaert, Patrick %A Toderi, Marco %A Zanolla, Chiara %X

This paper characterises some of the main issues confronting water-catchment managing in a climate-changing world and addresses wide-spread concerns about the lack of connectivity between science, policy making and implementation. The paper’s arguments are ‘framed’ within a paradigm of systemic and adaptive governing, regulating, planning and managing understood as a nested systemic hierarchy. It is argued that climate change adaptation is best understood as a coevolutionary dynamic, principally, but not exclusively between human beings and the biophysical world. Two forms of ‘knowledge brokerage’ based on mode 1 (knowledge) and mode 2 (knowing) are distinguished with practical implications. Drawing on extensive research by the authors, eight modalities for enacting ‘knowledge brokerage’ are introduced. The conditions for or against success in employing these modalities are described. Consistent with the views of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Report 2007, it is argued that water managing is a paradigmatic domain for making climate change adaptation ‘real’ and a systemic issue of global concern at the core of sustainable development.

%B Water Resources Management %I Springer Verlag (Germany) %V 25 %P 3977-3992 %G eng %N 15 %1 ne/g008582/1 %2 ne-g008582-1 %3 42 %4 China; South Africa %# 000297837400002 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s11269-011-9880-4 %M 0920-4741 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of River Basin Management %D 2011 %T Water governance and river basin management: comparative experiences from Nigeria and Tanzania %A Franks, Tom %A Bdliya, Hassan %A Mbuya, Lawrence %X

The paper compares and contrasts approaches to river basin management in Nigeria and Tanzania. Working from a water governance perspective, the paper discusses the resource base in each catchment, looking separately at both material (physical) and non-material (infrastructural) resources. It then goes on to describe how these resources are drawn on to develop mechanisms for water governance and basin management. Significant changes have taken place in both basins over the recent past and are still continuing. The paper analyses these changes in terms of outcomes for the people in the basins and for ecosystems.

%B International Journal of River Basin Management %I Taylor & Francis: STM, Behavioural Science and Public Health Titles %V 9 %P 93-101 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/i003010/1 %2 ne-i003010-1 %4 Nigeria; Tanzania, United Republic of %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/15715124.2011.591292 %M 1571-5124 %0 Journal Article %J New Phytologist %D 2010 %T Amazonian rain forests and drought: response and vulnerability %A Meir, Patrick %A Woodward, F. Ian %X

Natural variation in moisture availability affects the productivity of tropical ecosystems more profoundly than any other climatic variable. As a result, drought is perhaps the most important climatic threat to tropical forests. Climate-change scenarios for the 21st century have suggested decreased soil-moisture availability in certain regions of the world (Bateset al., 2008). Notably, the rain forests of Amazonia have been considered to be at particular risk, especially when possible climate impacts are examined alongside an increased incidence of land-use change (Scholze et al., 2006; Soares-Filho et al., 2006; Malhi et al., 2008).

%B New Phytologist %I Wiley-Blackwell %V 187 %P 553-557 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 33 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000280122500001 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03390.x %M 0028646X %0 Book %D 2010 %T China ecosystem services for poverty alleviation - Situation analysis and research strategy %A Dianxiong, Cai %A Yan, Z. %A Zhang, Q. %A Zhang, L. %A Bubb, P.J. %X

This book presents key findings of a situation analysis and research strategy for ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in China, which was commissioned by the ESPA Programme of three UK organizations (NERC, ESRC and DfID) in 2007. Chapter 1 summarizes knowledge on poverty and ecosystem services in China. Chapter 2 examines decision making and drivers of change for ecosystems and poverty. Chapter 3 is a case study from the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. Chapter 4 identifies challenges and research needs, and chapter 5 presents a capacity development strategy. - See more at: http://www.espa.ac.uk/publications/china-ecosystem-services-poverty-alleviation-situation-analysis-and-research-strategy#sthash.sPEHcyEY.dpuf

%I China Agricultural Science and Technology Press %C Beijing %@ 978-7511601698 %G eng %K http://www.nerc.ac.uk/research/funded/programmes/espa/final-report-china-casestudy/#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M73 %1 ne/i004440/1 %2 ne-i004440-1 %4 China %6 ESPA Partnership and Project Development %] 1 %+ No %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Management %D 2010 %T Conservation, conflict and the governance of fisher wellbeing: Analysis of the establishment of the Gulf of Mannar National Park and biosphere reserve %A Bavinck, Maarten %A Vivekanandan, Vriddagiri %X

This article examines one MPA-the Gulf of Mannar National Park and Biosphere Reserve-located in southern India, and four types of social conflict that have surrounded its establishment. Taking the strength of wellbeing aspirations as point of departure, we focus on two themes: the implications of MPA embeddedness in wider societal systems, and the consequences of natural and social variety for governance. We conclude first of all that conflict resolution depends on MPA authorities' willingness to engage with the interferences that emerge from outside the MPA area. Secondly, we point out the varying wellbeing aspirations of the population and the need to develop governance partnerships. The latter are argued to contribute to more balanced decision making, as well as to a greater appreciation among the target population of the 'fairness' of MPA policy.

%B Environmental Management %I Springer Verlag (Germany) %V 47 %P 593-602 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/g008337/1 %2 ne-g008337-1 %3 10 %4 India; Sri Lanka %# 000289366400008 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s00267-010-9578-z %M 0364-152X %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Water Resources Development %D 2010 %T Coping with rainfall variability: Dry spell mitigation and implication on landscape water balances in small-scale farming systems in semi-arid Niger %A Barron, Jennie %A Enfors, Elin %A Cambridge, Howard %A Moustapha, Adamou M. %X

Rainfall variability and inherent dry spells are a reality with severe implications for smallholder agro-ecosystems in semi-arid Sahel. To increase both on- and off-farm biomass production and productivity is challenging with these climate-induced temporal and spatial variations of water. This paper tests the idea that increased vegetation through tree cover may impact water balance in a water-stressed landscape: South-east Niger. Local rainfall data, farming systems data and a landscape water-modelling tool (ArcSWAT) are used. Four production domains (conventional or fertilized combined with millet crop or millet crop plus trees) were assessed for long-term yield and landscape water balance impacts. The dry-spell analysis shows a frequency of dry spells less than 14 days is in the order of one to two dry-spell events per season in 7 years out of 10 years. The occurrence has increased between 1960 and 2004, despite a slight recovery of total annual rainfall amounts since the severe droughts of the 1980s. Results of modelled millet yields and landscape water balances suggest that options exist to enhance landscape productivity. With marginal inputs of fertilizer, millet yields increased fivefold to 2.0-2.4tha-1, and water productivity improved from 6,000 to 12,000m3 actual evapotranspiration (ETa) t-1 grain, to an improved 1,700-3,000m3 ETa t-1 grain. In addition, 10% tree cover in combination with fertilized millet increased yield with marginal or no impact on water partitioning and flows in the landscape. The policy opportunities are complex and urgently needed in view of increased rainfall variability due to expected climate change. To develop sustainable pathways in these landscapes dominated by poor smallholder framers requires water managers to be more innovative and go beyond water resources alone.

%B International Journal of Water Resources Development %I Taylor & Francis (Routledge) %V 26 %P 543-559 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/g008116/1 %2 ne-g008116-1 %3 4 %4 Algeria; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Chad; Eritrea; Gambia, The; Mali; Mauritania; Niger; Nigeria; Senegal; South Sudan; Sudan %# 000284632100003 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1080/07900627.2010.519519 %M 0790-0627 %0 Journal Article %J Ecological Economics %D 2010 %T Ecuador's Yasuní-ITT Initiative: The old and new values of petroleum %A Rival, Laura %X

This article examines the financial mechanism currently known as the Yasuni-ITT Initiative by which Ecuador would be compensated for not exploiting the reserves of heavy crude lying underneath the Yasuni National Park a Biosphere Reserve for Humanity located in the Amazon Region An analysis of the ways in which the proposal is being debated is offered to illustrate the unique problems posed by the incorporation of natural capital in economic decisions. A focus on the creative measurements and calculations offered by a range of social actors highlights the relevance of morally framed evaluations in defining the future economic use of the park. I show how an anthropological perspective may complement ecological economics and various political and economic approaches to development policy and enrich our understanding of the specific challenges posed by the design of economic instruments for the protection of ecological wealth in Latin American countries poor in financial capital but rich in biological diversity.

%B Ecological Economics %I Elsevier %V 70 %P 358-365 %G eng %N 2 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 27 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000285128300023 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.09.007 %M 09218009 %0 Journal Article %J Environmental Management %D 2010 %T An estimation of the effects of China’s priority forestry programs on farmers’ income %A Liu, Can %A Lu, Jinzhi %A Yin, Runsheng %X

In the late 1990s, the Chinese government initiated some new programs and consolidated other existing ones of ecological restoration and resource development in its forest sector, and renamed them as "Priority Forestry Programs," or PFPs. They include the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP), the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin (DCBT), the Shelterbelt Development Program (SBDP), and the Wildlife Conservation and Nature Reserve Development Program (WCNR). In addition to improving the environmental and resource conditions, a frequently reiterated goal of these PFPs is to increase rural households' income, therefore discussing why looking at rural household income impacts might be an important part of forest program evaluation. Thus, an interesting and important question is: How has implementing the PFPs affected the farmers' income and poverty status? This article addresses this question using a fixed-effects model and a panel dataset that covers 1968 households in four provinces for ten consecutive years (1995-2004). The empirical evidence indicates that their effects are mixed. The SLCP, the SBDP, and the NFPP have made positive impact and, by far, the SLCP has the largest effect. But the WCNR and the DCBT still have not had a pronounced overall effect due to their short time span of execution, even though they may have exerted certain influence at the margin. Notably, the impact of the WCNR, if any, is negative.

%B Environmental Management %I Springer Verlag (Germany) %V 45 %P 526-540 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/g008280/1 %2 ne-g008280-1 %3 27 %4 China %# 000275789700010 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/s00267-010-9433-2 %M 0364-152X %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Applied Ecology %D 2010 %T How can ecologists help realise the potential of payments for carbon in tropical forest countries? %A Baker, Tim R. %A Jones, Julia P. G. %A Rendón Thompson, Olivia R. %A Cuesta, Rosa Maria Roman %A del Castillo, Dennis %A Aguilar, Ivis Chan %A Torres, Jorge %A Healey, John R. %X

1. There is great interest among policy makers in the potential of carbon-based payments for ecosystem services (PES) to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and protect forests in tropical countries. We discuss the contributions that ecologists can make to the interdisciplinary research required to inform the design of these initiatives.

%B Journal of Applied Ecology %I Wiley-Blackwell %V 47 %P 1159-1165 %G eng %N 6 %1 ne/g00840x/1 %2 ne-g00840x-1 %3 21 %4 Peru %# 000283983200001 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01885.x %M 00218901 %0 Book Section %D 2010 %T Integrating agroecology with Payments for Ecosystem Services in Santa Catarina's Atlantic Forest %A Schmitt, A %A Farley, J %A Alvez, J %A Alarcon, G %A Rebollar, P %X

There are no longer acceptable trade-offs between agriculture and ecosystem services: Both are essential and at risk. Agroecology may be uniquely capable of providing both. However, there are real costs to promoting agroecology that someone must pay, but any payment scheme must recognize that many of the services provided as well as the resources required to provide them are both public goods. Payments to individual farmers do little to provide these services, especially if they are contingent upon provision. Public sector investments are required. Since the public goods provided by these investments cross political boundaries, payments for these investments should flow from those governments or collective institutions that benefit to those that will provide the services, supplementing resources invested by the latter.

%I Springer Verlag %@ 978-9400751750 %G eng %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.1007/978-94-007-5176-7_17 %0 Journal Article %J New Phytologist %D 2010 %T Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change %A Galbraith, David %A Levy, Peter E. %A Sitch, Stephen %A Huntingford, Chris %A Cox, Peter %A Williams, Mathew %A Meir, Patrick %X

The large-scale loss of Amazonian rainforest under some future climate scenarios has generally been considered to be driven by increased drying over Amazonia predicted by some general circulation models (GCMs). However, the importance of rainfall relative to other drivers has never been formally examined. Here, we conducted factorial simulations to ascertain the contributions of four environmental drivers (precipitation, temperature, humidity and CO2) to simulated changes in Amazonian vegetation carbon (Cveg), in three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) forced with climate data based on HadCM3 for four SRES scenarios. Increased temperature was found to be more important than precipitation reduction in causing losses of Amazonian Cveg in two DGVMs (Hyland and TRIFFID), and as important as precipitation reduction in a third DGVM (LPJ). Increases in plant respiration, direct declines in photosynthesis and increases in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) all contributed to reduce Cveg under high temperature, but the contribution of each mechanism varied greatly across models. Rising CO2 mitigated much of the climate-driven biomass losses in the models. Additional work is required to constrain model behaviour with experimental data under conditions of high temperature and drought. Current models may be overly sensitive to long-term elevated temperatures as they do not account for physiological acclimation.

%B New Phytologist %I Wiley-Blackwell %V 187 %P 647-665 %G eng %N 3 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 98 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000280122500011 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03350.x %M 0028646X %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Climatology %D 2009 %T Assessments of moisture fluxes east of the Andes in South America in a global warming scenario %A Soares, Wagner Rodrigues %A Marengo, Jose Antonio %X

The HadRM3P regional model from the UK Hadley Centre has been used to assess the moisture flux and the low-level jet (LLJ) east of the Andes in South America over two time periods: the first can be understood as the current climate and covers the period from 1980 to 1989; the second covers the period from 2080 to 2089 under a future global warming climate as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. The results are analyzed considering the vertically integrated moisture transport in the lower atmosphere and the moisture flux between the two core areas of South America - the Amazon Basin and the La Plata River Basin. In order to analyze the moisture transport east of the Andes, composites of South American LLJs were built based on the wind speed and vertical wind shear following the modified Bonner criteria 1 used to define LLJs. Integrations along the lateral boundaries of the two basins show that there could be a more intense moisture transport from tropical regions available to feed the mesoscale convective systems in the subtropical La Plata Basin in the IPCC A2 scenario, as compared to the present. This is because of the intense flow to the south associated with a faster LLJ bringing more moisture from the Amazon Basin Southwards. It was also observed that the presence of the LLJ affects moisture convergence in the Amazon Basin in the current climate as well as in the warmer climate. In the future high-emission scenario A2, a more intense LLJ in a global warming climate suggests increased moisture transport from north to south east of the Andes as compared to the present.

%B International Journal of Climatology %I Royal Meteorological Society %V 29 %P 1395-1414 %G eng %N 10 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 22 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000269401000005 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/joc.1800 %M 08998418 %0 Journal Article %J Water Science & Technology %D 2009 %T Building learning catchments for integrated catchment managing: designing learning systems based on experiences in the UK and South Africa %A Collins, Kevin %A Colvin, John %A Ison, Ray %X

We examine challenges and opportunities for developing 'learning systems' for integrated catchment managing (ICMg) drawing on our experiences in two contexts: UK and South Africa (SA). Our research question is: what is it that we would have to experience to claim that a catchment was a learning catchment? We suggest that any valid answer to this question will arise in social relations in context-determined ways. From this perspective ICMg is an emergent 'performance' of stakeholders engaged in mutual action, or social learning (SL), in which understandings and practices are transformed in situation improving ways. These questions are relevant given recent reviews suggesting that implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is not nurturing adaptive management. Our European and SA experiences demonstrate that it is possible to invest in social learning as a governance mechanism for water managing, but key constraints exist. Our SA work based on (i) appreciating the situation, especially the history, and (ii) contextual appreciation and design of learning systems (as a result of (i)) is described in response to these constraints. We conclude that more attention on developing an effective praxis for ICMg is required.

%B Water Science & Technology %I IWA Publishing %V 59 %P 687 %G eng %N 4 %1 ne/g008582/1 %2 ne-g008582-1 %3 12 %4 China; South Africa %# 000263933200008 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No %R 10.2166/wst.2009.889 %M 0273-1223 %0 Journal Article %J International Journal of Climatology %D 2009 %T Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system %A Marengo, J. A. %A Jones, R. %A Alves, L. M. %A Valverde, M. C. %X

Using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system this study analyses the distribution of extremes of temperature and precipitation in South America in the recent past (1961 - 1990) and in a future (2071 - 2100) climate under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emissions scenarios. The results show that for the present climate the model simulates well the spatial distribution of extreme temperature and rainfall events when compared with observations, with temperature the more realistic. The observations over the region are far from comprehensive which compromises the assessment of model quality. In all the future climate scenarios considered all parts of the region would experience significant and often different changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. In the future, the occurrence of warm nights is projected to be more frequent in the entire tropical South America while the occurrence of cold night events is likely to decrease. Significant changes in rainfall extremes and dry spells are also projected. These include increased intensity of extreme precipitation events over most of Southeastern South America and western Amazonia consistent with projected increasing trends in total rainfall in these regions. In Northeast Brazil and eastern Amazonia smaller or no changes are seen in projected rainfall intensity though significant changes are seen in the frequency of consecutive dry clays.

%B International Journal of Climatology %I Royal Meteorological Society %V 29 %P 2241-2255 %G eng %N 15 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 147 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000272896000003 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1002/joc.1863 %M 08998418 %0 Journal Article %J IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science %D 2009 %T REDD and PINC: A new policy framework to fund tropical forests as global 'eco-utilities' %A Trivedi, M R %A Mitchell, A W %A Mardas, N %A Parker, C %A Watson, J E %A Nobre, A D %X

Tropical forests are ‘eco-utilities’ providing critical ecosystem services that underpin food, energy, water and climate security at local to global scales. Currently, these services are unrecognised and unrewarded in international policy and financial frameworks, causing forests to be worth more dead than alive. Much attention is currently focused on REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) and A/R (Afforestation and Reforestation) as mitigation options. In this article we propose an additional mechanism – PINC (Proactive Investment in Natural Capital) – that recognises and rewards the value of ecosystem services provided by standing tropical forests, especially from a climate change adaptation perspective. Using Amazonian forests as a case study we show that PINC could improve the wellbeing of rural and forest-dependent populations, enabling them to cope with the impacts associated with climate change and deforestation. By investing pro-actively in areas where deforestation pressures are currently low, the long-term costs of mitigation and adaptation will be reduced. We suggest a number of ways in which funds could be raised through emerging financial mechanisms to provide positive incentives to maintain standing forests. To develop PINC, a new research and capacity-building agenda is needed that explores the interdependence between communities, the forest eco-utility and the wider economy.

%B IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science %I Institute of Physics: Open Access Journals %V 8 %P 012005 %G eng %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %3 3 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %# 000287219600006 %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ Yes %R 10.1088/1755-1315/8/1/012005 %M 1755-1315 %0 Book Section %D 2009 %T The resilience of indigenous intelligence %A Rival, Laura %X

This chapter examines some of the reasons why resilience has become such an important concept for scientists interested in developing sustainability science on a planetary scale. On the basis of two ethnographic projects, one documenting the resilience of Makushi manioc cultivation to weather extremes, the other exploring the built-in resilience of landscape restoration work, I show how local knowledge – or indigenous intelligence – fundamentally depends on learning how to learn in living environments. I conclude with a reflection on the contribution anthropology should aim at making to the development of the new science of integrated social-ecological systems. This task requires that we continue to document ethnographically and compare analytically cultures of resilience and sustainability all around the world. We also need to rethink a number of key concepts (in particular ‘value,’ ‘human agency,’ ‘intentionality,’ ‘life’ and ‘materiality’) in the light of practices and modes of living aimed at protecting the evolving maintenance of integrated social and ecological systems, as these practices both raise and attempt to answer questions which are profoundly anthropological.

%I The Royal Danish Academy of Letters and Sciences %C Copenhagen %@ 9788773043509 %G eng %K http://users.ox.ac.uk/~soca0025/files/resilience-indigenous-intelligence.pdf#..\ESPA\Data (ROS and RF)\Logframe Quality Assurance checks\Lucie\Publications QA.xlsx#Sheet1!M292 %1 ne/g008531/1 %2 ne-g008531-1 %4 Brazil; Colombia; Peru %6 ESPA Strengthening Research Capacity %] 1 %+ No