Quantitative scenario parameterisation for ecosystem service research

Authors Wilcock, S.; Dobbie, S.
Year of Publication 2016
Type of Publication Working Paper


Producing future estimates of the abundance of ecosystem service supply can help design and manage policies to encourage sustainable resource use. This manual presents a series of key stakeholder interviews designed to provide a range of plausible futures. We specifically investigate variables compatible with ARIES ecosystem services models, enabling sensitivity analyses to be conducted on existing models to produce a range of possible future ecosystem services stocks and flows. This manual was developed drawing on the experiences of the ESPA-funded ASSETS project, investigating the links between ecosystem services, food security and nutritional status at the forest-agriculture interface. By applying the methods presented here, users will (in collaboration with key stakeholders) be able to quantitatively estimate future variables that may impact on ecosystem services, including: land cover change; agriculture efficiency change; livestock efficiency change; population projection; climate change; distribution/Infrastructure efficiency change; natural resource harvest and utilisation efficiency change; and change in foresight and public understanding. The methods presented here should be of interest to researchers and practitioners seeking to create an evidence base to support ecosystem services based decision-making in data deficient areas.