ΔDIEM: Using scenarios to inform pro-poor policy-making
|Authors||Nicholls, R.; Hutton, C.; Marks, N.|
|Year of Publication||2018|
|Type of Publication||Policy and Practice Brief|
A sophisticated model now being trialled in coastal Bangladesh can help decision-makers in some of the world’s most challenging regions meet development and environmental policy targets, benefiting the many millions of poor people whose livelihoods are threatened by climate change.
This Tools and Frameworks briefing from the ESPA Deltas project describes how:
• The Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) incorporates biophysical, socioeconomic and governance processes and data, and tracks change over time to consider a range of plausible futures.
• ΔDIEM offers policy-makers valuable information on how household incomes can be affected by different interventions under a range of scenarios, offering the potential for decision-making that integrates development, environmental and poverty imperatives to better meet national and international targets.
• The model is helping to inform decision-making in Bangladesh, where the livelihoods and wellbeing of tens of millions of people in the Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna delta are threatened by ecosystem degradation and climate change.
• In a trial of the ΔDIEM tool, new polders in the south-central district of the delta region resulted in a 24% increase in agricultural production and a 25% reduction in extreme poverty. The polders were the most pro-poor of three development interventions that the team evaluated (assuming other factors remained unchanged).
• ΔDIEM has the potential to be adapted to inform decision-making in other climate-vulnerable regions, where conditions of uncertainty prevail and where there are many drivers of change.