Assessing health, livelihoods, ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in populous deltas

 

The overall aim of ESPA Deltas was to provide policy makers with the knowledge and tools to enable them to evaluate the effects of policy decisions on ecosystem services and people's livelihoods. This links science to policy at the landscape scale and engages national level policy processes that impact at a community level. Key questions included:

  • What are the key ecosystem services?
  • How and why might these change in the future?
  • What are the consequences of these changes for ecosystem services?
  • How will these affect people, particularly the poor?
  • How can policy processes utilise this science?

These questions were addressed by creating a holistic approach to formally evaluating ecosystem services and poverty in the context of changes such as subsidence and sea level rise, land degradation and population pressure in delta regions. The approach was tested and applied in coastal Bangladesh and tested conceptually in other populous deltas.

Key academic findings of the project include:

  1. Ecosystem services can support poor populations in deltas, and are especially important for the poorest and most marginalised delta residents.
  2. In the main, ecosystem services do not offer a pathway out of poverty, but rather are a basic support for subsistence living and livelihoods.
  3. Whilst climate change has a real and tangible impact on the coastal zone, up to 2050 at least, socio-economic/policy changes are likely to be more important in the sustainability of coastal Bangladesh. The future is more influenced by human choices/policy interventions than climate change, and development can play a large role in Bangladesh – which is contrary to much perceived wisdom on this topic. For example, depending solely on practice, some fisheries might either decline slightly or collapse completely within a decade. So the take-home message is that policy, planning and implementation can significantly shape the next few decades.
  4. Integrated assessment of large complex systems (deltas) and complex questions (ecosystem services and livelihoods) is feasible, and can deliver policy relevant insights.
  5. The importance of ecosystem services is likely to decrease with time as other parts of the economy grow more rapidly.
  6. The drivers of poverty on the delta front are spatially diverse including salinization and waterlogging, which impact ecosystem services directly, and in some areas a lack of transport infrastructure, which impacts access of agricultural production to markets.
  7. Absolute poverty is likely to decline to 2050, but inequality or relative disparity will persist due to stagnation in marginal areas.
  8. Beyond 2050, climate change will be more challenging for Bangladesh with faster changes including a stronger monsoon, higher sea levels, increased storminess and associated impacts such as salinization. The details of these threats will depend on near-term climate policy and resulting emissions.

The project developed the influential Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM), an integrated model which allows future trajectories of cosatal Bangladesh to be explored, including ecosystem services and livelihoods. This model will be applied for long term strategic planning processes by the Government of Bangladesh in coastal Bangladesh, leading to the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model being developed, extended and applied nationally.

 

Further information:

 

Featured image courtesy of Bangladesh Department of Disaster Management

Authors: Nahian, M.Al; Ahmed, A.; Lazar, A.N.; Hutton, C.W.; Salehin, M.; Streatfield, P.Kim
Year: 2018
Authors: Nicholls, R.; Hutton, C.
Year: 2018
Authors: Robert, N.; Craig, H.; Neil, H.Susan E.A.; Rahman, S.Mashfiqus
Year: 2018
Authors: Szabo, S.; Adger, W.Neil; Matthews, Z.
Year: 2018
Authors: Payo, A.; Lázár, A.N.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R.J.; Bricheno, L.; Mashfiqus, S.; Haque, A.
Year: 2017
Authors: Ghosh, P.; Mukhopadhyay, A.; Chanda, A.; Mondal, P.; Akhand, A.; Mukherjee, S.; Nayak, S.K.; Ghosh, S.; Mitra, D.; Ghosh, T.; Hazra, S.
Year: 2017
Authors: Hajra, R.; Szabo, S.; Tessler, Z.; Ghosh, T.; Matthews, Z.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.
Year: 2017
Authors: Hossain, M.Sawar; Dearing, J.A.; Eigenbrod, F.; Johnson, F.Amoako
Year: 2017
Authors: Nicholls, R.J.; Hutton, C.W.
Year: 2017
Authors: Hossain, M.Sarwar; Eigenbrod, F.; Johnson, F.Amoako; Dearing, J.A.
Year: 2017
Authors: Szabo, S.; Nicholls, R.J.; Neumann, B.; Renaud, F.G.; Matthews, Z.; Sebesvari, Z.; AghaKouchak, A.; Bales, R.; Ruktanonchai, C.Warren; Kloos, J.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Wester, P.; New, M.; Rhyner, J.; Hutton, C.
Year: 2016
Authors: Adams, H.; Adger, N.; Ahmad, S.; Ahmed, A.; Begum, D.; Lázár, A.N.; Matthews, Z.; Rahman, M.Mofizur; Streatfield, P.Kim
Year: 2016
Authors: Payo, A.; Mukhopadhyay, A.; Hazra, S.; Ghosh, T.; Ghosh, S.; Brown, S.; Nicholls, R.J.; Bricheno, L.; Wolf, J.; Kay, S.; Lázár, A.N.; Haque, A.
Year: 2016
Authors: Bricheno, L.M.; Wolf, J.; Islam, S.
Year: 2016
Authors: Chanda, A.; Mukhopadhyay, A.; Ghosh, T.; Akhand, A.; Mondal, P.; Ghosh, S.; Mukherjee, S.; Wolf, J.; Lázár, A.N.; Rahman, M.Munsur; Salehin, M.; Chowdhury, S.M.; Hazra, S.
Year: 2016
Authors: Szabo, S.; Brondizio, E.; Renaud, F.G.; Hetrick, S.; Nicholls, R.J.; Matthews, Z.; Tessler, Z.; Tejedor, A.; Sebesvari, Z.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; da Costa, S.; Dearing, J.A.
Year: 2016
Authors: Nicholls, R.J.; Hutton, C.W.; Lazar, A.N.; Allan, A.; Adger, W.N.; Adams, H.; Wolf, J.; Rahman, M.; Salehin, M.
Year: 2016
Authors: Szabo, S.; Hajra, R.; Baschieri, A.; Matthews, Z.
Year: 2016
Authors: Hazra, S.; Mukhopadhyay, A.; Chanda, A.; Mondal, P.; Ghosh, T.; Mukherjee, S.; Salehin, M.
Year: 2016
Authors: Hossain, M.Sarwar; Johnson, F.Amoako; Dearing, J.A.; Eigenbrod, F.
Year: 2016
Authors: Sharma, B.Mohan; Bharat, G.K.; Tayal, S.; Larssen, T.; Becanova, J.; Karaskova, P.; Whitehead, P.G.; Futter, M.N.; Butterfield, D.; Nizzetto, L.
Year: 2016
Authors: Islam, G.M.Tarekul; Islam, A.K.M.Saif; Shopan, A.Azhar; Rahman, M.Munsur; Lázár, A.N.; Mukhopadhyay, A.
Year: 2015
Authors: Clarke, D.; Williams, S.; Jahiruddin, M.; Parks, K.; Salehin, M.
Year: 2015
Authors: Whitehead, P.G.; Sarkar, S.; Jin, L.; Futter, M.N.; Caesar, J.; Barbour, E.; Butterfield, D.; Sinha, R.; Nicholls, R.; Hutton, C.; Leckie, H.D.
Year: 2015
Authors: Mukhopadhyay, A.; Mondal, P.; Barik, J.; Chowdhury, S.M.; Ghosh, T.; Hazra, S.
Year: 2015
Authors: Futter, M.N.; Whitehead, P.G.; Sakar, S.; Rodda, H.; Crossman, J.
Year: 2015
Authors: Fernandes, J.A.; Kay, S.; Hoassain, M.A.R.; Ahmed, M.; Cheung, W.W.L.; Lázár, A.N.; Barange, M.
Year: 2015
Authors: Hossain, M.Sarwar; Hein, L.; Rip, F.I.; Dearing, J.A.
Year: 2015
Authors: Sakib, M.; Nihal, F.; Haque, A.; Rahman, M.; Ali, M.
Year: 2015
Authors: Mondal, S.; Saleh, A.Fazal M.; Akanda, M.Abdur Razz; Biswas, S.K.; Moslehuddin, A.Zofar Md; Zaman, S.; Lázár, A.N.; Clarke, D.
Year: 2015
Authors: Jin, L.; Whitehead, P.G.; Sarkar, S.; Sinha, R.; Futter, M.N.; Butterfield, D.; Caesar, J.; Crossman, J.
Year: 2015
Authors: Kay, S.; Caesar, J.; Wolf, J.; Bricheno, L.; Nicholls, R.J.; Islam, A.K.M.Saif; Haque, A.; Pardaens, A.; Lowe, J.A.
Year: 2015
Authors: Whitehead, P.G.; Barbour, E.; Futter, M.N.; Sarkar, S.; Rodda, H.; Caesar, J.; Butterfield, D.; Jin, L.; Sinha, R.; Nicholls, R.; Salehin, M.
Year: 2015
Authors: Hossain, M.Sarwar; Dearing, J.A.; Rahman, M.M.; Salehin, M.
Year: 2015
Authors: Szabo, S.; Hossain, M.Sarwar; Adger, N.; Matthews, Z.; Ahmed, S.; Lázár, A.N.; Ahmad, S.
Year: 2015
Authors: Futter, M.N.; Whitehead, P.G.; , ; Sakar, S.; Rodda, H.; Crossman, J.
Year: 2015
Authors: Nicholls, R.J.; Whitehead, P.; Wolf, J.; Rahman, M.; Salehin, M.
Year: 2015
Authors: Lázár, A.N.; Clarke, D.; Adams, H.; Akanda, A.Razzaque; Szabo, S.; Nicholls, R.J.; Matthews, Z.; Begum, D.; Saleh, A.Fazal M.; Abedin, M.Anwarul; Payo, A.; Streatfield, P.Kim; Hutton, C.; Mondal, S.; Moslehuddin, A.Zofar Md.
Year: 2015
Authors: Adger, W.N.; Winkels, A.
Year: 2014
Authors: Adger, W.N.; Hodbod, J.
Year: 2014
Authors: Xu, H.; Chen, Z.; Finlayson, B.; Webber, M.; Wu, X.; Li, M.; Chen, J.; Wei, T.; Barnett, J.; Wang, M.
Year: 2013
Authors: Nicholls, R.J.; Hutton, C.W.; Lazar, A.N.; Rahman, M.M.; Salehin, M.; Ghosh, T.
Year: 2013
Authors: Adger, N.; Adams, H.
Year: 2013
Lead Principal Investigator
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Principal Investigator
Organisation: University of Exeter
Country: United Kingdom
Principal Investigator
Organisation: University of Dundee
Country: United Kingdom
Principal Investigator
Organisation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Country: United Kingdom
Principal Investigator
Organisation: East China Normal University
Country: China
Principal Investigator
Organisation: Bangladesh Uni of Engineering and Tech
Country: Bangladesh
Principal Investigator
Organisation: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
Country: India
Principal Investigator
Organisation: University of Oxford
Country: United Kingdom
Principal Investigator
Organisation: National Oceanography Centre
Country: United Kingdom
Co-Principal Investigator
Organisation: Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET)
Country: Bangladesh
Co Investigator
Organisation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: Jadavpur University
Country: India
Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: Jadavpur University
Country: India
Co Investigator
Organisation: National Oceanography Centre
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: Bangladesh Agricultural University
Country: Bangladesh
Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Essex
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Bath
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: Bangladesh Inst of Development Studies
Country: Bangladesh
Co Investigator
Organisation: Met Office
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: Ashroy Foundation
Country: Bangladesh
Co Investigator
Organisation: Bangladesh Agricultural University
Country: Bangladesh
Co Investigator
Organisation: Met Office
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Dundee
Country: United Kingdom
Co Investigator
Organisation: Bangladesh Agricultural Research Inst
Country: Bangladesh
Co Investigator
Organisation: ICDDRB
Country: Bangladesh
Co Investigator
Organisation: Aaranyak
Country: India
Co Investigator
Organisation: East China Normal University
Country: China
Project Management
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Exeter
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher Co Investigator
Organisation: Environment Agency
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher Co Investigator
Organisation: National Oceanography Centre
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher Co Investigator
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher Co Investigator
Organisation: AZTI
Country: Spain
Researcher Co Investigator
Organisation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher
Organisation: TARA
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: DU
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: BARI
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: CEGIS
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: BARI
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: National Oceanography Centre
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher
Organisation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher
Organisation: CEGIS
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: CEGIS
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: Bangladesh Uni of Engineering and Tech
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: ILS
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: ICDDR,B
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: BIDS
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher
Organisation: AF
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: University of Southampton
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher
Organisation: IHP-HELP Centre for Water Law, Policy and Science, (under the auspices of UNESCO), University of Dundee
Country: United Kingdom
Researcher
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: CEGIS
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: WARPO
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: Bangladesh Agricultural Research Inst
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: CEGIS
Country: Bangladesh
Researcher
Organisation: Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur
Country: India
Research Assistant
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Research Assistant
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Research Assistant
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Research Assistant
Organisation: IUCN, Bangladesh
Country: Bangladesh
Research Assistant
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Research Assistant
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Research Assistant
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Research Assistant
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Research Assistant
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh
Research Assistant
Organisation: BUET
Country: Bangladesh