Ecosystems under pressure can shift irreversibly, including the collapse of essential services. This project produced indices for the lower Yangtze Basin showing at a glance that unsustainable development has severely degraded the farming economy’s resource base. Time series for a range of ecosystem services show critical transitions transgressed since the 80s, especially water quality. Other time series show increasing variability which may indicate progressive losses of resilience across the whole region – meaning the area is becoming more vulnerable to storms and dry periods and also to global shocks, like commodity prices.